Where will we finish?

[BWFC_Insane]

What did you think of MK's defenders at weekend, Insano? (If you caught the match). To me, that was the sort of difference between what we have and what we need...

Yeah. And the same with Wigans who I’ve seen a few times too. Wigan are probably the best example of a side who are well drilled and organised. But I don’t think they match our ability going forwards (now) but they grind out results. Like a machine.

Sure bit has been spent on them. But I’d say that we need to have a balance. Johnston a nice player on the ball in a home game when you have lots of the ball. But he’s not the answer away at Burton. And I’m not picking on him but it’s an example of how we need a balance between the niceties and some more physical and robust defenders.

[Prufrock]

I don't disagree that the back is where we can mostly obviously improve in terms of individuals, but I don't think that's the main reason for our defensive woes. MK Dons defended far, far better than we did on Saturday, but I think that was far more about their organisation and understanding of their roles (front to back) than that they have much better individuals.

A change from 433 to 352 is a big one tactically, that alters pretty much everyone on the pitch's role, and we've had a lot of new signings. Evatt said something in the last week that implied they haven't had any tactical training on the pitch at all in Feb. On Sat, during a first-half MK Dons corner Evatt had Charles over on the touch-line and was trying to coach him in game on how we wanted to press. You could see first 25 they did not know what to do and were working it out. We started trying to press, but got played around, and so we ended up giving the middle CB free ball. They had fantastic movement pulling our centre backs and CMs all over the place, and we were caught trying to play high but with no pressure on the ball and the defenders no idea where each other were (Gethin tracked their left winger all the way to our LB at one point). We then dropped off a bit, but then the spaces in midfield were too big. For their goal you can see we're doing the same thing but the CB drops a shoulder, gets away from Charles and then he's at the heart of our defence. Big deflection, good save and they score the rebound.

I've already wanged on enough about how I think there's a tension in what we're trying to do with the shape AND the style, but even accounting for that I don't think there's anyway that happens after months of training on what's expected defensively in the new shape. You could see for that whole period we were a yard off reacting to what they did and trying to figure it out on the hoof.

Saturday to me was a game between two v good sides at this level, I'd say relatively well-matched in quality, but where one had been playing in largely the same way for years, and one had made big changes recently and was on a learning curve.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Well, tonight’s results hardly scream promotion.

Pompey 3-2 Oxford - Pompey go above us

Wednesday 5-2 Burton - Burton drew level from two down then Wednesday changed gear. They’re now fifth and only a point behind Oxford with 2 games in hand

Wycombe 3-0 Cambridge - so much for Mark Bonner’s form team. The other Wanderers are now a point behind 6th-placed Sunderland, who are 8pts clear of Bolton.

[LeverEnd]

It's not just the 6th team, it's those between us and them with more points and games in hand too. we've left it too late. However if we maintain the form of the last 10 games we'll be strong contenders next season.

[TonyDomingos]

It's not just the 6th team, it's those between us and them with more points and games in hand too. we've left it too late. However if we maintain the form of the last 10 games we'll be strong contenders next season.

Yes, let's make a statement of intent for next season. Won't do us any harm when it comes to attracting new recruits in the summer.

[officer_dibble]

Plenty of football left to play yet chaps.

[The_Gun]

I think we're now well positioned to build up another head of steam. We have a less congested schedule, and all our remaining fixtures are very winnable. We're not in any danger of getting relegated, and there's no expectation that we'll make playoffs from this point, so hopefully the players should be able to relax and play some good football.

Let's beat Gillingham on Saturday and start rolling again.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I think we're now well positioned to build up another head of steam. We have a less congested schedule, and all our remaining fixtures are very winnable. We're not in any danger of getting relegated, and there's no expectation that we'll make playoffs from this point, so hopefully the players should be able to relax and play some good football.

Let's beat Gillingham on Saturday and start rolling again.

+1. Pressure off, more time on the training pitch, less forced rotation (but still tactical options), and some six-pointers to come. We probably still won't make it but I'm expecting a good end to the season, and that to roll into a summer of (hopefully healthy) expectation.

[Mar]

I think we're now well positioned to build up another head of steam. We have a less congested schedule, and all our remaining fixtures are very winnable. We're not in any danger of getting relegated, and there's no expectation that we'll make playoffs from this point, so hopefully the players should be able to relax and play some good football.

Let's beat Gillingham on Saturday and start rolling again.

Don't be too sure on that less congested fixture schedule. We're set to play Wigan away from home on the 2nd April, however Wigan are still in contention for the FLT Final (Semis to be played 8th March). If Wigan win it directly affects the match against us giving the lads a week off and making our fixture list more congested later in the season. (FLT final is on 3rd April 2022)

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I think we're now well positioned to build up another head of steam. We have a less congested schedule, and all our remaining fixtures are very winnable. We're not in any danger of getting relegated, and there's no expectation that we'll make playoffs from this point, so hopefully the players should be able to relax and play some good football.

Let's beat Gillingham on Saturday and start rolling again.

Don't be too sure on that less congested fixture schedule. We're set to play Wigan away from home on the 2nd April, however Wigan are still in contention for the FLT Final (Semis to be played 8th March). If Wigan win it directly affects the match against us giving the lads a week off and making our fixture list more congested later in the season. (FLT final is on 3rd April 2022)

It'll be a lot less congested than 9 games in 29 days.

Wigan is interesting. I've posted about it before but basically they're in the semis next Tuesday against Sutton, so if they win that's our derby postponed. Wigan having a backlog, they already have fixtures every single midweek except three:

Tue 22 Mar - only a fortnight after that semi-final, which the police won't exactly welcome
Tue 12 Apr - three days before the Easter double-header starts, so neither manager would welcome that
Tue 29 Mar - would probably suit us, not least as it's just before their (other) big cup final...

Side note. Rotherham are in the other semi, v Hartlepool; if they get through, their league game on Sat 2 Apr will also be postponed. That happens to be against Pompey, who also happen to have lots of games to reschedule. However, it's possible we could rearrange our home game v Pompey (Sat 26 Mar but likely to be postponed for call-ups) to Sat 2 Apr.

[GhostoftheBok]

Well, tonight’s results hardly scream promotion.

Pompey 3-2 Oxford - Pompey go above us

Wednesday 5-2 Burton - Burton drew level from two down then Wednesday changed gear. They’re now fifth and only a point behind Oxford with 2 games in hand

Wycombe 3-0 Cambridge - so much for Mark Bonner’s form team. The other Wanderers are now a point behind 6th-placed Sunderland, who are 8pts clear of Bolton.

Annoying, wasn't it.

[The_Gun]

I think people have slightly overreacted to the McDons defeat. That was always going to be one of the matches we were mostly likely to lose, and I know many had us down for getting zero points there when doing end of season projections.

I can see us winning seven or eight of our remaining 11, with a few draws any maybe one or two more defeats, so between 74 and 78 points.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I think people have slightly overreacted to the McDons defeat. That was always going to be one of the matches we were mostly likely to lose, and I know many had us down for getting zero points there when doing end of season projections.

I can see us winning seven or eight of our remaining 11, with a few draws any maybe one or two more defeats, so between 74 and 78 points.

Oh it's far from over, but the odds are against us. Not just that we need to put together A Very Good Run, but we also need like five teams to fall away. You could make a case for each of them doing it, but asking half a dozen to do so is trusting to luck. We can help ourselves in some cases - Wednesday and Plymouth - but even if we blaze to 74-78 pts we would need several teams to drop points as well. Right now all the teams above us are averaging more than 1.5ppg over the season and eight of them are on course for at least 76pts.

[LeverEnd]

I think people have slightly overreacted to the McDons defeat. That was always going to be one of the matches we were mostly likely to lose, and I know many had us down for getting zero points there when doing end of season projections.

I can see us winning seven or eight of our remaining 11, with a few draws any maybe one or two more defeats, so between 74 and 78 points.

We've fairly convincingly lost the last 2 aways, and I expect we'll lose more because there's obviously still a weakness there . I never thought we'd make the playoffs, but to even have the slightest sniff is great given where we were in early Jan. There's lots to be positive about and a top 10 or even 8 finish would be excellent.

[BWFC_Insane]

I think people have slightly overreacted to the McDons defeat. That was always going to be one of the matches we were mostly likely to lose, and I know many had us down for getting zero points there when doing end of season projections.

I can see us winning seven or eight of our remaining 11, with a few draws any maybe one or two more defeats, so between 74 and 78 points.

I mean I don’t think it’s changed much but we have arguably got to win 9 from 11. A tall order regardless and I’m not sure we have quite the momentum we had a few weeks ago.

[TANGODANCER]

I mean I don’t think it’s changed much but we have arguably got to win 9 from 11. A tall order regardless and I’m not sure we have quite the momentum we had a few weeks ago.

Does the same not apply to every team? The season takes its toll without favouritism and we're probably as strong as we'll be this season at least.

[LeverEnd]

I mean I don’t think it’s changed much but we have arguably got to win 9 from 11. A tall order regardless and I’m not sure we have quite the momentum we had a few weeks ago.

Does the same not apply to every team? The season takes its toll without favouritism and we're probably as strong as we'll be this season at least.

True, but the teams with points in the bag and games in hand can afford more slip ups

[GhostoftheBok]

Gillingham will go at us hammer and tongs.

We were going to lose on this run. I expected us to put up a better showing at Mk, but we didn't so now we will need a top performance somewhere else.

We have a chance now to build momentum ahead of Wigan. The teams we have coming up are all beatable, but all have something to play for. Gillingham has improved dramatically recently and could easily beat us if we have even a minor off day. Morecambe are viewing our game almost like a derby. We need to pick up our levels.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I mean I don’t think it’s changed much but we have arguably got to win 9 from 11. A tall order regardless and I’m not sure we have quite the momentum we had a few weeks ago.

Does the same not apply to every team?

Nope; that's what form is about, which is why I'm keeping an eye on it.

On January 22nd, Sheffield Wednesday lost at Oxford, making their recent form W2 D2 L3 - 1.14ppg.
Since then, they've W7 D0 L1 (losing to Rotherham) - 2.63ppg.

They're clearly on a very good run. They have four difficult games in their final five but before they play us they have Lincoln, CAMBRIDGE, Gillingham, CHELTENHAM, WOMBLES and probably Fleetwood (TBC) so by then they might have racked up enough points to be relatively safely in the play-offs. Six straight wins from those games - fairly feasible given their opponents and form - and they'll be on 79pts with five games to spare.

All runs end but while they exist, they have a hell of an effect. Momentum and inertia are quietly huge in football.

[The_Gun]

I don't tend to disagree with you too often, DSB, but I've long been of the belief that 'momentum' is generally utter nonsense when applied in a sports context.

One of the college football writers at ESPN did a deep-dive into this topic at the end of last year, which is an interesting read if you have the time and inclination to dedicate to a lengthy US-focused piece.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/s ... rused-term