Snog, Marry, Avoid: Summer 2023 Transfer Window

[BWFC_Insane]

That then becomes a single point of failure, when you're RWB breaks their leg 2 games in. I'm much rather we improved right, left and central. Fossey was great, but done after 15 games. If we'd had him from the start of the season, he wouldn't have been back fully fit, before the end of it.

That's not to say I don't want really capable folks in each position - I do. Just not all eggs in one position.

In the system we are choosing to play your wing backs become critical - like it or not.

Obviously whatever you play very good players in key areas are critical. But wing backs are crucial because as we've seen when teams are difficult to break down your quality in those areas becomes paramount.

[Worthy4England]

That then becomes a single point of failure, when you're RWB breaks their leg 2 games in. I'm much rather we improved right, left and central. Fossey was great, but done after 15 games. If we'd had him from the start of the season, he wouldn't have been back fully fit, before the end of it.

That's not to say I don't want really capable folks in each position - I do. Just not all eggs in one position.

In the system we are choosing to play your wing backs become critical - like it or not.

Obviously whatever you play very good players in key areas are critical. But wing backs are crucial because as we've seen when teams are difficult to break down your quality in those areas becomes paramount.

I agree, they're critical. So if you can spread some of that criticality across both of them and get some improvement through the middle they become slightly less critical than if you have one side really great, the other barely passable and nowt coming through the middle.

If our great RWB is providing 50% of the chances, 30% from left and 20% through middle and the RWB gets fecked, it's more of a problem than if you're getting 40% R, 40% L and 20% middle...

[BWFC_Insane]

That then becomes a single point of failure, when you're RWB breaks their leg 2 games in. I'm much rather we improved right, left and central. Fossey was great, but done after 15 games. If we'd had him from the start of the season, he wouldn't have been back fully fit, before the end of it.

That's not to say I don't want really capable folks in each position - I do. Just not all eggs in one position.

In the system we are choosing to play your wing backs become critical - like it or not.

Obviously whatever you play very good players in key areas are critical. But wing backs are crucial because as we've seen when teams are difficult to break down your quality in those areas becomes paramount.

I agree, they're critical. So if you can spread some of that criticality across both of them and get some improvement through the middle they become slightly less critical than if you have one side really great, the other barely passable and nowt coming through the middle.

If our great RWB is providing 50% of the chances, 30% from left and 20% through middle and the RWB gets fecked, it's more of a problem than if you're getting 40% R, 40% L and 20% middle...

Yeah we're in complete agreement but I don't think we are going to sign ones for either side. The other point being that their ability to get up and down the line at pace all day long is part of making the broader system work so again when you have to play less threatening options out there you become less dangerous overall.

Something we absolutely need in those areas is real, genuine and effective pace.

I hope Evatt realises that we can't muddle through in those positions if he genuinely wants us to challenge that top 2. It probably means spending more than he'd like on a player but that's going to be necessary - I don't think (and this is what I'm saying) you can moneyball your way up from where we are.

[Worthy4England]

But if I look at the mop haired one, who I think we'd agree was pretty good, his chance creation was the same per / 90 as Sexy Kieran last season...Which is why I don't think we should just be limiting it to wing backs and certainly not just one of the two...They're both slightly behind Williams...

Surely no one's arguing Bradley couldn't get up and down at pace?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

BWFCi, you say "Wingbacks" plural. Which dude on the left side would you say is threatening to "create double figures"?

IDK. I wouldn't want to go into the season with only JDC, with all respect to him and hope for his progress. But I think singling out any signing or position as The Answer is always a big risk and slightly reductive - but especially odd in a team as systemic as us.

Per BBC, only five players got double figures for assists in League One in 22/23 (or 22/3, if you're Worthy). Two of them were aforementioned million-pound left-back Leif Davis, and his mate Wes Burns on the right of Ipswich's front three. Another two were Barry Bannan and Conor Hourihane, and the final one was Bristol Rovers striker Aaron Collins, who usefully also bagged 16 goals.

What we need, I'd argue, is not so much one genius as more output from across the board.

[Worthy4England]

^^ Amen, brother.

[BWFC_Insane]

BWFCi, you say "Wingbacks" plural. Which dude on the left side would you say is threatening to "create double figures"?

IDK. I wouldn't want to go into the season with only JDC, with all respect to him and hope for his progress. But I think singling out any signing or position as The Answer is always a big risk and slightly reductive - but especially odd in a team as systemic as us.

Per BBC, only five players got double figures for assists in League One in 22/23 (or 22/3, if you're Worthy). Two of them were aforementioned million-pound left-back Leif Davis, and his mate Wes Burns on the right of Ipswich's front three. Another two were Barry Bannan and Conor Hourihane, and the final one was Bristol Rovers striker Aaron Collins, who usefully also bagged 16 goals.

What we need, I'd argue, is not so much one genius as more output from across the board.

I'm not expecting our LWB to create as much. That's my point its why I feel we need real quality the other side given I'm not expecting us to add on the left.

It becomes a bit reductive sometimes but my argument is that the biggest difference we can make to our team's ability to gain extra points is to score more goals. We've got the strikers we've got so a higher conversion rate is unlikely. So we need to create more. Most of our ability to create chances comes via the wing backs ability to commit players, get in behind and put delivery in. The other area we can improve on is our control in the midfield and our ability to win the ball back earlier and raise tempo.

We become easier to play against if the opposition aren't worried about us stretching them in behind in wide areas. That's key for me. We lacked that ability too often last season. It places demands on the wing backs. The other option is one who can get quality into the box from all areas - drawing players out to close them down and creating spaces - whilst when opportunity is there crossing the ball and creating chances.

Its a position where for me I want to see more dynamic and exciting players arriving. Midfield the need is equal but the ability to secure those players I think is higher.

[GhostoftheBok]

Shifts in the tactical system will help.

Baxter will allow us to free up one of the back three to push forward during build up. That'll mean an additional player getting forward to make 5 attackers (usually) hitting the gaps. The change of goalkeeper will, in itself, make us slightly more creative.

We need some new players, but it's also about the system putting those players in the right positions to create/score. Too often last season the "creative" player was picking the ball up too deep, or with insufficient bodies in the box to pick out. Those are tactical rather than quality issues.

Adding quality only gets us part way to where Ipswich and Plymouth were, we also need the right types for how Evatt wants to play footy. Their systems worked better than ours going forward, because they'd had more time and/or money to get their squads right.

It's not just about whether this or that player is "better" than what we had, it's also about whether they are better suited.

[Worthy4England]

Random screengrab (core stats from Fotmob.com) - obvs Fossey's stats from previous season for us...

One thing that does stand out, for me is that the top 5 (from other clubs, played a whole lot more than most folks for us, the exception being Bradley who had a similar number of minutes...

chances etc.jpg (133.85 KiB) Viewed 431 times

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

∆ So Aaron Morley created more chances per 90 than two of the five blokes who got double-figure assists.

[Worthy4England]

∆ So Aaron Morley created more chances per 90 than two of the five blokes who got double-figure assists.

I suspect quite a lot of those are dead ball situations - not sure if the other fellas take most of the dead balls....

I mean delivering one perfectly to Big Ric's noggin, probably isn't going to get you an assist more often than not

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

∆ So Aaron Morley created more chances per 90 than two of the five blokes who got double-figure assists.

I suspect quite a lot of those are dead ball situations - not sure if the other fellas take most of the dead balls....

As has been noted many times before, goals from set pieces count just the same....

WhoScored says Davis got 7 assists from corners, Bannan 3 and Hourihane 2, while Hourihane got 3 assists from free-kicks and Bannan 1.

Wasn't doubting your data, just suggesting that perhaps just maybe the goals problem might not be all about delivery/creation... as you say, it's the dudes on the other end of the pass who decide whether it's an assists or just a Chance Created.

[GhostoftheBok]

it's the dudes on the other end of the pass who decide whether it's an assists or just a Chance Created.

It's also the quality of the chance.

[Worthy4England]

it's the dudes on the other end of the pass who decide whether it's an assists or just a Chance Created.

It's also the quality of the chance.

It is, but I'd expect to see better results making chances for Ladapo / Chaplin than Dion + Excuses.

Similarly, I might expect that Dion + Other, might have grabbed a few more being fed by Burns/Davis - just for a bit of balance...

[GhostoftheBok]

It is, but I'd expect to see better results making chances for Ladapo / Chaplin than Dion + Excuses.

Similarly, I might expect that Dion + Other, might have grabbed a few more being fed by Burns/Davis - just for a bit of balance...

I don't think Ladapo is more of a natural goal scorer than Dion.

When Ipswich's system wasn't working well Chaplin scored 8 non-penalty goals in 39 starts. Ladapo scored 11 in 30-odd at Rotherham.

These are very good players for the level (Chaplin especially is a beautiful technician), but they're in a system that is working at its fluid best. They've been put in roles that suit them and been given easy chances to put away time and again.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

it's the dudes on the other end of the pass who decide whether it's an assists or just a Chance Created.

It's also the quality of the chance.

Don’t bring xG into it, there’ll be cars aflame

[GhostoftheBok]

Don’t bring xG into it, there’ll be cars aflame

Oh god no. xG is ridiculous witchcraft and clearly nonsense.

I'm talking about xA...

[Worthy4England]

It is, but I'd expect to see better results making chances for Ladapo / Chaplin than Dion + Excuses.

Similarly, I might expect that Dion + Other, might have grabbed a few more being fed by Burns/Davis - just for a bit of balance...

I don't think Ladapo is more of a natural goal scorer than Dion.

When Ipswich's system wasn't working well Chaplin scored 8 non-penalty goals in 39 starts. Ladapo scored 11 in 30-odd at Rotherham.

These are very good players for the level (Chaplin especially is a beautiful technician), but they're in a system that is working at its fluid best. They've been put in roles that suit them and been given easy chances to put away time and again.

I've just looked at Chaplin's goals reel from last season. Not sure his chances were noticeably easier than ours..like most strikers there's a couple of gimmies, but aside from that...dunno..

[GhostoftheBok]

I've just looked at Chaplin's goals reel from last season. Not sure his chances were noticeably easier than ours..like most strikers there's a couple of gimmies, but aside from that...dunno..

We'll have to disagree there, but equally we're talking about volume. Highlight reels don't show you the misses. Ipswich created more chances and they also took 261 more shots than we did (related, I'd suggest). Chaplin took 158 shots vs Dion's 78. Dion put 47.4% on target to Chaplin's 33.5%. Ladapo closer to Dion with 46% on target having taken 102 shots.

[BWFC_Insane]

Perhaps we could start coming up with the right wing backs who can make that difference for us? Pace. Running. Quality delivery. A record of doing it too.

So who is out there?