Where will we finish?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I don't tend to disagree with you too often, DSB, but I've long been of the belief that 'momentum' is generally utter nonsense when applied in a sports context.

One of the college football writers at ESPN did a deep-dive into this topic at the end of last year, which is an interesting read if you have the time and inclination to dedicate to a lengthy US-focused piece.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/s ... rused-term

Cheers. I'll bookmark and try to overcome my aversion to US sports.

I'd say momentum is a huge part of psychology. And I'm fairly sure that exists...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Recent-form extrapolation time: we’re still not hitting the play-offs.

We’re heading towards somewhere between 74pts (on last-6 and last-8 form) and 77pts (last-12 form), but the current pace suggests that it will take 80+ points to be in the play-offs. On last-six form, Plymouth, Oxford and Wednesday will all hit 83pts, but they’d still be behind the top three plus Pompey, who are on an absolute tear with 16pts from the last 18 possible.

However, as ever, it’s more complicated than that: they quite simply can’t all keep that pace, because there’s loads of six-pointers left. On another thread, KP said:

On the subject of Tuesday fixtures, yes we need a win to maintain the status quo but looking at next Saturdays line ups there are some tasty fixtures which will certainly see some movement. Big big week.

The polisher is spot on. We can't afford slip-ups, we have to keep the hammer down, but we also need others to drop points and Saturday could be big for that.

Bolton-Plymouth - a six-pointer
Ipswich-Pompey - they can't both win
Wycombe-Rotherham - hope Rotherham can beat Wycombe at their own game

It's also McDons- Wigan, which is a sizeable old game, if almost certainly above our station

Then on Tuesday, it’s Plymouth-Pompey, which again they can’t both win.

Then on Saturday 19th, it’s Pompey-Wycombe and Oxford-Ipswich. And on it goes: every weekend there’s at least one game between the 4th-11th teams, usually two or more, with the top 3 also facing those chasers too.

COYWM.

[Prufrock]

Have I followed it right and there's a decent chance we'd play Wigan a few days before their cup final (assuming they got there)?

Think I might begrudgingly want them to beat McDons then as I think Wigan are going up already and better up have it in the bag when they play us so they're more likely to rest people.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Have I followed it right and there's a decent chance we'd play Wigan a few days before their cup final (assuming they got there)?

There's a chance; not sure how decent.

Tue 29 Mar, the midweek before the derby is scheduled (which is the day before the Sherpa Sh¡tshow final) is one midweek they have free.

But they also have Tue 22 Mar free. That's only a fortnight after their cup semi so I don't know whether the dibble would be best pleased; that said, I also don't know how much sway they have these days. Even in the 80s/90s they pushed replays back from three days' notice to 10 days' notice, not a fortnight.

The other midweek option they have is to play either side of the Easter double-header. They're free on Tue 12 Apr, which is three days before everyone in the division plays on Good Friday, so it would then be the second match in a Sat-Tue-Fri-Mon sequence for them. Or they could play the midweek *after*, which would make it Sat-Fri-Mon-?Wed/Thu?-Sat. They could push back the second Saturday (vs Plymouth) to Sunday, but then they're playing Pompey on Tuesday so they'd have to push that back a day too. It's all doable, but it's a big logistical faff, and a big ask on the squad too.

[Worthy4England]

Still no....

070322.jpg (61.73 KiB) Viewed 619 times

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Given their respective recent form, Sunderland above Wednesday is a big call... you might have to show your working out

[Worthy4England]

Given their respective recent form, Sunderland above Wednesday is a big call... you might have to show your working out

Quite. But we're still 9th

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Given their respective recent form, Sunderland above Wednesday is a big call... you might have to show your working out

Quite. But we're still 9th

That'll be you thinking we're only gonna win 5 of the last 10, Chirpy-Chops

[Worthy4England]

Given their respective recent form, Sunderland above Wednesday is a big call... you might have to show your working out

Quite. But we're still 9th

That'll be you thinking we're only gonna win 5 of the last 10, Chirpy-Chops

Well you can have us winning 8 and still not getting enough points!

[Bruce Rioja]

Have you a link, Worthy? I have an unexpectedly quiet rest-of-afternoon

[Worthy4England]

Have you a link, Worthy? I have an unexpectedly quiet rest-of-afternoon

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_cal ... eague-one/

Just as a reminder, if team missed a game in wk23, the blank fixture is in wk 23....So just look for all the weeks marked in bold at the top.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Well you can have us winning 8 and still not getting enough points!

Yeah, as I say, 78pts might not do it... especially if the points dropped are against rivals. Better to beat Wednesday than Wigan. Hopefully putting a spoke in others' wheels might knock them off their stride and send them into a tailspin, if you'll forgive the mixed metaphors.

In fact, on my first go I've got us getting 81pts (by beating everyone bar Wigan) and still not making it...
.

go 1.jpg (32.33 KiB) Viewed 589 times

[Bruce Rioja]

My top six.

1 Rotherham United 101
2 Wigan Athletic 99
3 Milton Keynes Dons 87
4 Sunderland AFC 83
5 Wycombe Wanderers 82
6 Bolton Wanderers 80

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Second go. Went back and followed some simple rules which seem fair enough to me:

• Sides in top 3 win all their games except they draw with each other
• Sides from 4th to 11th win all their games except they draw with each other and lose against the top 3, because they're better, and lose against Bolton, because we're by far the greatest team the world has ever seen (and bang on form, and at home in the crunch games)
• Bolton win every game bar losing to Wigan

Result:
.

go 2.jpg (33.71 KiB) Viewed 582 times

.
Bugger! Looks like we're gonna have to win at Wigan, or hope someone loses to a bottom-half team.

[officer_dibble]

If we get 81 points we’re finishing in the top 6. I’ll take it!

[Worthy4England]

I think the point is, whilst the mythic maths tells us this is possible "coz some of them have to play each other," there feels like a lot if perms where it won't matter...

[Prufrock]

PPG still seems the best base line to me this far in. I think that has Plymouth in 6th on a rounded-up 80. It's a big ask. But one where if we get to 80 there's a decent chance at least one of Plymouth/Weds won't.

[officer_dibble]

Just looking at final league tables for the last ten years and 80 points is comfortably play offs…theres as low as 69 making 6th. Mean seems to be around 73/74 points. 80 points and we’ll shit it! I think 78 will do it, 75 at a push.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Just looking at final league tables for the last ten years and 80 points is comfortably play offs…theres as low as 69 making 6th. Mean seems to be around 73/74 points. 80 points and we’ll shit it! I think 78 will do it, 75 at a push.

Yeah. I just think this season there's a few teams on a tear right now and that means it looks like it'll be a higher bar, but the next month should shake it down a little.

[Worthy4England]

Just looking at final league tables for the last ten years and 80 points is comfortably play offs…theres as low as 69 making 6th. Mean seems to be around 73/74 points. 80 points and we’ll shit it! I think 78 will do it, 75 at a push.

Yeah. I just think this season there's a few teams on a tear right now and that means it looks like it'll be a higher bar, but the next month should shake it down a little.

There is not one year in the last 10, where the team currently in 6th is on 62 points (which is where Plymouth would be if they won their next game). The average after 35 games for the team in 6th is 55 (54.. They then typically put on an average of 18.55 points. which would mean the bar is nearer 80 (on averages)...

Sorry