League One, 2022/23

[BWFC_Insane]

Sure - Plymouth player wages and salaries in their 2022 accounts £5.4m. Out player wages and salaries in the accounts from a year earlier £5m - we haven't published our 2022 numbers yet...

Hence their fans calling themselves "Loan FC."

The issue is it's not sustainable. They've used the loan market very well indeed, but then their best player gets recalled and suddenly there is a scramble to once again find a star on no budget - having not made anything towards your infrastructure either.

I've been very impressed with their work this season, but I'd rather be us over the next 4-5 years.

Not if they go up.

This is where I think people need to get a bit real about football and what it is. This notion that we build a young side with resellable value and in the long term in pays off might work for a business model if you are Crewe. It might even work if you manage to match that with on field investment and success.

But the idea that Bolton Wanderers are sustainable as a league one side for very long is nonsense. We have a great crowd right now. But two seasons time still in league one and you can bet that won't be the case. Especially if as would be necessary we've sold more of our better players and still are not able to go up.

In football now you need to be delivering in the here and now. Because there is no prospect for long term planning UNLESS that is allied to significant money. All the examples people will throw out of 'projects' are all basically backed in one way or another by money that has at one point or another exceeded their competition.

The value for players being chucked around is also ridiculous. Even if we go up nobody is paying £1M for any of our defenders - not immediately - they'd need to look really really good in that league to fetch that. Because I really rate Johnston - massively so and think Toal is a huge prospect but the clubs that might want those are going to wait for their contracts to run down and try and get them on the cheap. Or on a free. They aren't going to attract the more money than sense clubs - not right away. Which severely limits their value.

We've sold Dapo who many claimed was £2M player or even more for it seems an initial £0.5M or thereabouts. I suspect that's a bit under what is ideal. But he has 18 months on his contract and was running it down. We weren't going to get more value.

The same goes for Morley - when it gets to the point that clubs are actively wanting him we'll probably get far less than he's worth now and we are probably overvaluing players a bit too.

Our most successful period in our history wasn't build on a project but on scraping the bottom of barrels and maximising that talent year on year against the odds until we had the ability to bring in significant investment. Yes it then became unsustainable.

And no I don't want an ED unsustainable situation again and that may well limit where we can get to.

But I'm completely convinced and 100% sure that if we aren't signing the best possible players for now, regardless of long term viability, age, loans or whatever that its a massive mistake. And by now I mean any time. We got promoted to the premiership off the back of the likes of Ian Marshall. It wasn't a project. But the end result was huge huge money for the club. I'm concerned we end up modelling ourselves on championship and premiership clubs with money trying to build this ideal recruitment pattern to fit a business model that simply doesn't work in the realities of league one football. Loans and older players may be short termism. But if the result of that is success and extra income then you have more resources to sort the problem out. Like going up to the premiership with Ian Marshall and Colin Hendry wasn't ideal. But then we added Bruno and Djorkaeff eventually.....so.....Whereas Preston, the project side with solid plan to produce and evolving team of assets...never made it.....

[Worthy4England]

Sure - Plymouth player wages and salaries in their 2022 accounts £5.4m. Out player wages and salaries in the accounts from a year earlier £5m - we haven't published our 2022 numbers yet...

Hence their fans calling themselves "Loan FC."

The issue is it's not sustainable. They've used the loan market very well indeed, but then their best player gets recalled and suddenly there is a scramble to once again find a star on no budget - having not made anything towards your infrastructure either.

I've been very impressed with their work this season, but I'd rather be us over the next 4-5 years.

Does it start to get sustainable, if they go up and pocket cash. Even if they come straight down again? Our funding from EPL 2019-22 was about £4.5m - £1.4m per annum, if I look at a team like "Luton" (picked at random, but one div up) they got £15.7m over the same timeframe - £5.2m per annum. Then there's increased TV money to get Luton a league distribution pf ~£9.5m - so just spending a year one Div up could net you £5/6m...That's a few Santos', Johnston's etc. at £1m each...

Edit: Pretty much what Insano said...

[BWFC_Insane]

Or just read worthy's post which distills my incoherent rambling into 4 lines of simple cold hard fact!

Also to add to that the £1M you get for a player isn't pure profit unless you intend not to spend any of it on a replacement. Which again comes back to - if we are Crewe we are screwed as the size of this club simply isn't sustainable with a Crewe model.

[Worthy4England]

Or just read worthy's post which distills my incoherent rambling into 4 lines of simple cold hard fact!

Also to add to that the £1M you get for a player isn't pure profit unless you intend not to spend any of it on a replacement. Which again comes back to - if we are Crewe we are screwed as the size of this club simply isn't sustainable with a Crewe model.

The other factor is, at what point would Evatt say "this is taking too long"...

[BWFC_Insane]

Or just read worthy's post which distills my incoherent rambling into 4 lines of simple cold hard fact!

Also to add to that the £1M you get for a player isn't pure profit unless you intend not to spend any of it on a replacement. Which again comes back to - if we are Crewe we are screwed as the size of this club simply isn't sustainable with a Crewe model.

The other factor is, at what point would Evatt say "this is taking too long"...

Yep or anyone at the club. Players, Markham, owners, investors etc...

I also think the quality gap between L1 and Champ and Champ and Prem are so vast that the cutesy notion of building a young side with sellable assets that can keep you up is flawed. It is impossible (unless you have money) to go up with a team capable of keeping you there. Or at least very very very very unlikely. So promotion requires a significant turnaround in playing staff. So one might argue being more short-termist is actually a requirement of the current football model.

[Worthy4England]

Or just read worthy's post which distills my incoherent rambling into 4 lines of simple cold hard fact!

Also to add to that the £1M you get for a player isn't pure profit unless you intend not to spend any of it on a replacement. Which again comes back to - if we are Crewe we are screwed as the size of this club simply isn't sustainable with a Crewe model.

The other factor is, at what point would Evatt say "this is taking too long"...

Yep or anyone at the club. Players, Markham, owners, investors etc...

I also think the quality gap between L1 and Champ and Champ and Prem are so vast that the cutesy notion of building a young side with sellable assets that can keep you up is flawed. It is impossible (unless you have money) to go up with a team capable of keeping you there. Or at least very very very very unlikely. So promotion requires a significant turnaround in playing staff. So one might argue being more short-termist is actually a requirement of the current football model.

Less worried about players - I don't think we've anyone that's stand-out good, that isn't tied a while on contract...

When we're citing teams like maybe Brentford as a model, if I'm reading it right, they took from 2008 to 2021 to from T4 to T1 - 13 years (rather than 5 that IE suggested whilst already in T3). They were unloading talent for between £4-12m for a few years...We've just let one of our most saleable assets go for an alleged £0.5m

[The_Gun]

Finding a balance between long and short-termism is presumably the preferable route. We should be looking to develop/acquire assets that we can realise a profit on, whilst also having enough pragmatism to realise that loans and older players can be very useful in helping to achieve promotion. It surely doesn't have to be one extreme or the other.

At present I would say we are falling short in youth player development, but that can likely be attributed to the terrible situation we found ourselves in a few years ago. I would hope and expect we will improve in this area over the coming seasons.

[Worthy4England]

^^ That's sorta where I'm at, but the focus currently seems to be on young loanees, some of which are never likely to become perms...

[GhostoftheBok]

Does it start to get sustainable, if they go up and pocket cash. Even if they come straight down again? Our funding from EPL 2019-22 was about £4.5m - £1.4m per annum, if I look at a team like "Luton" (picked at random, but one div up) they got £15.7m over the same timeframe - £5.2m per annum. Then there's increased TV money to get Luton a league distribution pf ~£9.5m - so just spending a year one Div up could net you £5/6m...That's a few Santos', Johnston's etc. at £1m each...

Edit: Pretty much what Insano said...

There are a few issues here.

Plymouth have started off as less of a shambles than we were. They came up a year ahead of us and are thus a year ahead in their project. They've benefitted immensely from having a young goalkeeper come through their ranks who hugely increases their general squad value, whereas our youth system has been shambolic.

What Plymouth have done is defer what we are doing now in the hope of going up and they've done, as I said, exceptional work. However, they will then need to pivot next season if they do go up and their chances of staying up are much lower because of it. We've seen they have been scuppered this month by losing key parts of their squad and having to scramble to cover. Now, I think they've done well to patch those gaps; but they are playing a lower-percentage game, because they have to.

We don't have to. Our next season is Plymouth's this season. We are building a more structured squad and we should, if we continue to do good work, have a better shot at the autos next season than most.

If you're comparing Plymouth now to us now you've made a mistake, because they've had a full extra season at this level.

If they go up, pivot (using the increased revenue well) and go down, I'd expect their transfer policy that season back in League One to look much more sustainable than this season's has. They may be able to get so much money for Cooper in the summer that it bankrolls a survival push - which if anything would underline what I'm saying even more.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Finding a balance between long and short-termism is presumably the preferable route. We should be looking to develop/acquire assets that we can realise a profit on, whilst also having enough pragmatism to realise that loans and older players can be very useful in helping to achieve promotion. It surely doesn't have to be one extreme or the other.

At present I would say we are falling short in youth player development, but that can likely be attributed to the terrible situation we found ourselves in a few years ago. I would hope and expect we will improve in this area over the coming seasons.

This is all very sensible.

Far more so than the pearl-clutching and sacking-demanding that would doubtless go on if we squeak up with a poor squad and come straight back down again.

[GhostoftheBok]

Finding a balance between long and short-termism is presumably the preferable route. We should be looking to develop/acquire assets that we can realise a profit on, whilst also having enough pragmatism to realise that loans and older players can be very useful in helping to achieve promotion. It surely doesn't have to be one extreme or the other.

That's what we are currently doing.

We've "added value" as Evatt puts it, whilst also adding experienced, hard-working players to immediately set a culture and deliver performances.

We fell short in the summer, but that can happen regardless of your transfer policy.

[BWFC_Insane]

Finding a balance between long and short-termism is presumably the preferable route. We should be looking to develop/acquire assets that we can realise a profit on, whilst also having enough pragmatism to realise that loans and older players can be very useful in helping to achieve promotion. It surely doesn't have to be one extreme or the other.

At present I would say we are falling short in youth player development, but that can likely be attributed to the terrible situation we found ourselves in a few years ago. I would hope and expect we will improve in this area over the coming seasons.

This is all very sensible.

Far more so than the pearl-clutching and sacking-demanding that would doubtless go on if we squeak up with a poor squad and come straight back down again.

We had a poor squad in the championship and would have come straight back down bar a miracle. I wasn't asking for the manager to go. And yes it presents issues.

But the financial gap is such that its impossible to bridge in other ways (unless you have an owner with more money than sense) and so I think the argument I'd make is - go up any which way you can, get the best players for now to take you up and worry about the rest later.

The notion that we are progressing and next year will be where Plymouth are is nice if it actually works like that. I worry that in losing Dapo for not that much and seemingly not able to really enter the market with much money we end up in a perennial 'oh nearly we'll grow next season' scenario as we lose players for less money than we'd think yet aren't taking the route others are in recruiting the best possible (but never will be ours) loans and older experienced players to build the strongest squad to propel us out of this division.

I think there is a balance but the balance is having an academy that is effective and promoting players to the first team (cos they are good enough) at 17/18 - that's how you start to make yourself more sustainable. Because a) you need to recruit fewer as you're filling out with homegrown talent and b) that talent may well become a big sellable asset.

Yes we've heard all the arguments about academies and catchment and yes its all true. But why cant we find a USP for a Bolton Academy that attracts younger talent and nurtures it. Under old ownership I get why, but now? I think we could. And that's a route to better combined with making the first team as strong and as ready each season as possible.

[GhostoftheBok]

But the financial gap is such that its impossible to bridge in other ways (unless you have an owner with more money than sense) and so I think the argument I'd make is - go up any which way you can, get the best players for now to take you up and worry about the rest later.

The issue with this is that we could easily point to Wigan, who have done it that way AND have more money than we do and are still rock bottom.

I think it takes considerably more money to fix errors caused by short-termism and we can't afford that.

The model we have now is, just as a demonstrable fact, working. We are getting better consistently. We've just sold our "star" player from last season and are still considerably better now than we were then. That's with important players out injured.

I'm not sure why we're worried about changing our approach when it's working and we're living within our means

[BWFC_Insane]

But the financial gap is such that its impossible to bridge in other ways (unless you have an owner with more money than sense) and so I think the argument I'd make is - go up any which way you can, get the best players for now to take you up and worry about the rest later.

The issue with this is that we could easily point to Wigan, who have done it that way AND have more money than we do and are still rock bottom.

I think it takes considerably more money to fix errors caused by short-termism and we can't afford that.

The model we have now is, just as a demonstrable fact, working. We are getting better consistently. We've just sold our "star" player from last season and are still considerably better now than we were then. That's with important players out injured.

I'm not sure why we're worried about changing our approach when it's working and we're living within our means

I'm not convinced it is working. We aren't 'self sustainable' nor close to it. We aren't able to sell assets and reinvest back into the team to improve us without needing more money from up top.

We are improving league position wise but it depends on how you view the second half of last season. We came up from league two made relatively few additions, hit a brick wall, scrambled in January with some good signings and loans and hit very good form till the end.

We've not quite matched that form yet this season.

Wigan are the example but you're missing the point (and they aren't flush with money) - they are by virtue of promotion several millions of pounds better off. We'd need to sell a serious number of players to bridge that.

And then if your argument is next season we will go up and we don't you can then start to add the money from next season to the season after that we're short as a consequence of not going up to the measure of 'how sustainable is this vs a bunch of loans and older players taking us up'.

The whole approach is to me flawed UNLESS its allied to 'we need promotion' and if that is built in then I agree. But then that becomes a necessary part of making it work.

[GhostoftheBok]

I'm not convinced it is working.

We're 5th.

[BWFC_Insane]

I'm not convinced it is working.

We're 5th.

That does not mean the wider business approach (if it is as you describe) is working. Because the whole 'invest in young players, sell for profit' model so far has yielded a sale of Dapo, arguably one of our better players, for £500K. Its not disastrous but it doesn't scream to me - yeah this will sustain a club the size of Bolton and allow us to be successful on the pitch simultaneously.

And the 'we're 5th' is great. But your thesis relies on our ability to constantly improve our league position within this business model. And that's something that effectively my long post questions. Where is the evidence that will happen? Where is the evidence that having got estbalished with a squad last season, second half, that we're improving on that? We've lost Fossey, Dapo and Baka out of that squad. We've arguably replaced Bakayoko with someone now. Dapo not yet. Fossey was a loan and we have another loan.

But I'm not sensing the ease of progress from where we are now. We've got money from Dapo seemingly not being reinvested.

What's the path to improvement from here for next season within the sensible model? The quality we need up front, in wing back areas, in goal and other areas to strengthen is funded by what sale? And how is that sale replaced?

[sonicthewhite]

My take on it is that we don't want a repeat of those dark days because we go crazy spending on what we can't afford.

IF we do go up this season then one of two things would happen in the Championship. We'd either be making a good fist of it with the potential of staying up. That would mean increased income and more pocket money for Evatt to spend on players.

OR We'd be getting steam-rollered every week as the divisional whipping boys. In this case Evatt wouldn't be in charge to see out the season. Either the owners would replace him in the hope we could stay up or Evatt would "fall on his sword" and resign. There's no way he'd want a relegation on his CV.

Obviously there are a multitude of variables at play here and nothing would be as black and white as I've outlined above. But for me those would be the two likeliest scenarios to pan out.

I actually think we'll miss out this year in the play offs but carry that continuous improvement we've seen in to next season as one of the favourites. There would still be enough goodwill from the fans for Sharron and Ian but failure next season would then see the tide start to turn.

I think this is the longest post I've ever done so where's that kettle?

[GhostoftheBok]

That does not mean the wider business approach (if it is as you describe) is working. Because the whole 'invest in young players, sell for profit' model so far has yielded a sale of Dapo, arguably one of our better players, for £500K. Its not disastrous but it doesn't scream to me - yeah this will sustain a club the size of Bolton and allow us to be successful on the pitch simultaneously.

And the 'we're 5th' is great. But your thesis relies on our ability to constantly improve our league position within this business model. And that's something that effectively my long post questions. Where is the evidence that will happen? Where is the evidence that having got estbalished with a squad last season, second half, that we're improving on that? We've lost Fossey, Dapo and Baka out of that squad. We've arguably replaced Bakayoko with someone now. Dapo not yet. Fossey was a loan and we have another loan.

But I'm not sensing the ease of progress from where we are now. We've got money from Dapo seemingly not being reinvested.

What's the path to improvement from here for next season within the sensible model? The quality we need up front, in wing back areas, in goal and other areas to strengthen is funded by what sale? And how is that sale replaced?

Offer conjecture, demand evidence. It's an old song, but it remains fundamentally dishonest.

The only possible evidence of the future is the past being prologue - as is true in all things. Football doesn't have immutable laws for which we can offer proofs.

We have continually improved with the current set up (just as an objective fact, we keep going up the leagues).

When you ask for evidence that this will continue, that's what we have - a consistent record of improvement thus far, at this football club.

I'd suggest you'd need pretty strong evidence of your own to argue for a radical change; but your track record during Evatt's time here as been woeful. Players who "can't work" do work, styles which "can't work" deliver results over time, "non-league" players become key assets etc.

You're trying a less sophisticated football version of Zeno's Paradox and, as such, I point at the league tables of the last three seasons and say "I disprove you thusly."

[Prufrock]

We seem pretty obviously to be on an upward curve to me. Let's not forget not only did we only come up 18 months ago, but we started 9 months before that with no squad.

Sure there might come a point when this approach plateaus and we haven't gone up and we need a rethink. But we're miles away from that for me.

I disagree with the poster above who said we've gone backwards this window. We've improved the first XIb with Randy, we've upgraded (I think) up top with a player I think we're planning to sign in the summer with a potentially high ceiling. We've lost a very good player who didn't fit the system. Whatever the money for Dapo it's markedly less than it would have been if we'd happened to play a system getting the best out of him. Those things happen sometimes but it's unlikely to be the rule.

We've got some good players building the base of a team to compete a league up and maybe bring in cash. Along the way you use loans and bring in others who are for the here and now.

I think it's...fine??

[GhostoftheBok]

What I should probably address is this idea that my "thesis" is that Bolton can be entirely sustained through player sales in League One.

We cant. I don't know anyone who thinks we can. But building a straw man is always easier than dealing with real points.

Developing and selling players is a vital part of making us sustainable. That will still have to include promotion in the near term. We need league, tv, ticket and player sales income to keep a club like this running in the Championship, never mind in League One. The finances of the pyramid are so messed up that you can't just bumble along financially anymore.

Developing a strong foundation of a squad of permanent signings that you can then add greater quality to via loans is the most reliable path to success. How much of the quality comes from loans is the question and the clubs that need fewer first 11 loanees tend (and only tend) to perform more consistently.

We don't currently have enough assets with resale potential in key areas and we'll have to sort that out.

The argument against what I'm saying seems to be, "We can't just get by selling players"...but I've never said we can. The reality is we can't run efficiently WITHOUT trading in players. It is a vital part (and only a part) of being financially secure over the next few years.

That means we need to consistently see assets come in, especially as the academy system is on its uppers and will take years to sort out.