Bottom 5 fixtures

[The Axman]

I've got a friend who's done me a favour and run an analysis of all the betting prediction algorithms he can find and fed in Tukish Trotter's last 11 fixtures for the bottom 5.

He's come up with this:
Blackburn 33
QPR 29
Bolton 28
Wolves 28
Wigan 24

Not exactly encouraging but the best algorithms money can't buy. (If Carling did algorithms...)

[bettyrasta]

That's that sorted then..

Just to soften the blow could he run one for me on the lottery numbers for this weekend?

[The Axman]

1 3 15 21 22 30

[bettyrasta]

Wa-hey, thanks for that. Do us a favour though and keep it quiet?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I've got a friend who's done me a favour and run an analysis of all the betting prediction algorithms he can find

Come again?

So is this a reflection of what people will bet on?

[The Axman]

I've got a friend who's done me a favour and run an analysis of all the betting prediction algorithms he can find

Come again?

So is this a reflection of what people will bet on?

No it's the algorithms online betting firms use to predict the most likely scorelines for any given match. He has access to some of them (he's a prof/lecturer in statistics, and developed a few).
He then applied those algorithms to all the matches Turkish Trotter listed. He then used that to predict the likely number of points each of the bottom 5 will gather from those 11 matches, and then added them to the points those teams already have. Ta da.

[Bruce Rioja]

So could I get a bet on

Blackburn 33
QPR 29
Bolton 28
Wolves 28
Wigan 24

Then?

[The Axman]

Absolutely. Wouldn't get great odds though.

[bettyrasta]

Will the algorithms (pretending I understand this) not change depending on factors such as form up to that specific game, if all team out suspended/injured, if managers begin to pick consistent formations and not play players out of position and other variables? Guess what I'm saying is that it will be for example predicting outcomes of games in 10 games time on the basis of where teams are at now. Anyway it's a bit of fun and I like fun.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Ta. Interesting that the algorhythms predict a belated and frankly probably deserved turnaround in fortunes for Steve Kean.

But as with most statistical mapping tools, they presumably work in an unrealistic vacuum. You imagine they can't possibly take into account teams 'coasting' in late season (or, conversely, playing with more freedom).

Never met a poor bookie, but I've seen a few statistical prediction tools go wrong. I'm still paying for some of them. So are you, if you're a tax-payer, or have savings.

[Salford Trotter]

Absolutely. Wouldn't get great odds though.

I come from a family of Bookies so believe me you would if you forecasted the points and places correctly

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Absolutely. Wouldn't get great odds though.

I come from a family of Bookies so believe me you would if you forecasted the points and places correctly

It's a hell of an accumulator, isn't it? Basically 10 correct bets (five positions, five points totals).

[Salford Trotter]

Absolutely. Wouldn't get great odds though.

I come from a family of Bookies so believe me you would if you forecasted the points and places correctly

It's a hell of an accumulator, isn't it? Basically 10 correct bets (five positions, five points totals).

With a decent stake you could dining on the finest fillet steak for some time to come

[The Axman]

BettyRasta - Yes, this is just a snapshot of form as now. And yes the odds change according to the amount of info fed in, but (and this is the point) this wasn't done trying to predict the POINTS, the points were worked out by trying to predict the SCORES - and (so I'm told) predicting individual games scores (statistically) is much easier than predicting interactive group points.
And Yes DSB it is only astatistical prediction tool and it is vulnerable to the usual aberrant elements all such tools encounter.
And I take your point ST if you were to get odds for that exact set of points, I was referring just to place a bet on Bolton ending on 28 points.

[The Axman]

As a by-note: (and I hope Salford Ttrotter concurs) bookies set odds by working out how best to reduce their chances of losing money from setting the odds and then adjusting them according to level of money placed against the various ranges in play ('horses' 'scores' etc). Whereas, in-play betting (as used on-line) uses a range of algorithms to extract information from previous plays ('races', 'matches', etc) to set the odds.

[Salford Trotter]

As a by-note: (and I hope Salford Ttrotter concurs) bookies set odds by working out how best to reduce their chances of losing money from setting the odds and then adjusting them according to level of money placed against the various ranges in play ('horses' 'scores' etc). Whereas, in-play betting (as used on-line) uses a range of algorithms to extract information from previous plays ('races', 'matches', etc) to set the odds.

I concur Axman. If i was clever enough i'd take a gamble but despite my family's heritage in bookmaking i can't pick a winner for all the tea in China. Despite his luck/wealth my Grandad knew what it was like to lose and he paid out in the 1930s a world record winning bet of over £13,000 to an old dear who'd hit every fecking jackpot going!! (ref: Professor Carl Chinn Social History of Bookmaking)

[The Axman]

Blimey ST. Is Thursday party night in Salford - posting at 2:19am!

[Worthy4England]

Blimey ST. Is Thursday party night in Salford - posting at 2:19am!

Every night is party night in Salford.

[The Axman]

Absolutely. Wouldn't get great odds though.

I come from a family of Bookies so believe me you would if you forecasted the points and places correctly

It's a hell of an accumulator, isn't it? Basically 10 correct bets (five positions, five points totals).

With a decent stake you could dining on the finest fillet steak for some time to come

Not so easy as you think. just been to Ladbrokes (we used to have a Billy Hill too, but that closed) and they won't take the bet. They'll give me individual odds on teams being relegated and they'll do single bets on sets of three to be relegated, but they won't take a bet on the bottom five order and they won't take bets on final point scores for teams, and they refuse point blank to work a full-cover Super Yankee on both positions and points over bottom five teams. So it's no good having stupendous odds if the bookies won't take the bet. I've left them with a range of bespoke bets and they're going to ring head office to see if they'll negotiate on any of them but the manager wasn't hopeful. I'll find out Monday dinnertime.

[Bruce Rioja]

Not so easy as you think. just been to Ladbrokes (we used to have a Billy Hill too, but that closed) and they won't take the bet. They'll give me individual odds on teams being relegated and they'll do single bets on sets of three to be relegated, but they won't take a bet on the bottom five order and they won't take bets on final point scores for teams, and they refuse point blank to work a full-cover Super Yankee on both positions and points over bottom five teams.

That's what I thought might happen. Let us know if you do manage to get it on won't you, Axo?