A Novel affair. Home to Mansfield Town Tues 3rd Dec. 1945

[Bertie Wooster]

The issue is that in almost very game the team only play for 25-30 mins max, the other 55-60min is boring, slow, turgid, predictable crab football just inviting the opposition on, we can't beat the press until the last 25 mins when they tire a little.

When the players are allowed to play quick, more direct, higher intensity football they are decent and we have some decent players who can do this. Surely these players if fit and coached correctly can manage more than 25-30 mins a game.

Tutu last night showed what we've been missing since Dapo, a quick skilful player taking players on with pace - this is what the fans want not tippy tappy, sideways & backwards turgid shite. I wonder what we would look like with Tutu & Schon as wide midfielders in a 4-4-2, both are more than capable.

The fans are bored to tears with the current tactics & approach, it's awful to watch and is turning fans off in droves - I think perhaps 12,000 max the actual attendance last night. Perhaps we need to bring in a more experienced coach to change training and help Evatt (if he stays) change the way we play & approach games mentally, an outsider not one of Evatt's B/Pool chums. Surely Evatt must be able to see that he won't get the fans back on side unless he changes his approach and tactics.

[truewhite15]

It is all very Orwellian. "Don't trust the evidence of your eyes and ears saying that we played like crap, look at the result!"

I've said before that I'm happy enough with crap football if it ends with us having more goals than the other lot. We're not a million miles away, despite looking pretty poor in the majority of games so far. But it's hard to deny that our wins have seemed fortuitous. It's hardly sparkling quality that's seen us win so many this season.

[Bertie Wooster]

It is all very Orwellian. "Don't trust the evidence of your eyes and ears saying that we played like crap, look at the result!"

I've said before that I'm happy enough with crap football if it ends with us having more goals than the other lot. We're not a million miles away, despite looking pretty poor in the majority of games so far. But it's hard to deny that our wins have seemed fortuitous. It's hardly sparkling quality that's seen us win so many this season.

Its not just that, the crowds are dwindling quite rapidly - a large proportion of the fan base has had enough with the current style of football, that's not being dramatic that quite clear to most. The club has done great to get the crowds up to record levels and interest generally up in recent years, however that it now at serious risk. For the majority of this season even when we get a result its quite staggering watching games and how badly & disorganised we look, at times we look like a team of strangers badly coached, you can see and sense the general disinterest & apathy in the crowd....apart from those 25-30 mins of games when the team actually decide to play football that interests the fans and then the fans respond.

[Prufrock]

For me, the problem is (apart from "he's still here"), that we should be top 6 pretty comfortably, with the squad and investments.

The league table is little different than this stage 2 years ago, when it had Plymouth, Ipswich and Sheff Weds as 1, 2, 3 on 42, 38 and 37 points (albeit all on played 18). It's pretty much a match for today assuming Brum don't crash on their games in hand. We were on 28 points from 17 having scored 19 and conceded 14. We made the playoffs, so I don't doubt we can do that again. We're only 4 points behind the mythical 2 ppg. But. 2 years ago 96 points didn't go up (other than through the playoffs.)

We're a long way short of last season at the same point. P18, top with 39 points (bizarrely Oxford were in 3rd, 3 points behind.

I genuinely think Shazza is "being advised" that on the maths, this isn't bad, with our budget, top 6 (rather than top 2) is realistic and we should be ok with that, because January will fill some holes and then we could be 2 games from a Wembley pay date.

But when you use your eyes on something other than a spreadsheet, it's clearly gone backwards and I for one, still haven't moved off "he's not getting us up this year." He's managed to lose a lot of the people who were very enamoured with goals, whilst having the 7th leakiest defence in the division.

Not good enough for me.

Pretty much where I am too. Up until now we've been better every season under Evatt (you could argue not as much better as we should have been, last season, say, but still progress). This year we've come off the back of the Oxford disaster, spent a good chunk (not the most, but we started from 3rd (arguably 4th) and gone backwards.

Not only that but the same failings are there: too open on transitions, weak on set pieces, capable of getting thumped out of nowhere.

We also now "look" and numerically carry much less of a threat.

It feels to me like we're just hoping he digs it out and we get better. Maybe we will, but we're constantly chopping and changing shape, personnel, approach, it doesn't look like a plan waiting to bear fruit.

[Worthy4England]

It is, and its also a funny old league this year.

Birmingham are hardly smashing it despite spending 10 gazillion pounds in the summer (I suspect their fans must be up in arms about their plight?).

Huddersfield - many people's other strong tip for the top - are only 2 points ahead of our calamity of a season. Wrexham can be reeled in with a couple of favourable results, and Count-eh are level on points with us.

Barnsley are below us on more games. Charlton and Peterborough are 3 wins away from us, and Rotherham are closer to the relegation places than they are to us.


Now, none of this matters one bit to us if we're not seen to be performing, but what it does show is that there are many other supposed strong (or "big") teams that are faltering in this weird and crazy league, so all is most certainly not lost......

I think there are some different aspects to this. If I look at the teams you mention then I may well indeed come to the conclusion "it's a funny old league, this year"

That's about where it ends on the funny old league front (as it stands at the moment). In many respects, it's a lot like the previous three seasons. Why do I suggest such scurrilous remarks?

1) At this number of games, the last 3 seasons, teams one and two have been inside the top 3.
2) Only once has a current top 3 team been under 2 ppg at this stage, in the last three years - Rotherham in 2022(/2)
3) We do occasionally see a team collapse a few places - Stevenage last season -5 places and and Plymouth 2021 -6 places, but we rarely see teams currently inside the top 8 move more than 1 or 2 upwards. The two exceptions to this have been Barnsley in 2021/22 and Sheffield Wednesday the previous year who both pulled their fingers out to go from 8th to 4th. These are both the biggest upward positional swings from teams in the top 8. On both occasions they managed >2 ppg from G17 but with the lower starting point (8th), it didn't have a huge impact on automatics.
4) The top 8 at this point has been the top 8 at the end for most teams (something like 7 out of the 8 ), for a number of years. Last season, Lincoln managed to join the top 8 by the end, in 7th. That was up 2 places from game 17.
5) The average upwards change in PPG from here is 0.19 and the best from a team with our current PPG was 0.28 - if we managed that uptick, we'd end up on 2.04 overall and just around 92 points. We'd need 2 of the current top 3 to collapse like sacks of shit, to catch them.

On that basis, I don't think we're making top 2.

[jimbo]

Wycombe are flying at the moment. They’re on 39 from 17. Last year we were similarly on 38 from 17 and faded to finish with 87. Derby were 6th with 30 from 17. Same points tally as we have now.

Barring Birmingham I think all of those above us are vulnerable to a dip. 2pt per game from here gets us to 88. If we can get to that, we’ll have a chance. Whether we can continue to muddle along as we have been the last 12 games is another thing.

[Worthy4England]

Wycombe are flying at the moment. They’re on 39 from 17. Last year we were similarly on 38 from 17 and faded to finish with 87. Derby were 6th with 30 from 17. Same points tally as we have now.

Barring Birmingham I think all of those above us are vulnerable to a dip. 2pt per game from here gets us to 88. If we can get to that, we’ll have a chance. Whether we can continue to muddle along as we have been the last 12 games is another thing.

All things are possible and it will as ever be fine margins.

There was a deliberate mistake (unintentional) on my part, in that Derby did indeed go up 4 from 6th, my bad, not intending to mislead - apols.

Derby went at 2.14 ppg from this point forwards which was enough, and all 5 teams above them at this point actually had to go backwards and did...

The main factor for me is do I see us having another mini meltdown month? Because we're as vulnerable as the other teams to that, especially if the two at the start weren't "the lot" for the season - and the answer to that is yes, so do I see Evatt keeping us at 2.14 ppg over another 29 games, without being impacted by flu, injuries, CBA's - no, no I don't.

I'm still not in the automatics club, although I am in the "should be in the play-offs club"...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Agree with Worthy and Pru (among others): the key point is not that it's "not good enough", it's actually backwards on last year.

Oxford could have been his curtain call but even those of us who said he deserved another chance warned that this season had to be better. Quantitatively and qualitatively, it clearly ain't. He needed a good start, he presided over a terrible one, and even the wins since the Huddersfield debacle (a result he was even luckier to survive) have been patchy. As I said before last night's game, one win vs top-half teams; I'm not sure last night's late turnaround vs ten men convinced many we'll start competently dispatching the teams above us.

Maybe there's succour in the comeback - a second successive home game rescued from behind. Maybe there's hope in the way that, with shackles off and little to lose, our players poured forward and caused damage.

It's all subjective. I totally understand why some might delight in the recent run – but we're still outside the playoffs, which is surely the season's absolute minimum for any fan and way below the expectations of many, not least those at the club.

I can see why some would say last minute's final 30 minutes suggest we can push higher (up the pitch and league), although I'd question whose fault it is that we need to rescue games and whether players are underperforming rather than terrible per se. (McAtee has had critics, but if he'd signed for his other suitors Wrexham the reviews might have been different.)

Like Dave the Minion I've noticed Huddersfield and Rotherham underachieving. Long may it last, but Duff's Barnsley improved hugely after his first January, and Rotherham (who've conceded 20 to our 27) are currently the division's biggest xG underachievers; they SHOULD have scored only slightly fewer than Birmingham, suggesting Evans - who, like Duff, knows how to trouble this division – might not be far off the right path.

Jimbo suggests that had a new manager (say, Steven Schumacher) presided the same post-Huddersfield run as Evatt, we'd be delighted. It's a very fair point and quite possibly true, although IMO with a couple of caveats.

Firstly, that run has contained some worrying bumps. The Shrewsbury first half (four days after conceding two late goals at Northampton) would have raised some concerns, heightened by the subsequent Villa embarrassment; the Birmingham game might have suggested we were far short of that particular benchmark; and although the Walsall capitulation might be brushed under the bulging carpet marked Concentrate On The League, the subsequent humiliation at Stockport couldn't have been ignored.

Some forgiveness would be given to a new manager, of course. That's partly hope that the future will be better (and partly the realisation that most managers need time and their own players, except apparently Arne Slot), but the reverse is that trust in Evatt has been eroded. The hypothetical new manager wouldn't have the goalless and gormless defeats to Huddersfield, Exeter, Charlton and crucially Oxford besmirching his record.

Managers have recovered from worse positions but a phrase sang out to me this week, from Jonathan Wilson - funnily enough in relation to Pep Guardiola, whose CV is a touch better than any man we'll get near: "History shows that once the magic has gone in football, it is very hard to get it back." I've said many times that Evatt will have to keep winning. It's become clear that even winning isn't enough to quell the debate if the victories still raise serious, repeated questions.

[BWFC_Insane]

It is all very Orwellian. "Don't trust the evidence of your eyes and ears saying that we played like crap, look at the result!"

I've said before that I'm happy enough with crap football if it ends with us having more goals than the other lot. We're not a million miles away, despite looking pretty poor in the majority of games so far. But it's hard to deny that our wins have seemed fortuitous. It's hardly sparkling quality that's seen us win so many this season.

Fortunate or lucky wins may not be fortunate at all. They may reflect our higher quality. The issue of course is whether the fortune evaporates when you most need it.

Some managers build styles that get results that observers may say are ‘lucky’ but then the fact they are repeatable and happen when it really counts often enough to lead to success suggests they are not necessarily lucky but doing it by design.

Right now it feels not like that. But maybe Evatt will surprise us and turn us into an efficient team that just wins games regardless of how it plays.

[Worthy4England]

Agree with Worthy and Pru (among others): the key point is not that it's "not good enough", it's actually backwards on last year.

Oxford could have been his curtain call but even those of us who said he deserved another chance warned that this season had to be better. Quantitatively and qualitatively, it clearly ain't. He needed a good start, he presided over a terrible one, and even the wins since the Huddersfield debacle (a result he was even luckier to survive) have been patchy. As I said before last night's game, one win vs top-half teams; I'm not sure last night's late turnaround vs ten men convinced many we'll start competently dispatching the teams above us.

Maybe there's succour in the comeback - a second successive home game rescued from behind. Maybe there's hope in the way that, with shackles off and little to lose, our players poured forward and caused damage.

It's all subjective. I totally understand why some might delight in the recent run – but we're still outside the playoffs, which is surely the season's absolute minimum for any fan and way below the expectations of many, not least those at the club.

I can see why some would say last minute's final 30 minutes suggest we can push higher (up the pitch and league), although I'd question whose fault it is that we need to rescue games and whether players are underperforming rather than terrible per se. (McAtee has had critics, but if he'd signed for his other suitors Wrexham the reviews might have been different.)

Like Dave the Minion I've noticed Huddersfield and Rotherham underachieving. Long may it last, but Duff's Barnsley improved hugely after his first January, and Rotherham (who've conceded 20 to our 27) are currently the division's biggest xG underachievers; they SHOULD have scored only slightly fewer than Birmingham, suggesting Evans - who, like Duff, knows how to trouble this division – might not be far off the right path.

Jimbo suggests that had a new manager (say, Steven Schumacher) presided the same post-Huddersfield run as Evatt, we'd be delighted. It's a very fair point and quite possibly true, although IMO with a couple of caveats.

Firstly, that run has contained some worrying bumps. The Shrewsbury first half (four days after conceding two late goals at Northampton) would have raised some concerns, heightened by the subsequent Villa embarrassment; the Birmingham game might have suggested we were far short of that particular benchmark; and although the Walsall capitulation might be brushed under the bulging carpet marked Concentrate On The League, the subsequent humiliation at Stockport couldn't have been ignored.

Some forgiveness would be given to a new manager, of course. That's partly hope that the future will be better (and partly the realisation that most managers need time and their own players, except apparently Arne Slot), but the reverse is that trust in Evatt has been eroded. The hypothetical new manager wouldn't have the goalless and gormless defeats to Huddersfield, Exeter, Charlton and crucially Oxford besmirching his record.

Managers have recovered from worse positions but a phrase sang out to me this week, from Jonathan Wilson - funnily enough in relation to Pep Guardiola, whose CV is a touch better than any man we'll get near: "History shows that once the magic has gone in football, it is very hard to get it back." I've said many times that Evatt will have to keep winning. It's become clear that even winning isn't enough to quell the debate if the victories still raise serious, repeated questions.

Hopefully my maths has improved since previous post.

On the Schumacher point, it's really a pointless comparison in pretty much a "best light" situation. Yes over 12 games, we're currently at 2.17 ppg but one game back, we weren't and three games back we were at 1.58.

Things we know to be true. We've never under Evatt got 2 ppg in a season. Over any 46 consecutive games, we've managed 2 blocks of 2 weeks each. Games 23/24 last season and games 27/28. Obviously this includes games from the previous season. Our best 46 game spin is 2.04 ppg.

If you look at 6 games streaks, they're much more frequent (pretty much as you'd expect) - so what about 29 games - which is what we have left?

We've been over 2 ppg over 29 a few times, but pretty crucially, only two consecutive weeks in the same season. Games 29 and 30 last year (in Feb), when we were at 2.03 ppg over 29 games. We were over 2 ppg from the previous 29 from game-week 21, but that puts some games at the tail end of the season prior. Our best 29 game run was at an impressive 2.17.

I'll stick with, he's not getting us to 2 ppg this season.

[irie Cee Bee]

I am hoping that Evatt has finally seen the light... that his tippy tappy Sheehan based system, which stifles our creativity and bores us to death, needs to change. It will be the death of him too if he continues play that way. How delightful it was to see Tutu, Williams, Lolos running with the football creating havoc. We may not have won if Mansfield kept 11 on the field, but we would have been good for a point.

Evatt... 4 changes at once, inverted wing backs, subbing Sheehan ... no longer Cameron and Dadbod coming on the 70th minute as per the system programing.....I for one is keeping my fingers crossed that he is no longer tone deaf, and therefore is willing to get in players who can play football and not the system.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Cheers for the maths, Worthy. (For reference, I added Schumacher - he wasn't in Jimbo's original.)

So what we're saying with the PPG spreads is that to go up automatically, Contemporary Evatt will have to outperform just about every iteration of Previous Evatt. Which is, really, just what we said at the start of the season: Do It Better. The bad start made it harder mathematically, but also (and IMO more crucially) in terms of the mood around the club - as shown that even while he averages 2+ppg (over a small dataset) the questions remain.

[TANGODANCER]

Have to think that if this Wanderers team were promoted to The Campionship tomorrow (our aim) we'd very soon be relegated again. Nothing about us promises much. Until we learn to fight, we're just another potential bottom half team. If I.E thinks differently then he needs to wake up and see the light. I've supported his case all the way so far, but "There are none so blind as those who will not see!"--John Heywood, 1456...seems adapt for the situation. Wakey,wakey Ian,Morning has broken..

[Worthy4England]

Cheers for the maths, Worthy. (For reference, I added Schumacher - he wasn't in Jimbo's original.)

So what we're saying with the PPG spreads is that to go up automatically, Contemporary Evatt will have to outperform just about every iteration of Previous Evatt. Which is, really, just what we said at the start of the season: Do It Better. The bad start made it harder mathematically, but also (and IMO more crucially) in terms of the mood around the club - as shown that even while he averages 2+ppg (over a small dataset) the questions remain.

Yup, pretty much. I mean the other side of the convo - so to align to what DTM was saying, is if it was a 2020/21 year, the bar for second was only 90...which makes everything slightly lower!

I mean we're not complaining about our points tally when Parky took us up, whereas Sheff Weds probably felt hard-done by on 96.

But - and I keep coming back to this, it's all marginal. To get in the autos, we probably need the people in front of us on ppg to decrease a bit, whilst we increase a fair chunk. I reckon it was likely higher than Evatt had typically achieved over 41 games, by game 5. Which in part is why we were bellyaching, when others were saying "let's see the next 5."

[BorsdaneWhite]

Just occurred to me: he must be coating his kecks for Wigan at home.

[Worthy4England]

Just occurred to me: he must be coating his kecks for Wigan at home.

Ahh. But Brett will wash and iron, faster than a speeding bullet. We is good.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I see Clough, N. has gone full Clough, B. in his post-match reaction to Radio Nottingham. Always a bold decision to call out your players (singular or plural) but I guess his stock's very high.

That's three points thrown away. We have now lost four league games on the spin which is a disgrace considering the four performances we have put in. But we must do everything absolutely right to get a result. We did 90% of it right but one player made an incredibly silly decision and it cost us the game.

I used to work with a very decent man called Graham Taylor at England and he said ultimately players will always let you down. I don’t trust players, I really don't. Any of them, as good a squad as we have got, I don't trust players.

It's my fault, I should have brought Boateng off when he was on a yellow card. Andy* said, 'Are you going to get him off'? And I said, 'Give him five minutes'. Then he goes and makes a tackle like that, which for an experienced player to do when on a yellow card is quite incredible. Normally when players are on yellow cards we bring them off. They will come off in future every time.

*'Andy' is Andy Garner, who has been Clough's assistant gaffer since 2013 at Sheffield United, Burton and Mansfield. However, to older viewers like me, he'll always be Blackpool striker "Ooh Andy Garner". (Although when I first heard the Seaseaseasiders supporters singing that, I misunderstood it and thought they had a player called Uan Digana )

[dave the minion]

Have you heard his interview after the game about this (towards the end of Ile's last word Buff podcast)?

Absolutely brilliant!

[BWFC_Insane]

I see Clough, N. has gone full Clough, B. in his post-match reaction to Radio Nottingham. Always a bold decision to call out your players (singular or plural) but I guess his stock's very high.

That's three points thrown away. We have now lost four league games on the spin which is a disgrace considering the four performances we have put in. But we must do everything absolutely right to get a result. We did 90% of it right but one player made an incredibly silly decision and it cost us the game.

I used to work with a very decent man called Graham Taylor at England and he said ultimately players will always let you down. I don’t trust players, I really don't. Any of them, as good a squad as we have got, I don't trust players.

It's my fault, I should have brought Boateng off when he was on a yellow card. Andy* said, 'Are you going to get him off'? And I said, 'Give him five minutes'. Then he goes and makes a tackle like that, which for an experienced player to do when on a yellow card is quite incredible. Normally when players are on yellow cards we bring them off. They will come off in future every time.

*'Andy' is Andy Garner, who has been Clough's assistant gaffer since 2013 at Sheffield United, Burton and Mansfield. However, to older viewers like me, he'll always be Blackpool striker "Ooh Andy Garner". (Although when I first heard the Seaseaseasiders supporters singing that, I misunderstood it and thought they had a player called Uan Digana )

I saw his interview post match and it did raise a smile. Nigel who has always been let’s say more diplomatic than his dad was is definitely ageing into something approaching his father’s mood and style.

Quite like it though. For me although the sending off was clearly significant - he was after all one of their better players on the night….i don’t think the offered enough second half in an attacking sense. Had they retained the ball better in our half they may have won regardless. As I suspect Nigel might also think given the number of times he flapped his arms despairingly after they needlessly surrendered possession back to us,

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

If Evatt said "I don't trust players, I really don't" I'd bet my scrotal sack that this place would be aflame with "he's lost the dressing room", "he's got to go" &c &c. As I say it's a high-risk ploy, best only employed by very secure managers. Clough's not far behind Evatt at the top end of two EFL managerial tables - current job longevity and win rate. Thise two factors remain ever tighter entwined for Mr Evatt...