Can We Beat Pete??

[Whookam]

Don't want to be a killjoy for those who think we still may reach the playoffs but here's the facts:

We'll need around 75 points, that's 30 from the remaining 12 games.

We've been out of the playoff hunt since October/November.

but think that 75 won't be needed this season when you look at how many the bottom 5 teams have got. Lots of teams beating each other outside the top 5.

Around 75 points has been the benchmark in recent seasons with 70 being the lowest. Unless you can show that this season is atypical then we have to assume 75 points.

[Whookam]

Don't want to be a killjoy for those who think we still may reach the playoffs but here's the facts:

We'll need around 75 points, that's 30 from the remaining 12 games.

We've been out of the playoff hunt since October/November.

We only need to catch up 7 points. That's really not a lot, especially considering how the teams around us are faltering whilst we're finding some good form. Get another couple of wins in the next 4 games, and we'll have closed the gap to a 3 or 4 points.

That's not how it works. We're far more than 7 point off the playoff places in real terms because other teams play and pick up points as well. As I said we should assume we'll need around 75 points from the remaining 12 games so we essentially have to win them all to be sneak into that final playoff spot.

It's the failure to understand how the relative accumulation of points works that leads to unnecessary pressure on the team. For example winning a couple of games out of four would see us drop down the table! We are not in any way challenging for a playoff place despite how close it looks to you. There are too few games left and too much ground to make up. Consider that the gap is not 7 points but 25 to 30 and now see how we can close that gap.

[CrazyHorse]

Playoffs lol.
We're going nowhere near the playoffs. We're not even safe yet. We need to get to 50 points, lick our wounds and see where we go from there. Just a top half finish would be a real achievement after the fiasco first half season we had.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Clean Sheet.
Back to back wins.
Highest ever position (this season).

I'll bask in that sunshine for a few days at least.

[Sponge]

Don't want to be a killjoy for those who think we still may reach the playoffs but here's the facts:

We'll need around 75 points, that's 30 from the remaining 12 games.

We've been out of the playoff hunt since October/November.

We only need to catch up 7 points. That's really not a lot, especially considering how the teams around us are faltering whilst we're finding some good form. Get another couple of wins in the next 4 games, and we'll have closed the gap to a 3 or 4 points.

That's not how it works. We're far more than 7 point off the playoff places in real terms because other teams play and pick up points as well. As I said we should assume we'll need around 75 points from the remaining 12 games so we essentially have to win them all to be sneak into that final playoff spot.

It's the failure to understand how the relative accumulation of points works that leads to unnecessary pressure on the team. For example winning a couple of games out of four would see us drop down the table! We are not in any way challenging for a playoff place despite how close it looks to you. There are too few games left and too much ground to make up. Consider that the gap is not 7 points but 25 to 30 and now see how we can close that gap.

Yep.

[BWFC_Insane]

I don't think the play-offs are realistic either. Possible.

But not realistic.

Look at it this way. Over the last 5 games we've had our best form of the season. 2.2 points per game.

IF and thats a massive IF we maintain that form over the next 12 games that gives us roughly a further 26 points. Which would leave us on 71 points.

If for the purposes of this we pretend that it's only a race between ourselves and Brighton. It would leave Brighton needing a further 20 points from their 13 games. Only slightly over 1.5 ppg.

So even that looks a long shot in the extreme. Thats before you factor in the other teams above us and below Brighton.

[ChrisC]

Playoffs lol.
We're going nowhere near the playoffs. We're not even safe yet. We need to get to 50 points, lick our wounds and see where we go from there. Just a top half finish would be a real achievement after the fiasco first half season we had.

We are 10 points clear of the bottom 3 I believe. Making the playoffs more likely than relegation.

Deep down I know it is very unlikely we will get in the playoffs. But after the season we have had, it is nice to just be talking about the possibility of the playoffs!

[norm the jedi]

I don't think the play-offs are realistic either. Possible.

But not realistic.

Look at it this way. Over the last 5 games we've had our best form of the season. 2.2 points per game.

IF and thats a massive IF we maintain that form over the next 12 games that gives us roughly a further 26 points. Which would leave us on 71 points.

If for the purposes of this we pretend that it's only a race between ourselves and Brighton. It would leave Brighton needing a further 20 points from their 13 games. Only slightly over 1.5 ppg.

So even that looks a long shot in the extreme. Thats before you factor in the other teams above us and below Brighton.

Although our remaining fixtures are predominantly against teams below us as we are done with most of the top 9 teams above. So I think we can at least take off the 'relegation dog fight' sack cloth and ashes... Consolidate, build, kidnap Dawson and change his identity, in a face off with Tim Ream and make a proper fist of it next season and possibly be in a position to consolidate a promotion because as we are, if we did sneek up (not happening) we'd be there for the day trips and bounced down again unceremoniously by Christmas....
Steady as we go.. Get organised, get fit, get going... Actually looking forward to next season...

[Athers]

Yep let's not get excited yet.

What I'm looking for now until the end of the season is to show that we can win some away games and have a bit of momentum going into the Summer so they come back feeling positive about next season.

As for last night -

Pleased with:

- Another fast start, we were all over them for the first 20 minutes and it could easily have been 3-0 again.
- How does Dawson do it?!
- Spearing was important I thought as the midfield seemed a bit disorganised other than for his leadership. Pratley and Lee got through plenty running but as Pratley especially was charging around it left the P'boro left back free which helped them move up the pitch. They were actually OK circulating the ball and moving up from their own box to 35 yards from our goal but they were useless (without Boyd) from there on in. Freedman for me calculated they'd not be able to get a goal and...
- It was good practice to get used to hanging onto a one goal lead, even if it was relatively easy to do.
- Bogdan charging out well to clear that ball over the top in the first half, confidence Adam!

Concerns:

- Sordell was poor, C Davies' has earned a place above Sordell in the pecking order, especially with the LAW OF THE EX to come on Saturday.
- Obviously the M Davies injury.
- I forgot to wear thermal socks, amateur hour.

[thebish]

am off out for my sea-kayaking course in a bit - so will miss most of the game...

I'll just drop this in for good measure before I go..

DOMED!

You're going sea-kayaking at night?

it's possible the moment has passed, but I ought to clear this up! The course is indoors at Paignton Leisure pool in the winter months and moves out into the cruel swelling open sea (well - the calm shelter of Paignton harbour!) in April - by which time I am hoping the sea will have warmed up to tropical temperatures!

spent much of last night upside-down practising capsize manoeuvers!

[89bwfc89]

I'd love to sign Spearing. Totally deserved MOM last night. We had great seats in the ESU and could hear a lot of what was going on on the pitch. Jay was constantly talking to the others and getting them organised. We were inviting the pressure from Pete in the second half, crowd were getting a little restless and could just hear Spearing screaming come onnnn, pick it up!!!!

That's exactly what we need.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

am off out for my sea-kayaking course in a bit - so will miss most of the game...

I'll just drop this in for good measure before I go..

DOMED!

You're going sea-kayaking at night?

it's possible the moment has passed, but I ought to clear this up! The course is indoors at Paignton Leisure pool in the winter months and moves out into the cruel swelling open sea (well - the calm shelter of Paignton harbour!) in April - by which time I am hoping the sea will have warmed up to tropical temperatures!spent much of last night upside-down practising capsize manoeuvers!

Ha. not a chance. The sea off our coasts is coldest in March/April and warmest in September/October.

[TANGODANCER]

Real top-notch reporting in the Marc Iles column of the B.N. " Alonso makes a tackle", below a picture of Sam Ricketts. Don't you just love it, our home town newspaper.

[BWFC_Insane]

It's no coincidence that since Dawson came into the side we're unbeaten and have hit our 2 ppg (and bettered it) target.

It shows that a proper centre half who wins everything in the air, makes a massive difference.

We just weren't set up well as a squad this season for competing in this division. You can have all the good attacking players you want, but without a proper competitive, strong, physical centre back you're fecked. Same in midfield. And Pratley's form has also coincided with our good run, probably because his physical presence and running has massively helped us in this league.

[TANGODANCER]

Daily Express headline:

Dougie Freedman gets the message on Michael Dawson after winner

[ChrisC]

Daily Express headline:

Dougie Freedman gets the message on Michael Dawson after winner

Who employs these people?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

think that 75 won't be needed this season when you look at how many the bottom 5 teams have got. Lots of teams beating each other outside the top 5.

Around 75 points has been the benchmark in recent seasons with 70 being the lowest. Unless you can show that this season is atypical then we have to assume 75 points.

As the bloke who brought you the 75-point benchmark, I thought I'd do a little more digging on it. There were some outliers in the last 10 seasons, and predictably enough the bar tended to be lower at this stage of the season. This is a bit less scientifically rigorous as teams have played different numbers of games, but here's a rough guide to how many points the sixth-placed teams had gained after 33 games:

2013 52 - ??
2012 55 - 75
2011 54 - 75
2010 52 - 70
2009 52 - 74
2008 51 - 70
2007 56 - 75
2006 55 - 75
2005 53 - 73
2004 52 - 73

Reasonably enough, lower totals at this stage of the season tend to mean a lower bar at the end – and Brighton's current 52-point haul isn't the hottest pace. With none of the teams outside the top five putting a strong run together, it wouldn't stun me to see sixth place being won with 70 points – which for Bolton would mean 25 points from their final 12 games, which now include eight fixtures against sides currently below us. It's not unheard of for a team to come from midtable in strong form and reach the play-offs: being in form, they're also usually a good bet – as our previous manager discovered in 2009, although Burnley didn't come from nearly as far back or nearly as late. Those wishing to ponder play-off possibilities aren't quite dreaming.

However, I don't think it will happen. While I welcome our second clean sheet since December, our highest position since August, our first back-to-back league wins since March and the general air of hang-on-we-might-not-be-shite, it's the latter that's the most important. We need to finish the season in positive style, both on the pitch and in the stands, as the reconstruction is far from over.

Assuming there's no hope of signing Dawson, he will need replacing – whether by Wheater, Bolger, Mills, Ream or a newcomer; assuming Alonso understandably walks away, we'll need a left-back, especially if this narrow-midfield formation is a regular option; there'll also be a decision to make on whether to bid for Spearing, considering we have Medo, Andrews, Holden, Vela and Pratley.

At least Mark Davies has signed an extension. It's never a guarantee, but it would give us more comeback if he leaves. That said, more and more players seem to be signing up to Freedman's ethos. I'm glad to see that's happening among the support too – slowly, perhaps, and not universally, but wins don't half help improve the atmosphere.

[Sponge]

think that 75 won't be needed this season when you look at how many the bottom 5 teams have got. Lots of teams beating each other outside the top 5.

Around 75 points has been the benchmark in recent seasons with 70 being the lowest. Unless you can show that this season is atypical then we have to assume 75 points.

As the bloke who brought you the 75-point benchmark, I thought I'd do a little more digging on it. There were some outliers in the last 10 seasons, and predictably enough the bar tended to be lower at this stage of the season. This is a bit less scientifically rigorous as teams have played different numbers of games, but here's a rough guide to how many points the sixth-placed teams had gained after 33 games:

2013 52 - ??
2012 55 - 75
2011 54 - 75
2010 52 - 70
2009 52 - 74
2008 51 - 70
2007 56 - 75
2006 55 - 75
2005 53 - 73
2004 52 - 73

Reasonably enough, lower totals at this stage of the season tend to mean a lower bar at the end – and Brighton's current 52-point haul isn't the hottest pace. With none of the teams outside the top five putting a strong run together, it wouldn't stun me to see sixth place being won with 70 points – which for Bolton would mean 25 points from their final 12 games, which now include eight fixtures against sides currently below us. It's not unheard of for a team to come from midtable in strong form and reach the play-offs: being in form, they're also usually a good bet – as our previous manager discovered in 2009, although Burnley didn't come from nearly as far back or nearly as late. Those wishing to ponder play-off possibilities aren't quite dreaming.

However, I don't think it will happen. While I welcome our second clean sheet since December, our highest position since August, our first back-to-back league wins since March and the general air of hang-on-we-might-not-be-shite, it's the latter that's the most important. We need to finish the season in positive style, both on the pitch and in the stands, as the reconstruction is far from over.

Assuming there's no hope of signing Dawson, he will need replacing – whether by Wheater, Bolger, Mills, Ream or a newcomer; assuming Alonso understandably walks away, we'll need a left-back, especially if this narrow-midfield formation is a regular option; there'll also be a decision to make on whether to bid for Spearing, considering we have Medo, Andrews, Holden, Vela and Pratley.

At least Mark Davies has signed an extension. It's never a guarantee, but it would give us more comeback if he leaves. That said, more and more players seem to be signing up to Freedman's ethos. I'm glad to see that's happening among the support too – slowly, perhaps, and not universally, but wins don't half help improve the atmosphere.

Welcome back, DSB. An excellent post as ever.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Thank you. I needed a break, but after a quick check I ascertained it was a lot less nihilistic on here, probably because we've won three in five unbeaten games. Presumably we'll now go to hell in a handcart.

[thebish]

Thank you. I needed a break, but after a quick check I ascertained it was a lot less nihilistic on here, probably because we've won three in five unbeaten games. Presumably we'll now go to hell in a handcart.

and it will be ALL YOUR FAULT!!!