League One, 2022/23

[GhostoftheBok]

The question is who of Plymouth and Sheff Wednesday will match our end of season total of 101pts, which is now as inevitable as the sun rising. Might as well just give us the trophy now.

[Worthy4England]

I think some of the glass half full folks (Rose Tinters as they've previously been known in this parish) are going to need a fuller glass than half, to beat the current maths...

It's interesting (or maybe not) to compare where we all were after 32 games in 2017, because the two seasons aren't really comparable when looking at the teams in front of us.

Current BWFC - P32 W17 D8 L7 F43 A23 GD25 PTS 59 - 3rd in table
2017 Promotion BWFC - P32 W17 D7 L8 F44 A27 GD17 PTS 58 - 4th in table

So we're currently marginally ahead of 2017 woo hoo.

The problem we have this year is that the teams in front of us have one or two games in hand - if we surmise they win them, then we'd have Sheff Weds on 71 and Plymouth on 70 points.

In 2017 we had three teams in front of us after 32 games, but we had the games in hand over them.

Fleetwood +3 points on 61 but played 2 more than us (and if memory serves we still had to play them)
Scunthorpe +3 points on 61 but played 1 more than us
Sheff U +10 points on 68 but played 2 more

Scunthorpe didn't win a game between G32 and G37 and lost 5, and like for like with Fleetwood we were in front of them like for like at the 32 game mark.

At 38 games we had a 4 point cushion, to the team in 3rd and a 6 point gap to Sheffield U.

[boltonboris]

We played Fleetwood in the March and beat them 4-2 - It ended an 18 game undefeated run for the Cod Army!

[GhostoftheBok]

I think some of the glass half full folks (Rose Tinters as they've previously been known in this parish) are going to need a fuller glass than half, to beat the current maths...

So you're saying there's a chance?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I'm thoroughly enjoying watching my team play football.

I suspect, given the maths, that we're somewhat unlikely to finish top two. But if we go into the playoffs in form, owt could happen.

[The_Gun]

If we win again on Saturday then maybe I'll start thinking about top two. Still, that would be more in the hope that Plymouth falter because their really good keeper is crocked, which hasn't transpired yet.

[BWFC_Insane]

I'm thoroughly enjoying watching my team play football.

I suspect, given the maths, that we're somewhat unlikely to finish top two. But if we go into the playoffs in form, owt could happen.

Yeah this. We don't look like 'scrape into the play offs but be cannon fodder' right now. We look like a team nobody would relish playing. Play offs don't always work out how you expect so its still a bit of a game of chance.

But I'd rather go in firing and ready than scraping through.

[Worthy4England]

I think some of the glass half full folks (Rose Tinters as they've previously been known in this parish) are going to need a fuller glass than half, to beat the current maths...

So you're saying there's a chance?

In the words of Psalm 23:5 Apparently for goodness and mercy to follow, there are some baseline criteria, without which our cup will not runneth over...

It indicates that the table needs to be prepared in the presence of mine enemies, which it has, and I can just about see a path of righteousness, but I'm really struggling with green pastures...

I'm not reaching for my William Hill app...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Well you lucky lot, I managed to crank up the extrapolator again...

Reminder: this is what the final table would look like IF (I know) teams continued their recent form (over 6/8/10/12 games) until the end of the season, with that hypothetical gain added to their current haul.
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table.jpg (44.59 KiB) Viewed 500 times

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However you describe 'recent', we're now on course for 90+ points. It's still not enough for automatic promotion, because so are Plymouth. But it's notable how the gap narrows with more recent form, to an agonising half-point over last-6. Clearly we need Plymouth to wobble as well as us to maintain steam, but it's going in the right direction.

Interesting stuff below us is that Wycombe now reach the playoffs in all four scenarios (although look how tight it would be on last-six form, with two points covering the four below us). Derby and Barnsley the other two contenders, with Shrews falling just short and the two East Anglian sides way behind. Worth noting that Ipswich are on course for (a mere) mid-70s total even if you take their form over the last 12 games - that's 38% of their season so far, and thus hardly a pan-flash.

[Worthy4England]

Feels like we need Plymouth to do a "Scunthorpe" from 2017 - and obviously maintain our own form...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Feels like we need Plymouth to do a "Scunthorpe" from 2017 - and obviously maintain our own form...

Pity we can't wind them up by signing Karacan again.

[Worthy4England]

Feels like we need Plymouth to do a "Scunthorpe" from 2017 - and obviously maintain our own form...

Pity we can't wind them up by signing Karacan again.

Aye, we'd be able to add him to our injury list...

[Prufrock]

Well you lucky lot, I managed to crank up the extrapolator again...

Reminder: this is what the final table would look like IF (I know) teams continued their recent form (over 6/8/10/12 games) until the end of the season, with that hypothetical gain added to their current haul.
.
table.jpg
.
However you describe 'recent', we're now on course for 90+ points. It's still not enough for automatic promotion, because so are Plymouth. But it's notable how the gap narrows with more recent form, to an agonising half-point over last-6. Clearly we need Plymouth to wobble as well as us to maintain steam, but it's going in the right direction.

Interesting stuff below us is that Wycombe now reach the playoffs in all four scenarios (although look how tight it would be on last-six form, with two points covering the four below us). Derby and Barnsley the other two contenders, with Shrews falling just short and the two East Anglian sides way behind. Worth noting that Ipswich are on course for (a mere) mid-70s total even if you take their form over the last 12 games - that's 38% of their season so far, and thus hardly a pan-flash.

We are finishing third, say we are finishing third.

20-25% chance of double Wembley. I'd snap your hand off for that.

[Worthy4England]

Well you lucky lot, I managed to crank up the extrapolator again...

Reminder: this is what the final table would look like IF (I know) teams continued their recent form (over 6/8/10/12 games) until the end of the season, with that hypothetical gain added to their current haul.
.
table.jpg
.
However you describe 'recent', we're now on course for 90+ points. It's still not enough for automatic promotion, because so are Plymouth. But it's notable how the gap narrows with more recent form, to an agonising half-point over last-6. Clearly we need Plymouth to wobble as well as us to maintain steam, but it's going in the right direction.

Interesting stuff below us is that Wycombe now reach the playoffs in all four scenarios (although look how tight it would be on last-six form, with two points covering the four below us). Derby and Barnsley the other two contenders, with Shrews falling just short and the two East Anglian sides way behind. Worth noting that Ipswich are on course for (a mere) mid-70s total even if you take their form over the last 12 games - that's 38% of their season so far, and thus hardly a pan-flash.

We are finishing third, say we are finishing third.

20-25% chance of double Wembley. I'd snap your hand off for that.

You don't even get a van to come home in anymore...

[GhostoftheBok]

Sheff Weds is our last game before that extended break we have to let other teams catch up. If we can go into that game within touching distance then it's all about beating them and piling the pressure on. We have no control over Plymouth now, but we can put Wycombe away and influence Ipswich and the Owls.

In all likelihood we finish top 6, but we have a faction of a chance to chase. The fact we get to play rivals means our own performances can make or break it, which is what you want.

We are capable of picking up a lot of points in that last 8 games. By then the top 2 might have completely gone and we could have been dumped out of the cup, but we have to go at these games believing that we will be touch-tight with Wednesday and coming off a Wembley win.

[Worthy4England]

Sheff Weds is our last game before that extended break we have to let other teams catch up. If we can go into that game within touching distance then it's all about beating them and piling the pressure on. We have no control over Plymouth now, but we can put Wycombe away and influence Ipswich and the Owls.

In all likelihood we finish top 6, but we have a faction of a chance to chase. The fact we get to play rivals means our own performances can make or break it, which is what you want.

We are capable of picking up a lot of points in that last 8 games. By then the top 2 might have completely gone and we could have been dumped out of the cup, but we have to go at these games believing that we will be touch-tight with Wednesday and coming off a Wembley win.

You could of course always use the table predictor here in as much or as little detail as you wished for the remaining matches

https://thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?competition=3

I only went down as far as Peterborough (so top 9 teams)

Final Table.jpg (47.71 KiB) Viewed 454 times

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Lot of faith in Ipswich there, Worthy, considering
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Ipswich.jpg (44.71 KiB) Viewed 452 times

[GhostoftheBok]

You could of course always use the table predictor here in as much or as little detail as you wished for the remaining matches

Na.

We're doing well at the moment, but it's a big gap to the top two. Everyone recognises that fact. However, you go in to each game looking at what it can offer you. If we lose to Wycombe on Saturday then we're again looking at how to make sure we secure top 6 against the challengers. What we will hope for is that we beat them and finish their hopes of catching us, if not the sides blow us.

You can't predict the games too far ahead in this run. There's too much psychology involved. You can look and see a tougher or easier fixture, but if you can breathe down a team's neck then those calculations start to change.

If we can drag Sheff Weds to within 3 points by the time they play their games in hand then we can at least test their character. If they come through that, fair enough; but there's a few in that squad who failed the relegation battle test mentally and who I'd like to see tested again.

All we can do is make them earn it. If they do then fair play to them and they will deserve to go up. At this stage and with how we are playing we do have to make them, though. We are capable of putting them under real pressure and then we just have to see whether they crack or not.

If we drop off and they don't have that pressure then it could turn into a coronation for the top two, sure. Our job is to keep throwing wood on the fire.

[Worthy4England]

You could of course always use the table predictor here in as much or as little detail as you wished for the remaining matches

Na.

We're doing well at the moment, but it's a big gap to the top two. Everyone recognises that fact. However, you go in to each game looking at what it can offer you. If we lose to Wycombe on Saturday then we're again looking at how to make sure we secure top 6 against the challengers. What we will hope for is that we beat them and finish their hopes of catching us, if not the sides blow us.

You can't predict the games too far ahead in this run. There's too much psychology involved. You can look and see a tougher or easier fixture, but if you can breathe down a team's neck then those calculations start to change.

If we can drag Sheff Weds to within 3 points by the time they play their games in hand then we can at least test their character. If they come through that, fair enough; but there's a few in that squad who failed the relegation battle test mentally and who I'd like to see tested again.

All we can do is make them earn it. If they do then fair play to them and they will deserve to go up. At this stage and with how we are playing we do have to make them, though. We are capable of putting them under real pressure and then we just have to see whether they crack or not.

If we drop off and they don't have that pressure then it could turn into a coronation for the top two, sure. Our job is to keep throwing wood on the fire.

Sure - all realistic and well stated points, but I think you and Barnetto are underestimating the whole string of variables I factored in, when compiling my results sheets for each game. The old "pressure switch" was right up there, alongside the "bottled it" factor!

[nicholaldo]

I've just noticed Ipswich Town captain Sam Morsy was arguing with his own supporters at full-time last night.

They haven't won very many recently either.