Down in The Valley, something stirred. V Charlton Athletic away Sat Aug 24th 3-0 'clock.

[nicholaldo]

I'm not sure why it'd need to be fifteen rather than ten.

But I think a plausible scenario might be that he again does well enough to keep us in the hunt, him in a job, and the pitchforks in the shed, all while not doing well enough to get us promoted, and another season goes down the swanny.

[GhostoftheBok]

I'm not sure why it'd need to be fifteen rather than ten.

15 takes us to the back-to-back aways of Stockport and Rotherham.

It gives us a really good look at whether Evatt can win the difficult games and also gives a new manager a better run of fixtures on the other side.

It's also just a larger sample size, Three blocks of 5, which lets you get decent idea of your PPG - especially given the mix of fixtures.

A new manager would then get at least a month to evaluate the squad before the transfer window in January, assuming they don't need more than 2 weeks to appoint a successor.

[BWFC_Insane]

I'm not sure why it'd need to be fifteen rather than ten.

But I think a plausible scenario might be that he again does well enough to keep us in the hunt, him in a job, and the pitchforks in the shed, all while not doing well enough to get us promoted, and another season goes down the swanny.

That’s exactly what will happen and what has to be avoided, but won’t be. It’s why for me if we aren’t top two or very very close in a month - you make the call and make it decisively. Otherwise we let another season slip by.

[nicholaldo]

I'm not sure why it'd need to be fifteen rather than ten.

15 takes us to the back-to-back aways of Stockport and Rotherham.

It gives us a really good look at whether Evatt can win the difficult games and also gives a new manager a better run of fixtures on the other side.

It's also just a larger sample size, Three blocks of 5, which lets you get decent idea of your PPG - especially given the mix of fixtures.

A new manager would then get at least a month to evaluate the squad before the transfer window in January, assuming they don't need more than 2 weeks to appoint a successor.

Yes, that makes sense. Certainly the argument re. the big fixtures.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Plymouth is another interesting outlier, IMO. They did very well to get promoted using several key loanees - an unusual and arguably unsustainable amount. It's something we've done a bit of, but shied away from somewhat (although I expect one or two young 'uns in over the next week).

Agree mate - they used a lot of loanees, was that the season we had Bradley and Traff in nets (successful) and a further raft with Shortire, Beck, Mbete - so 5 also - maybe somewhat less effective overall.

Sliiiiightly different in that we only borrowed three (Traf, Bradley, Beck) in the summer window - they borrowed five for the season (and when Whittaker was recalled in January, they added a lad called Matete).

In our January, Beck went back after we bought Randell; Mbete was a late cover-loan after Aimson left and Iredale and Johnston were injured; Shoretire was a 10 gamble that failed. Oh and we also loaned another lad that January, some bloke called Nlundulu, no idea what happened to him....

Their loans came off, ours didn't. It happens. What's perhaps more surprising is that after the Brad/Traf success, the next summer we only borrowed two – Paris and Zac Ashworth. (In January we added Ogbeta, Ramsay and Caleb Taylor - a harsh onlooker would call that one success out of five for the season.)

[GhostoftheBok]

Yes, that makes sense. Certainly the argument re. the big fixtures.

Yeah. It's also a weekend game with no Tuesday game after, so it's a clear week to get someone in and give them some days on the training pitch before their first fixture - which is at home to Blackpool, to maximise the new manager bounce.

These things rarely work out as you plan them, but if you had to make a call it'd be then.

[GhostoftheBok]

Ramsay

God knows what's happened to that kid, but he's currently not starting for a fairly poor Wigan side (though is getting some minutes).

Scotland's next big thing has lost his way fairly magnificently.

I do hate to see talent go to waste.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I'm not sure why it'd need to be fifteen rather than ten.

15 takes us to the back-to-back aways of Stockport and Rotherham.

It gives us a really good look at whether Evatt can win the difficult games and also gives a new manager a better run of fixtures on the other side.

It's also just a larger sample size, Three blocks of 5, which lets you get decent idea of your PPG - especially given the mix of fixtures.

A new manager would then get at least a month to evaluate the squad before the transfer window in January, assuming they don't need more than 2 weeks to appoint a successor.

Yes, that makes sense. Certainly the argument re. the big fixtures.

The big fixtures thing works both ways, though. If he loses against Stockport and Rotherham that's even more points to make up. If he's punted after 10 – Stevenage away, in which defeat would certainly be unpopular - the new fella would get a warm-up home to Burton before two potential six-pointers against Birmingham and Peterborough, and that's before the Stockport/Rotherham double-header.

Yeah that's right - our 12th, 13th, 14th and 15th fixtures are all against promotion rivals. To last that long and be given the benefit of that doubt he'll have to demolish the alleged also-rans we're playing before then. As I say, there's only Huddersfield where a non-win would be acceptable to many.

And if he wins all the others as far as Game 10 Stevenage and draws with Huddersfield, we'll be on 23pts - an acceptable run-rate

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Yes, that makes sense. Certainly the argument re. the big fixtures.

Yeah. It's also a weekend game with no Tuesday game after, so it's a clear week to get someone in and give them some days on the training pitch before their first fixture - which is at home to Blackpool, to maximise the new manager bounce.

These things rarely work out as you plan them, but if you had to make a call it'd be then.

Stevenage (Game 10) is also a Saturday before a clear midweek followed by home to Burton... and then Birmingham away. So that does make a sort of sense too.

[GhostoftheBok]

Stevenage (Game 10) is also a Saturday before a clear midweek followed by home to Burton... and then Birmingham away. So that does make a sort of sense too.

If he's really struggling, yes. My issue is that I think he could be doing well by game 10 and well off it by game 15.

If he's dead by game 10 then by all means.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Stevenage (Game 10) is also a Saturday before a clear midweek followed by home to Burton... and then Birmingham away. So that does make a sort of sense too.

If he's really struggling, yes. My issue is that I think he could be doing well by game 10 and well off it by game 15.

If he's dead by game 10 then by all means.

Oh, sure. As I say, barring Huddersfield, all those league games look like we *should* (not just 'could') win them, which would leave us on 23pts after 10 games and presumably at least top-two.

However, if we then lose to Birmingham, Peterborough, Stockport and Rotherham in short order, we presumably won't still be top two, and any belief will be washed away again. Understandably so if the results end LLLL.

[GhostoftheBok]

Exactly.

22nd of November to October 23rd is:

Brum (A)
Posh (H)
Stockport (A)
Rotherham (A)
Blackpool (H)

That's a run that makes or breaks champions.

[Mar]

Exactly.

22nd of November to October 23rd is:

Brum (A)
Posh (H)
Stockport (A)
Rotherham (A)
Blackpool (H)

That's a run that makes or breaks champions.

Makes it even harder traveling backwards in time.


Might be one of those seasons where we're poor first half and need a rallying cry in the latter half. Weve missed that momentum in the last two seasons

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Might be one of those seasons where we're poor first half and need a rallying cry in the latter half. Weve missed that momentum in the last two seasons

If we're poor first half we'll need 4ppg from January... unless you're talking about going up through the playoffs, in which case I doubt that league position would quell the rebellion.

[BWFC_Insane]

Might be one of those seasons where we're poor first half and need a rallying cry in the latter half. Weve missed that momentum in the last two seasons

If we're poor first half we'll need 4ppg from January... unless you're talking about going up through the playoffs, in which case I doubt that league position would quell the rebellion.

For a few reasons this league generally and this season specifically is not one you’d fancy playing catch up in.

The league is definitely much stronger than it was last season which was a golden chance really. The side finishing 6th this season will be substantially better than Oxford were last season.

[TANGODANCER]

"The time has come," the Walrus said, "To talk of many things: Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax— Of cabbages—and kings— And Why The Whites don't learn to fly, because they have no wings"

Score two goals ( one if you can prevent the opposition scoring) and defend them. This is the only formula that matters or works. You can talk the clock or the alphabet round and back again, but promotion depends solely on this and this alone. Amen.

[Bertie Wooster]

Evatt's football has been found out end of - managers have worked out how to nullify the way we play, we are now quite easy to play against as we are predictable

[GhostoftheBok]

A quick search would seem to indicate that Evatt's football was "found out" years ago.

If people keep saying it they're bound to be right eventually, I suppose.

[Prufrock]

Stronger league is likely to mean lower pace. More good teams to take points of each other.

Not that we should assume that, or that he'll get the leeway. And it means not much room for error against the teams not in that pack.

[BWFC_Insane]

Stronger league is likely to mean lower pace. More good teams to take points of each other.

Not that we should assume that, or that he'll get the leeway. And it means not much room for error against the teams not in that pack.

Maybe for top 6 but I suspect top 2 will be 90 plus again.

I suspect that for us given our susceptibilities on poor pitches and against strong pressing teams we will be out of it if we aren’t there or thereabouts come end of September sort of time. We were second with games in hand against bang average derby and still couldn’t live with it.