They're all MUST WIN from now on.

[coffeymagic]

Quiet in here this morning. Browsing the fixture list and the phrase 'They're all cup finals from now on' popped into my mind.

Trying to work out an eventual points total I came up with...

Unwinable games. A total of one point from these games would be a major bonus.

United (a), Chelsea (a), Man City (a),

Unlikey to win. Again a point from this lot would be 'great' (meaning shit).

Fulham (a), Everton (a), Liverpool (h), Arsenal (h), Villa (a), Spurs (h), Stoke (a), Newcastle (a)

Difficult to win. A wing and a prayer might see us through some of these.

Blackburn (a), Norwich (a), Newcastle (h), Sunderland (a),

Making these the one's we have to win. Under normal circumstances I'd fancy our chances against this lot but with our current form.....

Wolves (h), Wigan (h), QPR (h), Blackburn (h), Wolves (a), Fulham (h), Swansea (h), WBA (h)

There's room for manoeuvre but let's say we win all our 'must win' games that gives us an extra 24 ponts. Plus the nine we've got that erm...hold on...not enough.

Don't know why we'd suddenly start winning after we've been stuck in this rut for so long.

Don't like being Mr Doom and Gloom by the way.

[Jakerbeef]

The IF Thread


Write-offs: United, Chelsea, City

Draw would be lovely: Liverpool, Arsenal(h)

Draw would be handy: Fulham, Spurs(h), Wolves, Blackburn, Norwich, Sunderland, Fulham, Everton, Villa, Stoke, Newcastle (away)

Need to win: Wolves, Wigan. QPR, Blackburn, Swansea, WBA, Newcastle (all home)


I still think with enough draws we'll get out of this one...although beating the fellow relegation outfits will be the crucial bit. Home and away results against Wigan, Blackburn and Wolves would do us wonders...

You don't have to be a good team, just better than 3 of the others...

[lovethesmellofnapalm]

stop it. just stop it now.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I've noticed something in our favour: only once in our 11-season top-flight stay have there been so many poor teams. And that's not a hunch, it's (somewhat) statistically provable.

By this stage in the season, 15 games in, the league's starting to stratify into challengers, chasers, stragglers and strugglers. Taking the point-per-game average as the minimum for survival - arguable, but more on this later - we can check how many teams were averaging a point per game or less at this stage in each season.

2011/12 7
2010/11 4
2009/10 4
2008/09 4
2007/08 9
2006/07 5
2005/06 4
2004/05 6
2003/04 4
2002/03 4
2001/02 4

The only time more teams than this were struggling was in late 2007, when everyone up to Birmingham in 12th were struggling. That was the season we stayed up in 16th with 37 points, while Fulham survived on goal difference a point behind us - that is, we both got away with averaging less than a point per game.

Now, this was the season in which Derby limped to 11 points, but as I've said before, having whipping boys doesn't usually lower the points requirement so much as raise it - because even relegation battlers usually get good returns against the crap-acts. What was unusual that season is that three teams topped 80 points (MU 87, Chelsea 85, Arsenal 83) - the previous season, Liverpool finished third with "just" 68pts.

In other words, we should hope the title race stays open and the contenders hoover up as many points as possible. And hope we don't do a Derby.

[boltonboris]

So conceivably, we're looking at a lower than normal survival points target.

I think with the gulf in class between the top half and bottom half, we could probably look at the 35pt benchmark, as opposed to the 40..

Still, it's a big ask at this stage, to even get to that

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Oh, certainly. It really is hard to see where our next win will come from. We've only won three in 15, and I wouldn't fancy us to do the double over any of those teams - yea, even Wigan at the mo.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Oh, certainly. It really is hard to see where our next win will come from. We've only won three in 15, and I wouldn't fancy us to do the double over any of those teams - yea, even Wigan at the mo.

[Bruce Rioja]

I've noticed something in our favour: only once in our 11-season top-flight stay have there been so many poor teams. And that's not a hunch, it's (somewhat) statistically provable.

Blimey. It's not even Christmas and we're looking for snookers!

[thebish]

Oh, certainly. It really is hard to see where our next win will come from. We've only won three in 15, and I wouldn't fancy us to do the double over any of those teams - yea, even Wigan at the mo.

craven cottage!

[thebish]

I've noticed something in our favour: only once in our 11-season top-flight stay have there been so many poor teams. And that's not a hunch, it's (somewhat) statistically provable.

Blimey. It's not even Christmas and we're looking for snookers!

[Worthy4England]

So conceivably, we're looking at a lower than normal survival points target.

I think with the gulf in class between the top half and bottom half, we could probably look at the 35pt benchmark, as opposed to the 40..

Still, it's a big ask at this stage, to even get to that

I think only twice since the Div cut to 20 teams, that 40 has been needed.

[Prufrock]

I've noticed something in our favour: only once in our 11-season top-flight stay have there been so many poor teams. And that's not a hunch, it's (somewhat) statistically provable.

Blimey. It's not even Christmas and we're looking for snookers!

[One Hump Or Two?]

The top of the table also bears out DSB's theory that the survival target could be very low this year. All of the top four are on more than 2 ppg at the moment - which means that they could well all finish on 80 points plus.

But it's completely academic unless we find a way to stop being so sh1t - and quickly, before we lose touch altogether (assuming we haven't already). At the moment I wouldn't put a tanner on us reaching > 20 points, let alone > 30.

[Prufrock]

Has anyone ever stayed up with nine points?

[Wandering Willy]

[Worthy4England]

Has anyone ever stayed up with nine points?

Without looking it up specifically, not when the other 19 teams already have more than 9.

Theoretically 3 of the teams up to Villa in 9th could go into administration and get docked 10 points, have to sell their entire squads and not win another point all season.

This could make us safe already, which would be a huge positive step as we're sometimes not mathematically safe until after Easter, although if Villa and Norwich were two of the teams, we'd have to improve our GD substantially.

I don't recall this occurring previously, but I'd have to check, to be sure.

[Lord Kangana]

Rumours tonight that Blackburn might struggle to pay their players this month.

Don't rule it out.

[Wandering Willy]

Has anyone ever stayed up with nine points?

Without looking it up specifically, not when the other 19 teams already have more than 9.

Theoretically 3 of the teams up to Villa in 9th could go into administration and get docked 10 points, have to sell their entire squads and not win another point all season.

This could make us safe already, which would be a huge positive step as we're sometimes not mathematically safe until after Easter, although if Villa and Norwich were two of the teams, we'd have to improve our GD substantially.

I don't recall this occurring previously, but I'd have to check, to be sure.

Positive thinking - I like it.

I will point out that for all the discussions about formations, red cards, injuries and such like it has become clear to me that there is one reason for our lack of success - during our better spells I think you will find that one particular poster would declare prior to a game that we were "doomed". This has not happened for a long while.

He has a lot to answer for.

[Prufrock]

Has anyone ever stayed up with nine points?

Without looking it up specifically, not when the other 19 teams already have more than 9.

Theoretically 3 of the teams up to Villa in 9th could go into administration and get docked 10 points, have to sell their entire squads and not win another point all season.

This could make us safe already, which would be a huge positive step as we're sometimes not mathematically safe until after Easter, although if Villa and Norwich were two of the teams, we'd have to improve our GD substantially.

I don't recall this occurring previously, but I'd have to check, to be sure.

Surely we'd still be f*cked as they must have to play each other at least once, this one of them getting points?

[Worthy4England]

Someone needs to e-mail Owen, and tell him his strategy is fooked!