Contract expiry

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Re: Contract expiry

Post by Prufrock » Sat Feb 19, 2022 1:52 pm

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 1:25 pm
GhostoftheBok wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 12:57 pm
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 10:05 am
Key there is "at this level", which goes back to my original point. Surely he / his agent will have a clause in any new contract we offer which gears his wages to whichever division we're in anyway.
As to "at this level", Santos' attributes are rare in any division in any country. He's a fast, powerful, 6'5" centre back who can play with the ball at feet and has passing vision. People can also run off his weaknesses, but players like that usually cost big money.
He was also our worst signing since Cid for half a season at a division lower last season, and being 6'5" is neither here nor there when you can't head for shit. He has of course shown admirable qualities during both the second half of last season and this one to date, however, I'm just a little more wary of his shortcomings than you.
Which is all fair. What I would say on last year is that he hadn't really played any football at all in months due to an injury, and before that he'd barely trained for even longer as he was managing something. He certainly looked "ring-rusty" shall we say!

I think a new contract makes sense. We want him here next year. I think he can play comfortably a league up but even if was going to struggle he'd be in that team if we went up (we're not signing a whole defence) and he'd defo be in it if we stay down. But with one year on his deal, it's probably new contract or sell. And I think we'd be weaker without him next year whatever.
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Re: Contract expiry

Post by Mar » Sat Feb 19, 2022 4:21 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 1:52 pm
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 1:25 pm
GhostoftheBok wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 12:57 pm
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 10:05 am
Key there is "at this level", which goes back to my original point. Surely he / his agent will have a clause in any new contract we offer which gears his wages to whichever division we're in anyway.
As to "at this level", Santos' attributes are rare in any division in any country. He's a fast, powerful, 6'5" centre back who can play with the ball at feet and has passing vision. People can also run off his weaknesses, but players like that usually cost big money.
He was also our worst signing since Cid for half a season at a division lower last season, and being 6'5" is neither here nor there when you can't head for shit. He has of course shown admirable qualities during both the second half of last season and this one to date, however, I'm just a little more wary of his shortcomings than you.
Which is all fair. What I would say on last year is that he hadn't really played any football at all in months due to an injury, and before that he'd barely trained for even longer as he was managing something. He certainly looked "ring-rusty" shall we say!

I think a new contract makes sense. We want him here next year. I think he can play comfortably a league up but even if was going to struggle he'd be in that team if we went up (we're not signing a whole defence) and he'd defo be in it if we stay down. But with one year on his deal, it's probably new contract or sell. And I think we'd be weaker without him next year whatever.
Worse signing for half a season is a bit of a stretch, especially given the other players that didn't make the grade. More than culpable granted, but that's likely to be his position at the time. I'm sure the likes of Comley didn't help.

As for Santos' short comings, they can be worked on. What is noticeable though is his level of improvement in his time at the club and how well he fits the system. Contract extension definitely desired.

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Re: Contract expiry

Post by Prufrock » Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:19 pm

Yeah, he was dreadful for about 6 weeks. And then very up and down, some good, some bad, some middling.

As someone who crucified him early days I think he's arguably the one with the highest ceiling. Got everything you want in a defender. Only limitations are between the ears, and he's improving.

He's only 3 years older than Johnstone.
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Re: Contract expiry

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:22 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:19 pm
I think he's arguably the one with the highest ceiling.
Fairly sure you're arguing with yourself there - didn't you say it was Morley? :D

(I can see a case for either, but right now I'd lean Morley)

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Re: Contract expiry

Post by Prufrock » Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:30 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:22 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:19 pm
I think he's arguably the one with the highest ceiling.
Fairly sure you're arguing with yourself there - didn't you say it was Morley? :D

(I can see a case for either, but right now I'd lean Morley)
I'm not a lawyer for nothing. The word arguably does a lot :D

Though I've just checked and I only said he had a high ceiling :fingers: . I'm careful with my superlatives. It seems.

It's a tough one, Trafford arguably has the highest, but it's furthest from it. Whereas Rico is a long way there but still more to grow I reckon.
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Re: Contract expiry

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:33 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:30 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:22 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:19 pm
I think he's arguably the one with the highest ceiling.
Fairly sure you're arguing with yourself there - didn't you say it was Morley? :D

(I can see a case for either, but right now I'd lean Morley)
I'm not a lawyer for nothing. The word arguably does a lot :D

Though I've just checked and I only said he had a high ceiling :fingers: . I'm careful with my superlatives. It seems.

It's a tough one, Trafford arguably has the highest, but it's furthest from it. Whereas Rico is a long way there but still more to grow I reckon.
All fair. Objection overruled.

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Re: Contract expiry

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:53 am

Prufrock wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:30 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:22 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:19 pm
I think he's arguably the one with the highest ceiling.
Fairly sure you're arguing with yourself there - didn't you say it was Morley? :D

(I can see a case for either, but right now I'd lean Morley)
I'm not a lawyer for nothing. The word arguably does a lot :D

Though I've just checked and I only said he had a high ceiling :fingers: . I'm careful with my superlatives. It seems.

It's a tough one, Trafford arguably has the highest, but it's furthest from it. Whereas Rico is a long way there but still more to grow I reckon.
You could have gone with two high ceilings, the metaphorical one for Morley as he's 5'10 v the physical one for Santos....Bets well and truly hedged!

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Re: Contract expiry

Post by GhostoftheBok » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:01 am

Saying we know what a player's "ceiling" is when we don't get to see them training every day is really questionable.

It leads to things like people thinking Lee Sharpe was going to be world class and Ryan Giggs wasn't good enough.

It's especially dodgy after so little time watching some of them play.

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Re: Contract expiry

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:13 am

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:01 am
Saying we know what a player's "ceiling" is when we don't get to see them training every day is really questionable.

It leads to things like people thinking Lee Sharpe was going to be world class and Ryan Giggs wasn't good enough.

It's especially dodgy after so little time watching some of them play.
Obviously we're working on a limited dataset compared to the coaches but we can only go off the opinions we form from the evidence we see. Otherwise, it's a forum-closer.

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Re: Contract expiry

Post by Prufrock » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:26 am

Well exactly! It seems less pointlessly speculative to be than talking about who we'd rest when we have almost none of the information we'd need to have a view on that, but it passes the time!
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Re: Contract expiry

Post by The_Gun » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:33 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:53 am
Prufrock wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:30 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:22 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:19 pm
I think he's arguably the one with the highest ceiling.
Fairly sure you're arguing with yourself there - didn't you say it was Morley? :D

(I can see a case for either, but right now I'd lean Morley)
I'm not a lawyer for nothing. The word arguably does a lot :D

Though I've just checked and I only said he had a high ceiling :fingers: . I'm careful with my superlatives. It seems.

It's a tough one, Trafford arguably has the highest, but it's furthest from it. Whereas Rico is a long way there but still more to grow I reckon.
You could have gone with two high ceilings, the metaphorical one for Morley as he's 5'10 v the physical one for Santos....Bets well and truly hedged!
Morley listed at anywhere between 5’7 and 6’1 on that there t’internet. Not seen him in person, but he looks quite tall to me.

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Re: Contract expiry

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:35 am

Even if you have every stat at your fingertips, it's still a guess...What ceiling did Maddison have when we signed him? :-)

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Re: Contract expiry

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:36 am

The_Gun wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:33 am
Worthy4England wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:53 am
Prufrock wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:30 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:22 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 5:19 pm
I think he's arguably the one with the highest ceiling.
Fairly sure you're arguing with yourself there - didn't you say it was Morley? :D

(I can see a case for either, but right now I'd lean Morley)
I'm not a lawyer for nothing. The word arguably does a lot :D

Though I've just checked and I only said he had a high ceiling :fingers: . I'm careful with my superlatives. It seems.

It's a tough one, Trafford arguably has the highest, but it's furthest from it. Whereas Rico is a long way there but still more to grow I reckon.
You could have gone with two high ceilings, the metaphorical one for Morley as he's 5'10 v the physical one for Santos....Bets well and truly hedged!
Morley listed at anywhere between 5’7 and 6’1 on that there t’internet. Not seen him in person, but he looks quite tall to me.
Aye - didn't look it up. Complete punt! :-)

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Re: Contract expiry

Post by GhostoftheBok » Sun Feb 20, 2022 12:34 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:26 am
Well exactly! It seems less pointlessly speculative to be than talking about who we'd rest when we have almost none of the information we'd need to have a view on that, but it passes the time!
Yeah, I thought people wouldn't like me saying that.

For me there's a difference between saying "This lad is a prospect" or "*IF* he can improve this and this he can play at a certain level" and saying "This player's ceiling is this and is higher than this player's ceiling."

It's the difference between saying "He looks like he needs a rest" and speculating about someone's specific blood glucose level.

If we want to use "ceiling" as a shorthand for "I think he's decent" then that's fair enough, but it sort of dilutes the utility of the term. Though I'm absolutely certain that I've done it myself at some point, as we're all hypocrites at times.

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Re: Contract expiry

Post by GhostoftheBok » Sun Feb 20, 2022 12:48 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:13 am
Obviously we're working on a limited dataset compared to the coaches but we can only go off the opinions we form from the evidence we see. Otherwise, it's a forum-closer.
Not really. We can still say all kinds of things about the player and what level they could play at *if* they can improve this, this and this. Whether they can or not is something we can't really assess without having watched their progression over a much longer period.

Gethin Jones, for example. I liked him when he arrived, but didn't think he could play in the Championship. I'm more confident now that he can improve to that level, based on watching his improvement over the past year and a half and seeing where and how he's improved. I still couldn't make an informed statement about his ceiling, though. That doesn't mean I can't talk here on a forum about whether he can go up another level, as I think he can.

That's why I tend to talk more about stuff that looks coachable and stuff that doesn't. I think the stuff holding Geth back from being a good Championship player are things that are coachable, rather than stuff he's stuck with; but I don't know how far he and the coaching team can take them.

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Re: Contract expiry

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Feb 20, 2022 12:58 pm

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 12:48 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:13 am
Obviously we're working on a limited dataset compared to the coaches but we can only go off the opinions we form from the evidence we see. Otherwise, it's a forum-closer.
Not really. We can still say all kinds of things about the player and what level they could play at *if* they can improve this, this and this. Whether they can or not is something we can't really assess without having watched their progression over a much longer period.

Gethin Jones, for example. I liked him when he arrived, but didn't think he could play in the Championship. I'm more confident now that he can improve to that level, based on watching his improvement over the past year and a half and seeing where and how he's improved. I still couldn't make an informed statement about his ceiling, though. That doesn't mean I can't talk here on a forum about whether he can go up another level, as I think he can.

That's why I tend to talk more about stuff that looks coachable and stuff that doesn't. I think the stuff holding Geth back from being a good Championship player are things that are coachable, rather than stuff he's stuck with; but I don't know how far he and the coaching team can take them.
Sorry, you've completely lost me. Can we or can we not, in your opinion, talk about player ceilings?

Is it the specific term that upsets you? I take it to mean how good a player could be, given the ability he has shown so far and the likelihood of rounding out that skillset. Obviously they're only approximations and guesstimations. A new coach, a new position, even a new diet can radically change a player's potential (for better or worse).

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Re: Contract expiry

Post by GhostoftheBok » Sun Feb 20, 2022 2:08 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 12:58 pm
Sorry, you've completely lost me. Can we or can we not, in your opinion, talk about player ceilings?

Is it the specific term that upsets you? I take it to mean how good a player could be, given the ability he has shown so far and the likelihood of rounding out that skillset. Obviously they're only approximations and guesstimations. A new coach, a new position, even a new diet can radically change a player's potential (for better or worse).
If we are treating "potential" and "ceiling" as interchangeable terms I've zero issues.

I normally wouldn't, but I'm happy to adjust.

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Re: Contract expiry

Post by nicholaldo » Sun Feb 20, 2022 5:42 pm

I've always considered potential and ceiling, with respect to a footballer's ability, to mean the same thing. What would the difference between the two words be?

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Re: Contract expiry

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Feb 20, 2022 6:12 pm

Here's a way of quickly visualising squad depth. There's actually 12 "positions" there because I'm not sure Xav and Izzy fit our current formation, unless we're agreeing Izzy is a wingbackup.
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Screenshot 2022-02-20 at 17.56.56.png
Screenshot 2022-02-20 at 17.56.56.png (97.88 KiB) Viewed 2236 times
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Red is contract expiring in the summer (Bolton contract for loanees; Xav is tied to Hamburg until 2023, Fopssey to Fulham to 2023, Traf is unknown).
Orange is contract expiring in 2023 [EDIT - I originally said 2024, wazzock], so ones we either haven't tied down or are still unsure about.
Green is contracted to at least 2024 (Morley and Charles are 2025).

Of the non-loanee reds, I wouldn't expect any to still be here next season, unless Evatt thinks Liam Gordon is worth it. That would leave us like this: (Note that I've left in the loanees, but there's no guarantees there.)
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Screenshot 2022-02-20 at 18.05.24.png
Screenshot 2022-02-20 at 18.05.24.png (85.02 KiB) Viewed 2236 times
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It's clear there that we're short on any depth, let alone competition, at the back. Rejigging to a back four makes that arguably even clearer:
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Screenshot 2022-02-20 at 18.07.37.png
Screenshot 2022-02-20 at 18.07.37.png (82.76 KiB) Viewed 2236 times
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What all that means is, as I've said elsewhere, that I would expect summer's signings to concentrate on the defence. Surely we need at least one centre-back to replace Baps, and even then we'd have five for three slots, and we know from this autumn how soon a squad can become transparently thin. We'll also need cover/competition for the full-back/wing-back slots, and that's a wide skillset to seek. It's set to be an interesting summer, but as with the players themselves, maybe the transfer excitement will be about quality rather than quantity.
Last edited by Dave Sutton's barnet on Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Contract expiry

Post by GhostoftheBok » Sun Feb 20, 2022 6:38 pm

I think the issue for Evatt and Markham will be wanting to continue to push that envelope of "the possible" in all areas of the squad, as well as Evatt specifically wanting to make sure nobody feels complacent. On Markham's side, there will need to be continued development of saleable assets.

That's why I think we will see another forward option come in in the summer, which may well see someone move on. I'd expect the new player to be younger, though not necessarily young. Someone with retained value who they expect to be a serious player - ala Charles.

I don't think there will be any panic about it, though. If they can't do the ideal deal they will likely stick with what they have.

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