The Debt.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

The difference, possibly, now being the influence of fair play for the biggest clubs. It stops the wages becoming astronomical at the top end and the filter down effect therefore may be significantly reduced this time.

I agree that up to this point there has been no profit in a top flight club. But the latest TV deal seems to have changed that significantly. As you say wage inflation may erode that BUT the influence of FFP in tandem may keep that somewhat under control.

My point was simply that as it stands an investor looks at the premiership and sees that if they had a premiership club and managed it well, there is a potential right now to turn a profit. In addition to other benefits financial and otherwise.

I don't think FFP will last. UEFA eased the regulations this summer to allow more investment: "We are just evolving from a period of austerity to one where we can offer more opportunities for sustainable growth and development." I also think it may well get questioned in court by, say, PSG.

Besides, under the very rules of FFP, if you get more money in you can spend more money. Guess where that's going? Clue: not better pies.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

I'll try hard not to speculate, instead I shall ask you questions. (Here goes:) [1] given all that you've written above ^ do you think it's a reasonable assumption to make that football (as a business) in its present format is unsustainable? [2] and that as the stakes rise due to the infall of larger amounts of money being matched and outdone by an even larger amount of spend, that someone somewhere will get very badly 'burnt'? [3] and that possibly, just possibly, it might be us? And finally [4], where on a scale of 0-10 (with 0 being an impossibility through to 10 being almost dead certainty) do you think the chances of Bolton Wanderers being liquidated (yes, liquidated, not just in administration) lie?

1. Define "football". The Premier League is only sustainable with a continued high level of investment from broadcast rights, which now forms easily the majority of clubs' income. Being so undiversified might worry many potential investors. It'd horrify Warren Buffet. Outside the Premier League, English football is terrifyingly overstretched, especially the Championship clubs, who as noted lost a quarter of a billion in 2013/14.
2. Yes. Football clubs aren't alone in being massively exposed - many individuals and companies are in heaps of debt, as a result of the last 20 years' historically low interest rates scooping out all savings and encouraging borrowing - but football clubs seem particularly vulnerable as they have enormous overheads and unguaranteed revenue streams. They're also vulnerable to being run by idiots, well-meaning or otherwise.
3. Yes, it might be us. There's no point denying it. We're in a bad position - bottom of the world's most indebted division.
4. I wouldn't want to put a number on it. Suffice it to say that I think it could happen, although it is unlikely to. To me, we've got too many tangible assets, primarily land (Euxton, Lostock, Macron), to be liquidated for want of a few tens of millions. But in my opinion it is entirely possible that we may have to completely recalibrate our expectations and live within our means to cut the running costs. That may mean many people losing their jobs, not least many of the current first-team squad.

Cheers.

[Lord Kangana]

3. Yes, it might be us. There's no point denying it. We're in a bad position - bottom of the world's most indebted division.

Whilst not wishing to pile on the misery... but does that mean we're the most indebted club in the, financially speaking, worst run division of world football?

I say it, because when a gravy train starts, most people assume it will never end. The phrase "football eating itself" was mentioned above - and I don't think as a whole it will - but it's my belief that whilst the larger clubs will grow exponentially as they hoover up everything from fans to talent to tv deals, the smaller clubs (and we're one, but make no mistake, a club as big as say Everton may eventually fall into the same bracket) will wither and die?

Are we in the vanguard of a step change in British football, or is it just more of the same cyclical economics?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

3. Yes, it might be us. There's no point denying it. We're in a bad position - bottom of the world's most indebted division.

Whilst not wishing to pile on the misery... but does that mean we're the most indebted club in the, financially speaking, worst run division of world football?

I say it, because when a gravy train starts, most people assume it will never end. The phrase "football eating itself" was mentioned above - and I don't think as a whole it will - but it's my belief that whilst the larger clubs will grow exponentially as they hoover up everything from fans to talent to tv deals, the smaller clubs (and we're one, but make no mistake, a club as big as say Everton may eventually fall into the same bracket) will wither and die?

Are we in the vanguard of a step change in British football, or is it just more of the same cyclical economics?

I don't know the answer to either of your big two questions, LK, but I'll express opinions.

Are we the division's most indebted club? Probably not if Eddie's debts are ignored, as it seems will have to be the case. I've just found this from the Daily Mail last August saying Championship clubs have a total £1.1bn in debt – almost double the annual turnover - and names us as the top debtors, although obviously that includes to Eddie. Our reported £182.1m debt is only a relative smidge higher than QPR's £179.6m. Have they also written off debts? Either way, I'd say they are entirely dependent on the benevolence of their owners - Tony Fernandes, the much less visible (but considerably more rich) Lakshmi Mittal and perhaps a couple of others.

Will things change? I think they have to. Recently the Championship has been one of football's most open divisions. I suspect that might change into more of a haves/have-nots job: say six, eight or ten Premiership victims or wannabes, spending perhaps double the more conservatively-run rest. We're already getting that to an extent, with Boro said to be offering £8m for Cameron Jerome.

[Lord Kangana]

Isn't that the same Cameron Jerome that was being touted for a lot less when Coyle was around? Or am I hugely mistaken?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Isn't that the same Cameron Jerome that was being touted for a lot less when Coyle was around? Or am I hugely mistaken?

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/ ... me-3325669

According to the above we offered £5m in June 2011, so it's weird that he went to Stoke for £4m the following month.

We got Ngog instead.

[BWFC_Insane]

Isn't that the same Cameron Jerome that was being touted for a lot less when Coyle was around? Or am I hugely mistaken?

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/ ... me-3325669

According to the above we offered £5m in June 2011, so it's weird that he went to Stoke for £4m the following month.

We got Ngog instead.

Which when you think about it, possibly shows our problems up. Cameron and NGog being completely different types of striker. It has the look of just wanting to spend money on somebody, anybody....

[Lord Kangana]

I'm sure I recall the discussion that he would have been the ideal replacement for SKD. Would he have made a difference, though, given that he was relegated with B'ham?

[BWFC_Insane]

I'm sure I recall the discussion that he would have been the ideal replacement for SKD. Would he have made a difference, though, given that he was relegated with B'ham?

Probably not. But I suspect would have been more successful than NGog.

[Hoboh]

<sigh> Speculating is all some people seem to do around here. In my case this is speculation informed by history, which again and again has proven that when money comes into football, it goes into players' pockets. I've been a football journalist for the thick end of two decades and I've seen this cycle again and again and again as contracts are renegotiated over the two or three years of the deal's lifetime. Messi gets £800,000 so Kompany gets £600,000 so Mangala gets £400,000 so Fazio gets £150,000 and you end up with the next-generation Matt f*cking Mills on £50,000. I believe they used to call it trickle-down economics. Except that it doesn't trickle down: in the same report, Championship clubs show a 105% ratio of wages to turnover and a not entirely unrelated combined pre-tax loss of £247m.

True, the new Premier League TV deal is significantly bigger, so there's more money to waste, but it would not surprise me at all if for the season of 2016/17 there are fewer clubs operating at a profit than a loss. Even digging a little deeper into the numbers for 2013/14 (repeat: the first season this millennium in which the Premier League clubs have aggregated a profit - just think about that for a minute) almost half of the £187m profit was the £80m Spurs banked for Bale. Sunderland lost £17m. Despite selling Lallana, Shaw and Chambers Southampton would have made a £9m loss had the owner not written off £38m of debt.

And what's most worrying of all is that partly because of the natural delay in individual renegotiations, the player contracts end up running after the TV deals do. Before the end of this decade we'll know whether BT has outmuscled Sky or will quietly retreat from the killing fields. Did someone say ITV:Digital?

I'll try hard not to speculate, instead I shall ask you questions. (Here goes:) [1] given all that you've written above ^ do you think it's a reasonable assumption to make that football (as a business) in its present format is unsustainable? [2] and that as the stakes rise due to the infall of larger amounts of money being matched and outdone by an even larger amount of spend, that someone somewhere will get very badly 'burnt'? [3] and that possibly, just possibly, it might be us? And finally [4], where on a scale of 0-10 (with 0 being an impossibility through to 10 being almost dead certainty) do you think the chances of Bolton Wanderers being liquidated (yes, liquidated, not just in administration) lie?

Now I wouldn't normally consider pulling you up on anything DSB, but....
You forgot to mention the leeches passing off as agents in that piece about who creams off the cash.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

How I wouldn't normally consider pulling you up on anything DSB, but....
You forgot to mention the leeches passing off as agents in that piece about who creams off the cash.

Well quite, it's all money flowing out of the game.

As a wedding gift, Cristiano Ronaldo bought his agent a Greek island. Dunno whether it's currently being alighted upon by desperate penniless refugees. That'd harsh your buzz.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

How I wouldn't normally consider pulling you up on anything DSB, but....
You forgot to mention the leeches passing off as agents in that piece about who creams off the cash.

Well quite, it's all money flowing out of the game.

As a wedding gift, Cristiano Ronaldo bought his agent a Greek island. Dunno whether it's currently being alighted upon by desperate penniless refugees. That'd harsh your buzz.

Private islands have bouncers, DSB.

(if you ever fancy getting one for your birthday, this is the premium website to track your paradise island down on http://www.privateislandsonline.com/ )

[Lost Leopard Spot]

When I wake up in the morning there'll be 11 days to Meltdown Day. Things is moving both glacially slow and speeding along like an out of control truck, simultaneously!

[thebish]

When I wake up in the morning there'll be 11 days to Meltdown Day. Things is moving both glacially slow and speeding along like an out of control truck, simultaneously!

11 days - that's fecking ages! calm down man!

[Harry Genshaw]

When I wake up in the morning there'll be 11 days to Meltdown Day. Things is moving both glacially slow and speeding along like an out of control truck, simultaneously!

11 days - that's fecking ages! calm down man!

Ah I'm glad it's you! I was going to ask you - at what day are we all allowed to become panic fannies? I suspect one or two of us are getting dangerously close!

[Lost Leopard Spot]

When I wake up in the morning there'll be 11 days to Meltdown Day. Things is moving both glacially slow and speeding along like an out of control truck, simultaneously!

11 days - that's fecking ages! calm down man!

Ah I'm glad it's you! I was going to ask you - at what day are we all allowed to become panic fannies? I suspect one or two of us are getting dangerously close!

It's OK Harry. You have five more days before you must sign up to the panic fannies collective

6th Today
7th Tomorrow Day
8th Yet Another Day
9th FA Cup Saturday
10th Hangover Day
11th Panic Fanny Day
12th Hoot-a-fanny Day
13th Unlucky For Someday
14th The Day After Unlucky For Someday
15th Thank 4uck it's Not Monday Yet
16th Even The Bish Becomes A Panic Fanny Day
17th Meltdown Day
18th The Day of Doooooooooooooooooooooooooooom

[Bruce Rioja]

Hope DSB doesn't mind me putting this up, however, there's an article on our decline in tomorrow's FourFourTwo.

[thebish]

When I wake up in the morning there'll be 11 days to Meltdown Day. Things is moving both glacially slow and speeding along like an out of control truck, simultaneously!

11 days - that's fecking ages! calm down man!

Ah I'm glad it's you! I was going to ask you - at what day are we all allowed to become panic fannies? I suspect one or two of us are getting dangerously close!

you can start thinking about the idea of delving into panic-fannydom on 17th Jan, you can become a fully-fledged panic-fanny on th 18th Jan - only to realise on the 19th Jan that you jumped into the fanny prematurely!

[Lost Leopard Spot]

When I wake up in the morning there'll be 11 days to Meltdown Day. Things is moving both glacially slow and speeding along like an out of control truck, simultaneously!

11 days - that's fecking ages! calm down man!

Ah I'm glad it's you! I was going to ask you - at what day are we all allowed to become panic fannies? I suspect one or two of us are getting dangerously close!

you can start thinking about the idea of delving into panic-fannydom on 17th Jan, you can become a fully-fledged panic-fanny on th 18th Jan - only to realise on the 19th Jan that you jumped into the fanny prematurely!

Oooooh Bish Kent, Man of Steel.

[malcd1]

Bolton. Interesting new bidder around. London based. But foreign cash. And with Prem experience. Want a quick answer.

Not sure who this. Any guesses?