The countdown- Where will we finish?

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Where will we finish the season?

Champions
5
8%
Runners Up
30
49%
1st Play off spot
19
31%
2nd Play off spot
5
8%
3rd Play off spot
2
3%
Final play off spot
0
No votes
Failure
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 61

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by jonnycooper » Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:36 pm

I have us in 3rd playoff spot,but such is this league,we could also finish as Champions!!

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:22 pm

Tombwfc wrote:I make it there have been 48 relegation's involving 39 teams from the Championship to League One and of those only 9 bounced straight back (five as Champions). So it would be a fair achievement for Parky if we did manage it this year.
Interesting. That made me dig out some research I did last March on former Premier League teams who were relegated from the Championship (original post is here). TL;DR: 13 of the 19 teams who have dipped from EPL to tier three have risen back to tier two.

Lumped together as a massive generalisation, it could be something like reversion to the mean - maybe many of those who dropped from the Championship had overstretched themselves (think Yeovil) while those who bounced back had simply underperformed to relegation (think Southampton).

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by DJBlu » Wed Feb 22, 2017 12:06 pm

My only fear is we have 9 away games to our 6 remaining home.

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by Tombwfc » Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:28 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Tombwfc wrote:I make it there have been 48 relegation's involving 39 teams from the Championship to League One and of those only 9 bounced straight back (five as Champions). So it would be a fair achievement for Parky if we did manage it this year.
Interesting. That made me dig out some research I did last March on former Premier League teams who were relegated from the Championship (original post is here). TL;DR: 13 of the 19 teams who have dipped from EPL to tier three have risen back to tier two.

Lumped together as a massive generalisation, it could be something like reversion to the mean - maybe many of those who dropped from the Championship had overstretched themselves (think Yeovil) while those who bounced back had simply underperformed to relegation (think Southampton).
Also, I should have said that this is from 00/01 onwards.

While on this particular tangent, I also found it interesting that from 00/01 to 15/16, of the 45 teams relegated from the Championship to League One - 75% were subsequently promoted or relegated again within three years (19 promoted, 15 relegated).

And of the sides that bounced back immediately to the Championship (small sample size, zero context), five yo-yo'd straight back down within three years and one (Norwich) went up to the Premier League. Leicester City were the outlier - in the midst of a run of top-10 finishes that ended with them going up under Pearson. The two other clubs, Wolves and Wigan, haven't yet completed three seasons back in the second tier but currently sit 19th and 22nd respectively.

What all that means, if anything, I don't know. But I don't imagine things are about to get dull around here, whatever happens in the remainder of this season.

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Mar 06, 2017 2:15 pm

Been number-crunching again, using the latest form tables (available here with tables showing form over the last six and last ten games). Bad news is, we're not in very good form. Good news is, not many teams are – at least not up our end.

Blades (1st in the proper table) are 4th over the last six, 8th over the last 10.
Fleetwood (2) are top over both.
Scunny (3) are 22nd (last six) and 16th (last 10).
Bolton (4) are 10th and 17th.
Bradford (5) are 11th and 11th.
Millwall (6) are 2nd and 2nd.
Southend (7) are 13th and 10th.
Bristol Rovers (8) are 14th and 15th.
Peterborough (9) are 17th and 20th.
Oxford (10) are 5th and 4th… but they’re 11 points behind us.

Over the last six games we’ve won 1.5ppg, over the last ten it’s 1.1ppg. Oxford have gathered 2ppg (over six), 1.9ppg (ten) – healthier, but not immensely so. If our respective averages continued over the next ten games – assuming Appleton's side aren’t in any way distracted by a Wembley final on Apr 2 – they would still be behind us. They’ve also got to play seven of the nine teams above them, including the leaders and the two who are bang in form. This is something Chairman Ken referred to at the weekend - there's a lot of games between the promotion hopefuls, and they can’t all win.

Worth a quick peep at those form-table top tens, and the teams' real position:

Last six:
1. Fleetwood (actual table: 2)
2. Millwall (6)
3. Bury (19)
4. Sheffield United (1)
5. Oxford (10)
6. Oldham (20)
7. Shrewsbury (18)
8. Walsall (12)
9. Northampton (15)
10. Bolton (4)

Last ten:
1. Fleetwood (2)
2. Millwall (6)
3. Shrewsbury (18)
4. Oxford (10)
5. Bury (19)
6. Walsall (12)
7. Oldham (20)
8. Sheffield United (1)
9. MK Dons (14)
10. Southend (7)

It seems that in the moment at the third division, the teams in the lower half are dominating the promotion hopefuls. Without breaking an embargo, suffice to say this apparent imbalance will be represented in the Manager of the Month nominations to be published this Wednesday morning. It should also be taken into account when predicting imminent doom. Which is not to say doom won't happen... it just might happen painfully slowly.

Me, I'm worried, but I'm still hopeful that with a bit of stability, we have the best man to coax good enough performances out of this disparate crew.

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by officer_dibble » Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:08 pm

Good work DSB.

For me 2 points from the last 3 has cost us. We'll look back at this and the Charlton/Swindon games in May.

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:05 pm

If someone offered me 6th place now I'd take it. This isn't blind panic. We've got 4 home games left and probably need to win all 4 plus pick up a win or two on the road for top 6.

Should we drop more home points we might need 3 away wins.

Whilst I hope we will pick up some form as players come back and the new players settle a bit it depends how quickly that happens. I struggle to see a result Saturday. At which point seemingly fragile confidence may be under serious strain.

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by Bruno3 » Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:01 pm

Sheffield and,more importantly, Scunthorpe are both playing away tonight. Here's hoping results go our way

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by palindromeofbolton » Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:57 pm

Sheff come from behind at HT to win but Scunny, having been 1-0 down at HT and pulling it back to 1-1, go down 2-1 at Charlton. :pissed:

We're now a point off their third place with two games in hand...

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by Harry Genshaw » Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:07 pm

Not that there was any danger of us nicking it, but 1st place has gone now. 2nd is still very much on if we avoid defeat Saturday
"Get your feet off the furniture you Oxbridge tw*t. You're not on a feckin punt now you know"

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:36 am

Harry Genshaw wrote:
Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:07 pm
Not that there was any danger of us nicking it, but 1st place has gone now. 2nd is still very much on if we avoid defeat Saturday.
Avoiding defeat is important but a win could be very good indeed. Not only would it put us a point behind them with a game in hand, it might also rocket-boost our confidence while denting theirs.

Scunny's wagon wheels are wobbling alarmingly. I mentioned it during the game on Saturday but last week they had the chairman telling fans to STFU:
Do you honestly believe that when a player doesn't control the ball with his first touch of the game we should be on his back? The rumours of contract disputes, unrest in the team, a not-bothered attitude, is so far from the truth it hurts when I read it and certain people just want to derail our success whether knowingly, or not, which is even more annoying.
...while the relatively inexperienced manager Graham Alexander (sacked by Fleetwood after failing to threaten promotion from this division) is telling one of his own players to stop whingeing and "grow up", comparing him rather needlessly with the best young player in England:
I need players who compete and train well everyday. Hakeeb (Adelakun) isn't doing that. He's the same age as Dele Alli and that's where we are. Hakeeb is not a boy. He needs to realise his abilities and direct them the right way.
I mean, in context, you can understand each of those quotes. You might even agree with them. But considering Scunny's recent results (most recent first: LLLDDDLL; no goals in last three home games, two of which were lost, one to Fleetwood and one to drop-dodgers Shrewsbury), it doesn't sound good.

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:36 pm

On a different thread, W4E raised an interesting point…
Worthy4England wrote:
Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:12 pm
Apart from Sheffield, we've not lost to a team higher placed than 9th. Walsall (9th), Oxford (10th), Rochdale (11th), Peterborough (12th), Charlton (14th), Swindon (22nd), Chesterfield (23rd) - which is great, because we only have two games left against teams higher than 9th... :-(
He’s right, you know…

A Gillingham (16th)
H Northampton (15)
A Oxford (10)
A Shrewsbury (18)
H Chesterfield (23)
A Southend (7)
A Scunny (5)
A Oldham (20)
H Bury (19)
A Port Vale (21)
H Peterborough (12)

…although if you divide the table into home and away results, Southend are less of a threat, as they’re more dependent on their away record…

HOME/AWAY TABLE
(as applicable to our game with ‘em)
A Gillingham (11)
H Northampton (13)
A Oxford (17)
A Shrewsbury (13)
H Chesterfield (22)
A Southend (10)
A Scunny (8)
A Oldham (21)
H Bury (15)
A Port Vale (12)
H Peterborough (7)

…and if you’re now worried about Peterborough, their away form has dropped off a lot recently… but there are a few other teams in decent form…

HOME/AWAY FORM TABLE
(last 8 games at home or away, as applicable)
A Gillingham (13)
H Northampton (15)
A Oxford (21)
A Shrewsbury (3)
H Chesterfield (22)
A Southend (6)
A Scunny (17)
A Oldham (9)
H Bury (6)
A Port Vale (20)
H Peterborough (14)

Worth noting too that Oldham, Bury and Vale will likely be Fighting For Their Lives (Not Literally) when we play them in late April…

Side note of no real importance: if FL matches ended at half-time, Sheffield United would be 8th (we’d be 2nd, Fleetwood top)

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by Worthy4England » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:28 pm

On the side note, Sheffield have rescued a shit load of points in the last 5 minutes of games - the value of playing to the end - Reckon they've got 12 points in the last 5 minutes of games...pulled out wins against Gillingham, Bury, Coventry, Northampton and Peterborough and draws against Scunny and Fleetwood..

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by TANGODANCER » Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:29 pm

Should we get promoted it's going to be interesting when the champers botles are empty and the cigars stubbed out. Hard to specualte what happens club/player wise with our begged, borrowed and stolen squad, but intruiging anyway. I can see Alf, Madine and Dave Wheater, Maybe Pratley, Vela and Beevers wanting definitely to stay, the rest is anybody's guess. I'd like us to keep Morais if at all possible but it's a pot luck scene.
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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:44 pm

TANGODANCER wrote:
Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:29 pm
Should we get promoted it's going to be interesting when the champers botles are empty and the cigars stubbed out. Hard to specualte what happens club/player wise with our begged, borrowed and stolen squad, but intruiging anyway. I can see Alf, Madine and Dave Wheater, Maybe Pratley, Vela and Beevers wanting definitely to stay, the rest is anybody's guess. I'd like us to keep Morais if at all possible but it's a pot luck scene.
Up or down, it'll be an interesting summer, in which we'll have lots of flexibility. As of July, we only have 10 players left in contract and three of them are goalkeepers. That's a good thing because we can cut our cloth - and boy will that cloth be cut if we stay down.

If we go up, it's far from inconceivable that Ken could sell at a quick profit, and in a way I wouldn't blame him. But I fancy he'd struggle to walk away; not many pay-cheques get you as much fun as a promotion party.

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by Prufrock » Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:07 pm

Andrew Taylor is a definite.
In a world that has decided
That it's going to lose its mind
Be more kind, my friends, try to be more kind.

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:27 am

Prufrock wrote:
Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:07 pm
Andrew Taylor is a definite.
IF we go up, getting A Taylor signed is IMO first, absolute, priority.

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by officer_dibble » Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:41 am

David Wheater as well.

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by Bruno3 » Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:47 am

Looking at Fleetwood's remaining fixtures the highest place opposition they face is Millwall so it looks like it will be squeaky bum time for a while yet

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Re: The countdown- Where will we finish?

Post by TANGODANCER » Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:57 am

Bruno3 wrote:
Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:47 am
Looking at Fleetwood's remaining fixtures the highest place opposition they face is Millwall so it looks like it will be squeaky bum time for a while yet
The games that look to be soft targets often....aren't. :wink:
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