Iron versus Wheaterbix. Scunthorpe away, Sat 8th April.

[Nicko58]

I can certainly see how they might slip up against a team that wants it more if they've already won the league by then. If we win next week though, then they'll have the opportunity to wrap it up mathematically in front of a home crowd and that isn't one that I think they'll turn down.

Anyway, sod the rest - if we don't go up now it'll be because we've thrown it away ourselves. Win our next two and we're there.

[officer_dibble]

No more games for lever end till we go up ok?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Apologies again for the accidental misinformation about the lineup – I was rushing as the phone was dying, and I knew I needed it for score updates.

Like the other two losses I’ve attended this season (Walsall and Chesterfield), this was a narrow, probably undeserved defeat. Curiously, in each of the other two we also had 15 attempts on goal.

Once Scunny had gone in front from a clever set-piece play (all their targets lined up offside before zig-zagging into questionable legality as the otherwise anonymous Josh Morris curled in a dangerous cross), most of the pressure and threat came from us. Yes, the old git they brought on at half-time hit the post, but with a deflected shot so weak it bobbled five times before hitting the post; later on, gormless gangling striker Toney hit a shot so pathetic that Howard had time to control it with his feet.

I know I’ll get argued with by people who made up their minds months ago, but I don’t think Wilkinson was that bad yesterday. No, I wouldn’t have played him; yes, I was somewhat disappointed that Parkinson did; no, I don’t think he’s good enough at this level, and I was livid in the second half when Wilkinson had a tame shot from distance rather than rolling forward into the path of Pratley’s intelligent run into the box. But the lad won the majority of his headers - he was as effective in that department as Madine usually is – and did well to get to the chance he hooked wide: I can’t imagine the Geordie Andranik, for all his statistical usefulness, would have even got near hooking that one in. In the first ten minutes Wilko won four headers but there was nobody around to profit; when he then didn’t pointlessly sprint 20 yards to close down a Scunny player who was already shaping to hoof it, the catcalls began and rose to the usual hideously embarrassing crescendo of cheering when a player is substituted.

He was replaced by Clayton, who looked game (despite the attentions of a defender who was forearming him off the ball) but from numerous balls hit towards him only won one header, which went straight up in the air. To his credit, from a later set piece the kid did plant a strong header goalwards which incoming keeper Joe Anyon did well to keep out.

That came during a final 20 minutes in which Scunny rarely left their half. The Legendary Flanners credits them with good defence, and I’d agree, even if I did have great confidence every time we went forward. As Scunny dropped deeper and started to double-mark Morais, Parky cutely brought on Henry for Pratley as another point of creation/crosses/shots, and the loanee almost did for Scunny again with a late dipper. It wasn’t to be, but thanks to Fleetwood’s continuing shit form, we now effectively only need five points – and probably fewer than that.

So are we one-dimensional? Well, yes and no. Parky does like a target man, even persisting with Wilkinson when we have better options. I said before the game that I’d like to have seen Long stretch the Scunny defence from the start; the Burnley loanee did get stripped for action and was even announced over the Tannoy as having replaced Morais, but in fact the Postman remained, presumably having run off a knock that he’d thought would end his game early. No bad thing – he’s still the most likely source of creation, and Long, despite great finishing power, is of greatly reduced use against a team dropping deep to defend, as Scunny certainly were.

But as pointed out above, it’s extremely selective to call Parkinson one-dimensional when he has effectively rebuilt a team mid-season with a very different system using notably different personnel. (This XI shared just four starters with the team who played at Chesterfield - Wheater, Beevers, Spearing and Vela.)

And for that reason, I think it’s going to be fascinating summer of necessary rebuilding, perhaps reusing some of the same materials (Wheater, Taylor, Spearing, Morais, ALF), almost inevitably with some new faces. Next year might be very tough, and we might require a lot of defensive solidity combined with quick counter-attacks.

So meantime, let us enjoy this, a fine time to be alive. Certainly the fans did: vocal in their support, never giving up on winning the game, and even when we lost strongly asserting that We Are Going Up. Indeed we are, barring a bookie-beating statistical freak. Meanwhile, Blackburn and Wigan look like going down, Bury might do too (particularly if we give them a wee push in that direction while possibly even celebrating promotion), United are as irrelevant as they’ve been in 25 years and Tranmere are stuck in non-league celebrating a 9-0 win over Solihull Motors like it matters. Truly, what a time to be alive. Stop seeking the misery, get out and enjoy the sunshine.

[BWFC_Insane]

Looking at the fixtures, I'd say we may well need 2 wins still. Whilst Fleetwood IMO have a tough home game against Millwall, the rest look fairly straightforward. Having said that Fleetwood aren't exactly flying.

Bradford are on better form and would love to chase us down. They will IMO almost certainly win their 3 games apart from Sheff Utd. The Sheff Utd game is the tricky one, however if Sheff Utd have nothing to play for it changes the dynamic of that game.

2 wins. We should be able to win 2 games out of the ones left. However, teams have bottled it from here before. It will be entirely our fault if we don't do it now, but as I said at the start of this run, Oldham away and Bury at home will be very, very tricky games. Especially if we have no Madine. Less than 3 or 4 out of those two and it is entirely possible nerves will kick in.

Still very much alive for everyone this.

[bristol_Wanderer3]

We are going up. We won't need 5 points, but we will get more than 5 points. Relax, calm down.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Looking at the fixtures, I'd say we may well need 2 wins still. Whilst Fleetwood IMO have a tough home game against Millwall, the rest look fairly straightforward. Having said that Fleetwood aren't exactly flying.

Don't stop now mate, you've backed them to win every game so far

Bradford are indeed in the best form among our followers, but that 3-2 loss at Scunny sure helped us. They're 7pts and 10 goals behind us, and haven't won a game by more than two goals since November. So even if they win all four – unlikely, given they're playing at the champions and they haven't won four league games on the bounce since a certain Mr Parkinson left – we need five points. I'd say that's doable.

Behind all the predictions, which are inevitably affected by temperament, lies simple maths.
• We're on 79 with a much better goal difference.
• Fleetwood and Bradford can only get to 84 points, Scunny to 82, IF they all win all their games, which they demonstrably aren't.
• So in the next four games, Fleetwood/Bradford need to get 8pts more than us (or 7pts plus a curious shitload of goals, considering we've only lost by more than one on two occasions all season).

Yes, it is still possible that we can f*ck it up. Yes, there are many shadows at which one can choose to jump. But the simple truth is, we're still so very likely to get promoted that it's carping to claim we're not.

[BWFC_Insane]

Looking at the fixtures, I'd say we may well need 2 wins still. Whilst Fleetwood IMO have a tough home game against Millwall, the rest look fairly straightforward. Having said that Fleetwood aren't exactly flying.

Don't stop now mate, you've backed them to win every game so far

Bradford are indeed in the best form among our followers, but that 3-2 loss at Scunny sure helped us. They're 7pts and 10 goals behind us, and haven't won a game by more than two goals since November. So even if they win all four – unlikely, given they're playing at the champions and they haven't won four league games on the bounce since a certain Mr Parkinson left – we need five points. I'd say that's doable.

Behind all the predictions, which are inevitably affected by temperament, lies simple maths.
• We're on 79 with a much better goal difference.
• Fleetwood and Bradford can only get to 84 points, Scunny to 82, IF they all win all their games, which they demonstrably aren't.
• So in the next four games, Fleetwood/Bradford need to get 8pts more than us (or 7pts plus a curious shitload of goals, considering we've only lost by more than one on two occasions all season).

Yes, it is still possible that we can f*ck it up. Yes, there are many shadows at which one can choose to jump. But the simple truth is, we're still so very likely to get promoted that it's carping to claim we're not.

I'm not claiming we won't. I'm claiming that there are a lot of situations just like this where it looks very hard for a team to throw promotion,play offs or trophy X away, yet they do.

We have in my view two fixtures that look ok on paper but being local derbies, one away against a team who have taken points of our league rivals, on a tricky pitch....neither game is a formality. Should things go a bit wrong there is still time to rescue it, but it's a danger if the nerves are allowed to take hold.

We need two wins. Lets not assume anything less will do until it will.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Like I say, predictions are affected by temperament. You now seem to think Oldham are difficult opponents, but when they were set to play our (woefully formless) nearest rivals you said, with utter certainty, "Fleetwood will win".

Whatever gets you through the day. I'm loving it.

[LeverEnd]

DSB, it's amazing how we see different things. To me Wilkinson won nothing and their centre halves had a very easy day. He never controlled it, played anyone in or held it up. Yes i made my mind up about him ages ago because he's useless, but if he played well I'd credit him for that. Clayton i don't particularly rate but he looked much better, competed more physically and nearly scored with a much harder chance than the one Wilkinson ballooned.

[truewhite15]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't we have our first "match point" next weekend vs Oldham? The right set of results could see us 10 points clear with only 9 to play for, and thus promoted?

[CrazyHorse]

Rather we were promoted in front of Bury though.

It'd be way funnier.

[BWFC_Insane]

Like I say, predictions are affected by temperament. You now seem to think Oldham are difficult opponents, but when they were set to play our (woefully formless) nearest rivals you said, with utter certainty, "Fleetwood will win".

Whatever gets you through the day. I'm loving it.

I always thought two local derbies would be hard for us. We are in the fortunate position of it not being too close right now, so hopefully can get a win against either Oldham or Bury and leave it relatively comfortable. Obviously best just to win both if poss.

[twilight]

I'm with LE on the subject of Wilkinson, imo he offered nothing upfront, he's Sunday League at best. OK I don't think any of the players covered themselves in glory yesterday, but him and Moxey were just awful!! We were subjected to Moxey in the second half, being given the ball by Beevers, to get it straight back and that's all he did...and Wilkinson for me didnt win more than 1 header (sorry DSB)

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

No need to apologise: obviously everyone has the right to their own opinions and just as importantly I would defend that right. If you don't like Wilkinson that's fair enough – you have the majority viewpoint and I'll be surprised (as well as dismayed) if he starts a single league game next season – but I saw Wilkinson win several headers yesterday, and on at least three occasions in the first half he brought the ball down, looked around and had to lay it back 15 yards to the nearest team-mate. Any target man, even Saint Kevin, can quite easily be negated if he isn't given options in support; yesterday, Wilkinson spent much of the game isolated apart from the brief flickerings of runs from ALF (who I do like, and who did barge into defenders in a crowd-pleasing way, but who didn't win a thing in the air).

I still think their centre-halves would have had a harder day against the pace of Long. That's by the by, but it will remain a live issue if Madine isn't ready to play on Oldham's beach next week.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't we have our first "match point" next weekend vs Oldham? The right set of results could see us 10 points clear with only 9 to play for, and thus promoted?

Correct. We're now at the point where our rivals dropping points is almost better than us winning, as we have seen twice in three games: they're running out of time. So yes, mathematically we need two wins, but only as long as Fleetwood and Bradford "keep" winning.

So if they both lose on Good Friday, a win at Oldham will be enough to make us mathematically promoted, on 82 points - uncatchable from their 72pts. If they both draw, to reach 73pts, a win at Oldham would mean they had to win all their remaining three games, we had to lose all ours, and make up a goal-difference swing of at least 11.

(On Good Friday Fleetwood are at Peterborough, Bradford host Oxford, and for the record Scunny are at MK Dons.)

Rather we were promoted in front of Bury though.

It'd be way funnier.

I can't quite decide whether it's more or less likely - in bare statistical probabilities.

For us to go up against Bury, we would need to be 7+pts clear afterwards (and thus uncatchable with two games each to go).

There is a chance that we could get promoted at Oldham, but it relies on a particular set of three results going our way: we win, the others both lose.

But if all three of us win, or all three of us draw, or all three of us lose, that means it's still a 7pt gap going into the next round of games. If that's the case, the chasers would have to win their Easter Monday games (12.15pm Blades-Bradford, 3pm Fleetwood-Millwall) or they'd be either 7pts (if they draw) or 8pts (if they lose) with two games left – game over, pop the corks, the Bury game is irrelevant to our cause.

So while that would all be very nice and welcome, if what we really secretly want is to go up with is a win against Bury, we need to be between 4pts and 6pts clear of the chasers before kick-off at the Macron. (Any nearer, and they could still catch us in the last two games; any further and we won't need a result against Bury.) Now, that gap could happen several ways:
• we lose at Oldham, so we're on 79pts, but Bradford/Fleetwood would have to be on 73-75pts, meaning they got one, two or three points from their two games (LD, DL, DD, LW or WL). This might also bring Scunthorpe, who are two points further back, into play – 
• we draw at Oldham, so we're on 80pts; Bradford/Fleetwood would have to be on 74-76pts, meaning they got two, three or four points from their two games (DD, LW, WL, WD or DW)
• we win at Oldham, so we're on 82pts; Bradford/Fleetwood would have to be on 77-79pts, meaning they got five or six points from their two games (except they can't get five: they'd have to WW).

As far as I can see, if a team plays two games it can get nine different sets of results (not scores, but outcomes): LL, DL, LD, DD, WL, LW, DW, WW, WW. If we lose or draw at Oldham, five of those nine outcomes for Bradford/Fleetwood would make it so that a win against Bury would see us promoted.

I think!

EDIT As Twilight correctly points out, if we win at Oldham we'll be on 82 not 83

[twilight]

Nit-picking and all that, but if we win at Oldham we will only be on 82 points?
But well done DSB, you made me feel exhausted just reading that

[BWFC_Insane]

DSB seems to have forgotten that Scunthorpe can still reach 82 points!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

DSB seems to have forgotten that Scunthorpe can still reach 82 points!

Erm:

• we lose at Oldham, so we're on 79pts, but Bradford/Fleetwood would have to be on 73-75pts, meaning they got one, two or three points from their two games (LD, DL, DD, LW or WL). This might also bring Scunthorpe, who are two points further back, into play

There is a chance Scunthorpe can reach 82 points, yes. And there's a chance we can reach that on Saturday.

[Harry Genshaw]

Excellent assessment DSB and almost makes up for you relegating ALF to the bench yesterday ; )

[TANGODANCER]

Do we want to be Scunthorpe, Fleetwood or anyone else apart from Shefield right now?...or would they rather be Boton?We're either good enough to clinch it now or we ain't. I'm betting all of them think we are.