Stats and stuff

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Could you do an internal round up of stats after 33 games from this, last, and season before? ( I was thinking of where we stand on like shots on target, points, minutes of heart attack, etc... Rather than comparisons with Barcelona and/or Oxford United).
Would be appreciated.
Ta.

Might be difficult to drill down into "partial" stats from midway through previous seasons as opposed to season-end totals. I'll see if I can dig anything out, as it might be interesting to compare this season to each of the previous three (relegation, promotion, survival).

I can see it would be difficult to mine the data (one reason I'm not doing it) but even partial oversight would be useful. So, if you can, I for one would be grateful to see the results.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

2015/16
GAME 33
Our 33rd game in 2015/16 was lost 1-0 at Birmingham to a goal from some bloke called Clayton Donaldson. Gary Madine was dropped for disciplinary reasons.

STAT ATTACK
We had 25 points; F31 A54 = GD of -23; position 23rd; zero points and 11 goals above 24th place; 7pts and 4 goals behind 21st place (MK Dons).

THE GAFFER SAID...
Lennon: "What we need to do is get the (transfer) embargo lifted and get some players in to bolster the squad. It's wafer thin at the moment.We do need a bit of strength in depth, it's something we've lacked for a while. It (the takeover) has not gone through yet so once it does we'll know what position we're in."

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT?
As soon as the takeover went through, Lennon knew what position he was in: unemployed. Under Jimmy Phillips, we won one, drew one, lost seven and finished bottom.

-------
2016/17
GAME 33
Our 33rd game in 2016/17 was a 1-1 home draw with Bristol Rovers. It meant we'd only won two of our previous nine.

STAT ATTACK
We had 59pts; F45 (only as many as 19th-placed Gillingham) A28 (fewest in division) = GD of +17; 2pts and 7 goals behind 2nd-placed Scunthorpe, but 6pts and 7 goals clear of 7th-placed Southend.

THE GAFFER SAID...
Parkinson: “We are looking for an identity again, we’re trying hard to find it, but it’s difficult when you are chopping and changing every week through illness, injury and suspension. We are hanging in there by our fingernails at the moment. I think we must get some luck somewhere along the line in terms of the injuries we’ve had – but we know we have got to get better."

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT?
We did. After a false start with a 1-1 draw against Wimbledon, we got 19 points from the subsequent seven games to claim second place and just about hang on to it.

--------
2017/18
GAME 33
Our 33rd game in 2017/18 was a 1-0 home win over Sunderland thanks to Zach Clough. It was our 7th win in the last 12 home games and took us to the giddy heights of 19th.

STAT ATTACK
We had 33 points; F29 A51 = GD of -22; 4pts and 11 goals above 22nd-placed Burton.

THE GAFFER SAID...
Parkinson: "If we have had a bit of fortune with the goal then the people who follow Bolton will say it's long overdue. We said nothing will be decided on this game but with Sunderland below us in the table it is a huge win. We dug really deep and I have got to credit the character of the lads. People expected us to win and that's a different kind of pressure but we handled it well."

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT?
We won one of our next 12 games and nearly went down... until we somehow won in the last five minutes of the season and stayed up.
-------
2018/19
GAME 33
As you may remember, our 33rd game this season saw us arse-plated 4-0 at home by Norwich.

STAT ATTACK
We have 26 points; F21 A51 = GD of -30; 3pts and 15 goals behind 21st-placed Reading.

THE GAFFER SAID...
Parkinson: "We got beaten by an outstanding team today. Sometimes you've got to hold your hands up and they were absolutely outstanding as they have been all season. Some of the goals they scored were right out of the top drawer. We can always do better but everything has to be perfect to get a result against a team like Norwich."

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT?
Dunno.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Ha!
Cheers

[Lost Leopard Spot]

2015/16 such a distant memory. But deja vu helps.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Direct comparison

Screen Shot 2019-02-18 at 21.59.48.png (24.52 KiB) Viewed 3238 times

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

^ which leads to the interesting question

When did we last (& how often do we) dominate possession in a league game?

"Dominate" might not be quite the verb but we've had majority possession thrice in the league this season - and lost all three times, by a single goal, at home. I'd put those failures down to two familiar problems: either not asking enough questions of their goalie or not asking hard enough ones. QPR had more efforts than us (in total and on target); against Blackburn we had more shots, the same number on target; against Hull we had 16 efforts but only three on target (Hull were accurate with 2 from 7).

Here's the stats from every game this season. Not only have we lost all three games in which we've had more ball, but in two of our wins we had eye-wateringly low possession of 28% and 26% - the latter at home, but a perfect illustration of why possession doesn't matter: after Noone's early goal we basically let Derby have the thing but they couldn't score, so they lost.

On average our percentage possession for wins is 38%, but 42% when we lose. Across all games it's 40%, with 42% at home, 39% away.

PERCENT2.png (76.84 KiB) Viewed 3168 times

[Dujon]

Thanks, DSb, that is what I was searching for with my question on another thread. Your time and trouble in extracting those data is very much appreciated.

[Harry Genshaw]

I'll second that ^. Interesting stuff and while possession isn't the best all and end all those stats do show us as a team regularly on the back foot. Can't imagine Rioch's or Todd's sides having anything like as similar figures

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I'll second that ^. Interesting stuff and while possession isn't the best all and end all those stats do show us as a team regularly on the back foot. Can't imagine Rioch's or Todd's sides having anything like as similar figures

Agreed on PP's team(s), who are very reactive. What BR & CT's teams (at their best) did was dominate the game, rather than possession or passing per se. We'll never know, as such stats weren't collected then, but I wouldn't be surprised to find those teams weren't above 55% possession. They didn't piss about: if they got the ball, they got it down, (sometimes) got it wide and definitely got it forward, where their forwards had the happy knack of putting the round thing in the netty thing. It's only in the post-Pep era of idolising tiki-taka - a coinage Pep hated, by the way, as indicative of purposeless passing - that success has been defined by somewhat arbitrary targets, like when Graham Westley was hired by Peterborough and promised 600+ passes and 25+ shots per game.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

With 12 games left, I thought it might be time to swing by SoccerStats for a peep at the run-in.
https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?l ... nd2&tid=10
What they do is work out each team's PPG home and away, then average the relevant scores to produce a score for run-in difficulty.

And just like last year, it seems ours is the easiest of the drop-dodgers' to-do lists.

run-in.png (17.63 KiB) Viewed 3011 times

It might not be by much but Enoch demanded something optimistic. If we could start to pick up points - maybe tomorrow, certainly against a Millwall side who've averaged just 0.59ppg away - there are winnable games; Millwall, Ipswich and Brentford are in the bottom five for away points, Wednesday and Villa are out of the play-off race and decidedly average travellers with 1.12ppg away, while Swansea are the seventh-worst home team, QPR and Blackburn barely any better.

run-in2.png (22.52 KiB) Viewed 3011 times

[Lost Leopard Spot]

With 12 games left, I thought it might be time to swing by SoccerStats for a peep at the run-in.
https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?l ... nd2&tid=10
What they do is work out each team's PPG home and away, then average the relevant scores to produce a score for run-in difficulty.

And just like last year, it seems ours is the easiest of the drop-dodgers' to-do lists.

run-in.png

It might not be by much but Enoch demanded something optimistic. If we could start to pick up points - maybe tomorrow, certainly against a Millwall side who've averaged just 0.59ppg away - there are winnable games; Millwall, Ipswich and Brentford are in the bottom five for away points, Wednesday and Villa are out of the play-off race and decidedly average travellers with 1.12ppg away, while Swansea are the seventh-worst home team, QPR and Blackburn barely any better.

run-in2.png

Without trying to douse the flames of optimism before the match has even been struck... But. If my interpretation of those stats is correct, then over the next twelve games we might expect to see an extra 1.2 points added to our total over and above what we expect to achieve based on what we've already scored. That will not cut any mustard. It will not rescue us.

34*0.76=26
12*0.76=9
Extra 1.2 PTS
Total: 25.84+9.22+1.2= 36 PTS

[Jugs]

Has DSB just relegated us?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Without trying to douse the flames of optimism before the match has even been struck... But. If my interpretation of those stats is correct, then over the next twelve games we might expect to see an extra 1.2 points added to our total over and above what we expect to achieve based on what we've already scored. That will not cut any mustard. It will not rescue us.

34*0.76=26
12*0.76=9
Extra 1.2 PTS
Total: 25.84+9.22+1.2= 36 PTS

Oh there's no way we'll survive if we continue as we are. This situation requires not stasis but progress. The stats above merely prove that picking up the pace should be easier for us than for our nearest foes.

Has DSB just relegated us?

I suspect history will not focus on my portion of the blame compared to others.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

I suspect history will not focus on my portion of the blame compared to others.

Do not be too sure of that... I can print T-shirts pointing to the moment in time all hope left me because of wild unfounded optimism stoked by Enoch and DSB ...

[Enoch]

I suspect history will not focus on my portion of the blame compared to others.

Do not be too sure of that... I can print T-shirts pointing to the moment in time all hope left me because of wild unfounded optimism stoked by Enoch and DSB ...

.
Be reet.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

I suspect history will not focus on my portion of the blame compared to others.

Do not be too sure of that... I can print T-shirts pointing to the moment in time all hope left me because of wild unfounded optimism stoked by Enoch and DSB ...

.
Be reet.

I'll print that on the back with a big red cross through it.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Barn-door update:
• We're now on 0.6285 goals per game, which is on course for 28.9 goals over the 46 games.
• 1970–71 (35/42 = 0.833)
• 2017-18 (39/46 = 0.848)
• 2015/16 (41/46 = 0.891)

What kind of return are we heading for this season in terms of goals scored? And is it likely to be record breaking?

In 29 league games we've scored 19 (0.655 gpg). Multiplied by 46 that has us on course for 30.137 goals.

In terms of pure goals-scored:
• We scored 28 goals in 1897/98, but that was from a 30-game season. (Out of interest, we still finished 11th in a 16-team top flight; we went down the following season, 17th out of 18, the first season with automatic relegation rather than the proto-playoff Test Matches.)
• In 1970–71 we scored 35 in 42 as we finished bottom of Division Two after a chaotic season of managerial upheaval. Send for Armfield!
• Fewest goals over a 46-game season was 39, er, last year. (We'd scored fewer, but over fewer games, in 2007–08, 1898–99, 1902–03, 1893–94 and 1979–80)

In terms of goals per game:
• We're on 0.655
• That 1970–71 was the worst we've had (35/42 = 0.833 goals per game)
• Second-worst was last season (39/46 = 0.848)
• Third-worst was 2015–16 (41/46 = 0.891)

In other words, unless we suddenly discover a bag of goals, three of the last four seasons have been three of our worst four seasons *ever* for goalscoring – and it's not entirely Parky's fault...

[Harry Genshaw]

How soon after their pay day is missed, can a player terminate his contract and walk?

Which senior players are still under contract next season?

[officer_dibble]

Thankfully Ozthumer signed a two year deal

I think Ameobi has another year, Murphy, Olmowski and perhaps Hobbs....I reckon most of the others are up in the summer.

[TonyDomingos]

Let's ask DSB.

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=23114&start=640