We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by popeyedoyle » Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:20 pm

When Parky had the disastrous start at the beginning of the season KA stood by him when most other clubs would have fired him. I'd like to think that loyalty shown by Ken would mean something to Parky IF Reading come calling.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by TANGODANCER » Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:30 pm

Nobody liked the idea of Madine leaving, but money was always the magnet that decided. Same thing could happen here. That's football today.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Abdoulaye's Twin » Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:34 pm

Summat else for the resident fannies to panic about.

It be reet.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by GhostoftheBok » Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:56 pm

If your manager is doing a decent job then he'll get linked to available gigs. Parky is a doing well to keep us above the drop zone, so he's bound to be considered if the likes of Reading need a manager. Managers don't usually do loyalty. This isn't Parky's dream job and Reading are, at the minute, better placed to be successful next year if their new boss can keep them up. It depends how he'd see the risk vs the reward. Reading are a similar club to us, in terms of stadium size and average attendance - they even have some serious debt. Parky may look at Bolton now as going in the right direction and Reading on the edge of going through the turmoil we just did if he doesn't have a sparkling season with them next term. At Bolton he just has to stay up and things should gradually improve.

Parky left Bradford in the lurch to come here, because it was good for him. He will do the same to us if he thinks Reading are a better bet. I'd say it's worth him sticking with Bolton for another couple of seasons, but it's impossible to know how other people think.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:46 pm

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:56 pm
Parky left Bradford in the lurch to come here
Harsh. He'd improved them every year over five seasons, made them the first fourth-tier team to reach a major final, took them up, took them to the play-offs – and a new ownership structure was coming in with strong rumours of wanting to change the manager (for Rosler, IIRC). It's hardly Massimiliano Alleggri leaving his bride-to-be at the altar.
GhostoftheBok wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:56 pm
Reading are a similar club to us, in terms of stadium size and average attendance - they even have some serious debt. Parky may look at Bolton now as going in the right direction and Reading on the edge of going through the turmoil we just did if he doesn't have a sparkling season with them next term. At Bolton he just has to stay up and things should gradually improve.
I'm not entirely sure things will get fiscally better just by finishing 21st each season. Meanwhile, debt notwithstanding, Reading are capable of making much more money than us. It's just a richer area and with fewer rival clubs nearby – perhaps counterintuitively considering some Bolton fans always cringingly call them "Cockneys": West Ham is 42 miles away, even west Londoners Brentford are 30 miles distant.
GhostoftheBok wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:56 pm
If your manager is doing a decent job then he'll get linked to available gigs.
Couldn't agree more. The alternative is the Peter Principle of a bloke with a station above his ideas.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by GhostoftheBok » Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:58 pm

I didn't mean it harshly. I live in the area (West Yorkshire) and Bradford fans felt like he should have stayed and taken them up. Most have come around to the idea now that it was an upward move for him, but at the time a lot of their fans saw him as going sideways due to our finances. I agree things are unlikely to get better if we hang around the bottom of the league, but I expect us to be a bit better next season and a bit better again the season after. We will probably sell Vela and maybe some others and the finances should remain fairly stable. Reading have a hell of a lot of debt (I think the last count was nearly 70 million) and whilst they will likely offer a manager more to spend next year than we will, if they don't go up then they are at real risk of financial instability to rival where we were a couple of years ago.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by jmjhb » Wed Mar 21, 2018 4:43 pm

Clement was 1/8 last time I checked but it doesn't mean anything at this early stage.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Harry Genshaw » Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:58 pm

I read 11 pages of comments on the Beeb and only found 1 mention/suggestion of Parky.

I don't think they'll come in for him, both because they don't want him and they'll think he won't want to go there.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:07 am

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:58 pm
I didn't mean it harshly. I live in the area (West Yorkshire) and Bradford fans felt like he should have stayed and taken them up. Most have come around to the idea now that it was an upward move for him, but at the time a lot of their fans saw him as going sideways due to our finances. I agree things are unlikely to get better if we hang around the bottom of the league, but I expect us to be a bit better next season and a bit better again the season after. We will probably sell Vela and maybe some others and the finances should remain fairly stable. Reading have a hell of a lot of debt (I think the last count was nearly 70 million) and whilst they will likely offer a manager more to spend next year than we will, if they don't go up then they are at real risk of financial instability to rival where we were a couple of years ago.
All fair enough, friend.

I know from repeated professional experience that fans tend to be somewhat biased towards their club's view, so it doesn't surprise me at all that Bradford fans thought he was wrong to leave – and let's be honest, two summers ago there was a very real question as to whether we were more likely to leave the Third Division through the sun-roof or the trap door.

As good as the Academy is, we can't financially rely on selling a Vela every season (for instance, who's next year? and the year after?) and say things are getting better. It's a fiscal model, for sure, but it's very risky.

There's no financial reward for finishing say 12th rather than 21st: there's no positional prize money as per PL, all Champo clubs get the same slice of cash. As of last May, this was £2.084m per club for TV money from the FL's own TV deal, plus a £4.3m per club "solidarity payment" from the PL in a vain attempt to stop the gap growing between the top two divisions. (Instead, one could argue that the greatest gap in English football is now between the second and third tiers.)

As for Sky money, last season home teams got £100,000 per televised game and their visitors get £10,000 – so that's not all that important in the scheme of things, especially not compared to parachute payments, which are too convoluted to list here (more details here if you like) but let's just say that Boro, Hull and Sunderland have all bagged tens of millions this season. Reading, having fallen off this gravy train by being relegated in 2013 and not being re-promoted by 2016, may well be about to crash hard, as you say – but I'd say they're still a buyable club.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:54 pm

knobpolisher wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:45 am
Very interesting, look how madine has improved Cardiffs position and ours by not playing.

What a man .
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:00 pm

TANGODANCER wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:30 pm
Nobody liked the idea of Madine leaving, but money was always the magnet that decided. Same thing could happen here. That's football today.
Excuse me but, I was, (and still am), more than content for the Washing Machine to have redialled his program to a quick spin in Cardiff...
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by GhostoftheBok » Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:46 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:07 am
GhostoftheBok wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:58 pm
I didn't mean it harshly. I live in the area (West Yorkshire) and Bradford fans felt like he should have stayed and taken them up. Most have come around to the idea now that it was an upward move for him, but at the time a lot of their fans saw him as going sideways due to our finances. I agree things are unlikely to get better if we hang around the bottom of the league, but I expect us to be a bit better next season and a bit better again the season after. We will probably sell Vela and maybe some others and the finances should remain fairly stable. Reading have a hell of a lot of debt (I think the last count was nearly 70 million) and whilst they will likely offer a manager more to spend next year than we will, if they don't go up then they are at real risk of financial instability to rival where we were a couple of years ago.
All fair enough, friend.

I know from repeated professional experience that fans tend to be somewhat biased towards their club's view, so it doesn't surprise me at all that Bradford fans thought he was wrong to leave – and let's be honest, two summers ago there was a very real question as to whether we were more likely to leave the Third Division through the sun-roof or the trap door.

As good as the Academy is, we can't financially rely on selling a Vela every season (for instance, who's next year? and the year after?) and say things are getting better. It's a fiscal model, for sure, but it's very risky.

There's no financial reward for finishing say 12th rather than 21st: there's no positional prize money as per PL, all Champo clubs get the same slice of cash. As of last May, this was £2.084m per club for TV money from the FL's own TV deal, plus a £4.3m per club "solidarity payment" from the PL in a vain attempt to stop the gap growing between the top two divisions. (Instead, one could argue that the greatest gap in English football is now between the second and third tiers.)

As for Sky money, last season home teams got £100,000 per televised game and their visitors get £10,000 – so that's not all that important in the scheme of things, especially not compared to parachute payments, which are too convoluted to list here (more details here if you like) but let's just say that Boro, Hull and Sunderland have all bagged tens of millions this season. Reading, having fallen off this gravy train by being relegated in 2013 and not being re-promoted by 2016, may well be about to crash hard, as you say – but I'd say they're still a buyable club.
Right, but with Eddie having written off most of the debt and us having paid off more, we are more likely to be able to get agreement on refinancing for the loans or facilities we have left as long term repayment looks increasingly viable and creditors are less likely to panic. I agree Reading are a club that might find investors, but I don't think they're that attractive a job to a manager already employed in the same division. They might well pay him more, though. That'd likely be decisive.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by TANGODANCER » Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:48 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:00 pm
TANGODANCER wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:30 pm
Nobody liked the idea of Madine leaving, but money was always the magnet that decided. Same thing could happen here. That's football today.
Excuse me but, I was, (and still am), more than content for the Washing Machine to have redialled his program to a quick spin in Cardiff...
Quite so, and also interesting that Cardiff could lash out x mil pounds for somebody to sit on a bench. Amazing.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:50 pm

TANGODANCER wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:48 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:00 pm
TANGODANCER wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:30 pm
Nobody liked the idea of Madine leaving, but money was always the magnet that decided. Same thing could happen here. That's football today.
Excuse me but, I was, (and still am), more than content for the Washing Machine to have redialled his program to a quick spin in Cardiff...
Quite so, and also interesting that Cardiff could lash out x mil pounds for somebody to sit on a bench. Amazing.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by GhostoftheBok » Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:12 pm

They are desperate for promotion. Warnock essentially handed them a list of demands and said, "If I don't get these we might not get there." They'd probably have handed him more, given how well he has been doing with them this season.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Harry Genshaw » Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:10 pm

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:46 pm
I agree Reading are a club that might find investors, but I don't think they're that attractive a job to a manager already employed in the same division. They might well pay him more, though. That'd likely be decisive.
It's how we got Dougie and he had no connection to us at the time. I imagine at that time we had more spending power then, than Reading do now
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by palindromeofbolton » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:33 am

Seems like Clement is set to become Reading boss. Now 1/10 (1/20 in a place) with the bookies. Apparently could be confirmed today.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:02 am

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:46 pm
with Eddie having written off most of the debt and us having paid off more, we are more likely to be able to get agreement on refinancing for the loans or facilities we have left as long term repayment looks increasingly viable and creditors are less likely to panic.
Interesting, this. I'm not arguing against you, as finance isn't my wheelhouse, but I do wonder (whither Worthy?) how solid those latest accounts are. We seem to still have a £5m or £6m debt being called in (or the can kicked down the road) every six months or so, and that's more than all but the very best Academies can support.

I get what you're saying about refinancing loans, which seem to have been signed under somewhat usurious conditions when we were desperate to stay alive; I also hope/expect that a combination of Ken's negotiation and the largesse of friendly creditors (a Warby here, a benign local businessman there) will stop icebergs hoving into view. But I do wonder about long-term viability, and whether the question is being hidden behind the recent dramas, up to and including the current Loan Rate Question.

I guess I'm asking this. For the sake of theoretical discourse: if those debts were to suddenly disappear, without extra ongoing investment – a slate wiped clean, if you like - how competitive would we be in this distended dystopian division, a sub-Premiership boulevard of broken dreams? If there isn't a deep-pocketed Arab/Chinese/whatever businessman bankrolling the ongoing overexposure like a deus ex machina, how much can we afford? I would assume that our wage ceiling would still be about £10kpw, £15kpw at a stretch. Which is fine if it's all we can afford – we know what the alternative is – but we're in a division where several clubs are spending more than 100% of their turnover on wages (in 2016/17 Sheffield Wednesday spent 126%, Birmingham City 128%, Nottingham Forest 137%).

Under those circumstances, it would take a really exceptional manager to build the club upwards. The sort of phenomenally successful manager that might well be wanted elsewhere. But for now, it's good news if Reading hire Clement. For one, Parky stays; for another, Clement has hardly proved his worth. There's something bristlingly unlovable about him, and he's not who I'd be calling in for a fireman's role.

(Further financial reading: Swiss Ramble on Sheffield Wednesday, on Nottingham Forest, on Aston VIlla, on Millwall, on Sheffield United and on Championship 2015/16. Advice to anyone considering reading these: might be worth waiting for your next toilet break, partly because it's an involved read, partly because you might shit yourself.)
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:04 am

Press conference at Reading to announce the new manager (who is Paul Clement) today at 12. Sadly I think he'll do enough to organise them and arrest their momentum to keep them up.

Not a good long term option for me though. He's failed everywhere hasn't he?

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:40 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:04 am
Press conference at Reading to announce the new manager (who is Paul Clement) today at 12. Sadly I think he'll do enough to organise them and arrest their momentum to keep them up.

Not a good long term option for me though. He's failed everywhere hasn't he?
The vast majority of Derby fans castigated him for "boring" possession-obsessed football – which hardly seems a paradigm shift from Stam. He had a 42% win rate there but was turfed after eight months with the side in fifth place.

Took over Swansea in Jan 2017 with the team bottom of the Premier League. Got manager of the month, kept them up with 26pts from his 18 games. But they started 2017/18 badly, with Swans fans turning on the perceived "boring" style. I guess Reading wouldn't give a tin shit for now whether it's boring as long as they they stay up, but he left Swansea just before Christmas with the club in the same position he found it: bottom of the league.

Other than that, he's just been an assistant manager, notably to Carlo Ancelotti on several occasions.

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