We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

[Prufrock]

He's weird too. Something about him.

[Prufrock]

As for the money stuff, are Preston being bankrolled? Lot to be said for stability in a mad league. Box clever, short contacts unless there's real sale value. You're unlucky to be troubling the top six most years but one decent season and flukey play offs is all it takes.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

He's weird too. Something about him.

Know what you mean. Hard to pin down exactly what it is. Maybe it's a media façade but he seems entirely unsympathetic.

As for the money stuff, are Preston being bankrolled? Lot to be said for stability in a mad league. Box clever, short contacts unless there's real sale value. You're unlucky to be troubling the top six most years but one decent season and flukey play offs is all it takes.

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PNE are owned by the comfortably rich Trevor Hemmings, who casually wiped off £34m of debt in 2015.
https://www.lep.co.uk/sport/football/pr ... -1-8874716

[Prufrock]

They might have been who I had in mind!

Fair enough on Preston. I know he was tight as f*ck when it came to putting any money at all into Chorley so wondered if he was splashing cash at Preston.

That's fecking worrying if a club who don't seem particularly ostentatious throwing money around or paying big bucks are writing off that kind of debt. Presumably that's mainly from chasing promotion in their League one days but still...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

That's fecking worrying if a club who don't seem particularly ostentatious throwing money around or paying big bucks are writing off that kind of debt. Presumably that's mainly from chasing promotion in their League one days but still...

https://www.lep.co.uk/sport/football/pn ... -1-6544262
Says here it merely reduced their debt from £53m to £20m, by switching bank debt for share capital (the Eddie Davies move).

Very easy to quietly rack up debts in this division, which is where PNE had been for the decade prior to Trev taking it private in 2010.

[GhostoftheBok]

with Eddie having written off most of the debt and us having paid off more, we are more likely to be able to get agreement on refinancing for the loans or facilities we have left as long term repayment looks increasingly viable and creditors are less likely to panic.

Interesting, this. I'm not arguing against you, as finance isn't my wheelhouse, but I do wonder (whither Worthy?) how solid those latest accounts are.

Not very, by any reasonable standard - but much more so than we've seen recently. It will take good work to get everything sorted out, I agree, but revenue has been low largely due to not many people showing up for games. Whilst TV money is now driving finances in football, selling tickets matters when you're in our situation. The longer we stay up, the better players we have and better we do, the more people are likely to show up for games. The more willing creditors are to renegotiate (or, as Ken has hinted at once, turn loans into investment deals) the less burdened we are by interest.

The club will always operate with debt. Keeping the debt down and being able to service it are the key issues. From reading the account releases and trying to following the PR bollocks, it seems like we have enough interest in club assets that we can sell off some parcels of land if debts are called in - but we'd rather avoid it and renegotiate. So it's bad, but no longer the looming, existential threat we faced before. The trouble is that that statement assumes a level of honesty from the club and there's no huge reason to have a lot of faith as yet. The accounts don't keep track of possible future investment, the good will of creditors etc. If Ken is being mostly honest, then we're starting to look like your average, debt-saddled football club.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

with Eddie having written off most of the debt and us having paid off more, we are more likely to be able to get agreement on refinancing for the loans or facilities we have left as long term repayment looks increasingly viable and creditors are less likely to panic.

Interesting, this. I'm not arguing against you, as finance isn't my wheelhouse, but I do wonder (whither Worthy?) how solid those latest accounts are.

Not very, by any reasonable standard - but much more so than we've seen recently. It will take good work to get everything sorted out, I agree, but revenue has been low largely due to not many people showing up for games. Whilst TV money is now driving finances in football, selling tickets matters when you're in our situation. The longer we stay up, the better players we have and better we do, the more people are likely to show up for games. The more willing creditors are to renegotiate (or, as Ken has hinted at once, turn loans into investment deals) the less burdened we are by interest.

Thanks. Lots to chew on here. The Premier League TV money is dictating finance, but as outlined on a previous page it's not providing it for Champo clubs beyond a few bob in "solidarity" payments. It seems to me there's a huge hole in tier-two finances as the desperate chase for the top flight incentivises people to risk the farm. I'm long-toothed enough to know that clubs often operate with debt but the breadth and depth of it in this division is genuinely startling.

And while it's better to have more people in the ground, I don't think history supports the idea that the turnstiles will start to whizz once we win a few more games; to me, this season's 15,427 average doesn't seem to have a lot of immediately achievable head-room. The European Football Statistics site shows our historical average attendances and they're somewhat sobering. In the 2012/13 season directly after relegation from the Prem, we averaged 18,034. The following three seasons we finished 14th, 18th and dead-last, but the attendances were fairly steady: 16,141 then 15,413 then 15,056. The promotion season averaged 14,934. Going back a bit, when we went up under Sam (finishing third) we averaged 16,106. The previous season, when we'd reached three semi-finals including the play-offs, we averaged 14,384. That was nearly 4k down on the previous season, when we'd also hit the play-offs in our first season back down and averaged 18,240. In other words, both times we've been relegated from the top flight we've had 18k but this has quickly fallen off to 16k or even 14k.

I'll go a bit further back for the sake of fairness, because we were then on the slide whereas now we're (theoretically) on the rise. Under Rioch at Burnden we averaged 9,062 in the third-tier promotion season, then 10,498 in his middle season (14th), then 13,029 the season he took us to the top flight.

TL;DR: we haven't got a missing 5,000 fans who'll come back for a second-tier promotion season, let alone a mid-table one.

So if it's not from the pockets of returning fans, and it's not from TV deals, and it's not from overspeculation, where does the money come from?

(For the record, GotB, I'm not arguing against you or violently disagreeing. I'm just trying to understand our club's medium-term future.)

[GhostoftheBok]

This is, for me, one of the most interesting aspects of Bolton as a club. We are a decent club, with a lot of history, in a huge town (I think we're the largest non-city in the UK, but can stand correction on that score); but we don't get the gates you'd expect. My view has been, for some time, that the club has failed to deal with the changing demographics and identity of the town over the last 40 years. Bolton is more of a commuting hub for people who work and socialise in Manchester and elsewhere and a lot of people who are residents have no connection to the club at all. We've not done well on outreach to new communities that have formed in town (unlike, for example, Wolves and their work in the Asian community) and so newcomers over the decades have naturally looked at the more successful and famous clubs in the region. So I think there's room for development of our fan base in the medium to long term.

In the short term, I do think increased success and better football make a difference in attendances in general and it'd be odd if Bolton were magically immune to that tendency. I mentioned Wolves earlier - they've seen a jump of about 7,000 in their average attendance on the back of their promotion push this term. The trouble with Bolton is that we've not had much excitement generated around the club in a long, long time. We are down by about 2000 by our normal "average" Championship attendance, I think (our promotion season back in 2000/01 saw home attendances around 16500, as I recall) but we are around a 17000 club in this division as "standard" I think. Again, I can stand correction there as I don't have figures to hand.

The club, for me, has failed to rebuild itself as a central hub for the community; basically due to a lack of any real attempt to do that. I suppose that counts as an off-topic rant, so sorry about that - but I do think there's room there to develop the club going forward.

Back on topic, more success doesn't just mean increased revenue through more tickets. People who did already buy tickets tend to buy more merch, sponsors tend to be more willing to back the team and existing sponsors can be persuaded to pay more etc. It also makes players more willing to sign and means that your players are probably doing okay, meaning people are more willing to buy them from you. Not being crap offers ways to increase revenue. I do think that better performances and more entertaining football would increase gates (my working assumption is that our "floor" is about 14000 and our absolute ceiling about 20000 at this level, depending on loads of factors) and I think getting back to an average gate of around 18000 - our average following relegation - should be the aim over the next 2-3 seasons with decent outreach and marketing efforts. That assumes us not being diabolical on the pitch. Our longer term aims should be to totally rework the role of the club in the town, but that'd take a lot of work.

[TANGODANCER]

Relating to crowd numbers, and nowt to do with owt really, and there are many reasons it is thus; but Bolton Wanderers are in Horwich, six miles away from Bolton (I suppose measured from M & S or somewhere?) . The Macron stadium is in Horwich. The memorial statue of Bolton's favourite son is in Horwich. The local railway station to the ground is in Horwich. It will mean little or nothing to people who never had more than a five minute walk from the town centre to Burnden Park, but I still talk to people who say moving to Horwich was the worse thing the club ever did and a lot more folk would go to games if we were still on Manny Road. . As I say, nowt to do with owt really and it isn't..so...

[Harry Genshaw]

^ I think it's a fair observation TD. The club has less connection to the town of Bolton than I think it did prior to the move. For every new young fan we've gained from Horwich and Westhoughton, how many have we missed in Farnworth,Great Lever and Breightmet where the ground is 2 bus journeys away?

[GhostoftheBok]

The club is less visible in the weekly routine of the town now that you don't see crowds of people in white shirts walking down Manchester Road. How that's changed attendance I don't know. On the plus side, it has been far easier to convince players they're coming to a "big" club when we've got a modern stadium, improved facilities etc. It's had positive as well as negative consequences and I think it's mostly been good for the image of the club outside the town. The club remained in denial about the negative impact within the town, though, so didn't do enough to overcome those issues. That's been my view of it, anyway.

[TANGODANCER]

All water long under the Croal Bridge now, and Burnden was falling down without a doubt. Only the location was ideal, but how it would have coped traffic wise with visitors I know not. Plenty space Little Lever way though. Who knows

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

I think there are a lot more factors at play when it comes to attendances. Aside from the amount of football on telly these days and the marketing of the premiership, there has been huge social change in the last decade or so that competes for attention. Shopping malls are now destinations for leisure rather than just shopping. Some folk practically experience the world through their phone and the likes of Netflix compete for attention. It's a different world now and football is more product than part of the fabric of the community. 30 quid to watch a drab football match in the cold, or a subscription to Netflix and sky? It used to be football or having to suffer my Mum listening to Cliff Richard now there are many more choices.

[Armchair Wanderer]

I think there are a lot more factors at play when it comes to attendances. Aside from the amount of football on telly these days and the marketing of the premiership, there has been huge social change in the last decade or so that competes for attention. Shopping malls are now destinations for leisure rather than just shopping. Some folk practically experience the world through their phone and the likes of Netflix compete for attention. It's a different world now and football is more product than part of the fabric of the community. 30 quid to watch a drab football match in the cold, or a subscription to Netflix and sky? It used to be football or having to suffer my Mum listening to Cliff Richard now there are many more choices.

What it costs me (one person) to go to one game is about the same as a year's subscription to Amazon Prime.

I personally do not watch dodgy streams or download torrents. I'm not going to say I'm particularly wealthy but I don't mind paying at all to watch at home. I get the thing in sports generally of wanting full stadiums but I would like the option to pay money to watch an official stream.

I think the Championship could do a lot more. If I paid £10 a game to BWFC to watch every game that would be £460 over a season, right? Or just home games would be £230. It might be different if I lived in Bolton/Horwich but I basically have the option of breaking the law or not watching football.

[TANGODANCER]

Ref the other comments which are very valid, granted; cost and the crazy greed of commerce and footballers, agents, media etc, etc, all weigh heavily against the game as it was. That factor alone has to be the main reason for diminishing crowds outside of the Premeiership. Location importance?, well, Old Trafford, Etiad, Goodison and Anfield just in this area alone, make the case for it well enough. Unfortunately, the Carpenters (along with the trade) can't make it "Yeserday Once More". On with it...

[Prufrock]

Are attendances dropping outside the Prem?

It's another example of the weakness of the individual in the face of the markets. In the scheme of things, above league 1 getting an extra couple of thousand through the door isn't the priority. As a fan you'd love to see them halve the prices to get nos through the door but money talks. Needs collective action and good to see the Prem had success limiting the prices of away tickets. We need more of that.

The TV is frustrating if you live out of the area but the rules are vital fit for protecting lower league clubs. I know several Wanderers season ticket holders who are Newcastle/ Southampton fans in exile. If they can get their team for a tenner that's fewer through our door. Live football should be prioritised far above TV watching. Without a hint of hyperbole I think it should be treated as a cultural issue.

As for us, I'm sure there are bits around the edges but I find it hard to get much past TDs point. No matter which way you drive out of the town there are two or three big, proper league clubs (and Wigan) within 45 min drive. There's a lot of competition. It's easy to get 40,000 Sunderland when there's f*ck all else there.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

I'm not a season ticket holder but I go to as many matches as I can (and there are plenty of clubs nearer if I wanted to, Derby, Forest, both Sheffields, both Manchesters). Supporting a team doesn't necessarily involve going to the nearest (although I realise geographic considerations play a large part).
In 'my day', it was a traditional family thing: I support Bolton because my grandad took me when I was a kid, and he took me because his grandad took him. I think a lot of that tradition is dying out these days. I blame ipads and vaping

[Prufrock]

Churches, pubs and football.

Three cornerstones of social life all unrecognisable from 30 years ago, maybe less. See, I'm not too fussed about the first one (:D) but the other two...

[TANGODANCER]

Churches, pubs and football.

Three cornerstones of social life all unrecognisable from 30 years ago, maybe less. See, I'm not too fussed about the first one (:D) but the other two...

Yes indeed (although, in the end the first will outlast the other two ) but add local cinemas, dance halls, libraries, swimming baths, rail and bus services that actually work and internet shopping and you have Bolton. (Take away a market, most of any bus services, and add a load of charity shops, cash convertors , tanning and nail parlours and you have Farnworth.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

a huge town (I think we're the largest non-city in the UK, but can stand correction on that score)

I was always tolkd as a boy we were the biggest town in the country, but nowadays I guess it depends how you cut it with unitary authorities, post-1974 boundaries and so on.

I think there's room for development of our fan base in the medium to long term.

As a trend, I'm genuinely unsure if football attendance numbers are going to rise and stay high. Leisure pursuits are fiercely competitive; we're all consumers now. The kind of unquestioning loyalty fans have demonstrated is now downright weird. Try translating it into any other entertainment sphere - a comedian, a dance troupe, a film director, a pub - and you (not "you" particularly) just wouldn't expect the same loyalty entirely unconnected to results.

In the short term, I do think increased success and better football make a difference in attendances in general and it'd be odd if Bolton were magically immune to that tendency. I mentioned Wolves earlier - they've seen a jump of about 7,000 in their average attendance on the back of their promotion push this term. The trouble with Bolton is that we've not had much excitement generated around the club in a long, long time. We are down by about 2000 by our normal "average" Championship attendance, I think (our promotion season back in 2000/01 saw home attendances around 16500, as I recall) but we are around a 17000 club in this division as "standard" I think. Again, I can stand correction there as I don't have figures to hand.

The figures are under this link – I posted it above but as an inline link, which don't stand out very well these days (could we change the colour of unclicked body-copy links to red, DJBlu?)
http://european-football-statistics.co. ... b/bolw.htm

Screen Shot 2018-03-26 at 10.45.39.png (47.59 KiB) Viewed 3343 times

In Sam's promotion season we averaged 16,106 - 650-odd more than we've averaged this season. In 2013/14 – Freedman's only full season - we averaged fractionally more at 16,141. That's more than we've averaged in every other second-tier season over the last quarter-century, except two immediately following relegation from the Premier (98/99 and 12/13) when enough people hung around to boost it to 18k. Notable that that shrunk fairly quickly thereafter, though – to the aforementioned 16,141 under Freedman (despite having nearly reached the play-offs) and way down to 14,384 in 1999/2000, when Sam took us to the play-offs and two domestic cup semi-finals.

Wolves have had a jump to 28k this season from a more fluctuating second-tier baseline, judging by their own numbers (click link here). They averaged 20k last season but more like 23k-25k a decade ago in this division.

None of which is to say we can't be a 17000 club in this division...but we haven't been, even with successful teams, except when we've got an overhang from a Premier campaign.

Thanks to Dujon sharing an extensive BWFC database with me I could do a deeper dive into these numbers - like whether they fluctuate within a season, etc - and I can try to answer questions but y'know, there's only so many hours in the day

The club, for me, has failed to rebuild itself as a central hub for the community; basically due to a lack of any real attempt to do that. I suppose that counts as an off-topic rant, so sorry about that - but I do think there's room there to develop the club going forward.

Not at all, as rants go it was interesting and thought-provoking. As you say there's the possibility of outreach into relatively untapped markets but it would be overturning history to suggest there's tons of headroom just for finishing a bit higher in this division.