We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue May 01, 2018 10:05 am

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:30 pm
I think I'm pathologically averse to end of season, whether predictable or nailbiting. I'm pretty sure I could cope as a youth, but maybe I didn't back then either, trouble is I can no longer remember.
Heh. Tell you what: summers were worse when we were younger. Unless it was a World Cup or a Euros (in which English participation was far from a given) there was an ocean of unfootballing waiting; more often than not the BN back page would be about cricket or some shit.

Now you can have all the football you want, and here's the best bit - it doesn't involve Bolton so I don't really have to care. :D

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by TANGODANCER » Tue May 01, 2018 11:19 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Tue May 01, 2018 10:05 am
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:30 pm
I think I'm pathologically averse to end of season, whether predictable or nailbiting. I'm pretty sure I could cope as a youth, but maybe I didn't back then either, trouble is I can no longer remember.
Heh. Tell you what: summers were worse when we were younger. Unless it was a World Cup or a Euros (in which English participation was far from a given) there was an ocean of unfootballing waiting; more often than not the BN back page would be about cricket or some shit.

Now you can have all the football you want, and here's the best bit - it doesn't involve Bolton so I don't really have to care. :D
Any football that doesn't involve Bolton Wanderers in just space filling in any media. I started life with a brother (thankfully converted now) who was United mad. Even at the tender age of ten or so, I thought he was a candidate for Prestwich Hospital. I was totally incapable of understanding how such a thing could happen. Now, many moons later, I have a daughter and her partner, sensible adults in every other aspect to life, an adult grandson and grandaughter all who pretend to support Manchester United (washes mouth out with Listerine) and a Bolton born next door neighbour who walks around in, and has raised his young son in, a Liverpool shirt. To the best of my knowlege they all rarely go to games. Bandwaggon jumpers and plastic supporters all. I can't, and never will, understand any of it other than a Bob Dylan "Positively Fourth Street" line, "You just want to be on the side that's winning!". I am ashamed of them. I shall pray for their souls. ae:)

ae:) ae:)
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by HMX » Tue May 01, 2018 12:08 pm

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by boltonboris » Tue May 01, 2018 12:40 pm

I don't even know what Expected goals are!
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue May 01, 2018 12:57 pm

boltonboris wrote:
Tue May 01, 2018 12:40 pm
I don't even know what Expected goals are!
In our case...nil.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by boltonboris » Wed May 02, 2018 5:46 pm

But what is it? Is it based on the number of chances created, or an average of goals per game or something?
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Prufrock » Wed May 02, 2018 5:54 pm

*Chunters quiety*
Prufrock wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:16 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:23 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:04 pm
Genuinely think xG is meaningless to the extent it is utterly worthless. How on earth do they expect to put a figure on whether someone "should" score. The variables are beyond our capabilities.
That's your right. I understand and I share some of your concern, principally over the qualitative assessment of quantitative statistics. (A colleague wrote a reasonable piece about it here.) But as they're done scientifically and carefully by an unbiased third party, I think there's some use in them; certainly you could argue that a 45-yard pea-roller which gradually bobbles into a goalkeeper's arms "on target" is much less of a "chance" than, say, Buckley heading wide (thus off-target) from two yards. It's all shoulda-woulda-coulda and we could argue forever on the individual assessments but as with other stat-sets, if it's assessed the same way over a decent length of time and a decent number of games it gives a good idea of trends.

And frankly the trend is that we're creating a lot fewer chances than before January 31st, almost back to how bad it was pre-Henry. I don't like that result, and I'll be perfectly honest and say I was hoping to discover we were creating just as many chances as with Madine thankyouverymuch. But having done the research, I would be a churl to withhold it.
Sure, and cheers for the link. I do still think they've properly jumped the shark though.

I'm broadly pro-stats, they have their limitations and their fetishization is annoying but I think the nerds are usually more on the money than the philistines.

Some thoughts:

1) I don't agree that any stat set assessed the same way over a decent length of time and a decent number of games gives a good idea of trends. You could track the eye colour of goalscorers in that way and it wouldn't indicate a "trend".

2) more importantly, xG, however many times it is described as one, is not a stat. How many shots a team has, while reductive and subject to some quibbles about how you define a shot is a stat. It's an objective recording of a thing that happened. xG is a conclusion, an interpretation.

3) Alan Shearer, bless him, is spot on. Any system that can't distinguish between the same chance falling to Harry Kane and falling to Shane Long is not fit for purpose. Never mind Harry Kane on his left foot v right, or when on a hat trick, or carrying a knock.

4) it's badly named. What it might be getting towards is "quality of chances" in relation to a mythical "average" player. Now broadly with caveats for accuracy that might be useful info. Has a tactical change resulted in creating more or fewer chances. But it doesn't help beyond that. The average player doesn't exist.

5) re: us. Not accounting for who chances fall to is a big reason to be wary of xG. Sure, ALF offers less all round than Nadine, and so you would expect us to create fewer and less good quality chances, but you would also expect (that word) him to take more of the chances we do create. So xG doesn't help predicting how many goals you'd expect us to score based on those chances. Which is a flaw.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Abdoulaye's Twin » Wed May 02, 2018 7:45 pm

A couple of weeks ago it was insisting we were almost definitely staying up, and now that we are almost definitely probably going down. Over analysing nonsense for me... which fits in nicely round here :D

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Wed May 02, 2018 8:10 pm

Abdoulaye's Twin wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 7:45 pm
A couple of weeks ago it was insisting we were almost definitely staying up, and now that we are almost definitely probably going down. Over analysing nonsense for me... which fits in nicely round here :D
As I've said previously... It's nonsense.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Abdoulaye's Twin » Wed May 02, 2018 8:46 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 8:10 pm
Abdoulaye's Twin wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 7:45 pm
A couple of weeks ago it was insisting we were almost definitely staying up, and now that we are almost definitely probably going down. Over analysing nonsense for me... which fits in nicely round here :D
As I've said previously... It's nonsense.
Ahh, I thought you were talking nonsense when you said it was nonsense. Too much nonsense is confuddling :)

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu May 03, 2018 9:57 am

I'll say again: :D
297.jpg
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A longer xG explanation: https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/no ... d-goals-xg

I'll say again: it's a flawed system (mainly because it mixes qualitative and quantitative analysis) but nonetheless interesting because it's a system applied equally across teams by an unbiased observer, rather than a doom-mongering "We're never gonna win again, burn the stadium" or a rose-tinted "Evry little thing's gon b alright".

Statistics can always be used for better or worse, and I understand why people would object to their misuse, but I'll say again, again: I'd rather have more information than not enough. Indeed, it's been fascinating to watch the bar charts shrink as what was mathematically probable (not certain). It's been an illustration of where precisely we've gone wrong and how good a situation we've f*cked up.

And y'know, you don't have to read it. There are entire other forums on T-W that I don't read because I'm not interested in the subject; I don't feel the need to repeatedly say so. That's not discussion, that's closing down conversation. FOR SHAME, SIR. :D

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Prufrock » Thu May 03, 2018 11:02 am

Abe Simpson said rather than wrote:I used to be with IT but then they changed what IT was. Now what I'm with isn't IT, and what's IT seems scary and weird. It'll happen to YOU!
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Thu May 03, 2018 11:47 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:57 am
I'll say again: :D

And y'know, you don't have to read it. There are entire other forums on T-W that I don't read because I'm not interested in the subject; I don't feel the need to repeatedly say so. That's not discussion, that's closing down conversation. FOR SHAME, SIR. :D
Nobody's trying to close down discussion. Just coz somebody says something two or three times doesn't necessarily make it wrong... as you said yourself you'd said it before, and maybe you don't feel the need to repeatedly say so you actually have done. Sometimes nuanced opinion can be untwisted from bare statements of opposition, but for that to happen the subject sometimes needs to be revisited, and sometimes often.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu May 03, 2018 2:59 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 11:47 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:57 am
I'll say again: :D

And y'know, you don't have to read it. There are entire other forums on T-W that I don't read because I'm not interested in the subject; I don't feel the need to repeatedly say so. That's not discussion, that's closing down conversation. FOR SHAME, SIR. :D
Nobody's trying to close down discussion. Just coz somebody says something two or three times doesn't necessarily make it wrong... as you said yourself you'd said it before, and maybe you don't feel the need to repeatedly say so you actually have done. Sometimes nuanced opinion can be untwisted from bare statements of opposition, but for that to happen the subject sometimes needs to be revisited, and sometimes often.
True. Do show me the nuance in your post, reproduced in its entirety below.
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 8:10 pm
As I've said previously... It's nonsense.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu May 03, 2018 3:10 pm

Anyway. Quite simple this weekend.
Screen Shot 2018-05-03 at 15.01.15.png
Screen Shot 2018-05-03 at 15.01.15.png (29.39 KiB) Viewed 1452 times
Games, all 12.30pm:
Birmingham v Fulham
Bolton v Forest
Cardiff v Reading
Derby v Barnsley
Preston v Burton

Nothing but a win will do for us. A win would take us to 43pts. We need Barnsley and Burton not to win: draws would take them to 42pts, losses would maroon them on 41.

If we draw and Barnsley lose, we're still below them and relegated (unless they lose by 16).
If we draw and Burton lose, we're above them but we're both relegated (whatever Barnsley do).

Where it might get interesting is if we win and Birmingham lose. We're four goals behind them (and we've scored one more) and they're playing Fulham, a good team who need to win to get automatic promotion, so it's not impossible to imagine a four-goal turnaround there. That would put us above Birmingham, then we'd only need one of Barnsley or Burton to fail to win.

Reading will only get dragged into it if the three teams below them win. Highly unlikely we'll catch them (3pts and 14 goals behind) but as they're at Cardiff and, frankly, shit then it's not inconceivable they could go down yet. But as I say, that would require Birmingham to beat the division's third-best team, Barnsley to beat the sixth-best and Burton to beat the seventh-best.

Funnily enough, in a way we don't want Derby to score too early against Barnsley, because we don't want Preston to give up against Burton. But, again, all this is dependent on us doing our job anyway.

What we do know is that we go into Sunday with two teams going for one automatic promotion place, three teams going for one play-off slot and five teams fighting to avoid two drop spots. Should be fascinating.
Last edited by Dave Sutton's barnet on Thu May 03, 2018 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by knobpolisher » Thu May 03, 2018 3:40 pm

Ha !
You missed a scenario, if we draw and Burton lose and Barnsley lose 16 - 0 we finish above both of them. Very poor analytics.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Thu May 03, 2018 3:42 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 2:59 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 11:47 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:57 am
I'll say again: :D

And y'know, you don't have to read it. There are entire other forums on T-W that I don't read because I'm not interested in the subject; I don't feel the need to repeatedly say so. That's not discussion, that's closing down conversation. FOR SHAME, SIR. :D
Nobody's trying to close down discussion. Just coz somebody says something two or three times doesn't necessarily make it wrong... as you said yourself you'd said it before, and maybe you don't feel the need to repeatedly say so you actually have done. Sometimes nuanced opinion can be untwisted from bare statements of opposition, but for that to happen the subject sometimes needs to be revisited, and sometimes often.
True. Do show me the nuance in your post, reproduced in its entirety below.
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 8:10 pm
As I've said previously... It's nonsense.
WHoaaa! Hold your horses there cowboy!
You'll note the opening and important point I made was that nobody was trying to close down discussion. You'll then note that I used the word 'sometimes' in relationship to 'nuanced'. You'll thirdly note that the quote you so kindly reproduced in its entirety was in reply to another poster entirely, one who up to that point hadn't taken part in the 'conversation'. I am still entitled to an opinion you know, even if it differs from yours, nuanced or not.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu May 03, 2018 4:16 pm

knobpolisher wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 3:40 pm
Ha !
You missed a scenario, if we draw and Burton lose and Barnsley lose 16 - 0 we finish above both of them. Very poor analytics.
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I'll edit the original :D

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu May 03, 2018 4:23 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 3:42 pm
I am still entitled to an opinion you know, even if it differs from yours, nuanced or not.
Never said you weren't mate. I enjoy your opinions most of the time. I just find your insistence on trumpeting your dislike for stats a bit tiresome, especially when I've gone to the effort of researching/posting them. Kind of deflating when I spend a while collating information which some might find as interesting as I do but then the reaction is "nonsense". I'm sure you can understand that. Least, I hope so. Whatever. :D

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Thu May 03, 2018 4:43 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 4:23 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 3:42 pm
I am still entitled to an opinion you know, even if it differs from yours, nuanced or not.
Never said you weren't mate. I enjoy your opinions most of the time. I just find your insistence on trumpeting your dislike for stats a bit tiresome, especially when I've gone to the effort of researching/posting them. Kind of deflating when I spend a while collating information which some might find as interesting as I do but then the reaction is "nonsense". I'm sure you can understand that. Least, I hope so. Whatever. :D
I shall endeavour to reign in my dislike of statistics. I have no intention of deflating you, or undermining your research. I enjoy your posts and have no issue with you, your posts or your views.

(In my defence I was merely reacting to an observation regarding the bar chart that changed so dramatically on the outcome of one game).
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