We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Burton however, will murder us.

Nah, Burton don't murder anyone, ever.

It will be a close, nervy game....

Stats back Bristol. Burton's league record this season:

Screen Shot 2018-04-25 at 10.09.49.png (21.24 KiB) Viewed 3636 times

In case you're wondering, they won 3-0 at Hillsborough on New Year's Day. They are one of seven Championship teams who've only once this season won by more than two goals. There is a team in our division who hasn't managed it once. Can you guess?

On the flip-side – big defeats rather than big wins - their record of losing five games by four or more is the easily the worst in the Football League: nobody else has done it more than three times. In the Champo, we've done it three times (twice to the champions plus at Hull), Brum and QPR have done it twice, plus six teams once each.

http://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?le ... and2&tid=e

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

One other thing. On Sunday, HMX posted this, and correctly described it as "just shy of a coin flip":

22-04.png (33.31 KiB) Viewed 3631 times

Well, here's what last night did to Barnsley's chances, says The Big Computer:

25-04.png (180.74 KiB) Viewed 3631 times

Oh and the night's other result wasn't bad either. Cardiff losing means the race for second will hopefully go down to the final day, when they host Reading and Fulham visit Birmingham. More immediately, Derby winning makes it even more important for Brentford to win this Saturday at Barnsley – and as Derby have to go to Villa this weekend, it's reasonably likely they'll need something when hosting Barnsley on the last day.

Again, it's all working out for us – but again, it's still up to us not to f--k it up.

[Harry Genshaw]

My worry is that Burton can be as bad as they like at the back. We don't create enough or shoot enough to worry them.

Barnsley saw us score 2 for the first time in ages but seemingly just as rarely, we got one from open play. It seemed so long since we'd last done that.

I'm praying for an out of the blue experience Saturday, something akin to Fleetwood last year where everything falls into place. Failing that, a last minute penalty winner from Alf when we've been pegged back all game, will do just as nicely

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

My worry is that Burton can be as bad as they like at the back. We don't create enough or shoot enough to worry them.

Barnsley saw us score 2 for the first time in ages but seemingly just as rarely, we got one from open play. It seemed so long since we'd last done that.

I'm praying for an out of the blue experience Saturday, something akin to Fleetwood last year where everything falls into place. Failing that, a last minute penalty winner from Alf when we've been pegged back all game, will do just as nicely

Know what you mean HG but in that second half we could have had much more than one open-play goal. I haven't seen us look as likely to score all season. I know it's partly because Barnsley are bad but evidently so are Burton. And as I will keep insisting, hopefully not in wistful regret, it was because we untethered the full-backs and went at them.

[TANGODANCER]

Adopt the Richard Sneekes war cry and.." SHOOOOOOOT"....

[Harry Genshaw]

Ah right. Having missed Barnsley I had no idea whether Noones effort was a flash in the pan, or just one of many opportunities that we were able to take.

Great shout TD - what wouldn't we give for a Richie Sneekes right now? He'd be worth a fortune!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Just for a little clarity: even with only two games to go, there are plenty of permutations. Any of the bottom six teams could go down; we could finish bottom or 19th. I’ll go into the possibilities in more details below – rendered from this useful/terrifying website http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calc ... mpionship/ – but regarding this weekend and for the sake of simplicity, it’s very straightforward.

For starters, cut it down to two games: If we win and Barnsley don’t, we are mathematically safe. That includes Barnsley drawing, which (if we win) would leave them 4pts behind: we’re safe.

If Barnsley match our result, it goes down to the last day. We’d be 2pts clear of Barnsley but with a worse goal difference. And depending on what “our result” is, Burton might be above both of us and out of the drop-zone…

(FYI: As regards Burton’s survival – if we win, they’re mathematically relegated; if we don’t, they take it to the last day. There’s no way they can get safe this week.)
———
If we draw, the drama continues into the last day: and we might need favours.

If we draw and Barnsley win, they go above us on goal difference and we need to get a better result (not just scoreline, but W/D/L) next weekend. Burton, having avoided defeat to us, would still be in play: we’d be 2pts above them but with a better GD, so there’s a world in which Barnsley, Bolton and Burton all end up on the same points - but Barnsley would survive on GD. (Next weekend’s games: Bolton-Forest, Derby-Barnsley, Preston-Burton.)

If we draw and Barnsley draw, they've matched our result so it goes down to the last day. We’d be 2pts clear of Barnsley but with a worse goal difference, so we’d need to beat Forest to make sure we don’t go down on GD next week. Burton, having avoided defeat to us, would still be in play: we’d be 2pts above them but with a better GD, so there’s a world in which Barnsley, Bolton and Burton all end up on the same points - but Barnsley would survive on GD.

If we draw and Barnsley lose, we’re above the dots but not safe. Burton would be our nearest challengers, 2pts and 10 goals behind; Barnsley would be 3pts behind us but up to 10 better off on GD. Therefore, a draw against Forest would keep us safe (unless Burton beat Preston by 10 on the last day to overtake us on GD).

——
If we lose, we’re below the pips and it’s out of our hands (but thanks to Barnsley having lost at Forest, we can no longer simply go down on the day).

If we lose and Barnsley lose, we stay 2pts above Barnsley – but go 1pt behind Burton. So we’d be relying on others next week (if we draw v Forest we need Derby to win or draw v Barnsley and Preston to beat Burton; if we win v Forest it doesn’t matter about Barnsley but we need Preston to win or draw v Burton).

If we lose and Barnsley draw, we’re 1pt above Barnsley and 1pt behind Burton. So we’d be relying on others next week - same permutations as previous paragraph.

If we lose and Barnsley win, we’re 1pt below both Barnsley (better GD than us) and Burton (worse GD than us). So we’d have to beat Forest next week while also relying on others (we’d need Derby to win or draw v Barnsley and Preston to win or draw v Burton).

So, in very short:
Bolton win, Barnsley lose – SAFE
Bolton win, Barnsley draw – SAFE
Bolton win, Barnsley win - IN OUR HANDS

Bolton draw, Barnsley lose – IN OUR HANDS (unless we draw and Burton win by 10)
Bolton draw, Barnsley draw – IN OUR HANDS
Bolton draw, Barnsley win – NEED HELP FROM DERBY

Bolton lose, Barnsley lose – NEED HELP FROM PRESTON
Bolton lose, Barnsley draw – NEED HELP FROM PRESTON
Bolton lose, Barnsley win – NEED HELP FROM PRESTON + DERBY

[knobpolisher]

Very good summation, of course worth pointing out that both Barnsley and burton would swop fixtures with us at the drop of a hat.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Very good summation, of course worth pointing out that both Barnsley and burton would swop fixtures with us at the drop of a hat.

Aye.

I know exactly what it'll be like for those following it, either on the terrace or nervously pacing and watching from afar. Easy to forget how simple the best-case is: We win, Barnsley don't, we're up.

[BWFC_Insane]

It is quite simple for me. Win at Burton and we have an incredibly high chance of survival regardless of Barnsley's result. I'd fancy us on the last day given Barnsley are at Derby.

Draw at Burton and still I think we'd have a very good chance, even if Barnsley won against Brentford.

Lose to Burton and we're well and truly in the mire!

[TANGODANCER]

Put it beyond doubt. Win both. Simple..

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Put it beyond doubt. Win both. Simple..

If it were That simple, we'd have achieved automatic promotion to the Premiership by Christmas.

I'm more worried by the unseen financial shenanigans Mr Anderson will\is\has perform/ing/ed. In the mass hysteria of relegation fear blues we've all but forgotten we are in dire financial shit. I don't think it's improved much recently, and have very little faith that Ken is the Messiah, even if we stay up.

[BWFC_Insane]

Put it beyond doubt. Win both. Simple..

If it were That simple, we'd have achieved automatic promotion to the Premiership by Christmas.

I'm more worried by the unseen financial shenanigans Mr Anderson will\is\has perform/ing/ed. In the mass hysteria of relegation fear blues we've all but forgotten we are in dire financial shit. I don't think it's improved much recently, and have very little faith that Ken is the Messiah, even if we stay up.

He clearly isn't. I don't think there is a debate. He needs to find investment or sell it. But that is easier said than done. Until then we're the paupers of the division and when you see Wigan and Blackburn are coming up, both will likely have more resources than us unless something changes.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Put it beyond doubt. Win both. Simple..

If it were That simple, we'd have achieved automatic promotion to the Premiership by Christmas.

I'm more worried by the unseen financial shenanigans Mr Anderson will\is\has perform/ing/ed. In the mass hysteria of relegation fear blues we've all but forgotten we are in dire financial shit. I don't think it's improved much recently, and have very little faith that Ken is the Messiah, even if we stay up.

He clearly isn't. I don't think there is a debate. He needs to find investment or sell it.But that is easier said than done. Until then we're the paupers of the division and when you see Wigan and Blackburn are coming up, both will likely have more resources than us unless something changes.

The trouble is is that I don't think Mr Anderson sees it in the terms you do. I think that he thinks he's a very clever boy, and is trying to maximise his profits. I don't think he wants investment he can't control, and I think he only wants to sell when it makes him an absolute fortune. The obvious path on that route is bankruptcy. I think we are are closer to it now than we were at the end of The Davies Era. It just happens to be sneaking up on us, slither sliding through the grass. If we stay up I think it will still be slithering and quite able to strike at any time. If we go down then we're just fodder.

[Harry Genshaw]

If we draw and Barnsley lose, we’re above the dots but not safe. Burton would be our nearest challengers, 2pts and 10 goals behind; Barnsley would be 3pts behind us but up to 10 better off on GD. Therefore, a draw against Forest would keep us safe (unless Barnsley score eight or so at Derby on the last day to overtake us on GD).

Sorry to do this DSB, & if I've read it wrong I apologise, my heads beginning to hurt with the permutations BUT

If we draw Saturday and Barnsley lose. A draw for us against Forest on the last day would keep us, however many Barnsley score, no?

Derby seem to capitulate against every one but us (& Cardiff bizarrely) so I'm hoping I've got that right!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

If we draw and Barnsley lose, we’re above the dots but not safe. Burton would be our nearest challengers, 2pts and 10 goals behind; Barnsley would be 3pts behind us but up to 10 better off on GD. Therefore, a draw against Forest would keep us safe (unless Barnsley score eight or so at Derby on the last day to overtake us on GD).

Sorry to do this DSB, & if I've read it wrong I apologise, my heads beginning to hurt with the permutations BUT

If we draw Saturday and Barnsley lose. A draw for us against Forest on the last day would keep us, however many Barnsley score, no?

Derby seem to capitulate against every one but us (& Cardiff bizarrely) so I'm hoping I've got that right!

No problem, hang on
We draw (let's say 0-0), Barnsley lose (let's say 1-0), table looks like this

Screen Shot 2018-04-27 at 10.14.56.png (22.68 KiB) Viewed 3815 times

So yes, if we then get a point against Forest (thus going to 42pts) we finish above Barnsley whatever they do. Where I've confused myself if that we wouldn't necessarily finish above Burton. They'd be 2pts and 10 goals behind us, so they'd have to shellack Preston by a 10-goal margin – not impossible but improbable.

In other words you're right (mostly) and I got it wrong above. I'll nip back in to edit, just in case anybody's feverishly checking after 5pm tomorrow.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

One other thing. On Sunday, HMX posted this, and correctly described it as "just shy of a coin flip":

22-04.png

Well, here's what last night did to Barnsley's chances, says The Big Computer:

25-04.png


Oh and the night's other result wasn't bad either. Cardiff losing means the race for second will hopefully go down to the final day, when they host Reading and Fulham visit Birmingham. More immediately, Derby winning makes it even more important for Brentford to win this Saturday at Barnsley – and as Derby have to go to Villa this weekend, it's reasonably likely they'll need something when hosting Barnsley on the last day.

Again, it's all working out for us – but again, it's still up to us not to f--k it up.

And This. Really. I'm beginning to hope that Burton do us 17-0 just so I I don't need to concentrate on this xrap anymore. I go to a game to watch a game, I'm not there to see if it falls within the parameters somebody has decided it should do. We can all do that shit without even being there!!!!

[Lost Leopard Spot]

So, so much for the graphic with the red and orange bands telling us we were safe...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

So, so much for the graphic with the red and orange bands telling us we were safe...

The graphics, worked out by an unbiased algorithm, showed that we should have won. It should be adding to your point.

Fifteen goals short of what you wanted, though.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

So, so much for the graphic with the red and orange bands telling us we were safe...

The graphics, worked out by an unbiased algorithm, showed that we should have won. It should be adding to your point.

Fifteen goals short of what you wanted, though.

Yep.I was beginning to rant there. I think I'm pathologically averse to end of season, whether predictable or nailbiting. I'm pretty sure I could cope as a youth, but maybe I didn't back then either, trouble is I can no longer remember.