We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

[TonyDomingos]

Reading 0-2 Birmingham this evening. Helpful in that it leaves the Royals in the mix, just 3pts above us.

[BWFC_Insane]

Reading 0-2 Birmingham this evening. Helpful in that it leaves the Royals in the mix, just 3pts above us.

Hmm. I cannot for the life of me see Reading going down. They surely have enough to stay up? Burn on the other hand...

It would have been better for Birmingham to lose this. As it stands after the next round of games we could easily be bottom of the pile again.

It’s going to be ever so close right up to the final game I think.

[Harry Genshaw]

Reading would be a big surprise but they're 4 points behind Forest who just sacked their manager and 2 behind Millwall and Qpr so you never know.

Teams are picking points up here, there and everywhere. Hull, Reading and Sheffield Wednesday all appear in free fall at the moment. Lots of twists and turns until the seasons end I reckon

[bristol_Wanderer3]

I find this interesting. This is a league table since the beginning of October when we first started a game with Henry, Vela and Ameobi in the same team.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/champio ... =12&max=26

We are ninth, level on points with seventh placed Cardiff, and eighth placed Leeds. And all this from a starting position of being down and out with no confidence and no idea how to score never mind win. It is possible to conclude that this side is now a decent Championship side and we are well placed to stay up and kick on again next year.

All of that assumes stability at the top, and no more serious injuries to key players. If Madine gets seriously injured, or arrested tomorrow we are relegated. I was heartened by how Vela played in a more defensive role in the Hull game, but right now I would say the same about Henry. And I am intrigued to see if Ken really goes through the JTW without trying to cash in on Madine or Vela, which would mean he would be funding a £5m-£6m loss, something I personally never saw him doing. Maybe he has found outside financial help? Sadly, the way the Championship is these days, you either need parachute payments or a rich owner to financially survive. Currently I can only think of Burton who have neither of these, and I thought us.

If we can have that stability off the pitch, and do keep the majority of our squad together, accepting we could well lose Burke, and add a couple of players to cover Madine and central midfield, I really think we will stay up. We would have a good enough manager, and enough ability in the squad to make it. None of the other teams are currently doing us any favours, but Sunderland are really struggling in all aspects, have an absentee owner who wants to sell and so have little money available, and could lose their 12 goal top scorer due to loan recall. Burton have little money and struggle to score, Birmingham might have money but also find it hard to score, Barnsley I think are the worst of the lot ability wise, although they have new owners who might splash some cash. Hull have some decent players, but problems with the owners, and so a negative atmosphere around the club, are in consistently poor form, and have played the new manager card to seemingly little effect. QPR and Millwall have little quality, and Forest and Sheffield Wed are currently managerless and struggling, despite splashing loads of cash on their squads. There is enough there for us not to be in the bottom three. And it would be a wonderful achievement, better than last years promotion imho. COYW.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Reading massively overachieved last season: they had a goal difference of +4, for Pete's sake. Not unlike how we almost squeaked into the playoffs under Dougie and then drifted down, but these things can well accelerate. Worth imagining what might have happened had we held on to that 2-0 lead at ours against them: they'd have only been a point above us and two above the drop zone.

Birmingham are statistically fascinating. They're a bit like a shit version of that thing I mentioned yesterday where only one team scores; in Cotterill's 17 games, 13 of them have involved one or other side drawing a blank. The Blues themselves only scored four times in his first 12 games, but those four goals got them nine points (three 1-0 wins and the consolation in a 6-1 shellacking at Hull). But they've now scored in four of their last five, adding another seven points to the pile. Last night's game is the first time they'd scored more than one under Cotterill.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I find this interesting. This is a league table since the beginning of October when we first started a game with Henry, Vela and Ameobi in the same team.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/champio ... =12&max=26

Interesting table that - lookit Hull and Wednesday in freefall, with their early points hauls giving them a false sense of safety (from their first 11 games SWFC got 16pts, Hull 12).

[Harry Genshaw]

The next couple of years will probably see a few other championship clubs following our disastrous financial plight. Hull already look like we did around the Freedman early Lennon period. Sunderland will need to get back up pretty soon too yet look more likely at the moment to go the other way.

It remains to be seen whether the Burnley method is the way ahead - the true test will be when they come back down and how easily they can restructure - but Preston look well poised to be the next such club. Getting better each year and appearing to live within their means.

There's an interesting article in wsc this month on Ipswich. Their owner bought them as a new championship club in 2003 (thank you Fredi) for £32million. Since that time their debt to this one owner has increased to nearly £90million. He can't find anyone willing to purchase them, there's no new investment and no prospect of premier league riches on the horizon.

If we can stay up this year, stay solvent and get our costs under control we could be in a much stronger position than many in the division next season

[palindromeofbolton]

Just been looking at what the enemies have coming up in the cup this weekend.

M'boro v Sunderland
Birmingham v Burton
Millwall v Barnsley
Blackburn v Hull
QPR v MK Dons
Stevengage v Reading

Sunderland have a bit of a thankless draw - beat Boro and you can't really claim it as a proper cup scalp; draw and you're putting your players through another 90 minutes; lose and that knife Barnsley just stuck in you at NY gets twisted).

Next two on the list are getting into 6-pointer territory if they were happening in the league rather than the cup. Much of the Sunderland predicament applies to all four, but mental blow factor for the losers is amplified more I'd say.

And Hull, QPR and Reading both start Saturday with one foot over a banana skin. Like Sunderland, no massive woop woops if they win (indeed, even less so), while a defeat will feel pretty savage. Hull will actually start as underdogs with the bookies.

So all in all, I think we've got a reasonably plum tie by comparison - pressure off but can still claim a scalp etc. etc.

EDIT: Meant to add - even if this only has a 0.002% bearing on the league campaign, that's still 0.001% more than Liam Trotter ever contributed to a campaign, so pls bear it in mind.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

How the BBC saw PoB's list above:
M'boro 2-0 Sunderland - "routine victory" (BBC), goalkeeper Steele "arguably at fault for both goals". Coleman: "you don't go into a dogfight with kittens".
Birmingham 1-0 Burton - BBC says Blues "edged a scrappy" win; "Burton seized control after a cagey opening 30 minutes". Not sure this was a glorious day for either team; Cotterill predictably happy with a third successive win to nil, but Clough notes Burton had "more chances than we did in our three victories on the spin". Blues now visit Huddersfield.
Millwall 4-1 Barnsley - Tykes went in front then collapsed after a red card at 2-1. One win in 12 for them.
Blackburn 0-1 Hull - Tigers shade it for an "uneventful victory" and now host Forest.
QPR 0-1 MK Dons - Ollie only made one change from his previous league line-up but they still got done, scoring zero from 19 attempts.
Stevenage 0-0 Reading - "increased the pressure on Jaap Stam", with 12 shots to Reading's 6. Royals won replay 3-0 and now visit Sheffield Wednesday.

Anyway, back to reality, and the league looks tight as a duck's arse. By tomorrow teatime we could be 19th or 24th.

18. Reading - 29
19. Barnsley - 27
20. Hull - 25
21. Bolton - 25
22. Burton - 24
23. Brum - 23
25. Sunderland - 22

Reading host Brentford, who eased past us last week and might fancy their chances in what nobody calls the M4 derby.
Barnsley, bottom of the last-10 form table with 7pts, visit Villa, 5th in that table with 18pts.
Hull visit Sunderland: they can't both win, and if we beat Ipswich, it's tempting to want a Sunderland win, although a draw would be best.
Burton visit Fulham, 3rd in the last-10 form table with 22pts having won their last four home games.
Birmingham visit Preston, 4th in the last-10 form table with 19pts; the Lilywhites are better away than at home, although they've only lost one of the last five there.

It's all there for us if we can do our job. (Last-10 form, both us and Ipswich are both in midtable with W4 D1 L5.) It would be very nice to hoik ourselves up a line or two considering we don't play again for a fortnight and everyone else does: in the interim, there's Barnsley-Fulham (Sat 27) plus Birmingham-Sunderland, Burton-Reading and Hull-Leeds on Tue 30. But that's another story...

(Further reading: our old mate Louise Taylor on the struggles of Sunderland and Hull – and Boro – since relegation: https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... relegation)

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

The telescoping continues. Before today's game there were seven points separating the bottom seven; now it's five. Reading's 1-0 home defeat to Brentford drops them to within four points of the drop zone; the Royals are now rock-bottom of the last-6 form table. Sunderland's 1-0 win over relegation rivals Hull means those two teams are now split only by goal difference and that vital dotted line. Barnsley losing 3-1 at Villa isn't a vast surprise but Burton will be hurt by their 6-0 battering at Fulham, now the tier's form team, who travel to Oakwell next Saturday. The Brewers drop back to the bottom, sliding past Birmingham who got a very Cotterill 0-0 at Preston.

18 Reading 29
19 Barnsley 27
20 Bolton 26
21 Hull 25
-----------
22 Sunderland 25
23 Birmingham 24
24 Burton 24

Up next: Barnsley-Fulham (Sat 27) plus Birmingham-Sunderland, Burton-Reading and Hull-Leeds on Tue 30.

[officer_dibble]

Could well be back in the bottom 3 when we next turn out then.

I reckon Hull will go. Perfect storm of shite owners, fans who have lost interest and players who don’t play like a team.

Burton maybe. Had their run now? Sunderland will climb clear I reckon.

Can see us v Birmingham for the final spot. They are pretty handy at escaping relegation. Coterril is a scrapper.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Could well be back in the bottom 3 when we next turn out then.

I reckon Hull will go. Perfect storm of shite owners, fans who have lost interest and players who don’t play like a team.

Burton maybe. Had their run now? Sunderland will climb clear I reckon.

Can see us v Birmingham for the final spot. They are pretty handy at escaping relegation. Coterril is a scrapper.

I agree. Hull, Burton and us v one other, that other not being Sunderland.

[TANGODANCER]

Mood might depend muchly on next weekends results which we can't affect even if we wanted to. If they go for us we need to take advantage of that by scragging a few points anywhere we can. I know, it a Sherlock...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I think there's a few swings left yet.

Burton look doomed for now but so did we before recovering from much further adrift; they're only three points off 17th. They've also got two years' dogfight experience.

Sunderland still look ropy, let's not get too carried away with beating a Hull side who've won one in 15. In the 6 league games since Coleman came in they've got 7pts, which is hardly the bounce they might have wanted; they've also scored three goals, lost at home to Barnsley, been beaten to nil in the cup by Boro and lost their main striker. I don't reckon they've booked the open-top bus just yet.

Birmingham could go either way. Cotterill's making them very hard to score against but they also look quite toothless and only once scored more than one goal; since the 6-1 hammering at Hull the day after he took over (29 Sep), in 17 games they've scored 9 and conceded 20, but their five clean sheets have brought them 13 points (four wins, three of them 1-0, plus creditable bagels in the derby).

Barnsley could be interesting depending how their takeover goes, and I'd keep an eye on Reading, who are in atrocious form. They haven't won a league game since Dec 2 (at Coleman's Sunderland), and in the eight games since then they've got just three points, throwing away a 2-0 lead with 10 minutes to go against Cardiff, losing at Ipswich, losing at home to Burton, losing at Bristol City, drawing at Barnsley (conceding an injury-time equaliser), losing at home to Birmingham (2-0 - the only side Cotterill's team have scored more than one against), drawing 0-0 at Hull and now losing at home to Brentford. Since that Cardiff comeback they've scored 0,1,0,1,0,0,0. (Oh and in the cup they were held 0-0 at Stevenage, currently 15th in the fourth tier.) They're four points above the drop zone and their next eight opponents include Burton, Boro, Blades, Forest, Derby, Wolves... and then us.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Can see us v Birmingham for the final spot. They are pretty handy at escaping relegation. Coterril is a scrapper.

This intrigued me so I looked up his record in this division since he left Burnley (over a decade ago):

Pompey: appointed June 2010, finished 16th, left the club to go to Forest
Forest: appointed 14 Oct 2011 (in 20th), finished 19th, left the club
Bristol City: took them up from t3 to t2 in 2015; sacked 14 Jan 2016 with them in 22nd.

So, mixed, really. Credit to him for keeping nosediving Pompey up, and Forest was a weird situation with the Al-Hasawi takeover ending his tenure, but Bristol City didn't work out at all. He's a very functional, quite miserable manager, which is why I preferred Nigel Adkins when it seemed to be a straight shootout for the Bolton job after our own relegation. He's also known to walk away from clubs - left Notts County after winning the bottom-tier title, left Forest despite the new owner wanting to keep him, left QPR (as a coach) despite them wanting to keep him, left Birmingham (as a coach) last summer despite them wanting to keep him. I dunno, he just doesn't seem a very inspiring man.

[Harry Genshaw]

Hull are in a mess but I think they've enough goals in their side to stop up this year.

Gravity suggests Burton have to go eventually but their win at Wednesday recently was impressive.

I can't see Sunderland getting out of it. They're a real basket case at the moment and with Jack Rodwell on 70k a week, they can't bring the quality in that they need. His wage alone would fund 4 good championship players

[bristol_Wanderer3]

Both Reading and Hull are interesting and have a lot in common. They both have a number of expensive players and both try to pass the ball short from their own box to the opponents box, and arguably both aren't quite good enough to pull that style off. And they both concede soft goals, and don't have a consistent striker and so struggle to score at the other end. I still find it hard to see Reading in particular going down, but Stam is inexperienced as a manager and probably doesn't know how to play any other way. I am sure they will sack him before it gets too much worse, and then there is some uncertainty whether a new manager can change their style effectively to pick up some points. Hull have already had the managerial change, which hasn't produced the needed "bounce". There is a toxic atmosphere around the club with the Allams determined to fleece the club to get their investment back. Their defence is based on young Chelsea loanees and a number of other players don't seem to want to be there. There is every chance they won't find the necessary spirit required to get out of this.

That all been said, Hull and Reading have way better players than the other five of us down there. I still see Barnsley as the worst of the lot, with very few of their team having experience of the Championship, never mind the pressure of a Championship relegation battle. They are a good example of what happens when you continually sell your best players. I think Sunderland are in trouble too. Coleman might be a decent manager, but in this window they have lost Grabban and Vaughan their only two established strikers, and Darron Gibson has got injured too. Ownership issues and a negative atmosphere around the place mean it might be hard to maintain the necessary spirit. Burton are poor but know how to fight a relegation battle, as do Birmingham. If we hold our nerve and keep Madine, and avoid injuries to Madine or Henry we will be fine. Barnsley, Hull and Sunderland to go down for me.

I should add that everyone will be trying to strengthen in the next 10 days so it will be interesting to see how it looks come 1st Feb.

[officer_dibble]

Fair does to Millwall for being nowhere near this. Limited budget, finished some way off us last year. Neil Harris must be a very good manager.

[TANGODANCER]

See Gary Madine's "agent" has put in for him a pay rise. It won't be about money mind, just his value as a world class striker... Terrific timing when everyone else is talking about pay cuts. Agents, I'd ban the lot of em.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Fair does to Millwall for being nowhere near this. Limited budget, finished some way off us last year. Neil Harris must be a very good manager.

Limited budget by the standards of the division, for sure, but they could afford to give players like James Meredith and Conor McLaughlin wages we couldn't compete with, and they spent £1.2m in total on George Saville, Jed Wallace and Jake Cooper. But yep, kudos to Harris - they've now done the double over Leeds, as well as beating Blades and Boro and holding Wolves - while losing at home to Barnsley and Burton.