Reconstruction time again: the summer 2018 transfer thread

[Prufrock]

Aye, maybe two "good" (i.e. very much not back up only) CMs. Think we can get away with one target man being a bench Wilbrahimovic upgrade, one CB a Dervite upgrade.

We need one proper main man striker, and one proper main man CB.

[mullayo]

Think we need two centre mids but yeah, just a new spine!

Yeah exactly. It's like food poisoning bad at both ends and presumably the middle too.

Statistically we SHOULD have been relegated.
Third worst scoring with 39 goals only Burton and Birm were worse. One worse with 38.
Third worst defence with 74 conceded Sutherland 80 and Burton 81 - both relegated BTW, which tells me D is more important then O!
Giving us the second worst goal differential -35 only even sadsacks ASunderland were better with -28 only Moneyball Burton were worse with -43.
Should be down. Begs the question is Alnwick that good? 59 goals conceded in 39 games?

That's why I'd take that bare minimum and resign Alnwick, Ameobi, Beevers then take punts on new players. Two or three big strikers. Quick CBs. And younger defensive mids who can pass a bit. We need a 10 goal improvement at both ends of the park to be safe.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Think we need two centre mids but yeah, just a new spine!

Yeah exactly. It's like food poisoning bad at both ends and presumably the middle too.

Statistically we SHOULD have been relegated.
Third worst scoring with 39 goals only Burton and Birm were worse. One worse with 38.
Third worst defence with 74 conceded Sutherland 80 and Burton 81 - both relegated BTW, which tells me D is more important then O!
Giving us the second worst goal differential -35 only even sadsacks ASunderland were better with -28 only Moneyball Burton were worse with -43.
Should be down. Begs the question is Alnwick that good? 59 goals conceded in 39 games?

That's why I'd take that bare minimum and resign Alnwick, Ameobi, Beevers then take punts on new players. Two or three big strikers. Quick CBs. And younger defensive mids who can pass a bit. We need a 10 goal improvement at both ends of the park to be safe.

Yeah, the stats show we were very good at maximising resources - not just of players available but also of results. From Christmas to March we scored 10 goals and got 20 points from them: five 1-0 wins, four 1-1 draws and that Norwich 0-0 (plus one goal in five combined defeats).

But then we only scored in two of the next seven, a consolation at Leeds and a point at Barnsley.

I'm very glad we had that run of 20pts in 14 games – it effectively kept us up – but we can't rely on it. This is the trouble with fine margins: if you don't keep doing it, you can very quickly slip from getting by to looking clueless. Owen Coyle found that out. Parky nearly did.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Confirmation, if it were needed, that Erhan Oztumer wants out of Walsall. Club statement: "The club have made numerous attempts to extend Erhun Oztumer's contract over the last 12 months. His representatives have expressed a desire to explore alternative options and, while the club remain open to negotiation, we respect that position."

[Bruce Rioja]

Begs the question is Alnwick that good? 59 goals conceded in 39 games?

Does it? How many of those goals could Alnwick perceivably have done better with?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Begs the question is Alnwick that good? 59 goals conceded in 39 games?

Does it? How many of those goals could Alnwick perceivably have done better with?

Well, that's precisely what expected goals is about (But I can't find any figures for Ben)

[Prufrock]

"Fecking loads the useless c*nt" is the shorter answer

[bristol_Wanderer3]

If we are in the market for a make do and mend centre forward, then Clayton Donaldson has been released by Sheffield United. James Hanson, the big, limited striker mainstay of Parky's teams at Bradford also released by Sheff U. I am hoping he is in the "surely not" category.

[TANGODANCER]

Like it or no, we're not going to get any world-beater players. (in the unlikely event of getting somebody good we'd probably sell them under the current regime) The league positions finished as they did because the teams above us were better than us on constistency. We were consistently found wanting. Nobody argues that losing Madine at a crucial time did us no favours, but he isn't/wasn't Captain Marvel and no one man answer to why we are where we are. We weren't ripped to ribbons by Barrcelona style Championship dazzlers, but by teams who played with guts and took their chances. How many chances did we actually create/get, all season? We seem to keep harping on about striker this and striker that. What about the rest? Last year 15 of our goals came from set pieces via Beevers and Wheater and Moraise's deliveries.

Last Sunday saw us showing fight and people like Vela actually waking up and playing. ( His dashing at the keeper and grabbing the ball to leg it back to the centre circle when Wheater scored was attitude that's been missing) We need a Holden/Mark Davies midfield general (and back ups) and somebody to work the ball in to Ameobi and Alf, not hopeful Big Bertha wallops from the back. Wilbraham (true friend of the crown, Dilly Dilly!) is a local hero because of one header, not a siege mentallity skill set. And let's not forget how many soft goals were scored against us by poor defending. Parky needs to get a grip of that fact. Lots of things guarantee consistent results, but even Nat Lofthouse needed a team around him.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

What we need in order of necessity is:
1. A new owner, one with more money in his back pocket than the present one. But also one who recognises the fact that Investment brings Rewards.
2. A manager who is not limited to the tedious strategy that Parkinson is confined to.
3. After one and two above the world is our fcking oyster...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

If we are in the market for a make do and mend centre forward, then Clayton Donaldson has been released by Sheffield United. James Hanson, the big, limited striker mainstay of Parky's teams at Bradford also released by Sheff U. I am hoping he is in the "surely not" category.

Small correction, Briz: although Donaldson has been released, Hanson (who'd been on loan at Bury) hasn't, he's just been transfer-listed. Full-back Chris Hussey, who had been on loan at Swindon, is the only other released player.

Other players Blades have transfer-listed:

• Manchester-born centre-back Ben Heneghan (6'3", 24) played for Motherwell in the Scottish top flight last season, switching to Sheffield close to last summer's deadline, but only played one game for Blades. Scouting report: https://rokerreport.sbnation.com/2017/8 ... -about-him

• Attacking midfielder Samir Carruthers (25) came through Arsenal's ranks and has played 50-odd tier-two games. Wilder signed him in January 2017.

• Sheffielder George Long (24, 6'4") used to battle with Mark Howard for the Blades goalkeeper spot. They each had long spells in possession of the gloves but it was probably Long's ascendancy that prompted Blades to release Howard. But although Wilder gave him a new contract, Long only played 3 league games in 2016/17 and spent this year on loan at AFC Wimbledon.

• In April 2014 Barnsley-born 5ft8in midfielder Louis Reed was their youngest-ever league player (at 16y257d) but, again, didn't play in 2016/17 and spent 2017/18 at Chesterfield. He turns 21 this July.

• Nathan Thomas is a 5ft 9in left-winger, nearly 24, who joined Blades in May 2017. Currently on loan at Shrewsbury.

• Caolan Lavery is a 5ft11in striker (25), born in Canada but a Norn Iron U21 cap, who went to United from Wednesday (rare than you might think) but only scored 4 in 27 during their promotion season and is loan at play-off contenders Rotherham.

All those are still under contract. Which is not to say Blades will demand much of a fee for them: just that they're still under contract and don't want them any more.

[mullayo]

Like it or no, we're not going to get any world-beater players. (in the unlikely event of getting somebody good we'd probably sell them under the current regime) The league positions finished as they did because the teams above us were better than us on constistency. We were consistently found wanting. Nobody argues that losing Madine at a crucial time did us no favours, but he isn't/wasn't Captain Marvel and no one man answer to why we are where we are. We weren't ripped to ribbons by Barrcelona style Championship dazzlers, but by teams who played with guts and took their chances. How many chances did we actually create/get, all season? We seem to keep harping on about striker this and striker that. What about the rest? Last year 15 of our goals came from set pieces via Beevers and Wheater and Moraise's deliveries.

Last Sunday saw us showing fight and people like Vela actually waking up and playing. ( His dashing at the keeper and grabbing the ball to leg it back to the centre circle when Wheater scored was attitude that's been missing) We need a Holden/Mark Davies midfield general (and back ups) and somebody to work the ball in to Ameobi and Alf, not hopeful Big Bertha wallops from the back. Wilbraham (true friend of the crown, Dilly Dilly!) is a local hero because of one header, not a siege mentallity skill set. And let's not forget how many soft goals were scored against us by poor defending. Parky needs to get a grip of that fact. Lots of things guarantee consistent results, but even Nat Lofthouse needed a team around him.

I thought we were tracking alright until I looked at the actual stats. Total overhaul needed. 10 goal trunaround at both ends to be simply safe.

I looked up our total shots taken 495 (21st) on target per game 3.15 (22nd) on a woeful 10.76 attempts (21st).
We need to sign players that score goals at this level. Midfielders as well as strikers. Goal scoring is a knack some have and some don't. Doesn't matter where they come from in Moneyball: Oztumer, Maddison, etc
Afterall Ameobi for all his Ameobi-ness only got four goals and he was our 3rd best. We're 21st in long shots taken from outside of box.

[mullayo]

Begs the question is Alnwick that good? 59 goals conceded in 39 games?

Does it? How many of those goals could Alnwick perceivably have done better with?

He has a shot save percentage of 67% so I'd say 33% of them. Basically if you get three shots on target one goes in. He passes the eye test but... Can we do better?

The DESPERATE reason I'm casting aspersions on Alnwick is that if some of it's not him then it's ALL the players on the front of him.
Replacing a keeper is easier than a whole backline and midfield!

At least we didn't have Burton's Bywater by far the worst he conceded 75 at one every 52.8 mins. Alnwick was third worst of the starter keepers with one every 58.75 mins.
The second worst only played 26 games Forest's Jordan Smith 56.74 mins. Their other 2 keepers averaged 83.57 and 72 mins.

[mullayo]

An article from The Sun states:

“DAVID McGOLDRICK is set for contract offers from QPR, Bolton and Blackburn.

The Republic of Ireland forward, 30, is out of contract at Ipswich and FIVE clubs are interested in snapping him up on a free.

Blackburn want to bolster their attack with the ex-Nottingham Forest star following promotion to the Championship.

Bolton almost signed him in January in a £500,000 deal but ran out of time on deadline day, with QPR also among the clubs looking at him.”

If Blackburn get him what about Danny Graham on a free? 32 but got 14 goals 8 assists in L1 last year.

[palindromeofbolton]

Not sure if it was made clear at the time, but when we went for McGoldrick on deadline day was the fee the stumbling block, or did we actually get to speak to him and he turned us down?

Michiel Kramer, the lanky Dutch sod we were also trying to bring in as a last minute for Madine in January, is without a club again.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michiel_Kramer

[Prufrock]

Think there were differing levels of desperation on a few of them (Dutch guy being a "feck, anyone will do).

McGoldrick is a very good player and would be a fine signing, but he absolutely will get injured so you'd need another.

[Bruce Rioja]

Begs the question is Alnwick that good? 59 goals conceded in 39 games?

Does it? How many of those goals could Alnwick perceivably have done better with?

He has a shot save percentage of 67% so I'd say 33% of them. Basically if you get three shots on target one goes in. He passes the eye test but... Can we do better?

The DESPERATE reason I'm casting aspersions on Alnwick is that if some of it's not him then it's ALL the players on the front of him.
Replacing a keeper is easier than a whole backline and midfield!

At least we didn't have Burton's Bywater by far the worst he conceded 75 at one every 52.8 mins. Alnwick was third worst of the starter keepers with one every 58.75 mins.
The second worst only played 26 games Forest's Jordan Smith 56.74 mins. Their other 2 keepers averaged 83.57 and 72 mins.

Not one bit of that means Alnwick's a poor keeper. He saved us more points than he cost us by a very long straw. A goal going in does not automatically equal a shortcoming on the part of the keeper.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Begs the question is Alnwick that good? 59 goals conceded in 39 games?

Does it? How many of those goals could Alnwick perceivably have done better with?

He has a shot save percentage of 67% so I'd say 33% of them. Basically if you get three shots on target one goes in. He passes the eye test but... Can we do better?
At least we didn't have Burton's Bywater by far the worst he conceded 75 at one every 52.8 mins. Alnwick was third worst of the starter keepers with one every 58.75 mins.
The second worst only played 26 games Forest's Jordan Smith 56.74 mins. Their other 2 keepers averaged 83.57 and 72 mins.

Not one bit of that means Alnwick's a poor keeper. He saved us more points than he cost us by a very long straw. A goal going in does not automatically equal a shortcoming on the part of the keeper.

I've argued with Bruce before on this (or rather on Rachubka). But this time I'm on his side - using the expected goals metric that some folk hate, but is useful in this kind of thing because it allows for the variety of goals that can (or indeed should) be scored.

For instance, a hypothetical. If we draw 0-0 with Burton, but the only efforts Bywater has to deal with are three 40-yard cross-come-shots that are on target but he can throw his hat on, while Burton have two penalties and Alnwick saves them both, who's had the better game? Shots on target would say Bywater, expected goals would say Alnwick.

It's a somewhat flawed statistic in that someone has to judge the likelihood of scoring. But it's more thoughtful than shots on target or goals conceded. Pick Buffon for Burton and he'll ship 50 goals.

Anyway, from hypotheticals to real-world numbers. Again I turn to Ben "experimental361" Mayhew, who does this for a living. In Ben's graph of expected goals (at both ends) over the course of the season, note how high we are on the Y axis (defence): we "should" have conceded around 1.62 goals per game, the worst in the division, worse than Reading and Burton.

2017-18-ch-eg.png (80.8 KiB) Viewed 6991 times

1.62 per game x 46 is 74.52; we actually conceded 74, so it's pretty much as you'd expect. Burton's 1.5 multiplied by 46 is 69, when they actually conceded 81; Bywater, who started 44 of their 46 league games, needs to cop some blame for that. Reading's 1.6 x is 73.6 and they conceded 70, so their GKs (Vito Mannone started 41) saved them a few times.

But the hats have to go off to Ipswich. They had the fourth-highest concession rate and "should" have conceded around 1.46 per game, or 67.16 over the season; they actually conceded 60, so they owe a few pints to Bartosz Bialkowski (who started 45).

On the other hand, Sunderland's goalkeepers were gash: 1.36 per game x46 = 62.56, but they conceded 80 – a very bad reflection on some or other combination of Robbin Ruitter (20 starts), Jason Steele (15) and Lee Camp (11). They should have conceded marginally fewer than Leeds, whose 1.37 per game x 46 = 63.2; Leeds did in fact concede 64 so that's more or less what you'd expect.

TL,DR: Alnwick not to blame. My thoughts are that if he's happy to stay, goalkeeper is way down the list of priorities.

[TANGODANCER]

I can think of a few top-class saves that, but for being such, would have us looking up the hill already.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I can think of a few top-class saves that, but for being such, would have us looking up the hill already.

I couldn't off the top of my head but considering how narrow our wins were - we only won two games by two clear goals, and in one of those the second goal came in the 88th minute - there surely must have been.