Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

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Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by mullayo » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:47 am

Who's going down if not us?
It's early obviously but this season looks tougher than last.

Last season, Sunderland imploded, Burton and Barnsley didn't really belong. And we scraped through by the skin of our teeth.
Next season only Rotherham look like a small fish. Our Lancashire rivals Wigan and Blackburn, like us, have recent Premier pedigree - Blackburn have actually won it.

Out of Prem League relegated West Bromich, Stoke, Swansea none of them are likely to nosedive out the bottom.So they effectively replace last season's (actual by points) top 3 teams: Wolves, Cardiff and Fulham

Out of the incoming, Wigan and Blackburn each had 4 players to the League One Team of the Year.

Wigan: defenders Dan Burn and Nathan Byrne, plus forwards Nick Powell and Will Grigg in the side.

Blackburn: Backs Charlie Mulgrew and Amari'i Bell, midfielder Bradley Dack and striker Danny Graham.

Bolton have three: Wheater, Beevers and Oztumer (twice)

So who was in the bottom tier with us (43 points) last year Reading (44), Birmingham (46), Hull (49). Next tier includes Nottingham Forest (53), QPR (56), Sheffield Wednesday (57) all 'big clubs' like Birminghm.

It would appear our best bet to finish fourth (from the bottom) again would be relying on Rotherham, Reading and Hull being worse than our hastily assembled licorice all-sorts squad.
What do you think?
Any other relegation contenders?
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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by dave the minion » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:06 am

I reckon Stoke could be the next Sunderland. Rotherham will struggle and I can see Blackburn finding it tough again. Add into the mix Hull, Reading, Birmingham, Forest - who all need to strengthen, and us going down absolutely isn't a foregone conclusion....
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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by GhostoftheBok » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:27 am

Impossible to say at this stage of the summer. I don't think the aim is to finish fourth from bottom, although I expect to hear that sort of thing from the club from time to time. I think they'll look at the struggles of some in the division and believe they can do enough business to stay reasonably safe. Until we're further along I've no clue how we'll do - but I do think it's possible we could be more comfortable than people expect.

This is a very hard division to get out of in either direction. You have to do really well to go up, but you have to be awful to go down. I imagine Ken'll fancy he can get enough in to not be part of that awful group. Being merely poor gets you lower-mid-table. We were pretty shocking last season, in large parts, yet we still somehow stayed up.

Leeds and Birmingham has some issues that could see them make a slow start. Derby have taken a big gamble on Lampard and that could go either way. Aston Villa's fire sale could be catastrophic for them, as all the many millions they will rake in look set to go on debt payments. There's plenty of grist for the mill.

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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by truewhite15 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:48 am

Isn't this all a bit premature?

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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by mullayo » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:38 am

truewhite15 wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:48 am
Isn't this all a bit premature?
Yes, it says so up top.

However, I've been wholly focussed on our comings and mainly goings then it occurred to me that we need to not only improve for its own sake but to a level that's more than three other teams...

Then I started wondering who they would be. Rotterham (no-one in team of the year) stood out like a sore thumb but Blackburn and Wigan have pedigree, more money than us and recognised players in key positions.

Blackburn have a proven goalscorer Danny Graham as do Wigan (14 goals) with forwards Nick Powell (15 ) and Will Grigg (19) while at the other end defenders Dan Burn and Nathan Byrne made the League One team.

For Blackburn, centre-back Charlie Mulgrew and left-back Amari'i Bell and midfielder Bradley Dack all made the team too.

The local derbies are probably six-pointers this year.

Does Jason Lowe and Ozmidget make us better than last year MINUS Madine, Ameobi, Antonee Robinson?
At the mo I'd say no...
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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:44 am

mullayo wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:38 am
Does Jason Lowe and Ozmidget make us better than last year MINUS Madine, Ameobi, Antonee Robinson?
At the mo I'd say no...
Well, if we're going to use hypophora...

Are we better having hired those two and released 20 players? No.
Is it a bit early to say? Yes.
Should we speculate wildly anyway? Might as well, for summer is long.

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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by bristol_Wanderer3 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:51 pm

Way, way too early to have any real idea. As DSB says, no harm in having some fun in hypothesizing, after all it is going to be the most important question eventually.

For me based on quality of manager, stability of club, quality of team, and potential (or not) to sign quality players, I would look to Rotherham, Blackburn and Hull to keep us out of the bottom three. I am also keeping an eye on Norwich, Reading, QPR, Birmingham, Sheffield Wednesday, Villa and Derby. All of those have potential financial problems that could create that combination of club in decline+low morale+disjointed team+manager who struggles under the pressure, even if they have some decent players. It will be interesting to see what kind of squad these clubs end up with come August.

Everyone else will be looking to us to keep them out of the bottom three with some justification. We need to sign about 11 more players on probably the smallest budget in the league. It is a huge challenge for Phil/Ken. Still the Oztumer signing gives me hope...

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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by TANGODANCER » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:59 pm

So, none of you think we'll win the league then? Fainhearts.. ae:)

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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by Abdoulaye's Twin » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:15 pm

Can't we just enjoy a few weeks of summer before the hand wringing starts? We've signed a solid midfielder and some creativity that looks a worthwhile punt given our lack of funds. A promising start, but far too early to tell anything until ourselves and competitors shape their squads more.

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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by mullayo » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:56 pm

Abdoulaye's Twin wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:15 pm
Can't we just enjoy a few weeks of summer before the hand wringing starts? We've signed a solid midfielder and some creativity that looks a worthwhile punt given our lack of funds. A promising start, but far too early to tell anything until ourselves and competitors shape their squads more.
I doubt the other squads will be in total overhaul mode like we are. Fine tuning for most of them not 20 out. Although IMHO we were right to release all the ones we did (assuming Kirchoff is crocked).
The two signings I like but I think we'll pay only 4 or 5 players of that ilk, then fill the other squad spots with cheap punts on potential.
It'll probably come down to the calibre of the loanees we get.
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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by mullayo » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:58 pm

I notice no-one's mentioned Reading and they were only one point above us?
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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:34 pm

mullayo wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:58 pm
I notice no-one's mentioned Reading and they were only one point above us?
Mentioned 'em 10 days ago
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=26543#p1057490
Reading are skint and need a reboot after one season of overachieving and one of being consistently awful, which didn't improve once they got the somewhat confrontational Clement in charge. It's never a surprise when he leaves a club.

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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by Bruce Rioja » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:55 pm

I opened this thread expecting it to be one of those 'bit of fun' ones. :shock:
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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by HMX » Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:06 pm

mullayo wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:38 am
Blackburn have a proven goalscorer Danny Graham as do Wigan (14 goals) with forwards Nick Powell (15 ) and Will Grigg (19) while at the other end defenders Dan Burn and Nathan Byrne made the League One team.
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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by officer_dibble » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:22 pm

This years implosions contenders? Villa? Hull?

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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by Prufrock » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:35 pm

Forest have spent £13m on one player :shock:
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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by jmjhb » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:41 pm

He's done well against actual children but not sure he can do it on a cold January night at Rotherham :D

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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by TANGODANCER » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:43 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:35 pm
Forest have spent £13m on one player :shock
Well be lucky if we spend a quarter of that on the whole team for the season. Sort of explains why we're already looking up the mountain from a very low base camp.
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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by Spartan2 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:55 pm

Nothing to fear from Wigan and Blackburn, they were down there for a reason, if Grigg was a force to be reckoned with he wouldn't be playing for Wigan. The championship is petty tight IMO, consistency and organisation can get you into the playoffs, just look at Millwall, they're shit yet they did really well. Even us, without our crap start, without losing Madine we most probably would have been mid table, and we were even shitter.

We'll have an almost entirely new team, I've no idea where we'll finish, maybe we can do a Millwall, maybe we'll sign some quality, but let's not build up the quality of the league too much.

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Re: Who's going down to League One in 2019? Bolton?

Post by Prufrock » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:22 am

So Bielsa to Leeds is happening. Utterly mad, tremendous stuff.

That could go either way. As big a fan as I am, hopefully badly. Presumably they'll spend big.

In terms of investment for us, if we hang around for a couple of years while everyone else goes for it, we could be attractive as one of the few teams not hamstrung cutting costs for FFP having gone for it and failed! Like hanging back at a buffet until they start to top things up with fresh warm food.
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