Red Hats and One-eyed Snakes - the ups and downs of new management.

[BWFC_Insane]

2) The 12 points is inconsequential to the cost of bringing out of Admin. It costs no more nor less with or without a points deduction.

But surely it materially affects our chances of re-promotion and thus quite possibly our desirability to potential buyers.

It does materially affect our chances of re-promotion. I'm not at all convinced that any potential buyers aren't aware of what they're letting themselves in for. Sorting out the cost base to get us to a more sustainable model will almost certainly be at the forefront.

Everyone expecting us to bounce back up with this squad then?

What business sense would buying us to reduce costs to such a level we break even or close to in league 1/2 be? Ken tried to make us more sustainable....

In reducing the cost base you also potentially lose income. What will our crowds be when new owners say "we're going to recruit even cheaper players than Ken did and cut our cloth according to the bottom 2 leagues"?

[Jim_McDonuts]

. What will our crowds be when new owners say "we're going to recruit even cheaper players than Ken did and cut our cloth according to the bottom 2 leagues"?

Isn't the answer to that question what's just happened anyway?
Shirley this is what we've been doing last 2 seasons (this one esp.).

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

. What will our crowds be when new owners say "we're going to recruit even cheaper players than Ken did and cut our cloth according to the bottom 2 leagues"?

Isn't the answer to that question what's just happened anyway?
Shirley this is what we've been doing last 2 seasons (this one esp.).

Ken has loudly complained that we've wasted money on players we haven't picked, and I think at one point used his bully-pulpit to deny we had one of the lowest wage bills in the division.

On crowds, it will be interesting. Traditionally our crowds have held up reasonably well the season after relegation (partly because traditionally we've been quite good). If we stay down they tend to drift again. Much depends on owner, manager, players, pies &c.

[BWFC_Insane]

. What will our crowds be when new owners say "we're going to recruit even cheaper players than Ken did and cut our cloth according to the bottom 2 leagues"?

Isn't the answer to that question what's just happened anyway?
Shirley this is what we've been doing last 2 seasons (this one esp.).

We've recruited more than we can afford. To cut costs you'll also have to cut standards further.

[Worthy4England]

I know all buyers (bar bonkpots) will be "aware of what they're letting themselves in for". What I'm saying is that the actuarial chances of the project "succeeding" financially will be severely limited by us starting on -12. That will surely be part of said "awareness", and could thus drive some away. It might be a price worth paying - to rid ourselves of Anderson and dreamers like Bassini - but I can't see it being irrelevant.

Mayhap I picked my words injudiciously. Surely the chances of project succeeding or failing is reliant on where you land your success/failure criteria and what the objectives of said "project" are?

You could land year 1 as "stay up, despite penalty" - there's a budget for that...or you could land year 1 as invest against a likely Revenue for year 2, in League 2, because relegation looks likely - there's a lower budget for that, or you could use the Bassini "Prem in 3 years" approach which pretty much banks you on needing to go straight back up and there's likely a higher budget for that.

Point is, they're all different projects...they could all succeed or fail financially. But if you went for the Bassini, and actually got relegated because of the penalty, you're running the wrong project and probably in the shit again - despite having been through Admin!

It would be good to think we could get on a sustainable footing (which Ken proclaimed we were planning to do, but somehow seems to have spectacularly missed it). I mean surely he could've spotted we didn't have a spare £1m in the bank for Doidge - maybe he gambled on selling someone - can't have been a something, coz he's told us the something's are already mortgaged. I'd rather us be mid-table in L1 and not in the shit every week and build from there, than pressing for promotion, then finding out we can't afford to pay the team for the play-offs...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I know all buyers (bar bonkpots) will be "aware of what they're letting themselves in for". What I'm saying is that the actuarial chances of the project "succeeding" financially will be severely limited by us starting on -12. That will surely be part of said "awareness", and could thus drive some away. It might be a price worth paying - to rid ourselves of Anderson and dreamers like Bassini - but I can't see it being irrelevant.

Mayhap I picked my words injudiciously. Surely the chances of project succeeding or failing is reliant on where you land your success/failure criteria and what the objectives of said "project" are?

You could land year 1 as "stay up, despite penalty" - there's a budget for that...or you could land year 1 as invest against a likely Revenue for year 2, in League 2, because relegation looks likely - there's a lower budget for that, or you could use the Bassini "Prem in 3 years" approach which pretty much banks you on needing to go straight back up and there's likely a higher budget for that.

Point is, they're all different projects...they could all succeed or fail financially. But if you went for the Bassini, and actually got relegated because of the penalty, you're running the wrong project and probably in the shit again - despite having been through Admin!

It would be good to think we could get on a sustainable footing (which Ken proclaimed we were planning to do, but somehow seems to have spectacularly missed it). I mean surely he could've spotted we didn't have a spare £1m in the bank for Doidge - maybe he gambled on selling someone - can't have been a something, coz he's told us the something's are already mortgaged. I'd rather us be mid-table in L1 and not in the shit every week and build from there, than pressing for promotion, then finding out we can't afford to pay the team for the play-offs...

Yep to all that. I just can't get away from the idea that a 12-point handicap simply has to affect the project objectives. If they were season-one automatic promotion, do they become a risky play-off punt? If they were stability, do they simply become avoiding relegation?

AFAIK only one team (Bournemouth) has been promoted with a 12-point deficit. Right now in League One, with two games left, third-placed Portsmouth are on 87pts but 4pts behind the two teams in the automatic promotion slots, so it's likely Pompey will get 90+ points and still have to face the play-offs. At that pace, starting at -12 we'd have to get 105-110pts for automatic promotion. Reading's 106pts is the all-time record. And we though Gartside and Coyle were optimists for targeting 2ppg.

More prosaically/realistically, 12pts is the difference between 7th-placed Peterborough and 14th-placed Rochdale, or between 12th-placed Fleetwood and drop-zone Walsall. It's a purposefully big chunk of points. It's even bigger than the 10 points earned by Gary Madine's goals last season...

[Worthy4England]

2) The 12 points is inconsequential to the cost of bringing out of Admin. It costs no more nor less with or without a points deduction.

But surely it materially affects our chances of re-promotion and thus quite possibly our desirability to potential buyers.

It does materially affect our chances of re-promotion. I'm not at all convinced that any potential buyers aren't aware of what they're letting themselves in for. Sorting out the cost base to get us to a more sustainable model will almost certainly be at the forefront.

Everyone expecting us to bounce back up with this squad then?

What business sense would buying us to reduce costs to such a level we break even or close to in league 1/2 be? Ken tried to make us more sustainable....

In reducing the cost base you also potentially lose income. What will our crowds be when new owners say "we're going to recruit even cheaper players than Ken did and cut our cloth according to the bottom 2 leagues"?

What business sense, buys a football club? Either it's there to as a minimum break even (owner has no money to invest) or it's there to make a loss (owner has money and is willing to invest). If we don't have option 2 then you have to do option 1 regardless of how that is perceived by the fans...because if you don't, you go into Admin/Liquidation which are both options you're telling me we can't do.

[BWFC_Insane]

I know all buyers (bar bonkpots) will be "aware of what they're letting themselves in for". What I'm saying is that the actuarial chances of the project "succeeding" financially will be severely limited by us starting on -12. That will surely be part of said "awareness", and could thus drive some away. It might be a price worth paying - to rid ourselves of Anderson and dreamers like Bassini - but I can't see it being irrelevant.

Mayhap I picked my words injudiciously. Surely the chances of project succeeding or failing is reliant on where you land your success/failure criteria and what the objectives of said "project" are?

You could land year 1 as "stay up, despite penalty" - there's a budget for that...or you could land year 1 as invest against a likely Revenue for year 2, in League 2, because relegation looks likely - there's a lower budget for that, or you could use the Bassini "Prem in 3 years" approach which pretty much banks you on needing to go straight back up and there's likely a higher budget for that.

Point is, they're all different projects...they could all succeed or fail financially. But if you went for the Bassini, and actually got relegated because of the penalty, you're running the wrong project and probably in the shit again - despite having been through Admin!

It would be good to think we could get on a sustainable footing (which Ken proclaimed we were planning to do, but somehow seems to have spectacularly missed it). I mean surely he could've spotted we didn't have a spare £1m in the bank for Doidge - maybe he gambled on selling someone - can't have been a something, coz he's told us the something's are already mortgaged. I'd rather us be mid-table in L1 and not in the shit every week and build from there, than pressing for promotion, then finding out we can't afford to pay the team for the play-offs...

Lets say Doidge had come off and we were mid table championship. I bet Ken would have walked away with a few million and found someone to pickup the Doidge tab and other bills.

Remember at the time we had 10 points after a great start....

Honestly think he hoped/expected to sell us in the summer but then when that didn't happen thought he'd definitely do it during the season after a modest investment and with what looked like a lower mid half side at that point in time.

[Jim_McDonuts]

(abso not a comment on the above posts)

Sorry, just bit bored.

(acc, ac, acell, accellerando poco-acc)
|:Wan der rers, wanderers, wanderers. (2,3)
Wanderers, wanderers, wanderer-ers,
Wanderers, wanderers, wandeRers, (2,3)
WANDer-erERS, WAN DER ERS (2):|
(poco rit, ritern ritmo ritern-ello)
(ad infinitum)

numbers in brackets count in head, song starts on beat 4,
tempo markings for lines 1 and 4 on brackets above and below

'Yes, we sang songs' (collectively, it was awesome).

Above documentation for future historians attempting to piece together what the hell happened at this old and allegedly (in)famous club, now a mysterious (black)hole in the ground, with all collective memory terminally banished -- by order EFL & 'KinellKen's bookies.

You know I'd never noticed that there's a half bar (2 beats) at the end of the whole phrase. But yes, of course, adds to the songs circular (iterative) structure.

(Manny Rd full musicological analysis forthcoming - no really, honestly, it's no bother:)

COYW

[bristol_Wanderer3]

^^ Sooo many questions:

- Is Bassini proving proof of funds to get the immediate issues sorted such as overdue wages (2 months of them from tomorrow) and costs to get the game against Brentford on, or funds to pay off all unsecured creditors, or funds for say a 3 year plan? Might be the difference between say £3m or £20m or £50m.
- Where is the money coming from?
- Does Bassini have Michael James and Brett Warburton approval?
- What role if any would KA and/or Paul Aldridge play going forward?
- Do Moonshift still have a charge against the shares that Bassini will be acquiring if it goes through?

Nixon is indicating there is at least one genuine mystery buyer waiting to pounce if Bassini doesn't get approval.

Imho, Anderson wants to sell to Bassini at all costs. Another buyer is bad for him.

For the sake of BWFC I am crossing everything in the hope that Bassini does not get approval. Imho he seems a gullible clown who doesn't have the slightest clue what "getting this club on the right track again" means. If he manages to get Michael James out of the picture there would be no safety nets when another ownership crisis inevitably arises in a few months. Administration or any other owner apart from KA would be better.

Not sure I agree. As has already been established the costs to get us out of admin are considerable. At least £5M to KA plus whatever can be agreed with other secured creditors plus 25% of unsecured creditors. And of course all players and any clubs owed something will need paying. Its likely £15M potentially as high as £20M.

For a league one club starting on -12. That is no given that someone will buy us from it - let alone someone with the ability to lost that money up front and then spend another 5M or so to keep us in league one next season.

Then you've got to try and invest to get us out. Get us to a stable championship place...thats a hell of a lot of money and no guarantees.

I'm unconvinced that admin makes anything better other than the true costs will be easier to determine and a deal might be a little easier without Ken. But the other side is Ken is far less likely to play ball in that position and so he will want paying off in full immediately.

I'm very unconvinced by admin being a magic option at all.

Bassini either has the money or he doesn't. If he doesn't its immaterial - if he does then that is a better result inspite of him clearly being, lets say, different....

As for another owner - inspite of Nixon's proclamations which I'm sure have some basis to them - we're out of time for another solvent sale. We need to fulfill fixtures which means an injection of cash is needed NOW. A new bidder even if they move at lightspeed cannot do this in time UNLESS they loan the money to Ken. Would you do that?

To me it is simple: Anderson is an entity that is aggressively killing us. Bassini would represent survival without any further medical care. We die within months.

Admin is a horrible solution but we have a chance to survive. There does seem to be interest in buying us from admin. A sale to a wealthy mystery new buyer represents the best recuperation and medical care possible and we could running marathons again in a few years.

Interesting that Nixon is suggesting that if Bassini fails then KA would prefer admin rather than a straight sale, and in one tweet he suggests the reason for that is what KA "would avoid" by going into admin. I suspect this refers to the hidden debt/factoring black hole found by Basran's forensic accountants, and/or the money owed to Moonshift.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

So it’s yet another day of checking your phone or work desktop browser.

My productivity level took a dip yesterday.

Any yoof that used to attend Eric's's I'd estimate their productivity level to be 2 or 3% at best...

[Harry Genshaw]

Two upsides to all this scary speculation;

1) I'd be delighted if come August we're in the 3rd division starting on minus 12 points. Anything above that is a bonus and

2) I haven't given Brexit a 2nd thought whilst all this has been going on

[BWFC_Insane]

^^ Sooo many questions:

- Is Bassini proving proof of funds to get the immediate issues sorted such as overdue wages (2 months of them from tomorrow) and costs to get the game against Brentford on, or funds to pay off all unsecured creditors, or funds for say a 3 year plan? Might be the difference between say £3m or £20m or £50m.
- Where is the money coming from?
- Does Bassini have Michael James and Brett Warburton approval?
- What role if any would KA and/or Paul Aldridge play going forward?
- Do Moonshift still have a charge against the shares that Bassini will be acquiring if it goes through?

Nixon is indicating there is at least one genuine mystery buyer waiting to pounce if Bassini doesn't get approval.

Imho, Anderson wants to sell to Bassini at all costs. Another buyer is bad for him.

For the sake of BWFC I am crossing everything in the hope that Bassini does not get approval. Imho he seems a gullible clown who doesn't have the slightest clue what "getting this club on the right track again" means. If he manages to get Michael James out of the picture there would be no safety nets when another ownership crisis inevitably arises in a few months. Administration or any other owner apart from KA would be better.

Not sure I agree. As has already been established the costs to get us out of admin are considerable. At least £5M to KA plus whatever can be agreed with other secured creditors plus 25% of unsecured creditors. And of course all players and any clubs owed something will need paying. Its likely £15M potentially as high as £20M.

For a league one club starting on -12. That is no given that someone will buy us from it - let alone someone with the ability to lost that money up front and then spend another 5M or so to keep us in league one next season.

Then you've got to try and invest to get us out. Get us to a stable championship place...thats a hell of a lot of money and no guarantees.

I'm unconvinced that admin makes anything better other than the true costs will be easier to determine and a deal might be a little easier without Ken. But the other side is Ken is far less likely to play ball in that position and so he will want paying off in full immediately.

I'm very unconvinced by admin being a magic option at all.

Bassini either has the money or he doesn't. If he doesn't its immaterial - if he does then that is a better result inspite of him clearly being, lets say, different....

As for another owner - inspite of Nixon's proclamations which I'm sure have some basis to them - we're out of time for another solvent sale. We need to fulfill fixtures which means an injection of cash is needed NOW. A new bidder even if they move at lightspeed cannot do this in time UNLESS they loan the money to Ken. Would you do that?

To me it is simple: Anderson is an entity that is aggressively killing us. Bassini would represent survival without any further medical care. We die within months.

Admin is a horrible solution but we have a chance to survive. There does seem to be interest in buying us from admin. A sale to a wealthy mystery new buyer represents the best recuperation and medical care possible and we could running marathons again in a few years.

Interesting that Nixon is suggesting that if Bassini fails then KA would prefer admin rather than a straight sale, and in one tweet he suggests the reason for that is what KA "would avoid" by going into admin. I suspect this refers to the hidden debt/factoring black hole found by Basran's forensic accountants, and/or the money owed to Moonshift.

Please just stop with this. Its from the already discredited Howard...its nonsense.

The reason Ken wants admin is because there is no time for another sale - he risks the club being devalued by further sanctions from the EFL (given games need re-arranging by Thursday or else) potentially even expulsion and/or liquidation by the court.

Ken is more open to scrutiny in admin than he is with a sale into which he can simply add an NDA as part of any agreement.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

It's very striking how the images of Laurence Bassini, Ken Anderson and Shaun Harvey all morph into the same person. Football Borg.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

^^ Sooo many questions:

- Is Bassini proving proof of funds to get the immediate issues sorted such as overdue wages (2 months of them from tomorrow) and costs to get the game against Brentford on, or funds to pay off all unsecured creditors, or funds for say a 3 year plan? Might be the difference between say £3m or £20m or £50m.
- Where is the money coming from?
- Does Bassini have Michael James and Brett Warburton approval?
- What role if any would KA and/or Paul Aldridge play going forward?
- Do Moonshift still have a charge against the shares that Bassini will be acquiring if it goes through?

Nixon is indicating there is at least one genuine mystery buyer waiting to pounce if Bassini doesn't get approval.

Imho, Anderson wants to sell to Bassini at all costs. Another buyer is bad for him.

For the sake of BWFC I am crossing everything in the hope that Bassini does not get approval. Imho he seems a gullible clown who doesn't have the slightest clue what "getting this club on the right track again" means. If he manages to get Michael James out of the picture there would be no safety nets when another ownership crisis inevitably arises in a few months. Administration or any other owner apart from KA would be better.

Not sure I agree. As has already been established the costs to get us out of admin are considerable. At least £5M to KA plus whatever can be agreed with other secured creditors plus 25% of unsecured creditors. And of course all players and any clubs owed something will need paying. Its likely £15M potentially as high as £20M.

For a league one club starting on -12. That is no given that someone will buy us from it - let alone someone with the ability to lost that money up front and then spend another 5M or so to keep us in league one next season.

Then you've got to try and invest to get us out. Get us to a stable championship place...thats a hell of a lot of money and no guarantees.

I'm unconvinced that admin makes anything better other than the true costs will be easier to determine and a deal might be a little easier without Ken. But the other side is Ken is far less likely to play ball in that position and so he will want paying off in full immediately.

I'm very unconvinced by admin being a magic option at all.

Bassini either has the money or he doesn't. If he doesn't its immaterial - if he does then that is a better result inspite of him clearly being, lets say, different....

As for another owner - inspite of Nixon's proclamations which I'm sure have some basis to them - we're out of time for another solvent sale. We need to fulfill fixtures which means an injection of cash is needed NOW. A new bidder even if they move at lightspeed cannot do this in time UNLESS they loan the money to Ken. Would you do that?

To me it is simple: Anderson is an entity that is aggressively killing us. Bassini would represent survival without any further medical care. We die within months.

Admin is a horrible solution but we have a chance to survive. There does seem to be interest in buying us from admin. A sale to a wealthy mystery new buyer represents the best recuperation and medical care possible and we could running marathons again in a few years.

Interesting that Nixon is suggesting that if Bassini fails then KA would prefer admin rather than a straight sale, and in one tweet he suggests the reason for that is what KA "would avoid" by going into admin. I suspect this refers to the hidden debt/factoring black hole found by Basran's forensic accountants, and/or the money owed to Moonshift.

Please just stop with this. Its from the already discredited Howard...its nonsense.

The reason Ken wants admin is because there is no time for another sale - he risks the club being devalued by further sanctions from the EFL (given games need re-arranging by Thursday or else) potentially even expulsion and/or liquidation by the court.

Ken is more open to scrutiny in admin than he is with a sale into which he can simply add an NDA as part of any agreement.

You need to shut your gob too. You know no more than anybody else.

(...unless of course you are Ken).

[Jim_McDonuts]

Speaking of discredited-Howie...

For those able to access WW - Did the admins ever fess-up re what 'proof' of his involvement he/she showed them?

[bristol_Wanderer3]

Please just stop with this. Its from the already discredited Howard...its nonsense.

The reason Ken wants admin is because there is no time for another sale - he risks the club being devalued by further sanctions from the EFL (given games need re-arranging by Thursday or else) potentially even expulsion and/or liquidation by the court.

Ken is more open to scrutiny in admin than he is with a sale into which he can simply add an NDA as part of any agreement.

John Galt on t'other site said after forensic accounting the debt is far higher than first thought. The BEN suggested Basran had found over £10m worth of additional debt, and even though he mentioned some possibilities of what it might be, that would only account for a fraction of it. Howard did go on about it, there have been a lot of rumblings about Ken's use of Inner Circle and unusual financial methods for some time. It could all be rubbish, but personally I don't think it is. Everything that has happened supports it. Seemingly reputable buyers do DD and pull out, Bassini gets sold a 94.5% shareholding without having done DD or any plan or any evidence of money. Lots of statements out there suggesting there is interest but no one wants to deal with Ken.

Nixon is suggesting that Ken might force admin against the wishes of new mystery buyers who would want to avoid admin...

[tweet] https://twitter.com/reluctantnicko/stat ... 2116723712 [/tweet]

[BWFC_Insane]

Please just stop with this. Its from the already discredited Howard...its nonsense.

The reason Ken wants admin is because there is no time for another sale - he risks the club being devalued by further sanctions from the EFL (given games need re-arranging by Thursday or else) potentially even expulsion and/or liquidation by the court.

Ken is more open to scrutiny in admin than he is with a sale into which he can simply add an NDA as part of any agreement.

John Galt on t'other site said after forensic accounting the debt is far higher than first thought. The BEN suggested Basran had found over £10m worth of additional debt, and even though he mentioned some possibilities of what it might be, that would only account for a fraction of it. Howard did go on about it, there have been a lot of rumblings about Ken's use of Inner Circle and unusual financial methods for some time. It could all be rubbish, but personally I don't think it is. Everything that has happened supports it. Seemingly reputable buyers do DD and pull out, Bassini gets sold a 94.5% shareholding without having done DD or any plan or any evidence of money. Lots of statements out there suggesting there is interest but no one wants to deal with Ken.

Nixon is suggesting that Ken might force admin against the wishes of new mystery buyers who would want to avoid admin...

[tweet] https://twitter.com/reluctantnicko/stat ... 2116723712 [/tweet]

Oh good. Another random poster on a forum saying some stuff is evidence of something.

Same poster said Bassini was great and had extensive backing. Which bit of his are you going to pick up on?

Nixon says a lot - I think he's reliable - but he's a football reporter - his understanding of business is worse than mine. Some of the unrealistic things he says are too obvious.

[Worthy4England]

Lets say Doidge had come off and we were mid table championship. I bet Ken would have walked away with a few million and found someone to pickup the Doidge tab and other bills.

Remember at the time we had 10 points after a great start....

Honestly think he hoped/expected to sell us in the summer but then when that didn't happen thought he'd definitely do it during the season after a modest investment and with what looked like a lower mid half side at that point in time.

You seem to be advocating that a shit or bust gamble is fine? I don't disagree that what you suggest is probably what he was hoping...That somehow the "magic formula" had been found...

As an aside - I'd want a forensic accountant doing the books too. For no other reason than it makes good sense.

[BWFC_Insane]

Lets say Doidge had come off and we were mid table championship. I bet Ken would have walked away with a few million and found someone to pickup the Doidge tab and other bills.

Remember at the time we had 10 points after a great start....

Honestly think he hoped/expected to sell us in the summer but then when that didn't happen thought he'd definitely do it during the season after a modest investment and with what looked like a lower mid half side at that point in time.

You seem to be advocating that a shit or bust gamble is fine? I don't disagree that what you suggest is probably what he was hoping...That somehow the "magic formula" had been found...

As an aside - I'd want a forensic accountant doing the books too. For no other reason than it makes good sense.

I'm not suggesting its fine.
I'm suggesting it is how Ken looked at it.

I'll also suggest that if someone comes in and says "our ambition is to run a league one club" within 6 months there will be huge discontent amongst the supporters. All those who say "I want a sustainably run club" will be saying "I'm not going till owner X leaves".

Modern football fans have no patience at all. Zero. Zilch. Nada.