So when will the bubble burst?

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So when will the bubble burst?

Post by TANGODANCER » Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:09 pm

Just a thought/meander or two: With ourselves as a shining example of how quickly it can all go through the trapdoor, how long can it be before the whole football bubble bursts? How did we, Bolton Wanderers, ever manage to be two-hundred million pounds in debt and fool ourselves it would all be okay? Bang, suddenly we're not Premier, Even Championship level, and broke in the bargain. Okay, we've been there before, but not at the cash casino that's League football today. We surely wouldn't be the only club in trouble if all the beans were raked in and the financial chess board got swept clean? Tangled web doesn't begin to describe it. It all comes into focus reading about the sheer arrogance of the game's top earners and their never-ending quest for more (they claim trophies is the motivation, but would they say the same if/when the wage levels suddenly adopted a sense of reality?) and the whole circus that is today's football got a massive shake up? We're living in a world that's ever changing, and football won't be exempt when the big winds start to blow. Sport to business has been a slow progress but its now a complete one. Real estate is the "real" name of the game and there are already few, if any, loyalties left except in lower divisions. Maybe we're actually the lucky ones to be stepping back from it all by going down a division. "Tough at the top" was never truer a description.

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Re: So when will the bubble burst?

Post by Athertonian » Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:33 pm

I would suspect that, the majority of Championship clubs are well in debt because of their pursuance of the promise land. I always said should one club go under many would follow.

Sky seem to be one of the reasons why clubs survive, should Sky ever become troubled financially we could say majority of the prem clubs would suffer.

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Re: So when will the bubble burst?

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:40 pm

Athertonian wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:33 pm
I would suspect that, the majority of Championship clubs are well in debt because of their pursuance of the promise land. I always said should one club go under many would follow.

Sky seem to be one of the reasons why clubs survive, should Sky ever become troubled financially we could say majority of the prem clubs would suffer.
Comcast, the new US owners of Sky have just announced their first quarter underlying profit has fallen by 17% over last year.
They specifically blamed costs in relation to contracts in European football rights.
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Re: So when will the bubble burst?

Post by Athertonian » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:05 pm

After reading the latest, Bolton could be that first club in modern times to go bang. The mixed reports we receive appears that no one actually knows precisely what the current situation is.
I don't know what the consequences would be should Bolton not complete their season fixtures. Accrington Stanley encountered similar where they couldn't fulfil their fixtures subsequently going to the wall. Sincerely hope we don't see our club folding, it may well happen yet.

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Re: So when will the bubble burst?

Post by DJBlu » Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:53 pm

Take the TV money away and the game implodes. Trouble is the Premier League will rinse Sky as they know their whole platform depends on it. It really does make me laugh how the government thinks this monopoly on the game is acceptable.

The Premier League are hoping Netflix and Amazon get in on the act as they know that streaming is both an issue and the future. Sky TV is an ageing delivery for their content and they know it.

It will take a while but there is only so much money that folk will dish out to watch football and it's getting ever closer.

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Re: So when will the bubble burst?

Post by Dr.Karl » Sat Apr 27, 2019 2:39 am

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:40 pm
Athertonian wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:33 pm
I would suspect that, the majority of Championship clubs are well in debt because of their pursuance of the promise land. I always said should one club go under many would follow.

Sky seem to be one of the reasons why clubs survive, should Sky ever become troubled financially we could say majority of the prem clubs would suffer.
Comcast, the new US owners of Sky have just announced their first quarter underlying profit has fallen by 17% over last year.
They specifically blamed costs in relation to contracts in European football rights.
Everything's in a bubble including sports rights. Once tv companies can't financially justify paying x billion a year for tv rights, the whole game implodes. I've read sky sports viewing figures and subscriptions are down from a couple of seasons ago. People are losing interest.

Unfortunately, we will probably be the first club to go bust on the back of this bubble(I suspect one of many).
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Re: So when will the bubble burst?

Post by piesrus » Sat Apr 27, 2019 6:57 am

There is plenty of money to go round and much more to come; growing middle classes in South East Asia, India and China will offer up hundreds of millions of potential customers.
How the money is divvied up is the issue, but the game is not run by a socialist co-operative. Clubs have to look after themselves and fans need to be more closely involved to ensure their club does not fall into the hands of rogues or nutjobs.

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Re: So when will the bubble burst?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sat Apr 27, 2019 8:38 am

Welcome back, Dr Karl - long time no read.

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Re: So when will the bubble burst?

Post by Aanvalluh » Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:39 am

Dr.Karl wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 2:39 am
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:40 pm
Athertonian wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:33 pm
I would suspect that, the majority of Championship clubs are well in debt because of their pursuance of the promise land. I always said should one club go under many would follow.

Sky seem to be one of the reasons why clubs survive, should Sky ever become troubled financially we could say majority of the prem clubs would suffer.
Comcast, the new US owners of Sky have just announced their first quarter underlying profit has fallen by 17% over last year.
They specifically blamed costs in relation to contracts in European football rights.
Everything's in a bubble including sports rights. Once tv companies can't financially justify paying x billion a year for tv rights, the whole game implodes. I've read sky sports viewing figures and subscriptions are down from a couple of seasons ago. People are losing interest.

Unfortunately, we will probably be the first club to go bust on the back of this bubble(I suspect one of many).
There's so much football on TV now, fans mush be picking and choosing their games and concentrating on their own teams. How many are really interested in Brighton v Watford? If anyone who doesn't support them is watching, it's probably as background wallpaper TV.

Love to see far less live general football, and more webcasts geared to your own team; and ifollow has shown it can be done for overseas subscribers.

Would you rather watch Brighton v Watford with 20 camera angles and 5 presenters and pundits, or Bolton* with one camera and no commentators?

*OK, not THIS season, naturally :shock:

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Re: So when will the bubble burst?

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:29 pm

piesrus wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 6:57 am
There is plenty of money to go round and much more to come; growing middle classes in South East Asia, India and China will offer up hundreds of millions of potential customers.
How the money is divvied up is the issue, but the game is not run by a socialist co-operative. Clubs have to look after themselves and fans need to be more closely involved to ensure their club does not fall into the hands of rogues or nutjobs.
The money in Asia will go to Asian leagues... you've only got to look at the cricket scene in India to note the future of football.
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Re: So when will the bubble burst?

Post by BennyD » Wed May 08, 2019 4:18 pm

Burnley fan in peace. To the OP; when Coyle went to you with all our club’s infrastructure and left us high and dry, we were ridiculed by some of your fans as being a tin-pot club and it was all we deserved. At the same time we pointed to the fact that your Sugar Daddy was underwriting your £170+m debt but we were assured that there was no problem. A lot can happen in 9 years, and it has. Now the boot is very firmly on the other foot I could, but won’t, gloat. The plain fact is that a club should be run along the lines of Burnley, where the aim is to sustain the future of the club by prudent managerial appointments and sound transfers and anything else is a bonus. I hope you don’t get a charlatan buying, and wrecking, the club because we need clubs like Bolton, Burnley, Blackpool and even ba5tard Rovers in the league. We run our club within our means which is what we earn out of the game, and this is something you guys will have to do. You’ll have to start from scratch and take small steps to get going again, but you shouldn’t lose heart as it might take some time. I wish you well and personally and I take no pleasure from the situation in which you find yourselves. Best of luck.

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Re: So when will the bubble burst?

Post by DJBlu » Wed May 08, 2019 4:24 pm

It's short sighted people that have contributed to the downfall. To be fair to those at the time, the £170million+ debt was written off and wasn't a worry. The issue was the fact we were being taken over by two men, one who used a payday lender and another who didn't have a pot to piss in either.

I admire what your club has done and I doubt you'll find many true fans out there who wish harm on any club.

You might not think it but there were those who didn't want Coyle. Look at it this way, we did you a favour.

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Re: So when will the bubble burst?

Post by nicholaldo » Wed May 08, 2019 5:03 pm

BennyD wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 4:18 pm
Burnley fan in peace. To the OP; when Coyle went to you with all our club’s infrastructure and left us high and dry, we were ridiculed by some of your fans as being a tin-pot club and it was all we deserved. At the same time we pointed to the fact that your Sugar Daddy was underwriting your £170+m debt but we were assured that there was no problem. A lot can happen in 9 years, and it has. Now the boot is very firmly on the other foot I could, but won’t, gloat. The plain fact is that a club should be run along the lines of Burnley, where the aim is to sustain the future of the club by prudent managerial appointments and sound transfers and anything else is a bonus. I hope you don’t get a charlatan buying, and wrecking, the club because we need clubs like Bolton, Burnley, Blackpool and even ba5tard Rovers in the league. We run our club within our means which is what we earn out of the game, and this is something you guys will have to do. You’ll have to start from scratch and take small steps to get going again, but you shouldn’t lose heart as it might take some time. I wish you well and personally and I take no pleasure from the situation in which you find yourselves. Best of luck.

Your post reads as though you're taking at least some pleasure from it. But thank you for sentiment all the same.

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Re: So when will the bubble burst?

Post by boltonboris » Wed May 08, 2019 5:38 pm

BennyD wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 4:18 pm
Burnley fan in peace. To the OP; when Coyle went to you with all our club’s infrastructure and left us high and dry, we were ridiculed by some of your fans as being a tin-pot club and it was all we deserved. At the same time we pointed to the fact that your Sugar Daddy was underwriting your £170+m debt but we were assured that there was no problem. A lot can happen in 9 years, and it has. Now the boot is very firmly on the other foot I could, but won’t, gloat. The plain fact is that a club should be run along the lines of Burnley, where the aim is to sustain the future of the club by prudent managerial appointments and sound transfers and anything else is a bonus. I hope you don’t get a charlatan buying, and wrecking, the club because we need clubs like Bolton, Burnley, Blackpool and even ba5tard Rovers in the league. We run our club within our means which is what we earn out of the game, and this is something you guys will have to do. You’ll have to start from scratch and take small steps to get going again, but you shouldn’t lose heart as it might take some time. I wish you well and personally and I take no pleasure from the situation in which you find yourselves. Best of luck.
A conveniently timed promotion coupled with an excellent Manager. It's not a business model. You are only "sustainable", because you enjoyed the huge windfall of the TV rights boom. It was pure luck that it happened when it did. Fair play for getting there by all means, but don't pretend you wouldn't be fecked if you were doing what you were doing a decade ago
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Re: So when will the bubble burst?

Post by Worthy4England » Wed May 08, 2019 6:01 pm

boltonboris wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 5:38 pm
BennyD wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 4:18 pm
Burnley fan in peace. To the OP; when Coyle went to you with all our club’s infrastructure and left us high and dry, we were ridiculed by some of your fans as being a tin-pot club and it was all we deserved. At the same time we pointed to the fact that your Sugar Daddy was underwriting your £170+m debt but we were assured that there was no problem. A lot can happen in 9 years, and it has. Now the boot is very firmly on the other foot I could, but won’t, gloat. The plain fact is that a club should be run along the lines of Burnley, where the aim is to sustain the future of the club by prudent managerial appointments and sound transfers and anything else is a bonus. I hope you don’t get a charlatan buying, and wrecking, the club because we need clubs like Bolton, Burnley, Blackpool and even ba5tard Rovers in the league. We run our club within our means which is what we earn out of the game, and this is something you guys will have to do. You’ll have to start from scratch and take small steps to get going again, but you shouldn’t lose heart as it might take some time. I wish you well and personally and I take no pleasure from the situation in which you find yourselves. Best of luck.
A conveniently timed promotion coupled with an excellent Manager. It's not a business model. You are only "sustainable", because you enjoyed the huge windfall of the TV rights boom. It was pure luck that it happened when it did. Fair play for getting there by all means, but don't pretend you wouldn't be fecked if you were doing what you were doing a decade ago
For all this running the club the right way, Burnley's debt at the last accounts was sat at £62m - larger than our book debt. Debt is fine as long as you have the means to pay it off....Should they suffer a relegation and fine they don't head straight back up (as Swansea won't this outing), then it starts to very rapidly become a different picture...

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Re: So when will the bubble burst?

Post by BennyD » Wed May 08, 2019 6:54 pm

We got promoted because we had the right manager and the right players at the right time which, it could be argued, is a good business plan. When Coyle dumped us we got Brian Laws in which didn’t work out too well, after that we appointed Eddie Howe and then Sean Dyche, which did. As for debt, we are still working to reduce it and last seasons £35m profit will help as will any profit this season. We don’t have a benevolent owner to write off a £170m loss so we survive by our own endeavours and, at the moment, this seems to be working; the recent Premier League survey found Burnley to be the most sensibly run club in the division. I feel for you guys with the idiots that have screwed you over, as I feel for Blackpool with theirs. I didn’t come over here to have an argument, I came over to wish you well for the future.

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Re: So when will the bubble burst?

Post by Worthy4England » Wed May 08, 2019 7:34 pm

Kind thoughts, Benny.

Don't think anyone's really spoiling for an argument. The things that are killing us quickest are only tangentially related with the oft mis-reported amount of cash Eddie Davies ploughed in. Things like having a couple of training grounds (not got them anymore) and an academy and a Prem stadium etc. start to weigh heavily in rates and utilities when the parachute payments stop, they're fairly normal type infrastructure for a Prem Club. Not many Clubs in L1 supporting that sort of infrastructure.

Not sure what the detail on parachute payments is, but our Revenue halved when we dropped out of the Prem in one year. With a load of players on three year contracts, that was a £40m loss in one drop. (Other "stuff" happens - you're assets (players), all of a sudden are worth a lot less etc. so you take a write-down)

Two years ago with an income of ~£9m, we were still spending £20m to operate the Club, trying to get further inroads into a £13m wage bill.

All I'm saying is, it's not that easy to cut. If your revenue halved (as ours did), then your income would cover your salary costs (you'd be at £61m Rev and are at the same number for salaries) - just. Then I think you're still showing a £62m in debt.

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