What is our best starting eleven?

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Bruce Rioja
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Re: What is our best starting eleven?

Post by Bruce Rioja » Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:54 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:52 pm
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:40 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:36 am
Bit busy today and the numbers aren't easy to find at third-tier level, but as "saves made" is [attempts on target] minus [goals], it's not quite the shots-per-goal you request but it's not far off it.
Soz, should of course read 'saves' made. My broader point though in relation to simply presenting these things numerically, and going back to my original point that I feel more comfortable with Alnwick in goal rather than Matthews is, and I'm using extremes here, of course;

If goalkeeper A lets one slip between his hands but it smacks him in the face and it bounces to safety - One save.
If goalkeeper B then dives full length to tip one over that's otherwise rocketing towards the top corner - still one save.
If goalkeeper A then 'does a Ben Amos' and manages to dive all over a weak shot which he allows to pass underneath him - one goal conceded.
If goalkeeper B then turns a Platini free-kick on to the underside of the bar which bounces down a centimetre over the line - still one goal conceded.

So, that stats show these two to be equal, but which one would you prefer in your side?
That's the difference between qualitative and quantitative evidence. I take it then that you're a fan of xG, which is more the former? :D

Here's a less extreme, more relevant thing. If goalkeeper A makes six saves per game but lets in one howler, is he better or worse than goalkeeper B who makes no howlers but still only saves two out of four efforts?
Depends entirely on the circumstances of each individual case/effort. Somewhere there'll be a tipping point between praising the keeper and criticising the attacker, and vice versa.
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Re: What is our best starting eleven?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:19 pm

That’ll be Expected Saves, then. I doubt they do them down at our level.

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Re: What is our best starting eleven?

Post by Bruce Rioja » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:11 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:19 pm
That’ll be Expected Saves, then. I doubt they do them down at our level.
Ahh, 'expected'.

Transitioning nicely back to my starting point of 'opinion', then?! 😉
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Re: What is our best starting eleven?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:15 am

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:11 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:19 pm
That’ll be Expected Saves, then. I doubt they do them down at our level.
Ahh, 'expected'.

Transitioning nicely back to my starting point of 'opinion', then?! 😉
Yes, the ones collated by Opta Opinions. No, wait a minute, Opta Stats. :D

As usual, I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I understand why folk distrust Matthews (and for that matter science, sorry, stats) but there’s definitely something in the fact he simply makes more saves than Alnwick.

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Re: What is our best starting eleven?

Post by Prufrock » Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:25 am

xG and expected saves is not "science". One of the factors used in calculating xG for example is "whether it is defined as a big chance".

It's pseudoscientific hokum (though I understand the temptations of the view that it's there so we might as well look at it).
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Re: What is our best starting eleven?

Post by Bruce Rioja » Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:37 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:15 am
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:11 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:19 pm
That’ll be Expected Saves, then. I doubt they do them down at our level.
Ahh, 'expected'.

Transitioning nicely back to my starting point of 'opinion', then?! 😉
Yes, the ones collated by Opta Opinions. No, wait a minute, Opta Stats. :D

As usual, I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I understand why folk distrust Matthews (and for that matter science, sorry, stats) but there’s definitely something in the fact he simply makes more saves than Alnwick.
Whether you're missing the key word 'expected' on purpose or not I don't know. I couldn't give a monkey's who compiles numbers Expected as per who's say so? Ask opta or whoever to prove their expectation criteria. I'm truly interested as to how they arrive at this other than for it being somebody's opinion.
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Re: What is our best starting eleven?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:39 pm

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:37 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:15 am
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:11 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:19 pm
That’ll be Expected Saves, then. I doubt they do them down at our level.
Ahh, 'expected'.

Transitioning nicely back to my starting point of 'opinion', then?! 😉
Yes, the ones collated by Opta Opinions. No, wait a minute, Opta Stats. :D

As usual, I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I understand why folk distrust Matthews (and for that matter science, sorry, stats) but there’s definitely something in the fact he simply makes more saves than Alnwick.
Whether you're missing the key word 'expected' on purpose or not I don't know. I couldn't give a monkey's who compiles numbers Expected as per who's say so? Ask opta or whoever to prove their expectation criteria. I'm truly interested as to how they arrive at this other than for it being somebody's opinion.
That’s what you want, isn’t it? Enjoy! :D

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Re: What is our best starting eleven?

Post by Bruce Rioja » Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:55 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:39 pm
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:37 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:15 am
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:11 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:19 pm
That’ll be Expected Saves, then. I doubt they do them down at our level.
Ahh, 'expected'.

Transitioning nicely back to my starting point of 'opinion', then?! 😉
Yes, the ones collated by Opta Opinions. No, wait a minute, Opta Stats. :D

As usual, I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I understand why folk distrust Matthews (and for that matter science, sorry, stats) but there’s definitely something in the fact he simply makes more saves than Alnwick.
Whether you're missing the key word 'expected' on purpose or not I don't know. I couldn't give a monkey's who compiles numbers Expected as per who's say so? Ask opta or whoever to prove their expectation criteria. I'm truly interested as to how they arrive at this other than for it being somebody's opinion.
That’s what you want, isn’t it? Enjoy! :D
Mate, what I want is, in whatever scenario, to challenge the data when a statistic is presented as being 'end of', errr, end of :D
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Re: What is our best starting eleven?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:13 pm

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:55 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:39 pm
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:37 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:15 am
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:11 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:19 pm
That’ll be Expected Saves, then. I doubt they do them down at our level.
Ahh, 'expected'.

Transitioning nicely back to my starting point of 'opinion', then?! 😉
Yes, the ones collated by Opta Opinions. No, wait a minute, Opta Stats. :D

As usual, I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I understand why folk distrust Matthews (and for that matter science, sorry, stats) but there’s definitely something in the fact he simply makes more saves than Alnwick.
Whether you're missing the key word 'expected' on purpose or not I don't know. I couldn't give a monkey's who compiles numbers Expected as per who's say so? Ask opta or whoever to prove their expectation criteria. I'm truly interested as to how they arrive at this other than for it being somebody's opinion.
That’s what you want, isn’t it? Enjoy! :D
Mate, what I want is, in whatever scenario, to challenge the data when a statistic is presented as being 'end of', errr, end of :D
When did that happen? When I said "the truth lies somewhere in the middle"?

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Re: What is our best starting eleven?

Post by Bruce Rioja » Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:32 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:13 pm
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:55 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:39 pm
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:37 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:15 am
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:11 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:19 pm
That’ll be Expected Saves, then. I doubt they do them down at our level.
Ahh, 'expected'.

Transitioning nicely back to my starting point of 'opinion', then?! 😉
Yes, the ones collated by Opta Opinions. No, wait a minute, Opta Stats. :D

As usual, I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I understand why folk distrust Matthews (and for that matter science, sorry, stats) but there’s definitely something in the fact he simply makes more saves than Alnwick.
Whether you're missing the key word 'expected' on purpose or not I don't know. I couldn't give a monkey's who compiles numbers Expected as per who's say so? Ask opta or whoever to prove their expectation criteria. I'm truly interested as to how they arrive at this other than for it being somebody's opinion.
That’s what you want, isn’t it? Enjoy! :D
Mate, what I want is, in whatever scenario, to challenge the data when a statistic is presented as being 'end of', errr, end of :D
When did that happen? When I said "the truth lies somewhere in the middle"?
When? From when I first challenged your 'stats'. That'll be towards the beginning of this exchange, then.
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Re: What is our best starting eleven?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:52 pm

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:32 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:13 pm
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:55 pm
Mate, what I want is, in whatever scenario, to challenge the data when a statistic is presented as being 'end of', errr, end of :D
When did that happen? When I said "the truth lies somewhere in the middle"?
When? From when I first challenged your 'stats'. That'll be towards the beginning of this exchange, then.
Genuinely confused. I’ve read and reread this thread and I can’t see anywhere where I’ve given it the “end of”, or anything even remotely close to it. I reported the figures on Matthews because they seem, to me at least, to be illuminating; doesn’t mean I think anyone should be silenced. If I think there are facts, stats (or “stats”) or counter-opinions to what’s been said, I’ll endeavour to add them, but I don’t see the point in attempting to close down conversation considering that’s the point of a forum. I think you’ll agree I’m usually quite open-minded and balanced. Or maybe not. Maybe I need a break. :conf:

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