FV Recruitment Model

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by nicholaldo » Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:39 pm

I'm definitely in favour of us implementing a long-term plan and strategy; it's something we've been desperately in need of and is a big step in the right direction in my opinion. However, I hope that if we do adopt a statistical model we're not wholly reliant on it, as statistics can't measure every required characteristic and there still has to be a degree of subjective judgement.

And ironically, although I'm very pleased to read about the structures we're putting together, the signing of lower league players is actually one thing I'd be happy to trust Hill with.

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by bristol_Wanderer3 » Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:07 pm

Vydra at £11m from Derby might be another to add to Burnley's small list of misses.

Peterborough have probably been the best at getting players from non league/L2 and selling them on. Gayle, Assombalonga, Connor Washington, Ryan Bennett etc - but even for them that seems to be getting more difficult.

Brentford's system seems comprehensive. They pick up a lot of players from Denmark, and lower levels of Ligue 1, as well as picking up players from L1/L2, and reserve teams of PL teams.

Our youth system is already very successful. Clough and Holding helped to keep us alive after the 2016 earthquake, and Connell might have bought us a vital few extra weeks in the aftermath of the larger 2019 one. Darcy and Politic will be sold to higher level clubs soon imho, whilst Brockbank is interesting Sunderland. If in time we can add a few gems from the 2/3 div of foreign countries, PL/Champ youth teams, any non leaguers, plus maintain our own academy, with the right manager and DoF, it won't be easy but might be our best shot.

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by nicholaldo » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:09 pm

One of the many interesting things about Brentford is that they recently closed their Academy set-up and introduced in its place “Brentford B”, which is a team comprised of young players who are signed upon their release from other clubs. It plays matches against the same Academies as the rest do but on an informal basis, with the stated aim being to promote at least one player to the first-team squad each season.

I don't know if I'm comfortable with us being quite so bold but there are similarities between our club and theirs in that, just like London, the north west is a particularly competitive area for young talent, and we're both geographically close to significantly bigger clubs, whose Academies, whether we like it or not, are in many people's opinion more appealing. Also, as promising as some of the players we've produced lately are, they're perhaps the first and only generation for whom the overwhelming majority of their time spent at the Academy will have been during the period it was classed as Category 1. Now it's Category 2 and that inevitably has consequences on both the quality of the coaches we can employ and the ability of the young players we can recruit and develop. There's not simply one method of success, and an alternative might be for us to work towards reinstating our Category 1 status, but the Brentford blueprint might well an option our new owners want to think about as well.

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:15 pm

nicholaldo wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:09 pm
One of the many interesting things about Brentford is that they recently closed their Academy set-up and introduced in its place “Brentford B”, which is a team comprised of young players who are signed upon their release from other clubs. It plays matches against the same Academies as the rest do but on an informal basis, with the stated aim being to promote at least one player to the first-team squad each season.

I don't know if I'm comfortable with us being quite so bold but there are similarities between our club and theirs in that, just like London, the north west is a particularly competitive area for young talent, and we're both geographically close to significantly bigger clubs, whose Academies, whether we like it or not, are in many people's opinion more appealing. Also, as promising as some of the players we've produced lately are, they're perhaps the first and only generation for whom the overwhelming majority of their time spent at the Academy will have been during the period it was classed as Category 1. Now it's Category 2 and that inevitably has consequences on both the quality of the coaches we can employ and the ability of the young players we can recruit and develop. There's not simply one method of success, and an alternative might be for us to work towards reinstating our Category 1 status, but the Brentford blueprint might well an option our new owners want to think about as well.
Brentford's argument was simple when their academy produced a young talent who might be good in the future - they lost them. For nothing or a very small sum. Before said player had even broken into the U23s. So they changed tack and decided to have a B team with discards - players who were older who could be signed on proper contracts where appropriate and assessed for 1st team readiness earlier. Players discarded from bigger clubs in their teens.

It makes a lot of sense. Rather than spending a million or two a year running an academy where real talent just leaves or rarely realises potential - pick off the rejects and try and shine a few of them up.

Fact is that such a model will eventually be copied and become saturated. There are only so many discarded players with the potential to make it. But arguably we could adopt something similar. I think a proper cost/benefit analysis of the academy is in order really. I don't know which way it would fall but certainly since its inception my gut feeling is that it hasn't come close to breaking even. I could well be wrong. But be good for a full analysis.

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by Prufrock » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:24 pm

It's tough though because under normal circumstances you could argue it would (or at the very least would've brought in a lot more). Holding and Connell in particular.

But then you might argue in normal circumstances they wouldn't have got the chance. So who knows. Having 3 of the top 6 and their academies on our doorstep a) hovering up the best academy age talent and b) then discarding them later might suggest there's an opportunity for at least A North West side to go that way.
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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by Dr Hotdog » Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:15 pm

The stats/analytics led us to sign Gary Speed for pittance when everyone assumed he was just going to phase out at Newcastle. I'm all for it, if implemented correctly.

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:34 pm

Nipping back to discussion of Burnley - I've just read an interesting piece on their recruitment model, namely hiring three different types of players: young ones to improve, later-twentysomethings who can hopefully step straight in but retain transfer value, and older players who can do a job but they won't get fiscal return on. Apparently, they currently only have eight players contracted after summer 2021, although they have options on four more, and the exceptions are players like McNeil, Tarkowski, Pope, Wood and Barnes - the best ones, in other words. That seems like good sense to me...

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:07 pm

Shrewsbury looked good at our place to me, organised and robust. And did brilliantly tonight...former Wanderer in charge...cos our fans seem to like that thing. Just saying like...

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:22 am

Hill on Moneyball etc.

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/1 ... er-kenyon/
“This might be a last four or five-day market but we have done a lot of liaising with Peter Kenyon, put a lot of evidence in front of Peter Kenyon with respect to the players we want to recruit and it’s a question of making sure we can get those deals over the line.

“You have to be patient as well. There has to be a certain amount of methodology to what we do. We do a lot of work as a staff, that hasn’t changed.

“I heard a comparison to Moneyball – and I have been using Moneyball since I started managing at 36 years old. I try and stretch the pound, try and stretch the penny.

“We have created our own matrix from the way we want to play. We have designed our own DNA on player recruitment. I have always used the non-league and every club I have been at has always made a financial profit.

“That is the Moneyball system I have used on limited resources. You don’t need masses of staff, you need intelligent people who are willing to work hard, simple really.

“We are trying to use the resource of our budget as efficiently as we possibly can so that we don’t go outside it. We are always willing to make money – trade, trade, trade. It’s important when you are working within restrictions that you are willing to trade.

“Moneyball is an illusion. I think if you were to compare it to any football club in Britain I’d definitely go with the Brentford model. I think it’s amazing what they do. But we are still in the same situation with respect to recruitment – myself and David (Flitcroft) are liaising with Peter Kenyon.

“The rest of the work is being done by a lot of people to make sure we get the best people from the list we have – we have a number one, and probably a number 10. And it’s the same whether it’s a central defender, a midfielder. We have a list of players and can we realistically get those players on that list?”

 “With respect to using data, we always use data,” he said. “We use it to improve players, to measure players on a daily basis, and they are the resources you can work efficiently with in a small group of staff but make sure that the players, the culture and the hard work develops and then you can start measuring it even more.

“From a Moneyball situation, what Bolton do want moving forward is to invest in coaching, developing players, to achieve three-point promotion success, and a succession of saleable assets. That’s a good model but at this moment in time it won’t be to the scale of Brentford.”

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:33 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:22 am
Hill on Moneyball etc.

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/1 ... er-kenyon/
“This might be a last four or five-day market but we have done a lot of liaising with Peter Kenyon, put a lot of evidence in front of Peter Kenyon with respect to the players we want to recruit and it’s a question of making sure we can get those deals over the line.

“You have to be patient as well. There has to be a certain amount of methodology to what we do. We do a lot of work as a staff, that hasn’t changed.

“I heard a comparison to Moneyball – and I have been using Moneyball since I started managing at 36 years old. I try and stretch the pound, try and stretch the penny.

“We have created our own matrix from the way we want to play. We have designed our own DNA on player recruitment. I have always used the non-league and every club I have been at has always made a financial profit.

“That is the Moneyball system I have used on limited resources. You don’t need masses of staff, you need intelligent people who are willing to work hard, simple really.

“We are trying to use the resource of our budget as efficiently as we possibly can so that we don’t go outside it. We are always willing to make money – trade, trade, trade. It’s important when you are working within restrictions that you are willing to trade.

“Moneyball is an illusion. I think if you were to compare it to any football club in Britain I’d definitely go with the Brentford model. I think it’s amazing what they do. But we are still in the same situation with respect to recruitment – myself and David (Flitcroft) are liaising with Peter Kenyon.

“The rest of the work is being done by a lot of people to make sure we get the best people from the list we have – we have a number one, and probably a number 10. And it’s the same whether it’s a central defender, a midfielder. We have a list of players and can we realistically get those players on that list?”

 “With respect to using data, we always use data,” he said. “We use it to improve players, to measure players on a daily basis, and they are the resources you can work efficiently with in a small group of staff but make sure that the players, the culture and the hard work develops and then you can start measuring it even more.

“From a Moneyball situation, what Bolton do want moving forward is to invest in coaching, developing players, to achieve three-point promotion success, and a succession of saleable assets. That’s a good model but at this moment in time it won’t be to the scale of Brentford.”
Hill - I use data. Honest. I am Mr data. Seriously I'll talk all day about data. I've done data since I was born.

Hill one minute later to his PR officer - What's this data stuff they're on about?

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by officer_dibble » Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:00 am

Unfortunately for Hill he doesn’t have a PR officer...

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:25 am

officer_dibble wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:00 am
Unfortunately for Hill he doesn’t have a PR officer...
He or she would certainly earn their corn...

I dunno. I've said it before but IMO Parky was too reticent and, frankly, dull. Hill certainly isn't that. I'd love it for my club's sake if he could turn it round, because his word-torrent sure makes for conversation. Poor old Ilesy had a job to get a single line out of a Parky presser; now he's got so much "content" that he can barely keep up and has taken to using Soundcloud.

In the end he'll be judged by what his teams do, not what he says. That's currently a much bigger problem than his verbal diarrhoea. This is a big three days in his career as he tries to get in the players to make the next four months a glimpse of potential rather than the slow death march to relegation that we've had under each of the last two managers.

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Jan 29, 2020 1:10 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:25 am
officer_dibble wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:00 am
Unfortunately for Hill he doesn’t have a PR officer...
He or she would certainly earn their corn...

I dunno. I've said it before but IMO Parky was too reticent and, frankly, dull. Hill certainly isn't that. I'd love it for my club's sake if he could turn it round, because his word-torrent sure makes for conversation. Poor old Ilesy had a job to get a single line out of a Parky presser; now he's got so much "content" that he can barely keep up and has taken to using Soundcloud.

In the end he'll be judged by what his teams do, not what he says. That's currently a much bigger problem than his verbal diarrhoea. This is a big three days in his career as he tries to get in the players to make the next four months a glimpse of potential rather than the slow death march to relegation that we've had under each of the last two managers.
Parky was a calming influence on a crazy club. Hill is a crazy influence on a club trying to calm down.

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Jan 29, 2020 1:24 pm

Is a crazy influence, or just an interview gobshite?

Has he set fire to the main stand?

Has he refused to work with Kenyon?

Has he pissed in Sharon's shoes?

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by officer_dibble » Wed Jan 29, 2020 1:32 pm

We don’t know do we.

But if he talks to players how he talks about some of them it is no wonder to me why heads were dropped from the off, and after we equalised bizarrely.

Only ones who looked ‘up for it’ last night were Daryl Murphy (who fast got fed up), Matthews and O Grady. But this is going off on a tangent...

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by irie Cee Bee » Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:41 pm

For me Hill is a big step up from Phil's predictable dull comments. However, his nobody on the same page commentary after Rochdale was disastrous, and moved him closer to the crazy line in my mind. Is he the one to take us back up with this model.. seriously doubt it.

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by bristol_Wanderer3 » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:47 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:22 am
Hill on Moneyball etc.

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/1 ... er-kenyon/
“This might be a last four or five-day market but we have done a lot of liaising with Peter Kenyon, put a lot of evidence in front of Peter Kenyon with respect to the players we want to recruit and it’s a question of making sure we can get those deals over the line.

“You have to be patient as well. There has to be a certain amount of methodology to what we do. We do a lot of work as a staff, that hasn’t changed.

“I heard a comparison to Moneyball – and I have been using Moneyball since I started managing at 36 years old. I try and stretch the pound, try and stretch the penny.

“We have created our own matrix from the way we want to play. We have designed our own DNA on player recruitment. I have always used the non-league and every club I have been at has always made a financial profit.

“That is the Moneyball system I have used on limited resources. You don’t need masses of staff, you need intelligent people who are willing to work hard, simple really.

“We are trying to use the resource of our budget as efficiently as we possibly can so that we don’t go outside it. We are always willing to make money – trade, trade, trade. It’s important when you are working within restrictions that you are willing to trade.

“Moneyball is an illusion. I think if you were to compare it to any football club in Britain I’d definitely go with the Brentford model. I think it’s amazing what they do. But we are still in the same situation with respect to recruitment – myself and David (Flitcroft) are liaising with Peter Kenyon.

“The rest of the work is being done by a lot of people to make sure we get the best people from the list we have – we have a number one, and probably a number 10. And it’s the same whether it’s a central defender, a midfielder. We have a list of players and can we realistically get those players on that list?”

 “With respect to using data, we always use data,” he said. “We use it to improve players, to measure players on a daily basis, and they are the resources you can work efficiently with in a small group of staff but make sure that the players, the culture and the hard work develops and then you can start measuring it even more.

“From a Moneyball situation, what Bolton do want moving forward is to invest in coaching, developing players, to achieve three-point promotion success, and a succession of saleable assets. That’s a good model but at this moment in time it won’t be to the scale of Brentford.”
Where Hill equates moneyball with money and films that begin with the letter "M" :)

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