The Keith Hill out thread

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Worthy4England
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Re: The Keith Hill out thread

Post by Worthy4England » Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:20 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:19 pm
Just a note which may help adjust expectations: no team relegated to D4 has made it back as high as D2, let alone D1, since Bournemouth in 2008.

So all we need is one of the best managers of his generation and a mysterious Russian backer happy to bankroll us way beyond our profitability.

This does not, of course, mean I think Keith Hill is excellent or even competent, but anybody expecting this relegation to be a springboard back to the top of the game might be accused of ignoring history and arguably reality. Game's gone a long way since we last fell this far, back before the backpass was outlawed.
We were pretty lucky first time around, in that we made it up into the Prem in the 90's without ED's wonga (largely). But it's very easy to forget that back in 1999 we were still carrying a set of creditors to whom we owed a debt of £25m so we were still getting wonga from elsewhere...£25m is not unadrift of the speculated debt position re the latest takeover. We then bankrolled through ED and TV payments through the next 10 year period to consolidate our position in the Prem.

There appears to be a pretty strong correlation between cash going into a Club and it's final position in any league - there are of course some outliers. that occasionally buck the trend, but largely finishing position and cash input have a pretty strong link. FV were on a "multi-year" plan to clear the debt position in line with the Admin's report. And there's the embargo to contend with for some time to come.

My expectations are that we'll be in D4/D3 for some while yet. A quick peek towards the top of the Champo shows significant levels of debt being held at Leeds, West Brom, Brentford - all seem to owe shitloads to someones.

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Re: The Keith Hill out thread

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:31 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:20 pm
My expectations are that we'll be in D4/D3 for some while yet.
Mine too, and I think that'll be alright. Try to get promoted again within a couple of seasons, then try to win more games than we lose in D3. Maybe even, occasionally, bobbing into D2 for a sensible but doomed attempt at survival. Barring fairy godfathers and other deus ex machina I can't see a way we can compete for promotion in D2 without risking the club again.

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Re: The Keith Hill out thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:13 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:31 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:20 pm
My expectations are that we'll be in D4/D3 for some while yet.
Mine too, and I think that'll be alright. Try to get promoted again within a couple of seasons, then try to win more games than we lose in D3. Maybe even, occasionally, bobbing into D2 for a sensible but doomed attempt at survival. Barring fairy godfathers and other deus ex machina I can't see a way we can compete for promotion in D2 without risking the club again.
I think that’s about reet, we should be able to eventually hold our own in the lower mid table reaches of the championship perhaps the odd trip lower down.

But that’s how I’d see us now. Low end championship top end league one. Eventually.

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Re: The Keith Hill out thread

Post by officer_dibble » Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:35 pm

The bare minimum has to be we all start enjoying watching the games again. Winning fewer than ten games a season ain’t that fun.

I dunno, I’d like to think we will be in a position to crack league two quickly when you look at the comparables but there is no divine right - Portsmouth were down there for a bit.

We have to avoid dropping down again. We wouldn’t come back from the conference.

For me we need a new manager and to sign some leaders on the pitch. For too long I have looked at that team and thought there is nobody out there willing to grab the game by the scruff of the neck and dig in. Always too willing to accept our fate.

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Re: The Keith Hill out thread

Post by Harry Genshaw » Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:52 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:19 pm
Just a note which may help adjust expectations: no team relegated to D4 has made it back as high as D2, let alone D1, since Bournemouth in 2008.
Interesting point about the 4th division in 2008. 4 sides started the division with points deductions that season. 3 of which were bigger deductions than we started with this season.

Luton (-30!), Bournemouth (-17), Rotherham (-17) and Darlington, remember them? (-10).

Without their deductions Luton & Bournemouth would have finished mid table while Darlington and Rotherham would have made the play offs.

I realise its comparing apples with oranges but it does show it wasn't entirely unrealistic to suggest we could make a better fist of avoiding relegation than we appear to be doing.
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Re: The Keith Hill out thread

Post by Bruce Rioja » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:36 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:30 pm

Also I don't think EH is all that. One club, potentially one trick pony, backed extensively as you say. But we'll see.
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Re: The Keith Hill out thread

Post by Enoch » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:43 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:13 pm
I think that’s about reet, we should be able to eventually hold our own in the lower mid table reaches of the championship
We really do need a shaking the head emoji.

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Re: The Keith Hill out thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:32 pm

Enoch wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:43 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:13 pm
I think that’s about reet, we should be able to eventually hold our own in the lower mid table reaches of the championship
We really do need a shaking the head emoji.
I’ve watched us rise from the bottom division before. The only season we’ve spent there in our history. Our history, potential crowd sizes and relative comparison to other clubs would put us somewhere in the lower reaches of the championship, or top half of league one as I said. I see absolutely no reason for anyone who supports Bolton Wanderers and truly understands its history to think we cannot reach that level again.

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Re: The Keith Hill out thread

Post by Worthy4England » Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:24 am

I don't think it's unrealistic to think we might reach that level again. But. Nor do I think we're out of the woods on the possibility we go the other direction. We know FV raised enough cash to stop us going bump, but only time will tell if that truly stabilizes us. Fildraw still seem to be a significant part of the picture, so I suspect that means they didn't call all of their debt in. Realistically, I think it's probably a longer plan to try and get us anywhere near the top tiers than some may be expecting. There's probably more cash going in to clear debt than investing in players, and I don't think that stops for a couple of years...after which we may see if there's a plan for growth. Struggling to recall how many times we've paid a fee for anyone (that we've actually paid), even a fairly nominal one.

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Re: The Keith Hill out thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:51 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:24 am
I don't think it's unrealistic to think we might reach that level again. But. Nor do I think we're out of the woods on the possibility we go the other direction. We know FV raised enough cash to stop us going bump, but only time will tell if that truly stabilizes us. Fildraw still seem to be a significant part of the picture, so I suspect that means they didn't call all of their debt in. Realistically, I think it's probably a longer plan to try and get us anywhere near the top tiers than some may be expecting. There's probably more cash going in to clear debt than investing in players, and I don't think that stops for a couple of years...after which we may see if there's a plan for growth. Struggling to recall how many times we've paid a fee for anyone (that we've actually paid), even a fairly nominal one.
Completely agree with bolded part. Its why decisions and management are so, so crucial.

From what I heard around takeover - we're screwed if we cannot get out of league two quickly and by that I mean "immediately" financially speaking. FV's plan b was a season in league 2. The projected income gap to L1 is a few million - but that's a few million we don't have - and investment for a league 2 club - nigh on impossible to find.

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Re: The Keith Hill out thread

Post by Athertonian » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:44 am

I can't bring myself listen to Hills pre/post match interviews any longer, the guy just waffles on and on. According to form he was pleased by that performance at Wimbledon. That says everything about this manager.

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Re: The Keith Hill out thread

Post by officer_dibble » Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:51 am

Clearly there are more important things going on.

But for a football discussion...has the collapse of this season (a) given Keith the perfect out and make it certain he will start next season (assuming it happens!) in charge? Or (b) has it removed the opportunity for him to redeem himself and get some results out of a team who were just starting to gel?

Given we could well be forced into a scenario involving completing this awful season in L1 and straight into a L2 campaign is a change in manager not something we should be pursuing?

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Re: The Keith Hill out thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:14 am

officer_dibble wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:51 am
Clearly there are more important things going on.

But for a football discussion...has the collapse of this season (a) given Keith the perfect out and make it certain he will start next season (assuming it happens!) in charge? Or (b) has it removed the opportunity for him to redeem himself and get some results out of a team who were just starting to gel?

Given we could well be forced into a scenario involving completing this awful season in L1 and straight into a L2 campaign is a change in manager not something we should be pursuing?
You need a pre season between for contracts. Frankly I think this situation has screwed us beyond belief in so many ways. We're going to do well to stay in the league I think. IF we survive on a whole greater level.

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Re: The Keith Hill out thread

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:52 pm

In the search for light relief, I shoulda known better than to check this forum...

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Re: The Keith Hill out thread

Post by Worthy4England » Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:40 pm

His post match has improved significantly the last couple of weeks!

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Re: The Keith Hill out thread

Post by officer_dibble » Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:28 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:52 pm
In the search for light relief, I shoulda known better than to check this forum...
Haha, I wasn’t on the path to do well to avoid the conference!

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