Half season predictions

Where fellow sufferers gather to share the pain, longing and unrequited transfer requests that make being a Wanderer what it is...

Moderator: Zulus Thousand of em

Final position 20/21 prediction

Poll ended at Mon Jan 25, 2021 8:05 am

Top (for the crazy)
0
No votes
2-3 and up automatically
0
No votes
Playoffs
2
12%
8-12 (top half)
7
41%
12-18 (not relegated, hooray)
7
41%
18-22 (sweaty Ken)
1
6%
23-24 (darkness)
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 17

officer_dibble
Legend
Legend
Posts: 9921
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:33 pm
Location: Leeds

Half season predictions

Post by officer_dibble » Mon Jan 18, 2021 8:05 am

Based on the wild predictions (thanks Ian) from pre season here’s a second chance. What we all thinking?

LeverEnd
Legend
Legend
Posts: 8735
Joined: Fri Dec 21, 2012 11:18 pm
Location: Dirty Leeds

Re: Half season predictions

Post by LeverEnd » Mon Jan 18, 2021 8:48 am

I think we are where we deserve to be and that's where we'll stay roughly. I could see a slight upturn but nowhere near the consistency to take us to the playoffs.
13th, unlucky for some.
A worst ever league finish, adding to the raft of recent records broken.
...

BWFC_Insane
Immortal
Immortal
Posts: 27129
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:07 pm

Re: Half season predictions

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Jan 18, 2021 10:30 am

LeverEnd wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 8:48 am
I think we are where we deserve to be and that's where we'll stay roughly. I could see a slight upturn but nowhere near the consistency to take us to the playoffs.
13th, unlucky for some.
A worst ever league finish, adding to the raft of recent records broken.
I suspect this too. I think somewhere mid table. We showed enough Saturday for me to suggest we could have a better run but my no means guaranteed. But hopefully enough to stay up comfortably. I do think we could do far better with what we've got but that's a different day....I wouldn't necessarily rule out a really strong finish though if we master the new system and get the best out of some players we currently are not.

The_Gun
Reliable
Reliable
Posts: 712
Joined: Tue May 22, 2018 9:54 am

Re: Half season predictions

Post by The_Gun » Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:06 am

Anyone who didn’t go for at least playoffs is a shit fan. 😀

Worthy4England
Immortal
Immortal
Posts: 24581
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 6:45 pm

Re: Half season predictions

Post by Worthy4England » Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:24 am

The_Gun wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:06 am
Anyone who didn’t go for at least playoffs is a shit fan. 😀
Or capable of observing what they've seen in front of them, so far! :grin:

I thought I'd pushed the boat out, going for 8th-12th!

User avatar
Dave Sutton's barnet
Immortal
Immortal
Posts: 19321
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 4:00 pm
Location: Hanging on in quiet desperation
Contact:

Re: Half season predictions

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:40 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:24 am
The_Gun wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:06 am
Anyone who didn’t go for at least playoffs is a shit fan. 😀
Or capable of observing what they've seen in front of them, so far! :grin:

I thought I'd pushed the boat out, going for 8th-12th!
Same here. But I do think there’s promise and I don’t think it’s a division in which a bunch of teams are breaking away.

I think I said before the season that if it all clicks we could make a late charge for the playoffs and while it’s true that finishing 8th or 22nd brings the same result, it doesn’t bring the same feel and levels of confidence. Equally, I’d argue that being top at Christmas and 8th in May is much worse than being 16th at Christmas and 8th in May. We need to build momentum, we need to build excitement, we need to build belief.

officer_dibble
Legend
Legend
Posts: 9921
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:33 pm
Location: Leeds

Re: Half season predictions

Post by officer_dibble » Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:41 am

I’m just tempering my inner Ian Evatt.
1. I underestimated what we had signed and how long it takes a team to gel.
2. I probably underestimated the quality of the league (albeit that’s a hard one to analyse). I had seen some league two in the last couple of seasons and thought pretty poorly of it but some teams (Newport, Vale) have looked pretty good.

I can’t see us finishing in the top half...maybe I’ll rethink if we get Kioso back or something similar up top (tall, quick, strong).

Worthy4England
Immortal
Immortal
Posts: 24581
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 6:45 pm

Re: Half season predictions

Post by Worthy4England » Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:39 pm

officer_dibble wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:41 am
I’m just tempering my inner Ian Evatt.
1. I underestimated what we had signed and how long it takes a team to gel.
2. I probably underestimated the quality of the league (albeit that’s a hard one to analyse). I had seen some league two in the last couple of seasons and thought pretty poorly of it but some teams (Newport, Vale) have looked pretty good.

I can’t see us finishing in the top half...maybe I’ll rethink if we get Kioso back or something similar up top (tall, quick, strong).
In fairness on point 1, I lost count of the number of times we were told we'd signed "the complete midfielder/defender/attacker", when we were signing them.

The_Gun
Reliable
Reliable
Posts: 712
Joined: Tue May 22, 2018 9:54 am

Re: Half season predictions

Post by The_Gun » Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:59 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:39 pm
officer_dibble wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:41 am
I’m just tempering my inner Ian Evatt.
1. I underestimated what we had signed and how long it takes a team to gel.
2. I probably underestimated the quality of the league (albeit that’s a hard one to analyse). I had seen some league two in the last couple of seasons and thought pretty poorly of it but some teams (Newport, Vale) have looked pretty good.

I can’t see us finishing in the top half...maybe I’ll rethink if we get Kioso back or something similar up top (tall, quick, strong).
In fairness on point 1, I lost count of the number of times we were told we'd signed "the complete midfielder/defender/attacker", when we were signing them.
Evatt definitely oversold some of those lads massively, but to be honest, it's not really a surprise that a few of them have turned out to be duds. When you're recruiting that number of players without the ability to pay transfer fees it's surely inevitable there will be plenty of misses amongst the hits. I think too many of us got sucked into believing that we'd somehow managed to immediately recruit a squad good enough to win promotion essentially from scratch, which in hindsight was unrealistic.

User avatar
Dave Sutton's barnet
Immortal
Immortal
Posts: 19321
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 4:00 pm
Location: Hanging on in quiet desperation
Contact:

Re: Half season predictions

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:09 pm

The_Gun wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:59 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:39 pm
officer_dibble wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:41 am
I’m just tempering my inner Ian Evatt.
1. I underestimated what we had signed and how long it takes a team to gel.
2. I probably underestimated the quality of the league (albeit that’s a hard one to analyse). I had seen some league two in the last couple of seasons and thought pretty poorly of it but some teams (Newport, Vale) have looked pretty good.

I can’t see us finishing in the top half...maybe I’ll rethink if we get Kioso back or something similar up top (tall, quick, strong).
In fairness on point 1, I lost count of the number of times we were told we'd signed "the complete midfielder/defender/attacker", when we were signing them.
Evatt definitely oversold some of those lads massively, but to be honest, it's not really a surprise that a few of them have turned out to be duds. When you're recruiting that number of players without the ability to pay transfer fees it's surely inevitable there will be plenty of misses amongst the hits. I think too many of us got sucked into believing that we'd somehow managed to immediately recruit a squad good enough to win promotion essentially from scratch, which in hindsight was unrealistic.
I think you're right – but that requires an element of hubristic admission, and for many it's much easier to call the manager a fraud.

Worthy4England
Immortal
Immortal
Posts: 24581
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 6:45 pm

Re: Half season predictions

Post by Worthy4England » Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:21 pm

The_Gun wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:59 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:39 pm
officer_dibble wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:41 am
I’m just tempering my inner Ian Evatt.
1. I underestimated what we had signed and how long it takes a team to gel.
2. I probably underestimated the quality of the league (albeit that’s a hard one to analyse). I had seen some league two in the last couple of seasons and thought pretty poorly of it but some teams (Newport, Vale) have looked pretty good.

I can’t see us finishing in the top half...maybe I’ll rethink if we get Kioso back or something similar up top (tall, quick, strong).
In fairness on point 1, I lost count of the number of times we were told we'd signed "the complete midfielder/defender/attacker", when we were signing them.
Evatt definitely oversold some of those lads massively, but to be honest, it's not really a surprise that a few of them have turned out to be duds. When you're recruiting that number of players without the ability to pay transfer fees it's surely inevitable there will be plenty of misses amongst the hits. I think too many of us got sucked into believing that we'd somehow managed to immediately recruit a squad good enough to win promotion essentially from scratch, which in hindsight was unrealistic.
The Transfer Fees thing - did anyone in League Two pay any transfer fees? Regardless of whether they could/couldn't? I'm always a bit skeptical about using TransferMrkt as I'm not sure how accurate it is, but it sorta suggests transfer fees aren't something that happens in League 2...

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/league- ... bewerb/GB4

Harry Genshaw
Legend
Legend
Posts: 7629
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2005 10:47 pm
Location: Half dead in Panama

Re: Half season predictions

Post by Harry Genshaw » Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:33 pm

I predicted top 10 pre season based on the players we still had and those we'd picked up, who I'd heard of.

I'm still anxious that we've another Dougie Freedman on our hands and to my own shame, I bought into a lot of Evatts early optimism, just as I bought into Freedmans 'vision'.

That said, there is something there I'm sure and I dont think we're a million miles off. We'd have to do really well in this transfer window, and in the treatment room, to be capable of a late charge towards the play offs. I just cant see it now.

14th.
"Get your feet off the furniture you Oxbridge tw*t. You're not on a feckin punt now you know"

BWFC_Insane
Immortal
Immortal
Posts: 27129
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:07 pm

Re: Half season predictions

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:38 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:09 pm
The_Gun wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:59 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:39 pm
officer_dibble wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:41 am
I’m just tempering my inner Ian Evatt.
1. I underestimated what we had signed and how long it takes a team to gel.
2. I probably underestimated the quality of the league (albeit that’s a hard one to analyse). I had seen some league two in the last couple of seasons and thought pretty poorly of it but some teams (Newport, Vale) have looked pretty good.

I can’t see us finishing in the top half...maybe I’ll rethink if we get Kioso back or something similar up top (tall, quick, strong).
In fairness on point 1, I lost count of the number of times we were told we'd signed "the complete midfielder/defender/attacker", when we were signing them.
Evatt definitely oversold some of those lads massively, but to be honest, it's not really a surprise that a few of them have turned out to be duds. When you're recruiting that number of players without the ability to pay transfer fees it's surely inevitable there will be plenty of misses amongst the hits. I think too many of us got sucked into believing that we'd somehow managed to immediately recruit a squad good enough to win promotion essentially from scratch, which in hindsight was unrealistic.
I think you're right – but that requires an element of hubristic admission, and for many it's much easier to call the manager a fraud.
Ahem....

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/18 ... tion-push/
‘There’s no two ways about it, we can’t beat around the bush – we need to be getting promoted, there’s no doubt about it. We need to be up there challenging. There isn’t any point sitting here saying it’s a project, this club should not be in League Two and it’s my job to make sure we get out of League Two as soon as we possibly can.’
‘I get to more or less have a blank canvas and that’s exciting for me. I have the opportunity to build a team how I see fit. We’ve drilled down in a lot of detail in terms of recruitment and we are position specific, I have an idea of what we need for different positions. We’ll be looking at all sorts of recruitment to make sure we fulfil that.
Its not a case of being a fraud - its a question of his ability and experience. The evidence to date suggests even by relative league 2 standards he's not very good at his job. He's not the first very poor manager here and he won't be the last either - sadly.

Worthy4England
Immortal
Immortal
Posts: 24581
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 6:45 pm

Re: Half season predictions

Post by Worthy4England » Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:58 pm

He's not going to say - we'll settle for mid-table, now is he? I think pre-season, I was sat at "play-offs" which given that covers 1/3 of the league pretty much, I still don't think that was then an unreasonable target (bearing in mind we might miss any target). I think, us being at 17th isn't good enough, but I wasn't calling for his head at Christmas. I wouldn't be happy with 17th at the end of the season, never having really challenged for a play-off place.

BWFC_Insane
Immortal
Immortal
Posts: 27129
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:07 pm

Re: Half season predictions

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:08 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:58 pm
He's not going to say - we'll settle for mid-table, now is he? I think pre-season, I was sat at "play-offs" which given that covers 1/3 of the league pretty much, I still don't think that was then an unreasonable target (bearing in mind we might miss any target). I think, us being at 17th isn't good enough, but I wasn't calling for his head at Christmas. I wouldn't be happy with 17th at the end of the season, never having really challenged for a play-off place.
There are way's of subtly saying 'its going to take time' or 'we need to establish a team first and foremost and start to build the club back'. Over 'There's no two ways about it, we have to get promotion'.

Personally I think there is a lot of revisionism going on and can you imagine if pre-season I'd been saying we'd be lower half in January people would be crucifying me for being negative....nobody, apart from maybe one or two of the ultra pessimists, but nobody in August predicted how low we'd be right now. And if they claim they did they're probably lying.

Its a bit like the revisionist theory re signings - how they were all Phoenix's fault - yet I've just seen interviews where Evatt claimed he'd been working with Tobias before the paperwork was done on potential signings. And then apparently Liam Gordon was Evatt's pick as he'd seen him play in non-league.....I mean....clearly whatever you want to think Evatt has a huge amount to prove here and thus far has been a massive letdown. Whether you believe he's got it in him to stop being a letdown and take us where we need to be is of course up for debate. I'll honestly state I do not know. I just know what he's done so far is disastrous and he's surviving primarily because we probably have no other options.....

officer_dibble
Legend
Legend
Posts: 9921
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:33 pm
Location: Leeds

Re: Half season predictions

Post by officer_dibble » Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:22 pm

Three biggest recruitment problems for me (in this order):
1. Goalkeeper - he had feck all experience and to not sign a fit back up as well...idiocy.
2. Left (wing) back. Gordon had no league experience - the man was on set piece duty as well first game! Mascoll has never been fancied and to sign both looks naive at best.
3. Taft. Not sure what’s happened here to be honest but he was one of the experienced signings and that side of the defence continually lets us down.

Worthy4England
Immortal
Immortal
Posts: 24581
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 6:45 pm

Re: Half season predictions

Post by Worthy4England » Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:29 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:08 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:58 pm
He's not going to say - we'll settle for mid-table, now is he? I think pre-season, I was sat at "play-offs" which given that covers 1/3 of the league pretty much, I still don't think that was then an unreasonable target (bearing in mind we might miss any target). I think, us being at 17th isn't good enough, but I wasn't calling for his head at Christmas. I wouldn't be happy with 17th at the end of the season, never having really challenged for a play-off place.
There are way's of subtly saying 'its going to take time' or 'we need to establish a team first and foremost and start to build the club back'. Over 'There's no two ways about it, we have to get promotion'.

Personally I think there is a lot of revisionism going on and can you imagine if pre-season I'd been saying we'd be lower half in January people would be crucifying me for being negative....nobody, apart from maybe one or two of the ultra pessimists, but nobody in August predicted how low we'd be right now. And if they claim they did they're probably lying.

Its a bit like the revisionist theory re signings - how they were all Phoenix's fault - yet I've just seen interviews where Evatt claimed he'd been working with Tobias before the paperwork was done on potential signings. And then apparently Liam Gordon was Evatt's pick as he'd seen him play in non-league.....I mean....clearly whatever you want to think Evatt has a huge amount to prove here and thus far has been a massive letdown. Whether you believe he's got it in him to stop being a letdown and take us where we need to be is of course up for debate. I'll honestly state I do not know. I just know what he's done so far is disastrous and he's surviving primarily because we probably have no other options.....
There are indeed ways of saying it'll take time.

When you consider Salford sacked Graham Alexander when they were 5th with a 48% win percentage, it says something about ambition. I certainly wouldn't have predicted nor expected we'd be 17th with the signings we made prior to kick-off.

Worthy4England
Immortal
Immortal
Posts: 24581
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 6:45 pm

Re: Half season predictions

Post by Worthy4England » Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:33 pm

officer_dibble wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:22 pm
Three biggest recruitment problems for me (in this order):
1. Goalkeeper - he had feck all experience and to not sign a fit back up as well...idiocy.
2. Left (wing) back. Gordon had no league experience - the man was on set piece duty as well first game! Mascoll has never been fancied and to sign both looks naive at best.
3. Taft. Not sure what’s happened here to be honest but he was one of the experienced signings and that side of the defence continually lets us down.
What gets me, Dibs, is we keep talking about how we might attack and create chances and we're sat on the third leakiest defence in the Division...

BWFC_Insane
Immortal
Immortal
Posts: 27129
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:07 pm

Re: Half season predictions

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:50 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:29 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:08 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:58 pm
He's not going to say - we'll settle for mid-table, now is he? I think pre-season, I was sat at "play-offs" which given that covers 1/3 of the league pretty much, I still don't think that was then an unreasonable target (bearing in mind we might miss any target). I think, us being at 17th isn't good enough, but I wasn't calling for his head at Christmas. I wouldn't be happy with 17th at the end of the season, never having really challenged for a play-off place.
There are way's of subtly saying 'its going to take time' or 'we need to establish a team first and foremost and start to build the club back'. Over 'There's no two ways about it, we have to get promotion'.

Personally I think there is a lot of revisionism going on and can you imagine if pre-season I'd been saying we'd be lower half in January people would be crucifying me for being negative....nobody, apart from maybe one or two of the ultra pessimists, but nobody in August predicted how low we'd be right now. And if they claim they did they're probably lying.

Its a bit like the revisionist theory re signings - how they were all Phoenix's fault - yet I've just seen interviews where Evatt claimed he'd been working with Tobias before the paperwork was done on potential signings. And then apparently Liam Gordon was Evatt's pick as he'd seen him play in non-league.....I mean....clearly whatever you want to think Evatt has a huge amount to prove here and thus far has been a massive letdown. Whether you believe he's got it in him to stop being a letdown and take us where we need to be is of course up for debate. I'll honestly state I do not know. I just know what he's done so far is disastrous and he's surviving primarily because we probably have no other options.....
There are indeed ways of saying it'll take time.

When you consider Salford sacked Graham Alexander when they were 5th with a 48% win percentage, it says something about ambition. I certainly wouldn't have predicted nor expected we'd be 17th with the signings we made prior to kick-off.
And part of it points to a complete lack of experience and plenty of naivety. Walk into a new job and set such a definitive target - is probably not something many new managers would do. Especially with no squad in the building. Here's the thing I thought Evatt was the right appointment at the time. Someone fresh and new who could rebuild the club - pre his appointment I'd have said a play off push was a good season. But we then signed players that in my view signalled we should be aiming for promotion. You don't spend the money on Doyle, Sarcevic, Delfouneso etc if you want a season of stability - you build slower than that.....so I do believe firmly Evatt felt he had the squad to compete as did FV. It hasn't worked out and clearly there has been an attempt to shift the blame onto Phoenix. Who does seem a shadowy sort of figure that probably wasn't right for us in the long term. Evatt however, has the problem for me of not getting the best out of the group and having our fans in some cases thinking these players are hopeless. Yet to me its quite clear a number HAD to be his picks, White, Gordon for example. And neither have worked out brilliantly. Which brings me back to the fundamental question of - does Evatt have a clue what he's doing? It has to be a no. Then can he learn and improve and grow with us? Nobody knows that. But it wasn't the gig he was brought here for - and he doesn't strike me as the humble type either.

I actually don't dislike him at all. He seems perfectly fine, speaks well, comes across reasonably - he says a few stupid things but who doesn't? He's no Keith Hill thank god. I just fear that we'll waste a lot of time now waiting to see if he ever actually can resemble a good manager. And potentially money. I also think were fans in the ground - you'd see some pretty ugly scenes as numbers dwindled. I don't mind waiting to see what he can do because I do accept that bringing in an experienced manager now is not a quick fix and probably too expensive. I do just worry that if he can't turn this round we're going to throw away season after season. I'd argue there are relatively few examples (but there are some important ones) where managers start this badly and turn it round....not saying there are none but too often as we've seen here the slide just continues.....

BWFC_Insane
Immortal
Immortal
Posts: 27129
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:07 pm

Re: Half season predictions

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:56 pm

Also as an interesting side note - I listened to Evatt's interview at lunch before the first game of the season against FGR. When asked what he expected from FGR he said (and I paraphrase)...'I see them as a good footballing side who have learned that you have to change in league 2 and become a bit more physical, stronger and more direct'.....which I thought was interesting. Does it a) reflect that Evatt knew what league 2 entailed all along but Phoenix had an unrealistic dream about playing our way through it or b) suggest that Evatt is a bit muddled in his thinking?

I know these interviews are basically word salads at times and lets not read too much into it but when you consider the player who has made the biggest impact is not some technical wizard or diminutive ball playing star but a massive, hulking quick physical specimen in Kioso who we used as an aerial outlet down the right hand side. So perhaps Evatt did know this but was held back? Still I'd like to see much more evidence.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: enrdentw, KeyserSoze and 48 guests