When do we make a call on Evatt?

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How much longer should Evatt get?

Up to 3 games.
4
13%
Maybe another half dozen.
5
16%
He'll see the season out if we're not in relegation zone
7
23%
He'll go when we are in relegation zone
1
3%
He'll be here next season. That's the plan
14
45%
 
Total votes: 31

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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:25 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:04 pm
I really don't buy the narrative that they're an afterthought or we don't practice them or care. Though I do think there's an argument we've tried to be cute.

He often talks in his Friday interview with Iles about how disappointed they are with set pieces and how they're working on them. I think DSB suggested a quote from maybe Santos about how they do them on a Friday suggested they might be an afterthought but I think that's pretty standard practice. You find out who you're marking etc and run through them pre-game. We've also clearly got a lot better defending them.

You can also see from the trendy high line and the short corners we take that those are planned.

It's also part of the strategy to take lots of free kicks short unless they're in shooting range or wide. I would expect there are teams who have gained a goal or two on us on set pieces because they stick everything in the mixer. Our thinking I'm sure is that's outweighed by the benefits of quick ball.

I do think we might over think. I can't remember any of the short corners leading to a chance, and we clearly aren't getting enough out of Santos in the other box, either goals for him or his presence dragging people away. I wonder if the sparse coaching staff is a factor, they're trying not they don't really know what they're doing. Liverpool have a throw ins coach ffs!

Agreed on Dapo's free kick, one of the worst you will ever see. The middle of the middle of the wall. But tbf I think it's also pretty standard that players go off and practice the solo stuff alone. That was just bad execution.
Every corner should be put into the area just in front of the penalty spot - inswinging never outswinging - either direct or via a flick on (Rioch style). Its the highest percentage chance of scoring a goal from a corner. Frankly to not be aiming to do that is bonkers. Short corners are ok only when holding onto a lead. Rest of the time not sure what advantage you gain - OTHER than the unique circumstance where you catch a team out not expecting it and get into the penalty area along the byline. Sure that one surprise in a season thing is fine. But rest of the time put the ball in the box. Evatt will argue that the percentage chance of scoring from corners is low and building another 'open play' attack more advantageous and I would counter with this. Work out the % any team who practices corners score from. 3% say (the best might get to 7 or 8%) Work out any team and their % conversion from open play attacks - won't be anything close to that. Not close. So set pieces, corners and set pieces round the box are very important. And you need to play the percentages and not be trying to do something with a smaller chance of a goal from it.

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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by Worthy4England » Tue Mar 30, 2021 3:24 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:25 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:04 pm
I really don't buy the narrative that they're an afterthought or we don't practice them or care. Though I do think there's an argument we've tried to be cute.

He often talks in his Friday interview with Iles about how disappointed they are with set pieces and how they're working on them. I think DSB suggested a quote from maybe Santos about how they do them on a Friday suggested they might be an afterthought but I think that's pretty standard practice. You find out who you're marking etc and run through them pre-game. We've also clearly got a lot better defending them.

You can also see from the trendy high line and the short corners we take that those are planned.

It's also part of the strategy to take lots of free kicks short unless they're in shooting range or wide. I would expect there are teams who have gained a goal or two on us on set pieces because they stick everything in the mixer. Our thinking I'm sure is that's outweighed by the benefits of quick ball.

I do think we might over think. I can't remember any of the short corners leading to a chance, and we clearly aren't getting enough out of Santos in the other box, either goals for him or his presence dragging people away. I wonder if the sparse coaching staff is a factor, they're trying not they don't really know what they're doing. Liverpool have a throw ins coach ffs!

Agreed on Dapo's free kick, one of the worst you will ever see. The middle of the middle of the wall. But tbf I think it's also pretty standard that players go off and practice the solo stuff alone. That was just bad execution.
Every corner should be put into the area just in front of the penalty spot - inswinging never outswinging - either direct or via a flick on (Rioch style). Its the highest percentage chance of scoring a goal from a corner. Frankly to not be aiming to do that is bonkers. Short corners are ok only when holding onto a lead. Rest of the time not sure what advantage you gain - OTHER than the unique circumstance where you catch a team out not expecting it and get into the penalty area along the byline. Sure that one surprise in a season thing is fine. But rest of the time put the ball in the box. Evatt will argue that the percentage chance of scoring from corners is low and building another 'open play' attack more advantageous and I would counter with this. Work out the % any team who practices corners score from. 3% say (the best might get to 7 or 8%) Work out any team and their % conversion from open play attacks - won't be anything close to that. Not close. So set pieces, corners and set pieces round the box are very important. And you need to play the percentages and not be trying to do something with a smaller chance of a goal from it.
Here's the percentages from WhoScored, currently, not sure in Div 2 they support your contention around 8% of set-piece shots result in a goal, 10% of open play shots result in a goal...

Conversion rates.jpg
Conversion rates.jpg (287.71 KiB) Viewed 953 times

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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue Mar 30, 2021 3:57 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 3:24 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:25 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:04 pm
I really don't buy the narrative that they're an afterthought or we don't practice them or care. Though I do think there's an argument we've tried to be cute.

He often talks in his Friday interview with Iles about how disappointed they are with set pieces and how they're working on them. I think DSB suggested a quote from maybe Santos about how they do them on a Friday suggested they might be an afterthought but I think that's pretty standard practice. You find out who you're marking etc and run through them pre-game. We've also clearly got a lot better defending them.

You can also see from the trendy high line and the short corners we take that those are planned.

It's also part of the strategy to take lots of free kicks short unless they're in shooting range or wide. I would expect there are teams who have gained a goal or two on us on set pieces because they stick everything in the mixer. Our thinking I'm sure is that's outweighed by the benefits of quick ball.

I do think we might over think. I can't remember any of the short corners leading to a chance, and we clearly aren't getting enough out of Santos in the other box, either goals for him or his presence dragging people away. I wonder if the sparse coaching staff is a factor, they're trying not they don't really know what they're doing. Liverpool have a throw ins coach ffs!

Agreed on Dapo's free kick, one of the worst you will ever see. The middle of the middle of the wall. But tbf I think it's also pretty standard that players go off and practice the solo stuff alone. That was just bad execution.
Every corner should be put into the area just in front of the penalty spot - inswinging never outswinging - either direct or via a flick on (Rioch style). Its the highest percentage chance of scoring a goal from a corner. Frankly to not be aiming to do that is bonkers. Short corners are ok only when holding onto a lead. Rest of the time not sure what advantage you gain - OTHER than the unique circumstance where you catch a team out not expecting it and get into the penalty area along the byline. Sure that one surprise in a season thing is fine. But rest of the time put the ball in the box. Evatt will argue that the percentage chance of scoring from corners is low and building another 'open play' attack more advantageous and I would counter with this. Work out the % any team who practices corners score from. 3% say (the best might get to 7 or 8%) Work out any team and their % conversion from open play attacks - won't be anything close to that. Not close. So set pieces, corners and set pieces round the box are very important. And you need to play the percentages and not be trying to do something with a smaller chance of a goal from it.
Here's the percentages from WhoScored, currently, not sure in Div 2 they support your contention around 8% of set-piece shots result in a goal, 10% of open play shots result in a goal...


Conversion rates.jpg
Yeah but my argument is that teams have likely hundreds of open play attacks a game. And only say 8 set pieces per game. If you measure in time 80% would likely be 'open play'. Which means conversion is far far lower for open play than it is for corners. In my view at least. You're obviously going to have a higher shots to chance conversion for open play given the nature of it - and that you're trying to fashion a clear chance most of the time.

But what I'm saying is the likelihood of a goal from any one corner will be higher than from any one 'open play attack'. Because the argument is - are you more likely to score by putting the ball into the box from a corner or by using a short corner to build an open play attack. I think statistically its pretty clear you are more likely to score from putting it into the box. And that doesn't take into account things like teams having 10 behind the ball for a corner where an open play attack is probably harder to produce an end product from or a delivery from than sticking the corner in. A short corner to change the angle obviously is a different matter.

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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by Prufrock » Tue Mar 30, 2021 5:06 pm

I'm not sure any of us really have the stats to hand to make a call. City (who Evatt obviously models himself) on mix it up a lot. A lot of short corners but they also cross it a lot too. But I'm not sure we've ever really looked like executing it. Especially earlier in the season when we had an extra centre back I didn't understand why we weren't aiming for the "second six yard box" BWFCi describes.

I'm not arguing we're good at set pieces (particularly attacking), in my view it's been a weakness all season, I'm just saying that I don't think we've been neglecting them. The improvements defending them, the high line, and that we often go short, with a third man joining show there is a plan, it's just not a very good one :D
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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by Worthy4England » Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:57 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 3:57 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 3:24 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:25 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:04 pm
I really don't buy the narrative that they're an afterthought or we don't practice them or care. Though I do think there's an argument we've tried to be cute.

He often talks in his Friday interview with Iles about how disappointed they are with set pieces and how they're working on them. I think DSB suggested a quote from maybe Santos about how they do them on a Friday suggested they might be an afterthought but I think that's pretty standard practice. You find out who you're marking etc and run through them pre-game. We've also clearly got a lot better defending them.

You can also see from the trendy high line and the short corners we take that those are planned.

It's also part of the strategy to take lots of free kicks short unless they're in shooting range or wide. I would expect there are teams who have gained a goal or two on us on set pieces because they stick everything in the mixer. Our thinking I'm sure is that's outweighed by the benefits of quick ball.

I do think we might over think. I can't remember any of the short corners leading to a chance, and we clearly aren't getting enough out of Santos in the other box, either goals for him or his presence dragging people away. I wonder if the sparse coaching staff is a factor, they're trying not they don't really know what they're doing. Liverpool have a throw ins coach ffs!

Agreed on Dapo's free kick, one of the worst you will ever see. The middle of the middle of the wall. But tbf I think it's also pretty standard that players go off and practice the solo stuff alone. That was just bad execution.
Every corner should be put into the area just in front of the penalty spot - inswinging never outswinging - either direct or via a flick on (Rioch style). Its the highest percentage chance of scoring a goal from a corner. Frankly to not be aiming to do that is bonkers. Short corners are ok only when holding onto a lead. Rest of the time not sure what advantage you gain - OTHER than the unique circumstance where you catch a team out not expecting it and get into the penalty area along the byline. Sure that one surprise in a season thing is fine. But rest of the time put the ball in the box. Evatt will argue that the percentage chance of scoring from corners is low and building another 'open play' attack more advantageous and I would counter with this. Work out the % any team who practices corners score from. 3% say (the best might get to 7 or 8%) Work out any team and their % conversion from open play attacks - won't be anything close to that. Not close. So set pieces, corners and set pieces round the box are very important. And you need to play the percentages and not be trying to do something with a smaller chance of a goal from it.
Here's the percentages from WhoScored, currently, not sure in Div 2 they support your contention around 8% of set-piece shots result in a goal, 10% of open play shots result in a goal...


Conversion rates.jpg
Yeah but my argument is that teams have likely hundreds of open play attacks a game. And only say 8 set pieces per game. If you measure in time 80% would likely be 'open play'. Which means conversion is far far lower for open play than it is for corners. In my view at least. You're obviously going to have a higher shots to chance conversion for open play given the nature of it - and that you're trying to fashion a clear chance most of the time.

But what I'm saying is the likelihood of a goal from any one corner will be higher than from any one 'open play attack'. Because the argument is - are you more likely to score by putting the ball into the box from a corner or by using a short corner to build an open play attack. I think statistically its pretty clear you are more likely to score from putting it into the box. And that doesn't take into account things like teams having 10 behind the ball for a corner where an open play attack is probably harder to produce an end product from or a delivery from than sticking the corner in. A short corner to change the angle obviously is a different matter.
But the stats aren't showing attacks. They're showing attacks that resulted in shots. Assuming you can't score without something that constitutes a shot then you're more likely to create a shot from open play than you are to create a shot from a set piece....

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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by LeverEnd » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:52 pm

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:22 pm
managed to hit the bloke in the middle of the wall square in the bollocks. He couldn't have hit the wall more centrally if he'd got his geometry set out.
How do you know he wasn't 'dressing to the left'? Or right.
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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:28 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:57 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 3:57 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 3:24 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:25 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:04 pm
I really don't buy the narrative that they're an afterthought or we don't practice them or care. Though I do think there's an argument we've tried to be cute.

He often talks in his Friday interview with Iles about how disappointed they are with set pieces and how they're working on them. I think DSB suggested a quote from maybe Santos about how they do them on a Friday suggested they might be an afterthought but I think that's pretty standard practice. You find out who you're marking etc and run through them pre-game. We've also clearly got a lot better defending them.

You can also see from the trendy high line and the short corners we take that those are planned.

It's also part of the strategy to take lots of free kicks short unless they're in shooting range or wide. I would expect there are teams who have gained a goal or two on us on set pieces because they stick everything in the mixer. Our thinking I'm sure is that's outweighed by the benefits of quick ball.

I do think we might over think. I can't remember any of the short corners leading to a chance, and we clearly aren't getting enough out of Santos in the other box, either goals for him or his presence dragging people away. I wonder if the sparse coaching staff is a factor, they're trying not they don't really know what they're doing. Liverpool have a throw ins coach ffs!

Agreed on Dapo's free kick, one of the worst you will ever see. The middle of the middle of the wall. But tbf I think it's also pretty standard that players go off and practice the solo stuff alone. That was just bad execution.
Every corner should be put into the area just in front of the penalty spot - inswinging never outswinging - either direct or via a flick on (Rioch style). Its the highest percentage chance of scoring a goal from a corner. Frankly to not be aiming to do that is bonkers. Short corners are ok only when holding onto a lead. Rest of the time not sure what advantage you gain - OTHER than the unique circumstance where you catch a team out not expecting it and get into the penalty area along the byline. Sure that one surprise in a season thing is fine. But rest of the time put the ball in the box. Evatt will argue that the percentage chance of scoring from corners is low and building another 'open play' attack more advantageous and I would counter with this. Work out the % any team who practices corners score from. 3% say (the best might get to 7 or 8%) Work out any team and their % conversion from open play attacks - won't be anything close to that. Not close. So set pieces, corners and set pieces round the box are very important. And you need to play the percentages and not be trying to do something with a smaller chance of a goal from it.
Here's the percentages from WhoScored, currently, not sure in Div 2 they support your contention around 8% of set-piece shots result in a goal, 10% of open play shots result in a goal...


Conversion rates.jpg
Yeah but my argument is that teams have likely hundreds of open play attacks a game. And only say 8 set pieces per game. If you measure in time 80% would likely be 'open play'. Which means conversion is far far lower for open play than it is for corners. In my view at least. You're obviously going to have a higher shots to chance conversion for open play given the nature of it - and that you're trying to fashion a clear chance most of the time.

But what I'm saying is the likelihood of a goal from any one corner will be higher than from any one 'open play attack'. Because the argument is - are you more likely to score by putting the ball into the box from a corner or by using a short corner to build an open play attack. I think statistically its pretty clear you are more likely to score from putting it into the box. And that doesn't take into account things like teams having 10 behind the ball for a corner where an open play attack is probably harder to produce an end product from or a delivery from than sticking the corner in. A short corner to change the angle obviously is a different matter.
But the stats aren't showing attacks. They're showing attacks that resulted in shots. Assuming you can't score without something that constitutes a shot then you're more likely to create a shot from open play than you are to create a shot from a set piece....
To say that wouldn't you need to know how many open play attacks you had in total during the game both those ending in a shot and those not ending in a shot. Vs how many corners/set pieces you had in a game ending in a shot and those not. Maybe I'm missing something but I don't think those stats are available?

My argument is this - for any single corner are you more likely to score putting it into the box or taking a short corner and building open play attacks. Now the analysis has been done for the top flight a few years back and it showed that putting it into the box is significantly more likely to result in a goal. From a corner. Not sure exactly how that translates to us and league 2 but I'd be surprised if its different.

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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:02 am

Quick reminder that WhoScored includes throwins as “set pieces”. I think our defending of real dead balls has got much better but our threat from attacking them has a long way to go.

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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Mar 31, 2021 4:08 pm

Evatt at Press conference today
“The players are really training on the edge and I’m not going to stop that and I’m not going to take that away from them,” he said. “Obviously when they are playing at that high tempo and high intensity, on that edge, you do risk injury. Every tackle that goes in training, I’m ducking my head and closing my eyes but for now we are all good.”
Surely now is the time to scale back training to minimum and keep bodies fit and rested. Ok you don't want to go too far but I'd not be risking injury in a run in and certainly not be wanting players to use up energy towards the end of the season. They should be fit and should be primed. I'm sure I read Allardyce barely did any training towards the end of the season was all non contact tactical stuff....

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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by Bruce Rioja » Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:13 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 4:08 pm
Evatt at Press conference today
“The players are really training on the edge and I’m not going to stop that and I’m not going to take that away from them,” he said. “Obviously when they are playing at that high tempo and high intensity, on that edge, you do risk injury. Every tackle that goes in training, I’m ducking my head and closing my eyes but for now we are all good.”
Surely now is the time to scale back training to minimum and keep bodies fit and rested. Ok you don't want to go too far but I'd not be risking injury in a run in and certainly not be wanting players to use up energy towards the end of the season. They should be fit and should be primed. I'm sure I read Allardyce barely did any training towards the end of the season was all non contact tactical stuff....
I agree. Against FG I thought that the game was played with such intensity, at such a pace and for so long that a few of ours were found wanting late on, chiefly Thomason if I want to be picky.
Evatt can now introduce a half an outfield team's worth of substitutes.
So what is it - do we run the players into the ground in training? Or does Evatt, and this is my preference, make earlier and wiser substitutions?
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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by officer_dibble » Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:13 pm

Allardyce didn’t sign half a team in January. In fairness to Evatt the February / early March fixture schedule meant they were barely training. I dunno, it seems odd to to be going full pelt now but I don’t always trust what he says. We generally look fitter than the opposition towards the end (Saturday did seem to sap it out of us though). I’d imagine your Alex Baptistes and Eoin Doyle’s aren’t at full pelt but you would hope Marcus Maddison and the rest of the backup crew were?

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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:48 am

officer_dibble wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:13 pm
Allardyce didn’t sign half a team in January. In fairness to Evatt the February / early March fixture schedule meant they were barely training. I dunno, it seems odd to to be going full pelt now but I don’t always trust what he says. We generally look fitter than the opposition towards the end (Saturday did seem to sap it out of us though). I’d imagine your Alex Baptistes and Eoin Doyle’s aren’t at full pelt but you would hope Marcus Maddison and the rest of the backup crew were?
Yeah its more waking up tomorrow to hear that in a full blooded training encounter Santos ended up with an injury that rules him out for a few weeks. I mean its energy and everything else too but for me the last thing we need is training ground injuries. If players need to train for fitness now then something is wrong IMO.

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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Apr 01, 2021 1:25 pm

I suspect our manager, always good for a quote and evidently thoroughly enjoying himself right now, might be somewhat overstating the nature of challenges in training. I'm sure they aren't screaming into 40-60s, studs-up.

I get the point that the higher the training intensity, the higher the risk of injury. But on the other hand, this run was built on momentum and we saw against Walsall, after the first midweek off in six weeks, that the players were relatively sluggish. I'm not saying they have to charge at each other hip-high to maintain momentum, but I'll bet a pound to a pinch of shit that if they start sluggishly someone will swiftly be along to ask What The Hell They Do In Training All Week.

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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by Bertie Wooster » Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:07 pm

After everything that has gone on over the past few years & given the shite start we made this season - automatic promotion would be up there for me as an amazing achievement by Ian Evatt & the players. For what its worth, I do suspect that it will be the play off's following the poor Easter results, but if they (the players) can raise their game again for the next 4-5 weeks etc. and actually do it this then IMO it would be a much greater achievement than League 1 promotion under the 'undertaker' (sorry Parkinson).

We have several players in the current squad who could be with the club over the next few years if we go up, and with the fans being back next season (which I'm sure we will), they would be supported at a level that the majority of the current squad will & would have never experienced in their careers, I can only think of Kieran Lee who would have had better support at Sheff Weds than us.

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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:44 pm

I assume by "better support" you mean bigger in numbers, rather than our support who like to single players out for dogs abuse and boo a lot. :-)

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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by LeverEnd » Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:54 pm

Bertie Wooster wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:07 pm


I can only think of Kieran Lee who would have had better support at Sheff Weds than us.
If he stays he might be playing them next season. They're as likely to go down as we are to go up.
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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by Bruce Rioja » Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:15 pm

Let us never lose sight of the fact that on occasion, Evatt has a propensity to make a nice person of himself.
“Yeah, I knew what was coming. There were just too many under par. Too many not playing their level and when that happens in a difficult game against a team fighting for their lives in difficult conditions, you end up losing games."

So, you knew that was coming yet named an unchanged side from four days ago and didn't make any changes until the 71st minute despite us being a goal down? Really?
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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by Mar » Sat Apr 24, 2021 11:17 am

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:15 pm
Let us never lose sight of the fact that on occasion, Evatt has a propensity to make a nice person of himself.
“Yeah, I knew what was coming. There were just too many under par. Too many not playing their level and when that happens in a difficult game against a team fighting for their lives in difficult conditions, you end up losing games."

So, you knew that was coming yet named an unchanged side from four days ago and didn't make any changes until the 71st minute despite us being a goal down? Really?
I suspect the flip side of this argument is that the opposite is often true as well in that we scored two goals (albeit disallowed) and he could expect more of the same. Bad results happen and Evatt's not against making mistakes. I think we'd all be happy for him making correct decisions the majority of the time and I think he's doing that quite capably. Although i'm pretty sure you're thinking along these lines, just like I was expected changes too prior to the 71st minute mark.

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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by dave the minion » Sat Apr 24, 2021 7:19 pm

Well I don't know about you lot, but I'm prepared to give him until the end of the season....
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Re: When do we make a call on Evatt?

Post by RusholmeRuffian » Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:22 pm

Someone set up a new poll?

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