Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Worthy4England » Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:21 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:29 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:55 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:59 pm
Not got data on this but 7th in league two last few seasons has got 71,75,70,75 points. So somewhere between 70-75 to get that play off spot.

15 games left. 8 or 9 wins to get a spot. Assuming a few draws too.

Probably 10/11 wins minimum for a shot at automatics.
Had a quick dig. I suspect the two 75pt totals were outliers. Here's the 7th-placed points totals in the last decade (excl last season cos it didn't finish)
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Screenshot 2021-02-27 at 19.37.01.png
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You'll notice I've added along with the 7th-placed points totals when most teams round there had reached 31 games - an inexact science, but worth a peep, because that's the mark we reached today - and we're on 47pts, lower than any of those.

True, the teams directly below us with a game or two in hand might nudge it up – but equally, they might not, because the fixture schedule is getting unusually crammed and the division seems unusually even this season, which is part of the reason we've shot up 12 places in a month: it's an "Anyone can beat anyone" division. Today, Morecambe (currently 5th) lost to Mansfield (16th); on Wednesday, FGR (2nd) lost at home to Southend (22nd); last Saturday, Cheltenham (3rd) lost at home to Bradford (11th); the week before, Tranmere (4th) lost at home to Stevenage (18th), and so on. The form tables look like someone's wired up traffic lights to a disco DJ's decks: only one team in the entire division has avoided defeat in its last five games, and we support it. Better than that, we've won all five.

I also have a feeling that other teams will suddenly be very worried that we seem to be winning a lot; if they also know we're winning some of them without hitting top gear, that will hardly calm their nerves.

Anyway, a theoretical 70pts would require us to get another 23 from 15 games - W7 D2 L6. It doesn't seem too absurdly ambitious.

IDK, it could go either way, but I suspect it'll be more like 70 than 75. It might even be more like 65 than 75, but we'll see.
Thanks I was hoping you’d do this. It’s definitely an inexact science this season as you say it’s a bit unusual. We are on 47 as were a couple of other teams in there.

I’m not sure you can predict it but as you say anywhere from 68-75 and maybe even a couple lower this time round. It’s very doable. We need to keep finding ways to win. Mathematically obviously teams have games in hand.

But I’d argue with our squad the options we’ve got off the bench then assuming a huge injury curse doesn’t strike we’d probably be favourites of the chasing pack.
I can say with a significant degree of certainty, that if we finish higher than 8th and lower than 6th, 7th will be ours.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Worthy4England » Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:27 pm

Anyone else find it a bit strange that there seems to have been no sort of statement regarding Maddison?

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Prufrock » Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:34 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:27 pm
Anyone else find it a bit strange that there seems to have been no sort of statement regarding Maddison?
Evatt said in the post match he was ill. Not covid but some sort of sickness. Recovered enough to watch but not in time to play.
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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Prufrock » Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:40 pm

I agree that the tempo today was frustrating but I think it's conscious. One thing i noticed that seemed different today was on the ball Lee and Williams both split and basically went to play at full back while the full backs pushed on. Possibly part of the new "content".

Think we ended up with 70% possession. I think the plan is to be more like an (obviously shitter) City and basically monopolise the ball and back yourselves to score at some point. If it doesn't work then today looks awful but worth noting that the unbeaten seven games have included 5 clean sheets (and 3 in a row). Don't concede and you can't lose.

Increasingly (or not) it's a lot more like the tiki taka parody Pep always bristled about being badged with.
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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:59 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:40 pm
I agree that the tempo today was frustrating but I think it's conscious. One thing i noticed that seemed different today was on the ball Lee and Williams both split and basically went to play at full back while the full backs pushed on. Possibly part of the new "content".

Think we ended up with 70% possession. I think the plan is to be more like an (obviously shitter) City and basically monopolise the ball and back yourselves to score at some point. If it doesn't work then today looks awful but worth noting that the unbeaten seven games have included 5 clean sheets (and 3 in a row). Don't concede and you can't lose.

Increasingly (or not) it's a lot more like the tiki taka parody Pep always bristled about being badged with.
See I love Man City but given we are playing infinitely worse teams than they are shouldn’t we look a lot less shit than we actually do? I don’t think we have a grand plan to score. Or break teams down. We pass sideways and backwards because for whatever reason we think keeping the ball is more important than putting the opposition under pressure. City very rarely knock the ball around in their own half meaninglessly. They draw teams on then switch up the tempo. They have players in midfield capable of going through the gears in the blink of an eye. And if you watch they play neat triangles all over the pitch. We do literally none of that.

If anything I’d say we are a poor mans 2019 Liverpool with full backs bombing on ahead of a front three. But there is no reason to think 70% possession is an advantage. It is when you literally move a team about but we don’t. We pass it and let teams sit in their shape. Barrow could quite easily have won today. We need to play these games differently. With tempo, urgency and putting the ball into the box more consistently and with more craft. There were small periods we did that and Barrow creaked. When we went back to the majority of laboured and extremely dull possession Barrow looked like they could face that all day.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Prufrock » Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:17 pm

Liverpool at their best are/were miles more direct than we were today. Salah and Mane are always running in behind and their midfielders always look to play forward first.

I mean, as I said, were obviously much shitter at it than city, I just mean I think that's the plan. Whether that's the best way to win games at this level is another question.

The reason I bring up the comparison is not to say we're like city going forward but to say I think the plan is to keep the ball wherever possible on the basis that if the other side don't have it they can't score. 5 clean sheets in 7. You almost bore teams to death and hope for a mistake (that's the two Saturdays in a row) and hope you have the quality to score anyway (Tuesday).
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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Worthy4England » Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:37 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:34 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:27 pm
Anyone else find it a bit strange that there seems to have been no sort of statement regarding Maddison?
Evatt said in the post match he was ill. Not covid but some sort of sickness. Recovered enough to watch but not in time to play.
Oh. Listened to the post match and must've missed that bit. Ta.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Worthy4England » Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:40 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:40 pm
Increasingly (or not) it's a lot more like the tiki taka parody Pep always bristled about being badged with.
There were times today I was saying to myself "Fcuk, this must be what it's like being an Arsenal fan". Didn't feel great.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Worthy4England » Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:50 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:59 pm
Barrow could quite easily have won today.
Yes, in the sense that at 0-0 any side could win. Reality they had one shot on target and two off target...it was a good shot and our keeper did what he's paid for.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by brommers95 » Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:10 pm

Oh to have been there for this


CODE: SELECT ALL

Hard not to feel for the Barrow lads watching the end of that clip, must have been soul destroying. They defended superbly and worked their bollocks off, credit to them.

As frustrating as it was to watch today, not much beats a 93rd minute winner and you can't argue with 19 points from the past 21. The real test is now, with Oldham, Bradford and Cambridge up next.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:15 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:50 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:59 pm
Barrow could quite easily have won today.
Yes, in the sense that at 0-0 any side could win. Reality they had one shot on target and two off target...it was a good shot and our keeper did what he's paid for.
I’m not saying they deserved to win. But they created about the same as we did. Last minute ref easily could have given a penalty...I mean it wasn’t a pen but still could have been given. Instead we go up the other end and score. I’m delighted but playing like this for the last 15 games won’t be enough and will also send some to sleep. I just want a bit more urgency take the fight to teams rather than so much laboured possession. Boris is right if we’d had a bit less of the ball it may well have been easier to draw Barrow out then hit the space behind them.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Worthy4England » Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:23 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:15 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:50 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:59 pm
Barrow could quite easily have won today.
Yes, in the sense that at 0-0 any side could win. Reality they had one shot on target and two off target...it was a good shot and our keeper did what he's paid for.
I’m not saying they deserved to win. But they created about the same as we did. Last minute ref easily could have given a penalty...I mean it wasn’t a pen but still could have been given. Instead we go up the other end and score. I’m delighted but playing like this for the last 15 games won’t be enough and will also send some to sleep. I just want a bit more urgency take the fight to teams rather than so much laboured possession. Boris is right if we’d had a bit less of the ball it may well have been easier to draw Barrow out then hit the space behind them.
The bit about urgency, I agree with. They really didn't create about the same as we did. At no point did they have significant spells of pressure.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:18 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:23 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:15 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:50 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:59 pm
Barrow could quite easily have won today.
Yes, in the sense that at 0-0 any side could win. Reality they had one shot on target and two off target...it was a good shot and our keeper did what he's paid for.
I’m not saying they deserved to win. But they created about the same as we did. Last minute ref easily could have given a penalty...I mean it wasn’t a pen but still could have been given. Instead we go up the other end and score. I’m delighted but playing like this for the last 15 games won’t be enough and will also send some to sleep. I just want a bit more urgency take the fight to teams rather than so much laboured possession. Boris is right if we’d had a bit less of the ball it may well have been easier to draw Barrow out then hit the space behind them.
The bit about urgency, I agree with. They really didn't create about the same as we did. At no point did they have significant spells of pressure.
I mean in terms of real chances. For all our pressure we didn’t make their keeper do much and the only real save was from Gilks.

Barrow setup to sit behind the ball with the occasional break. They expected pressure. It was their gameplan. I don’t feel like the way we played is a model for the last 15 games is all. Even against a side in the bottom 3 the game could have gone either way. We need to ensure that we play at a tempo teams can’t live with.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by officer_dibble » Sun Feb 28, 2021 8:49 am

When Santos played that ball back to Baptiste at walking pace on 92 minutes I was raging...!

Reading Evatts post game comments that style is here to stay, side to side, stretching the opposition and waiting patiently for the opening. We will have to live with teams doing sitting behind the ball and letting us have it. I think we need more out of Sarcevic than we got yesterday. Isgrove and Dapo were pretty wasteful. I would have been tempted with Arthur earlier - he just has the X factor in that you don’t know what he’s going to do, albeit his end product is hit and miss as well.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by DJBlu » Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:39 am

It's all good and well saying we need to play with a high tempo, but to do so takes energy. We're at the start of an extremely busy fixture list that is going to take a lot of energy. We're going to have days where we aren't at the races. As long as we pick up points then it's not really an issue. We got the 3 could have been 1 without getting out of 2nd gear. That has to be admired as in previous seasons we'd have been knackered coming off that pitch with the same outcome.

Start looking at the positives.

We screamed out for another striker. Miller has come back from injury and answered that call.

4 at the back. Evatt has sorted this and we're keeping clean sheets.

Santos and Baptiste. Who at the start of the season would say this would work?

Possession. We're making teams work like buggery. I'm going to look at Barrow's next result as they looked completely fooked when that goal went in. I appreciate it's demoralising when that happens but they looked absolutely knackered.

We've just got 15 points from 5 games. 5 wins in a row. Say what you like about the standard of opposition but we were struggling against these sides earlier in the season.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:40 am

officer_dibble wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 8:49 am
When Santos played that ball back to Baptiste at walking pace on 92 minutes I was raging...!

Reading Evatts post game comments that style is here to stay, side to side, stretching the opposition and waiting patiently for the opening. We will have to live with teams doing sitting behind the ball and letting us have it. I think we need more out of Sarcevic than we got yesterday. Isgrove and Dapo were pretty wasteful. I would have been tempted with Arthur earlier - he just has the X factor in that you don’t know what he’s going to do, albeit his end product is hit and miss as well.
Doesn’t matter how you play if you do it without intensity you won’t open teams up. The style is over egged. We scored a goal by throwing it in the box and something breaking for us. Had we done that from earlier on might have been much more comfortable.

I think we are seriously kidding ourselves if we think how we played yesterday was tiring Barrow out. It wasn’t. It was slow and helped them get in shape. We’ve played far better than that. I just don’t want us to become a side that strokes it around meaninglessly. I have a theory that on a football pitch every action taken should be with the aim of leading to a goal or preventing a goal. For me far too many yesterday happily went sideways and had no real impetus to take the ball forward.

Henshaw on this is right if you play like that you need to constantly feed your players who will run at and commit the opposition. We did that for brief spells but then stopped. A better side could easily recreate what Barrow did and hit on the break more effectively. We need to find a different way for those circumstances.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Jim_McDonuts » Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:44 am

Can't help feeling the GD is going to bite us at a critical juncture.
Have no memory of any early goals to us for a while, being just the kinda the thing we'll need for teams to drop their heads and give us a chance of a tonking or two.

Top-half of the league problems, eh... :D

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Feb 28, 2021 10:02 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:18 am
I mean in terms of real chances. For all our pressure we didn’t make their keeper do much and the only real save was from Gilks.

Barrow setup to sit behind the ball with the occasional break. They expected pressure. It was their gameplan. I don’t feel like the way we played is a model for the last 15 games is all. Even against a side in the bottom 3 the game could have gone either way. We need to ensure that we play at a tempo teams can’t live with.
The likeliest result probably looked to be a draw to me. We scored 1, we had the miss from Doyle which you pointed out anybody getting just about anything on it would've resulted in a sure goal. I also had Sarce's backpost chance as being reasonable. I'm struggling to see them scoring 2 with 1 shot on target or that they could've easily won. They had few attacks and even fewer where I thought they were going to score. As you've noted in many other places MJ William's added to Santos, Baps, Jones and John is making us much harder to score against.

It does feel like we've ground out results against Mansfield, Southend? And Barrow, albeit Mansfied goals in the last 10 mins all came from genuine threatening pressure.

Think I'd probably have had Miller and Arthur on earlier, maybe even HT. And no, I don't think we have the gameplan yet for the next 15 games. At some point we'll lose and you'll be able to say "told ya", but we've given ourselves a chance and it's one that looks mathematically, a whole lot better than it did 7 games ago.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by DJBlu » Sun Feb 28, 2021 10:12 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:15 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:50 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:59 pm
Barrow could quite easily have won today.
Yes, in the sense that at 0-0 any side could win. Reality they had one shot on target and two off target...it was a good shot and our keeper did what he's paid for.
I’m not saying they deserved to win. But they created about the same as we did. Last minute ref easily could have given a penalty...I mean it wasn’t a pen but still could have been given. Instead we go up the other end and score. I’m delighted but playing like this for the last 15 games won’t be enough and will also send some to sleep. I just want a bit more urgency take the fight to teams rather than so much laboured possession. Boris is right if we’d had a bit less of the ball it may well have been easier to draw Barrow out then hit the space behind them.
Simply untrue. They had one decent chance that was saved by Gilks. We had shots on target that were saved.



Are you asking them to play it around the back, wait for the high press then hit them on the break? Did you see the tactics of Barrow? Baptiste and Santos were in their 18 yard box on numerous occasions from some of the play. They only committed their front 3 for the press all game. We could have passed it between Gilks, Santos and Baptiste in our own 18 yard box all game. Other than giving them corners I can't see how you were going to drag Barrow out from the back.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun Feb 28, 2021 10:36 am

DJBlu wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 10:12 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:15 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:50 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:59 pm
Barrow could quite easily have won today.
Yes, in the sense that at 0-0 any side could win. Reality they had one shot on target and two off target...it was a good shot and our keeper did what he's paid for.
I’m not saying they deserved to win. But they created about the same as we did. Last minute ref easily could have given a penalty...I mean it wasn’t a pen but still could have been given. Instead we go up the other end and score. I’m delighted but playing like this for the last 15 games won’t be enough and will also send some to sleep. I just want a bit more urgency take the fight to teams rather than so much laboured possession. Boris is right if we’d had a bit less of the ball it may well have been easier to draw Barrow out then hit the space behind them.
Simply untrue. They had one decent chance that was saved by Gilks. We had shots on target that were saved.



Are you asking them to play it around the back, wait for the high press then hit them on the break? Did you see the tactics of Barrow? Baptiste and Santos were in their 18 yard box on numerous occasions from some of the play. They only committed their front 3 for the press all game. We could have passed it between Gilks, Santos and Baptiste in our own 18 yard box all game. Other than giving them corners I can't see how you were going to drag Barrow out from the back.
The official stats recorded it as one clear cut chance a piece. I could go with that although Doyle should have scored still for me so I’d have that one as clear cut on top of our goal. But up until we scored Barrow had the best chance of the game. And Barrow aren’t very good.

Yesterday isn’t a model for us. It was a win that we ground out and clean sheets are imperative. But we need to do more than we did. Press harder and up the tempo. But I’m sure we will do that because other teams will be far harder challenges.

What I’m asking for is more situations like our goal where we get two or three in the box and get it in there from different angles. Sure we might do that and have only 60% possession but putting more crosses into the box earlier with more bodies in there will result in more chances against a team like Barrow insistent on defending their box. I suppose we’d have got more delivery if Jones beat the first man more. But above and beyond that we have to play at a higher tempo for me the period we did in the first half it looked a matter of time but we did it for ten minutes then stopped. I realise you can’t do that for 90 but absolutely we could press teams and move it quicker more than we did.

We’ve got the players to not fear any fixture. I honestly think we could win the last 15 games. All of them. We obviously won’t but that should be the mindset. I’d just have loved more impetus yesterday. Score a goal and the game is completely different. Then we could have slowed it down and forced them out.

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