Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

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Worthy4England
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Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:05 am

Last game in Feb. Made it far too easy on an atrocious night for them to go 3-up, but fought back for a draw, in one of those games that leaves you delighted we bagged a point but frustrated we didn't start until it was all uphill, just a few minutes in.

Hoping for better, this go.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:21 am

Just keep winning. Simple as that. Don't care how. We've hit upon the ability to not concede so many and keep that going and I think we've actually got a chance of turning this horrid season into something beautiful. Make Bolton great again and all that....

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:38 am

They won at Oldham in midweek with an 89th-minute Scott Quigley goal, after four straight losses. In total they've got 26pts from 28 games, 10pts from 14 away – and nine of those 10pts have come at Oldham, Port Vale and Mansfield, currently 17th, 18th and 19th.

Replacing Evatt has not been easy. David Dunn won two of his 22 games and was flicked a fortnight before Christmas; Michael Jolley, a "chief coach under Phoenix" contender, was given a 2.5-yr contract but sacked seven games (and one win) later. Rob Kelly is now in temporary charge for the rest of the Bluebirds' first League season in half a century.

Nothing less than a win - not even another Cumbrian comeback from two, three or four down - will do. We need to maintain momentum into a March which is more challenging, but not insurmountable: we play Oldham (currently 17th), Bradford (11th), Cambridge (1st), Vale (18th), Walsall (15th) and FGR (2nd), so only two of the six are currently above us. It's a fluid division and tightly packed – 7pts between 10th and (automatic) 3rd - so while others have games in hand, they won't get the chance to play them until after our first four games in March. Hopefully by then we'll be very firmly in the promotion picture – but that requires us to win games like this.

TL;DR – what BWFCi said :mrgreen:

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:05 am

Agree DSB. What's happened now has opened the door ajar, somewhat. What happens next, is what's important. Bizarrely enough, we struggled more, first time around against Vale (18th), than we did against Cambridge (1st) and FGR (2nd). There isn't anyone in this Division, including us, that are "unbeatable" - Cambridge have lost one game less than us, so we've got ourselves to "there or thereabouts" and now need to maintain and continue our results improvement.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by The_Gun » Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:29 am

If we play for 90 minutes like we did in the first half on Tuesday then I would expect to take all three points at the weekend. However, you would guess that Barrow will have analysed Tuesday's game and won't make the same mistake Scunthorpe did of sitting deep and allowing us to come on to them.

I'd expect Lee to come in for Thomason, and I'd personally also swap Dapo out for Sarce. Isgrove did well against Scunny, but there would also be an argument for giving Maddison another chance from the start, so I wouldn't be against making that swap.

2-0 Bolton.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:44 pm

Not sure whether Scunny sitting deep was what they do generally or a specific tactic for us – "Let them have it and fanny about with it in areas that don't hurt us," which would be fair enough given how we've played earlier in the season. Happy to see that we turned possession into penetration, although I still think we can get better.

It's also interesting to wonder to what extent "Barrow will know Evatt" - they're on their third manager since, most of the skeletal backroom staff came with him, and I'm guessing there's been quite a bit of player churn too.


Worthy - agreed that this is a very wide-open division, just that league positions are a reasonable indication of clout.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:55 pm

For all our penetration and possession, I think we only managed three shots on target - conversion rate was pretty good though.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:05 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:55 pm
For all our penetration and possession, I think we only managed three shots on target - conversion rate was pretty good though.
Indeed, in these last three wins we've had 2, 3 and 3 shots on target – totalling 8, which is how many we managed in one game against Port Vale...

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:21 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:05 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:55 pm
For all our penetration and possession, I think we only managed three shots on target - conversion rate was pretty good though.
Indeed, in these last three wins we've had 2, 3 and 3 shots on target – totalling 8, which is how many we managed in one game against Port Vale...
We only managed 9 in the 3 games after that - which is pretty comparable.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:01 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:21 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:05 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:55 pm
For all our penetration and possession, I think we only managed three shots on target - conversion rate was pretty good though.
Indeed, in these last three wins we've had 2, 3 and 3 shots on target – totalling 8, which is how many we managed in one game against Port Vale...
We only managed 9 in the 3 games after that - which is pretty comparable.
Yep, the average across all our games (excl Sherpa Van) is 3.53 on target for us, 3.81 for the oppo... yet the average xG (before last night) is 1.26 for us, 1.21 for them... yes, I have a spreadsheet... :D

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:04 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:01 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:21 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:05 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:55 pm
For all our penetration and possession, I think we only managed three shots on target - conversion rate was pretty good though.
Indeed, in these last three wins we've had 2, 3 and 3 shots on target – totalling 8, which is how many we managed in one game against Port Vale...
We only managed 9 in the 3 games after that - which is pretty comparable.
Yep, the average across all our games (excl Sherpa Van) is 3.53 on target for us, 3.81 for the oppo... yet the average xG (before last night) is 1.26 for us, 1.21 for them... yes, I have a spreadsheet... :D
So has it gone down significantly overall since our change of shape? (I'm not too fussed about shots off target - they're winning nobody any games, any time soon) :-)

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by irie Cee Bee » Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:06 pm

Love the analysis. You guys are pretty good. Better than what I see on Sky Sports!!

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:10 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:04 pm
So has it gone down significantly overall since our change of shape? (I'm not too fussed about shots off target - they're winning nobody any games, any time soon) :-)
Nine games since switch to back four vs The last nine games before the switch:
DDLWDWWWW vs WWLLWLDL (better)

Ave possession: 52.6 vs 55.4 (worse)

Ave shots for: 11.6 vs 13.8 (worse)
Ave shots against: 12.6 vs 12.3 (better)

Ave shots on target for: 3.7 vs 4.7 (worse)
Ave shots on target against: 2.8 vs 4.9 (much better)

Ave xG: 1.4 vs 1.6 (slightly worse)
Ave xG against: 1.1 vs 1.3 (slightly better)
.
Screenshot 2021-02-25 at 14.59.37.png
Screenshot 2021-02-25 at 14.59.37.png (296.15 KiB) Viewed 576 times

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by LeverEnd » Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:14 pm

Can you send those Mansfield stats to Nigel please? Just for entertainment.
...

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by LeverEnd » Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:17 pm

Time for Maddison to pull his finger out of his.... headband for this.
The fanboy behaviour on Twitter is becoming nauseating. I don't mind him.going on the field looking like a reet tit in his Derek Zoolander headband if he does something good, so now's the time.
...

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:30 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:10 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:04 pm
So has it gone down significantly overall since our change of shape? (I'm not too fussed about shots off target - they're winning nobody any games, any time soon) :-)
Nine games since switch to back four vs The last nine games before the switch:
DDLWDWWWW vs WWLLWLDL (better)

Ave possession: 52.6 vs 55.4 (worse)

Ave shots for: 11.6 vs 13.8 (worse)
Ave shots against: 12.6 vs 12.3 (better)

Ave shots on target for: 3.7 vs 4.7 (worse)
Ave shots on target against: 2.8 vs 4.9 (much better)

Ave xG: 1.4 vs 1.6 (slightly worse)
Ave xG against: 1.1 vs 1.3 (slightly better)
.
Screenshot 2021-02-25 at 14.59.37.png
Top spreadsheeting DSB. In summary, gained a bit in defence, lost some in attack, gained lots in points but I guess our "luck" factor also increased some. :-)

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Harry Genshaw » Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:39 pm

Barrows goal difference of -6 sets them apart from the 2 sides either side of them, Grimsby and Southend who are -20 odd each. Suggests that nobody has hammered them and they're not far off where they want to be in their first year back.

A hard fought 1-0 win. A long range effort from Madison just to please LE and his fellow twitterati
"Get your feet off the furniture you Oxbridge tw*t. You're not on a feckin punt now you know"

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by officer_dibble » Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:48 pm

I’m not sure Scunthropes tactics first half were that bad - they obviously struggled with pace running at them so they sat deep. If it wasn’t for the penalty (I’ve seen worse not given) then it would have been job done. They were easier to attack against when they came onto us which created a bit of space. They contained Dapos wandering possibly through a man marking job. Couldn’t really tell on iFollow but he was very quiet. Probably fancied their chances off a set piece. If I was Barrow I would do something similar.

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by LeverEnd » Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:55 pm

Harry Genshaw wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:39 pm
Barrows goal difference of -6 sets them apart from the 2 sides either side of them, Grimsby and Southend who are -20 odd each. Suggests that nobody has hammered them and they're not far off where they want to be in their first year back.

A hard fought 1-0 win. A long range effort from Madison just to please LE and his fellow twitterati
It would please me greatly.
Especially if someone nicked and hid that daft headband during the celebration pile-on.
...

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Re: Will the wheel drop off? Barrow (h) 27/02/21 15:00

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:22 pm

Evatt said in the afters that Dapo had been moved to the No10 position; I hope this isn't why he had his quietest game yet. Still, Sarce is up for that role too.

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