Remaining fixtures

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Mar » Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:54 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:20 pm
Still feels a bit of a baby out with the bathwater conversation at the moment. We keep harking back to Colchester as the "need to make changes because" reason, despite the long unbeaten run that was a part of what went previous...yes the performance was much better against Newport and we can probably feel aggrieved that we didn't win, but that wasn't the fault of the system, that was down to the inability of individuals to convert gilt edged chances. Sure, if it continues, then there's something to address. If we win our next two, it'll be largely forgotten, until the next time there's a sub-par.

Sub-par could also occur "moving it fast from front to back."
This sums it up quite well. One below par performance and another I think we can count ourselves unfortunate. We created plenty of chances in the last match to give us plenty of proof the system works. In both matches we had a goal ruled out for offside so we're looking at fine margins. The complexion of our season had we won those two matches would be much better had we won those matches and we'd probably be talking about winning the league. There's no reason to change things or make Maddison the new key player to build the squad around. Performances have been good, lets stick with it and hope we get what we deserve at the end of the season.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Prufrock » Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:32 pm

We've also conceded 4 goals in 11 games. Don't concede and you can't lose. Don't give them the ball and they can't score. The big switch might open teams up but get it wrong and you are much easier to hit on the break. Forest Greens two best chances came intercepting attempted switches from Thomason. The way we play we give it away in "predictable" areas where we have players to counter-press. And where we're set with Williams filling in at the back. Giving the ball away with the full backs ahead of the ball is always a risk you want to minimise.

I'm pretty happy with whatever we've been doing since Jan. Sure you want to cut through everytime you attack, but while we haven't managed it as long spells as we'd all like, some of the football has been great. Cambridge at home was excellent. But, you know, there's another team playing.
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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:10 am

Prufrock wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:32 pm
We've also conceded 4 goals in 11 games. Don't concede and you can't lose. Don't give them the ball and they can't score. The big switch might open teams up but get it wrong and you are much easier to hit on the break. Forest Greens two best chances came intercepting attempted switches from Thomason. The way we play we give it away in "predictable" areas where we have players to counter-press. And where we're set with Williams filling in at the back. Giving the ball away with the full backs ahead of the ball is always a risk you want to minimise.

I'm pretty happy with whatever we've been doing since Jan. Sure you want to cut through everytime you attack, but while we haven't managed it as long spells as we'd all like, some of the football has been great. Cambridge at home was excellent. But, you know, there's another team playing.
Well yes we don’t score many and don’t concede many. It’s not all that different to the run in under Parky in that respect. I guess my argument is we need to take more risks if we want to go up. I don’t believe we will grind better teams down and Newport showed us that even when we play well and create lots there is always a chance of a sucker punch and a good side who are starved of the ball but comfortable in their ‘low block’ will potentially pick us off in similar fashion.

I’m not talking about ripping everything up. But playing with more urgency and more purpose. If that means losing a little possession I actually think that would be beneficial to us in those home games at times.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:15 am

Prufrock wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:32 pm
We've also conceded 4 goals in 11 games. Don't concede and you can't lose. Don't give them the ball and they can't score. The big switch might open teams up but get it wrong and you are much easier to hit on the break. Forest Greens two best chances came intercepting attempted switches from Thomason. The way we play we give it away in "predictable" areas where we have players to counter-press. And where we're set with Williams filling in at the back. Giving the ball away with the full backs ahead of the ball is always a risk you want to minimise.

I'm pretty happy with whatever we've been doing since Jan. Sure you want to cut through everytime you attack, but while we haven't managed it as long spells as we'd all like, some of the football has been great. Cambridge at home was excellent. But, you know, there's another team playing.
Fair points as ever, except that FGR weren’t playing a low block.

As Evatt has noted with picking sub goalkeepers: Risk-reward, innit. Only in nightmares can I see us finishing below 7th, so there may come a time when we need to chase a win even if it marginally increases the chance of losing.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Prufrock » Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:42 am

They were both at times when they had 10 or 11 behind the ball so I think that's still the risk.

And you're right that's it's risk v reward but I'm not sure the balance comes out in favour that way. Firstly, we do try those. Thomason has that in him, and Santos tries it 4 or 5 times a game, they hit it when it's on and it keeps the other side's full backs honest when we spot them cheating by getting super narrow. Obviously the risk of giving it away and getting hit on the break goes up massively the wider their defenders are. Again, there are two teams on the pitch.

Secondly, part of the reward of the way we play is tiring out the other side. It's far more tiring without the ball than with it. It's no coincidence we've scored so many late goals.

I mean, again, the way we've played since January would have us miles clear at the top over a season. Of course Eeyore is convinced it'll all fall apart, but if we don't go up it will be because of the first half of the season, not this. And let's not forget we were two marginal offside calls, widths of the crossbar, mad goalline scramble and Kieran Lee's head falling off away from getting 6 points last weekend and being favourites for the title. I know you should always be trying to improve and I'm sure we are but I'd be much more wary of step changes at this point ruining the best side in the league by far.
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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:53 am

Prufrock wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:42 am
They were both at times when they had 10 or 11 behind the ball so I think that's still the risk.

And you're right that's it's risk v reward but I'm not sure the balance comes out in favour that way. Firstly, we do try those. Thomason has that in him, and Santos tries it 4 or 5 times a game, they hit it when it's on and it keeps the other side's full backs honest when we spot them cheating by getting super narrow. Obviously the risk of giving it away and getting hit on the break goes up massively the wider their defenders are. Again, there are two teams on the pitch.

Secondly, part of the reward of the way we play is tiring out the other side. It's far more tiring without the ball than with it. It's no coincidence we've scored so many late goals.

I mean, again, the way we've played since January would have us miles clear at the top over a season. Of course Eeyore is convinced it'll all fall apart, but if we don't go up it will be because of the first half of the season, not this. And let's not forget we were two marginal offside calls, widths of the crossbar, mad goalline scramble and Kieran Lee's head falling off away from getting 6 points last weekend and being favourites for the title. I know you should always be trying to improve and I'm sure we are but I'd be much more wary of step changes at this point ruining the best side in the league by far.
This thing about tiring a side out. A well drilled side in a low block shouldn’t tire. I heavily dispute late goals are anything other than sides mentally switching off. Which of course is potentially more likely if we have so much of the ball but I don’t think it’s a sustainable method to try and win games with.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by TANGODANCER » Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:47 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:53 am

This thing about tiring a side out. A well drilled side in a low block shouldn’t tire. I heavily dispute late goals are anything other than sides mentally switching off. Which of course is potentially more likely if we have so much of the ball but I don’t think it’s a sustainable method to try and win games with.
Just where in all this Meccano set method football does skill, luck, friendly/unfriendly officials, players just feeing a little off or below par, a player of either side having a purple patch in a game or pure,freak accidents, have a place? If it were all so predictable and organised, why play at all? It's still all about one team scoring one goal more than the other whether you're Barsareopen 1 or Bras-nil. On with the motley.... :wink:
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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:50 am

Reverting from the tactical chat to the fixtures: Newport's draw last night means they've now only won one in five (W1 D1 L3), against Muggins here, thanks to the crossbar and Kieran's kurious misses.

As I said, it wasn't the fixture for which I held the most hope of a favourable result - that'd be Vale v Morecambe and possibly Orient at Cheltenham - but it shows once more that nobody's exactly flying (and if they are, it's us).

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:59 am

TANGODANCER wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:47 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:53 am

This thing about tiring a side out. A well drilled side in a low block shouldn’t tire. I heavily dispute late goals are anything other than sides mentally switching off. Which of course is potentially more likely if we have so much of the ball but I don’t think it’s a sustainable method to try and win games with.
Just where in all this Meccano set method football does skill, luck, friendly/unfriendly officials, players just feeing a little off or below par, a player of either side having a purple patch in a game or pure,freak accidents, have a place? If it were all so predictable and organised, why play at all? It's still all about one team scoring one goal more than the other whether you're Barsareopen 1 or Bras-nil. On with the motley.... :wink:
Tango I agree - which is why I’d like us to show more urgency put the ball into the box more. Because in all the randomness of football you’ve outlined you are still more likely to score in their box than passing it along your own back line.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Prufrock » Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:28 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:53 am
Prufrock wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:42 am
They were both at times when they had 10 or 11 behind the ball so I think that's still the risk.

And you're right that's it's risk v reward but I'm not sure the balance comes out in favour that way. Firstly, we do try those. Thomason has that in him, and Santos tries it 4 or 5 times a game, they hit it when it's on and it keeps the other side's full backs honest when we spot them cheating by getting super narrow. Obviously the risk of giving it away and getting hit on the break goes up massively the wider their defenders are. Again, there are two teams on the pitch.

Secondly, part of the reward of the way we play is tiring out the other side. It's far more tiring without the ball than with it. It's no coincidence we've scored so many late goals.

I mean, again, the way we've played since January would have us miles clear at the top over a season. Of course Eeyore is convinced it'll all fall apart, but if we don't go up it will be because of the first half of the season, not this. And let's not forget we were two marginal offside calls, widths of the crossbar, mad goalline scramble and Kieran Lee's head falling off away from getting 6 points last weekend and being favourites for the title. I know you should always be trying to improve and I'm sure we are but I'd be much more wary of step changes at this point ruining the best side in the league by far.
This thing about tiring a side out. A well drilled side in a low block shouldn’t tire. I heavily dispute late goals are anything other than sides mentally switching off. Which of course is potentially more likely if we have so much of the ball but I don’t think it’s a sustainable method to try and win games with.
You can be as heavily wrong as you like :D Mental and physical fatigue are obviously linked. No-one is suggesting we expect them to be out on their feet, but 85 mins of chasing the ball means you're that split second slower to close down, you spot the run that split second later and that adds up to make a chance that wouldn't have happened earlier in the game.

Either way that's a proxy argument though. The facts are we have the highest average possession in the division, and we've scored the highest number of goals in the last 15 mins. Those stats are all season, but I'd bet you a penny to a pound that they are even more skewed that way since Jan. It's seems pretty obvious to me that those things are causative (whether it's tiredness, loss of concentration, whatever, it's not luck IMO).

The other point I would make is this, you've spent the last 15 years or so (Christ!) telling all the tippy-tappy lot that all that you care about is winning football and it doesn't matter if it's not great to watch. I actually think you prefer watching the direct stuff (which is fair enough) but you just can't argue with the results. We've been the best team in this league, by miles, for over 1/3 of a season (and essentially 100% of the time this group have been together).

Of course we can always improve, and we all have views on how that can happen, but I'm not sure there is any real difference in you saying you think this group of players, recruited to play certain style, would get even better results that the insane ones they're already getting by changing that style, and the people way-back-when saying they thought Gavin McCann and Joey O'Brien could in fact get it down and play through the lines.
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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:58 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:28 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:53 am
Prufrock wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:42 am
They were both at times when they had 10 or 11 behind the ball so I think that's still the risk.

And you're right that's it's risk v reward but I'm not sure the balance comes out in favour that way. Firstly, we do try those. Thomason has that in him, and Santos tries it 4 or 5 times a game, they hit it when it's on and it keeps the other side's full backs honest when we spot them cheating by getting super narrow. Obviously the risk of giving it away and getting hit on the break goes up massively the wider their defenders are. Again, there are two teams on the pitch.

Secondly, part of the reward of the way we play is tiring out the other side. It's far more tiring without the ball than with it. It's no coincidence we've scored so many late goals.

I mean, again, the way we've played since January would have us miles clear at the top over a season. Of course Eeyore is convinced it'll all fall apart, but if we don't go up it will be because of the first half of the season, not this. And let's not forget we were two marginal offside calls, widths of the crossbar, mad goalline scramble and Kieran Lee's head falling off away from getting 6 points last weekend and being favourites for the title. I know you should always be trying to improve and I'm sure we are but I'd be much more wary of step changes at this point ruining the best side in the league by far.
This thing about tiring a side out. A well drilled side in a low block shouldn’t tire. I heavily dispute late goals are anything other than sides mentally switching off. Which of course is potentially more likely if we have so much of the ball but I don’t think it’s a sustainable method to try and win games with.
You can be as heavily wrong as you like :D Mental and physical fatigue are obviously linked. No-one is suggesting we expect them to be out on their feet, but 85 mins of chasing the ball means you're that split second slower to close down, you spot the run that split second later and that adds up to make a chance that wouldn't have happened earlier in the game.

Either way that's a proxy argument though. The facts are we have the highest average possession in the division, and we've scored the highest number of goals in the last 15 mins. Those stats are all season, but I'd bet you a penny to a pound that they are even more skewed that way since Jan. It's seems pretty obvious to me that those things are causative (whether it's tiredness, loss of concentration, whatever, it's not luck IMO).

The other point I would make is this, you've spent the last 15 years or so (Christ!) telling all the tippy-tappy lot that all that you care about is winning football and it doesn't matter if it's not great to watch. I actually think you prefer watching the direct stuff (which is fair enough) but you just can't argue with the results. We've been the best team in this league, by miles, for over 1/3 of a season (and essentially 100% of the time this group have been together).

Of course we can always improve, and we all have views on how that can happen, but I'm not sure there is any real difference in you saying you think this group of players, recruited to play certain style, would get even better results that the insane ones they're already getting by changing that style, and the people way-back-when saying they thought Gavin McCann and Joey O'Brien could in fact get it down and play through the lines.

We’ve got the best group of players in this league by a mile. Yet play with the handbrake on and scrape through in games. We should go up without too much trouble in my view with these players. But the lack of intensity in some games and our seeming desire to keep the ball over create chances is something I’ve noted a while ago may cost us. Your thesis is that in the run in it’s ok to just carry on as we are mine is we need to play with greater urgency. Either way I think it would be poor if we don’t go up considering the quality we’ve had available.

Also I’m not asking for us to change style just to play with more intensity and a desire to go and score goals.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Bertie Wooster » Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:05 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:58 pm
We’ve got the best group of players in this league by a mile. Yet play with the handbrake on and scrape through in games. We should go up without too much trouble in my view with these players. But the lack of intensity in some games and our seeming desire to keep the ball over create chances is something I’ve noted a while ago may cost us. Your thesis is that in the run in it’s ok to just carry on as we are mine is we need to play with greater urgency. Either way I think it would be poor if we don’t go up considering the quality we’ve had available.

Also I’m not asking for us to change style just to play with more intensity and a desire to go and score goals.
Absolutely spot on this, I agree with everything BWFCI says.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by TANGODANCER » Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:37 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:58 pm


Also I’m not asking for us to change style just to play with more intensity and a desire to go and score goals.
On that one,my friend, the whole of world football agrees with you. Half of them will probably be disappointed; let's hope we are in the other half. :wink:
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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Mar » Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:15 pm

Bertie Wooster wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:05 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:58 pm
We’ve got the best group of players in this league by a mile. Yet play with the handbrake on and scrape through in games. We should go up without too much trouble in my view with these players. But the lack of intensity in some games and our seeming desire to keep the ball over create chances is something I’ve noted a while ago may cost us. Your thesis is that in the run in it’s ok to just carry on as we are mine is we need to play with greater urgency. Either way I think it would be poor if we don’t go up considering the quality we’ve had available.

Also I’m not asking for us to change style just to play with more intensity and a desire to go and score goals.
Absolutely spot on this, I agree with everything BWFCI says.
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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sat Apr 10, 2021 6:32 pm

Another happy bunch of results. Cheltenham won but Cambridge, Morecambe, Newport and FGR all lost and Tranmere only drew. Oh and we won.
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sat eve.jpeg
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And so to Tuesday's games in hand...

We go to Salford
Tranmere go to Walsall (who beat FGR today)
Morecambe host Scunny
Newport host Carilsle.

Cheltenham, Cambridge and FGR don't play.

If results go with us, we might be 2pts off the top and 5pts above 4th... if they go against, it's back down to 4th.

Oh what a circus, oh what a show..

...and here's the updated figures on if recent form is extrapolated over the remaining fixtures. We may be limping, but as per the Polish writer Stanisław Jerzy Lec, "he who limps is still walking" – and others appear to be nose-down in the dirt.
.
Screenshot 2021-04-10 at 18.20.00.png
Screenshot 2021-04-10 at 18.20.00.png (76.47 KiB) Viewed 1152 times

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by TANGODANCER » Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:02 am

The reality of our current achievements can only be seen in perspective if we go back 14 games. The best rose-tinted glasses ever made could hardly have forecast this, back then. Add the hard-times era pre-this season and I'd be getting a fourth Manager of the Month trophy ready for Ian Evatt, and Doyle's goal tally must surely get him an award.
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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:31 pm

^^ Not being critical of Eoin, but his tally is 4th in the Division, everyone is a long way behind Mullins at Cambridge...

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by irie Cee Bee » Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:11 pm

Closing the gap to the top nicely. Previously 7 points from 7 games to go. Now down to 5 from 6 games to go. Can we do it??!! The greatest comeback chase to the top is on.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by knobpolisher » Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:20 pm

Not really bothered about the top, IMHO with 6 remaining third place is between us and tranmere.
4 wins would mean tranmere requiring 5 wins to pass us. Even 3 wins and a draw would put us on 77 with tranmere needing 4 wins and a draw.
For tranmere the games are running out if we stay focused and keep whatever impetus and luck we have they won't catch us - end of.
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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by TANGODANCER » Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:39 pm

knobpolisher wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:20 pm
Not really bothered about the top, IMHO with 6 remaining third place is between us and tranmere.
4 wins would mean tranmere requiring 5 wins to pass us. Even 3 wins and a draw would put us on 77 with tranmere needing 4 wins and a draw.
For tranmere the games are running out if we stay focused and keep whatever impetus and luck we have they won't catch us - end of.
"Every game a cup final" was never so true as now for us. We may never get in this position in a league for a fair old while. I've seen us win the F.A.Cup,( 1958) our promotions and our brilliant spells in the EUFA,.... and also the down sides of it all. This is our time, so we need focus, belief and maybe a little luck. We'll never get a better chance. COME ON YOU WHITES.... :oyea:
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