Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:40 pm

The following Saturday it's Morecambe v Cheltenham, Salford v Exeter and of course Forest Green v Bolton

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by Worthy4England » Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:42 pm

^^ Don't confuse me anymore than I am. :-)

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by TANGODANCER » Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:45 pm

I'm absolutely chuffingly chuffed, (doubly so by just seeing England beat France with a last minute try in the Six Nations Rugby. But even that takes second place to a Whites win.) Get in........ Obvious now that Vale's new manager has done his homework and intended to bully us physically. We were up to it, won, got the vital goal and the three precious points.
:oyea: :oyea: :oyea:
Si Deus pro nobis, quis contra nos?

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by DJBlu » Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:08 pm

Might be wrong but I hear Santos took the armband when Doyle went off.

Any truth? If so then I think that's one hell of a transformation from the start of the season.

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by officer_dibble » Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:16 pm

That’s correct. Doyle knew who was getting it. He’s fecking ace, can’t wait for him to score!

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by Worthy4England » Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:52 pm

Yup, deffo Santos. I'm hearing Sarce has done hamstring...not sure how reliable though.

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by DJBlu » Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:12 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:52 pm
Yup, deffo Santos. I'm hearing Sarce has done hamstring...not sure how reliable though.
Confirmed by Evatt in his interview with iFollow.

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by LeverEnd » Sat Mar 13, 2021 9:49 pm

nelson66 wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:37 pm
The owner of my local African food store also doubles as the local witch doctor.
I have presented him with my finest bird, and asked him to do his Ju Ju
He's just examined the Cockerels entrails - I am happy to report

WE ARE GOING UP - I SAY WE ARE GOING UP
WE ARE GOING UP - I SAY WE ARE GOING UP
WE ARE GOING UP - I SAY WE ARE GOING UP
WE ARE GOING UP - I SAY WE ARE GOING UP
WE ARE GOING UP - I SAY WE ARE GOING UP
WE ARE GOING UP - I SAY WE ARE GOING UP
WE ARE GOING UP - I SAY WE ARE GOING UP
WE ARE GOING UP - I SAY WE ARE GOING UP
WE ARE GOING UP - I SAY WE ARE GOING UP
WE ARE GOING UP - I SAY WE ARE GOING UP
WE ARE GOING UP - I SAY WE ARE GOING UP
WE ARE GOING UP - I SAY WE ARE GOING UP
This concerns me slightly, but it's a relief to know promotion is in the bag.
...

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Mar 14, 2021 11:08 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:42 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:40 pm
The following Saturday it's Morecambe v Cheltenham, Salford v Exeter and of course Forest Green v Bolton
Don't confuse me anymore than I am. :-)
OK, then I shan't tell you that the following weekend is Easter, which includes Cheltenham-Tranmere and Cambridge-Morecambe on Good Friday plus Tranmere-Cambridge, FGR-Salford and Newport-Bolton on Easter Monday.

I shall also refrain from revealing that there's at least one game between top-10 teams in each of the 11 full 'rounds' yet to play.

And I will certainly not go into how we are the only top-10 team with more than half of our remaining fixtures (6 out of 11) against said top-10 teams, that Morecambe have the fewest six-pointers with 3 out of 11, or that games-in-hand outsiders Crawley now have 8 successive games against non-top-10 teams but finish by playing 4 of the current top 6 in their final 5 games.

Nor will I even begin to speculate on the potential influence upon proceedings of drop-dodgers Grimsby and Barrow, who each play 7 of the current top 10, or seemingly irrelevant teams like Walsall and Colchester, who each play 6 of them (with Walsall hosting 4 of them in the final 5 weeks).

That would all be far too much to take in on a Sunday morning.

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Mar 14, 2021 12:16 pm

Thanks, I think! :-)

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by bw@bw » Sun Mar 14, 2021 12:38 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 11:08 am
Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:42 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:40 pm
The following Saturday it's Morecambe v Cheltenham, Salford v Exeter and of course Forest Green v Bolton
Don't confuse me anymore than I am. :-)
OK, then I shan't tell you that the following weekend is Easter, which includes Cheltenham-Tranmere and Cambridge-Morecambe on Good Friday plus Tranmere-Cambridge, FGR-Salford and Newport-Bolton on Easter Monday.

I shall also refrain from revealing that there's at least one game between top-10 teams in each of the 11 full 'rounds' yet to play.

And I will certainly not go into how we are the only top-10 team with more than half of our remaining fixtures (6 out of 11) against said top-10 teams, that Morecambe have the fewest six-pointers with 3 out of 11, or that games-in-hand outsiders Crawley now have 8 successive games against non-top-10 teams but finish by playing 4 of the current top 6 in their final 5 games.

Nor will I even begin to speculate on the potential influence upon proceedings of drop-dodgers Grimsby and Barrow, who each play 7 of the current top 10, or seemingly irrelevant teams like Walsall and Colchester, who each play 6 of them (with Walsall hosting 4 of them in the final 5 weeks).

That would all be far too much to take in on a Sunday morning.
So maybe what we need - apart from us keep winning of course - is for 2 teams (say Cheltenham and Cambridge) to also go on a winning run and beat several other top 10 teams.
All the other 6 pointers can be draws - leaving us comfortably in the automatic promotion spot
What goes around may still come around

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Mar 14, 2021 1:56 pm

bw@bw wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 12:38 pm
So maybe what we need - apart from us keep winning of course - is for 2 teams (say Cheltenham and Cambridge) to also go on a winning run and beat several other top 10 teams.
All the other 6 pointers can be draws - leaving us comfortably in the automatic promotion spot
Reasonable idea but I'm not sure about Cambridge, and not just because we looked a league above them Tuesday. They can't seem to put two wins together, and five of their next six are against top-ten teams (the other being Carlisle). They've also played two more than Cheltenham and FGR (and one more than us). They have a reasonable run-in – Orient, Stevenage, Harrogate, Grimsby – but it depends if the wheels are off their wagon by then.

All the top six, plus Exeter and Salford, have got to play either five or six "six-pointers" so pretty much everyone has their destiny in their own hands.

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by officer_dibble » Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:42 pm

I think what we need to do is keep winning! Feels like we can cope with one defeat / a couple of draws to be there or thereabouts for automatics (86 points) but even 80 could do it this year. It’s exciting and a nice exciting given the shit of the last ten years.

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:45 pm

officer_dibble wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:42 pm
I think what we need to do is keep winning!
For sure. When we're on a winning run, facing the top teams is a good thing - giving us the chance to spike their guns. While those games have a lot riding on them, right now, I feel confident we can win them.
officer_dibble wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:42 pm
Feels like we can cope with one defeat / a couple of draws to be there or thereabouts for automatics (86 points) but even 80 could do it this year. It’s exciting and a nice exciting given the shit of the last ten years.
Interesting you mention 80pts. If you take the top teams' season-long PPG and project over 46 games, you get Cheltenham on 83.9pts, FGR on 82.5 and then Tranmere on 79.5; Cambridge (77.9) and Newport (77.1) join us (74.9) and Exeter (73.9), who just pip Morecambe to the last place.

Of course, it's not as simple as that, but again – right now, the automatic pace is 80pts, and I wouldn't be surprised if adding teams' current form to the right-now table might even tweak that down a bit. Again, all that could change, but winning keeps us on the right side of the maths.
officer_dibble wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:42 pm
It’s exciting and a nice exciting given the shit of the last ten years.
Amen to that, brother.

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Mar 14, 2021 7:46 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:45 pm
[...]right now, the automatic pace is 80pts, and I wouldn't be surprised if adding teams' current form to the right-now table might even tweak that down a bit.
I was wrong. Depending on where you cut "form" - last 6, 8, 10 or 12 - the pace for third place is between 81 and 85 points.

We're obviously on great form, and top all four of those form tables - that's what happens when you win. And there are top-ten teams on demonstrably bad form: Salford are between 12th and 14th on each of those tables, while Cambridge have slumped down there in the last 10 games. But there are teams ticking along at 2ppg or thereabouts, notably the three directly above us – Tranmere, Newport and FGR.

So I did the maths (or rather, I did a spreadsheet which did it for me: why keep a dog and bark yourself?).

LAST-SIX FORM
If you take the top ten teams, calculate their last-six PPG and multiply that by the number of games they have left, you get:

92.0 CHELTENHAM
86.3 BOLTON
85.2 TRANMERE
-------------------
83.0 NEWPORT
81.0 FOREST GREEN
76.0 CAMBRIDGE
76.0 CRAWLEY
-------------------
74.7 EXETER
74.3 MORECAMBE
63.0 SALFORD

Cambridge almost drop out of the playoffs (and Crawley sneak in), and it looks like a three-way last-day bunfight for the two spots behind Cheltenham.


LAST-EIGHT FORM
89.0 CHELTENHAM
87.3 BOLTON
85.0 FOREST GREEN
-------------------
83.0 TRANMERE
78.0 NEWPORT
77.3 CAMBRIDGE
75.8 EXETER
-------------------
74.4 CRAWLEY
73.9 MORECAMBE
69.5 SALFORD

Slightly more comfortable with a 4.3 gap over fourth-placed - oh, happy day - Tranmere. Also means we get to go to FGR next season, which is fine by me.


LAST-TEN FORM
88.4 CHELTENHAM
85.6 TRANMERE
85.6 BOLTON
-------------------
85.0 FOREST GREEN
77.4 NEWPORT
77.0 CAMBRIDGE
75.1 EXETER
-------------------
72.5 MORECAMBE
70.8 CRAWLEY
66.9 SALFORD

Keith Hill flicks the Vs at Sharron, but she doesn't care as our last-day win at Crawley keeps Forest Green at bay by (checks notes) 0.6 points.


LAST-TWELVE FORM
I mean at this point "form" is a quarter of the season, but SoccerStats provided the numbers so it seems rude not to use them.

88.0 CHELTENHAM
87.3 TRANMERE
83.6 BOLTON
-------------------
80.2 FOREST GREEN
77.7 CAMBRIDGE
74.7 EXETER
74.0 NEWPORT
-------------------
72.5 MORECAMBE
70.6 CRAWLEY
68.4 SALFORD

Dare I say a more comfortable last day? I think I do - we are after all only discussing extrapolated hypotheticals.

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by Mar » Sun Mar 14, 2021 9:54 pm

Cheers for those DSB. Definitely makes interesting reading.

I think the best we can hope for is middling form from the teams above us whilst keeping up our decent form. I'd personally hope we make a late rally for the title, or at least put ourselves in contention for it, our current form suggests that could be a possibility but that would very much require the top teams to drop off and that is as much a possibility for us than for the rest.

The success of Keith Hill at Tranmere certainly suggests that he was a good appointment by Sharon Brittan, although I'd be hard pressed to understand why he'd get hired after seeing those sort of interviews. Seems like we're in a miles better place with Evatt now than Hill's season, even though I'd suspect that wasn't all of Hill's making. Either way it looks more favourably on Sharon Brittan.


Might be getting a bit carried away here but here's our stats (according to Wikipedia):

Most consecutive games with scoring: 24 (1888-89 & 1996-97 season)
Current consecutive games with scoring: 14

10 more would take us to Exeter on the penultimate day of the season, with a record breaking final day of the season. How satisfying would that be!


Most consecutive games without losing: 23 (1990-91)
Current consecutive games without losing: 14

9 more would take us to the away fixture at Morecambe, we could theoretically break this record on the penultimate day of the season. The most recent 16 game streak without losing was in the 1996-98 seasons when we were promoted to the premiership, which would be bettered against Colchester (should we keep this run of form going).



Most consecutive away games without losing: 11 (1904-05)
Current consecutive away games without losing: 5

We could match this record on the final day of the season away at Crawley should we keep up our good run of form.



Most goals in a season from a player: 38 (1920-21)
Current goals in a season from a player: 14

24 goals is too unrealistic.
Its nice that Doyle's beat our long standing 12 goal record since 2003, next one to beat is Ricketts' 15 tally from 2001-02 and then 24 from promotion campaign in 2000-01). I'd put money on Doyle beating the 15 goal mark but an extra 10 goals is asking a bit much given that we have only 11 fixtures left.

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by officer_dibble » Sun Mar 14, 2021 9:58 pm

There’s no way we are having a last day with nowt on it I reckon. Either a scrap for a play off berth or a promotion spot. Probably in the mix of a few teams. Gonna be a belter, let’s hope it’s more Notts Forest and Preston than Stoke and Chelsea!

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by Worthy4England » Tue Mar 16, 2021 4:02 pm

Nowhere else to put this, so here'll do. Tonight might be the first time in yonks where I peek at other teams scores and results through the evening...

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by Montreal Wanderer » Tue Mar 16, 2021 4:31 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Tue Mar 16, 2021 4:02 pm
Nowhere else to put this, so here'll do. Tonight might be the first time in yonks where I peek at other teams scores and results through the evening...
Bound to have a negative effect I fear.
"If you cannot answer a man's argument, all it not lost; you can still call him vile names. " Elbert Hubbard.

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by Worthy4England » Tue Mar 16, 2021 5:56 pm

Montreal Wanderer wrote:
Tue Mar 16, 2021 4:31 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Tue Mar 16, 2021 4:02 pm
Nowhere else to put this, so here'll do. Tonight might be the first time in yonks where I peek at other teams scores and results through the evening...
Bound to have a negative effect I fear.
Not going to peek now. I'm not carrying the can!

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