Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by Mar » Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:20 pm

If the teams at the top were to win all the fixtures they had to catch up to 35 games mark (not considering playing each other) then the table would like the following:

64 Forest Green Rovers
63 Tranmere Rovers
62 Cheltenham
61 Cambridge
59 Exeter
57 Newport
57 Bolton
56 Morecambe


Which would leave us 7 points off which isn't unreasonable.

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:27 pm

Mar wrote:
Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:20 pm
If the teams at the top were to win all the fixtures they had to catch up to 35 games mark (not considering playing each other) then the table would like the following:

64 Forest Green Rovers
63 Tranmere Rovers
62 Cheltenham
61 Cambridge
59 Exeter
57 Newport
57 Bolton
56 Morecambe


Which would leave us 7 points off which isn't unreasonable.
It's certainly not an irreconcilable gap (and note that we would be 7th, therefore in the playoffs). However, by that yardstick Carlisle would be above us (57pts, better GD). But, and it's a big but, Carlisle are on woeful form. Winning games in hand presumes a form pace of 3ppg, and there's only us, Tranmere, Newport and Cheltenham who are even close to 2ppg - and the latter two lost last night...

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Re: Ask not for whom the bell tolls.....Port Vale A. Sat 13-03-21. 1500h.

Post by Mar » Thu Mar 18, 2021 9:45 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:27 pm
It's certainly not an irreconcilable gap (and note that we would be 7th, therefore in the playoffs). However, by that yardstick Carlisle would be above us (57pts, better GD). But, and it's a big but, Carlisle are on woeful form. Winning games in hand presumes a form pace of 3ppg, and there's only us, Tranmere, Newport and Cheltenham who are even close to 2ppg - and the latter two lost last night...

Indeed, forgot about Carlisle having 3 games remaining. Here's an updated table to indicate what it would like if everyone was on 35 games played, now including Carlisle and taking into account Tranmere's 0-0 draw last night.

64 Forest Green Rovers
62 Cheltenham
61 Cambridge (played 36)
61 Tranmere Rovers
59 Exeter
57 Carlisle
57 Newport
57 Bolton
56 Morecambe
54 Salford
54 Crawley


We're 5 points off the title as it stands, with worst case scenario being 7 points. We have fixtures against 7 of those that could be considered to be in the mix: FGR, Newport, Carlisle, Morecambe, Salford, Crawley and Exeter. Decent form against the chasing pack should see us securing the playoffs, decent form against the top teams should see us putting in a good automatic challenge.

I'd like to hope that come the last 4 games of the season against Carlisle, Morecambe, Exeter and Crawley, that a few of those teams would've fallen away and will ease up some of the opposition.

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