Meat Dodgers v Fee Doidgers - FGR away, Sat 27/3 live on the tele @ 12pm

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Thanks, DSB. If I've interpreted correctly: we'll shit 'em?

Like the man says:

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Or something like that.

However, you try telling that to insurers.

Per Oddschecker, the bookies seem to have us at 13/8, the draw at 12/5 and FGR at the frankly stupid fractional of 79/40. Reaching back to dusty memories of equivalent fractions I think that makes us 65/40, FGR 79/40 and draw 96/40. Usual caveats apply – those who attract heavy bets have lower odds to reduce the bookies' risk.

I'd rarely be supremely confident going into a match against a team above us, but I'd rarely be going into it with my side on such a vein of form. Had it been only against duff teams I'd be more wary, but that Cambridge performance did a lot of faith-building, and faith is the absence of fear.

By the way, Evatt on playing styles:
https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/1 ... s-revival/

It becomes difficult when you analyse the opposition because they can play a certain way for four or five weeks leading into the game and then throw something very different at you to try and combat what we do. We have to make sure that our players are able to problem solve on the pitch and not leave it until half time for me to tweak things or give them extra information. They have to be doing it from minute one. We are showing them things on the video analysis, on the training ground, and they need to learn quickly because I do think teams are going to show us respect now.

It maybe won’t happen as much with the top teams, like Forest Green, who I think should be going for three points and trying to win games playing their own way. But in the home games, for example, where we will play against sides who are in the lower parts of the table then they may give us something like Walsall and Barrow gave us in recent weeks where they sit deep and play for set pieces, spoil the game and try to hit on the counter, buy fouls, territory and long throws. We have to find solutions for that.

But I think this game on Saturday will be completely different. It will be two attractive teams going all out to win the game.

There's more under that link, including good words for Maddison, but I'd still expect the Isgrove-Dapo-Delf trio behind Doyle rather than a looser cannon like Arthur or Madge.

[The_Gun]

I am getting a little nervous that Maddison is going to start after reading those comments. Evatt also suggesting Sarce might not play again this season!

[Bruce Rioja]

Yeay, I actually get to watch this one downstairs on the big telly

I'm going to stick my neck out here and say that we're going to give 'em a right old helping.

4-0, I fancy.

Think I'll have a bowl of Tyrrell's mature cheddar crisps, a ramekin of dry roasted nuts, some as-of-yet undecided pieces of cheese and a pint of Robinson's Crushed Lime and Mint Cordial diluted with sparkling mineral water.

Living the fecking dream

COYWM!!!!

[TANGODANCER]

A comment/opinion from outer space (sometimes known as Farnworth) : I worry the over expectation of a big match on T.V will have a diverse effect on our ability to just play football. What price bookies odds (bad pun) if we let the hype affect our mental aspect of concentrating on the basics. I even believe Evatt's comments about how the opposition will play are a bit diverting from how we'll play. F.G.R are just another rung on the ladder, let's see them that way. I'm betting F.G.R's manager is the more uptight right now, despite his comments to the contrary.

[officer_dibble]

I am getting a little nervous that Maddison is going to start after reading those comments. Evatt also suggesting Sarce might not play again this season!

I think he’ll start Isgrove, but I do wonder if Maddison is more likely to get on in a situation where we are behind (or level)? I’ll trust Evatt now on this. If we are a goal up he should stay sat on his arse in my opinion!

Arthur seems doomed to the super sub role. Don’t think Elbo has done enough to warrant a start - indeed he’s more useful off the bench against tiring legs given his speed.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I am getting a little nervous that Maddison is going to start after reading those comments.

I'd be very very surprised, in this game. Not just because FGR are a promotion-chasing team, and not just because we expect them to come at us rather than sit deep – but because they play with wingbacks.

I've said before that football is about players and space. That's why formations exist: to try to maximise domination of the key spaces, or to force overloads which can create chances.

When a 4-2-3-1 team plays against wingbacks, the wide attackers have a crucial role: although the full-backs are there as defensive back-up, essentially it's a positional battle between the wingback and the wide attacker. FGR will want their lads to push on, which will drag ours back - and vice-versa: our wide attackers offer the best hope of the "high width", to use Pru's phrase, that can really pull a back-three team backwards and apart. And if their wing-backs are busy getting back alongside their centre-backs, then that leaves acres in wide midfield for our full-backs to push into, leaving the "safety box" of two centre-backs and two central midfielders to mind the shop – and forcing FGR's central midfielders to scurry across.

So it's all about winning those battles, but also the transitions. Essentially, our wide attackers have to be ready to pelt forward when we have the ball but get back when we lose it, *especially* in Evatt's Pep-fuelled "try to win it back within six seconds" high press. If they switch off or slack off, the switch of play is on for FGR and their wingback is in against our full-back. That can happen on occasion, but it can't be a habit. FGR have a useful header of the ball in Jamille Matt; they also seem to switch between playing with two strikers and a 10, and Matt alone up top supported by two runners, usually Aaron Collins and Charlton loanee Josh Davison. Either way it's effectively a front three pivoting around Matt, so we'll have to be lively for second balls too.

With all that in mind, I'd expect our wide attackers to be Isgrove and Dapo, and let's hope they add the literal finishing touches to their hard work. Arthur seems to have more end product but that could be helped by him running at tiring oppo; Elbo has shown promise in that role; Maddison is said to have all the skill in the world but we're yet to see it, so tomorrow would be a damn good time for him to rise from the bench and prove himself a class above. Even better if it's adding the third and fourth in Bruce's projected win...

[irie Cee Bee]

I'm betting F.G.R's manager is the more uptight right now, despite his comments to the contrary.

Their manager who has been with them since 2016 seems to be very calm and realistic reading his comments

https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/s ... ue-5228962

[The_Gun]

I am getting a little nervous that Maddison is going to start after reading those comments.

I'd be very very surprised, in this game. Not just because FGR are a promotion-chasing team, and not just because we expect them to come at us rather than sit deep – but because they play with wingbacks.

I've said before that football is about players and space. That's why formations exist: to try to maximise domination of the key spaces, or to force overloads which can create chances.

When a 4-2-3-1 team plays against wingbacks, the wide attackers have a crucial role: although the full-backs are there as defensive back-up, essentially it's a positional battle between the wingback and the wide attacker. FGR will want their lads to push on, which will drag ours back - and vice-versa: our wide attackers offer the best hope of the "high width", to use Pru's phrase, that can really pull a back-three team backwards and apart. And if their wing-backs are busy getting back alongside their centre-backs, then that leaves acres in wide midfield for our full-backs to push into, leaving the "safety box" of two centre-backs and two central midfielders to mind the shop – and forcing FGR's central midfielders to scurry across.

So it's all about winning those battles, but also the transitions. Essentially, our wide attackers have to be ready to pelt forward when we have the ball but get back when we lose it, *especially* in Evatt's Pep-fuelled "try to win it back within six seconds" high press. If they switch off or slack off, the switch of play is on for FGR and their wingback is in against our full-back. That can happen on occasion, but it can't be a habit. FGR have a useful header of the ball in Jamille Matt; they also seem to switch between playing with two strikers and a 10, and Matt alone up top supported by two runners, usually Aaron Collins and Charlton loanee Josh Davison. Either way it's effectively a front three pivoting around Matt, so we'll have to be lively for second balls too.

With all that in mind, I'd expect our wide attackers to be Isgrove and Dapo, and let's hope they add the literal finishing touches to their hard work. Arthur seems to have more end product but that could be helped by him running at tiring oppo; Elbo has shown promise in that role; Maddison is said to have all the skill in the world but we're yet to see it, so tomorrow would be a damn good time for him to rise from the bench and prove himself a class above. Even better if it's adding the third and fourth in Bruce's projected win...

Really interesting post, DSB. However, I was thinking Maddison might start behind Doyle, where Delf was last week. Perhaps that may be less of a defensive risk with hard working central midfielders and wide forwards surrounding him, but unless he's got fitter/less lazy then it would still render our press less effective.

[BWFC_Insane]

I am getting a little nervous that Maddison is going to start after reading those comments.

I'd be very very surprised, in this game. Not just because FGR are a promotion-chasing team, and not just because we expect them to come at us rather than sit deep – but because they play with wingbacks.

I've said before that football is about players and space. That's why formations exist: to try to maximise domination of the key spaces, or to force overloads which can create chances.

When a 4-2-3-1 team plays against wingbacks, the wide attackers have a crucial role: although the full-backs are there as defensive back-up, essentially it's a positional battle between the wingback and the wide attacker. FGR will want their lads to push on, which will drag ours back - and vice-versa: our wide attackers offer the best hope of the "high width", to use Pru's phrase, that can really pull a back-three team backwards and apart. And if their wing-backs are busy getting back alongside their centre-backs, then that leaves acres in wide midfield for our full-backs to push into, leaving the "safety box" of two centre-backs and two central midfielders to mind the shop – and forcing FGR's central midfielders to scurry across.

So it's all about winning those battles, but also the transitions. Essentially, our wide attackers have to be ready to pelt forward when we have the ball but get back when we lose it, *especially* in Evatt's Pep-fuelled "try to win it back within six seconds" high press. If they switch off or slack off, the switch of play is on for FGR and their wingback is in against our full-back. That can happen on occasion, but it can't be a habit. FGR have a useful header of the ball in Jamille Matt; they also seem to switch between playing with two strikers and a 10, and Matt alone up top supported by two runners, usually Aaron Collins and Charlton loanee Josh Davison. Either way it's effectively a front three pivoting around Matt, so we'll have to be lively for second balls too.

With all that in mind, I'd expect our wide attackers to be Isgrove and Dapo, and let's hope they add the literal finishing touches to their hard work. Arthur seems to have more end product but that could be helped by him running at tiring oppo; Elbo has shown promise in that role; Maddison is said to have all the skill in the world but we're yet to see it, so tomorrow would be a damn good time for him to rise from the bench and prove himself a class above. Even better if it's adding the third and fourth in Bruce's projected win...

Those 'wide attackers' playing in the channels between the back three and full backs is what I'd like to see. Pull their back 3 around. Full backs can match up their wing backs and offer width. The weakness of 3 at the back is when you find ways of playing the channels - as we know all too well. I'd like to see Arthur start for this reason. The strength with 3 at the back is if you end up forcing teams to double up on your wing backs. We shouldn't do that.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Really interesting post, DSB. However, I was thinking Maddison might start behind Doyle, where Delf was last week. Perhaps that may be less of a defensive risk with hard working central midfielders and wide forwards surrounding him, but unless he's got fitter/less lazy then it would still render our press less effective.

Aye, the gaffer could play Maddison at 10, but I he'll prefer Delf there: although the goals have dried up, he can still usually be relied upon to work for an hour, and theoretically as a centre-forward he adds a bit of heft up top.

Then again, if they've got a back three and we've just the one up top, it might help to have a slightly deeper 10... although they'll presumably be quick, when out of possession, to close the gap between their defence and midfield.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Those 'wide attackers' playing in the channels between the back three and full backs is what I'd like to see. Pull their back 3 around. Full backs can match up their wing backs and offer width. The weakness of 3 at the back is when you find ways of playing the channels - as we know all too well. I'd like to see Arthur start for this reason. The strength with 3 at the back is if you end up forcing teams to double up on your wing backs. We shouldn't do that.

Nice in theory but if our full-backs match up their wing-backs, that means they've got three forwards against our two centre-backs, unless we empty central midfield to help out. You're bang-on that when we have the ball our wide men should be looking for gaps – but when we don't, they can't be watching on from afar, or we're overloaded. It's a fine balance, and it'll shift at least a hundred times during the game, unless there's long periods of keep-ball.

[Worthy4England]

I think Maddison would have had to have pulled his finger out for more than 5 days of training to go from where he is in the current pecking order to starting 10. I'd be very surprised.

[TANGODANCER]

I think Maddison would have had to have pulled his finger out for more than 5 days of training to go from where he is in the current pecking order to starting 10. I'd be very surprised.

Football's gone all too technical to be true. Just might work Madison starting as a wild-card option if we got a couple of early goals then subbed him for say, Miller. All depends on a few "ifs". Failing all else, drop a couple of jumpers at the base of the goalposts and revert to kick and rush.

[officer_dibble]

Fonz hasn’t scored enough but he’s a hard worker. Doubt he’ll be dropped away from home.

[TANGODANCER]

A definitive "Sherlock" post, but I very much doubt what seems like a safe "draw" prediction from two form teams, will happen that way. One of us will have a day at the expense of the other; we can only hope it's us. If ever a game called for a full stadium, this is it, and that again can have a diverse effect on the result. One thing's for sure, a fair amount of League two personnel will be wired in to our game, however much the managers try to keep their players focussed on their own games three hours later. By then I hope we'll be smiling.... COME ON YOU WHITES...

[TonyDomingos]

If ever a game called for a full stadium, this it

I was thinking about this earlier as, in normal times, I'd have been at the game if I could get a ticket. The capacity is 5k, with about 1k for away supporters. I think we'd have sold out our end, even with a noon ko and on tv. Imagine being there to see Maddison's hat-trick!

[LeverEnd]

I'm quite confident about this. They have to try to beat us at home and I think we'll pick them off.
Quite disappointed by Delf in the last few months. As the team has got better he seems to have got worse, or at best stagnated. He was the best of a bad bunch early on. Good pro I think but looks flat.
Having said that I'd keep.him in, because Maddison doesn't look up to it. I'd keep isgrove in for ground covered in an away like this. Nuisance factor rather than ability to kick a ball straight, Pratley-esque.
Arthur first off the bench then thomasson, Maddison and then Elbouzedi, who I'm so not impressed by, however well he trained.

[The_Gun]

Sky seem to be starting their coverage at 11.55am...
I thought we might get at least 15 minutes of build up.

Anyway, nice to be able to watch on the telly with proper camerawork. I will miss auld Derek, though.

[LeverEnd]

Thanks, DSB. If I've interpreted correctly: we'll shit 'em?

DSB makes many interesting points, but this is the kind of incisive analysis I come here for.

And Dibble's superb thread title.

It's all adding up to finishing the day in the top 3 after Mansfield and or Carlisle do us a favour.

I can see why some are a bit doubtful, we've got away with the last two.a bit, but I think this is one where they'll respond to the cameras and the bigger game.

[Worthy4England]

There is a further problem with hope and form. It's the plan to watch the game.

This is when you've mentally made the switch from "I'll see what the weather's like at 14:30 (or 11:30 in this case), it was saying sleet and -2 last night, if it's better than +5, I"ll go"

To

10:00 Breakfast
11:00 B&Q for some drill bits
12:00 Fix new shelf to wall
13:00 Set off to pub
14:00 Move from local pub to ground
14:15 Get beer in ground and await kick off

History suggests that the planned approach doesn't have a great success rate. So I have no plans today. No, honestly (although there's a nagging voice in my head suggesting I should be making some brekkers about now)...