Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

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Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by officer_dibble » Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:54 pm

Had to check which Morecambe and Wise pun was used previously. Are there any Lancaster Whites on here? Been a while since Perfan posted. Be interesting to see how much they fancied it now, be the second biggest game in their history this one (first being the play off final that got them here).

Anyway it needed a match thread. The only football league team I’ve scored against!

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by Harry Genshaw » Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:34 pm

Such a pity crowds aren't allowed in. We'd have taken around 4000 up there.
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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by officer_dibble » Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:13 pm

I suspect we would have been allocated just under 2000. Morecambe could pull 4000 in the home end just about. Be a cracking atmosphere such a shame to play without fans.

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by brommers95 » Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:15 pm

I’ll be honest, I’m really worried for this.

I love the way Evatt has stuck to his philosophy through the rough patches this season and it’s starting to pay dividends. Are we the finished article? No, far from it, but it’s hard not to get the feeling we’re moving in the right direction - it’s clear we’ve made considerable progress from those early season losses.

However, whilst we look very good (in spells) at the UniBol on a slick surface, our passing game is severely hampered on the poor surfaces in this league which are, let’s be honest, most of them. Grimsby’s surface was dry and bobbly, meaning we struggled to get our possession game going, inviting pressure that we’re not used to dealing with and unfortunately Morecambe’s pitch is probably of the same ilk.

We also don’t seem to do so well against physical teams (again see Grimsby), who get the ball to big target men quickly - the Shrimps’ plan A.

Not sure I’ll be able to bring myself to watch it - my nerves were shredded by the end of the Carlisle game and this has the potential to be 10x worse.

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:19 am

It would be somewhat curious if people didn't have the notion that not winning might be a possibility. It's a huge game for both and the winner would be in prime position.

We've played a few of these "six pointers" fairly recently, FGR, Cambridge and unbeaten at home, Salford. We were worth the three points in all of them.

They have a leading scorer who's stats aren't quite as impressive as Doyle's at a total level, but that in part is because they have more options likely to score. Their leading scorers conversion rate is a little better than Doyle.

But, they're far from unbeatable, like most teams in the Division including ourselves. We should have beaten them at Home were it not for Maddison's later rescinded red card which over the season, with the two teams being where we are in the League, might prove to have been a monumentally poor and costly call by the ref. They had one shot on target, which went in, albeit they also hit the bar. They're top of the "home" league table to our third in the away leage table. I'm sure no one will be underestimating the challenge.

Looking at whoscored, apparently they're weaker against teams that attack down the flanks, which is where we'll look to try and get at them.

Buckle up, we're in for a bumpy ride...prediction 1-1.

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by Bertie Wooster » Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:55 am

We will be up for this 2-1 Bolton.

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:06 am

Bertie Wooster wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:55 am
We will be up for this 2-1 Bolton.
Hope to God, you're right, Bertie! :-)

If we can't get "up" for this one, it's a poor show.

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by Harry Genshaw » Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:39 am

I'm veering from wild optimism to total panic and it's only Thursday!

We can grind out positive results, of that there's no doubt, but I suspect it won't be enough here.

1-2 defeat.
"Get your feet off the furniture you Oxbridge tw*t. You're not on a feckin punt now you know"

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:40 am

Harry Genshaw wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:39 am
I'm veering from wild optimism to total panic and it's only Thursday!

We can grind out positive results, of that there's no doubt, but I suspect it won't be enough here.

1-2 defeat.
Come back and post again when you've veered over to "wild optimism" :-)

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:57 am

We've shown our mettle in other key games. So hopefully we can repeat here. The one issue is Morecambe are banging goals in for fun so perhaps we won't get to stifle the game and rely on the 1-0 we've done against Salford and FGR.....and that might mean we need to score some goals. Which is definitely our achilles heel. I suspect the first goal is absolutely critical. If we get it, provides us something to hold onto and (I'd hope) break off and exploit space. But if Morecambe get it - our problem of putting the ball in the net may come under focus.

Its a tough one to call for that reason. You can see Evatt sticking with a similar line up - sounds like John is out - and Brockbank is in but yeah - I'd be seriously tempted to take a risk and change it a bit and play a narrow 4-4-2 with Miller and Doyle up front. Only because I worry that Morecambe may find ways through our backline and we might need a different way of playing that shocks them a bit ala Fleetwood when Pratley returned in that run in. At the back of my mind I've always felt the trouble with playing on the fine margins of going 1-0 up then spoiling the game ala Allardyce is if you don't score first you then always start to struggle, especially against sides that can continue to cause you problems.

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by Harry Genshaw » Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:58 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:40 am
Harry Genshaw wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:39 am
I'm veering from wild optimism to total panic and it's only Thursday!

We can grind out positive results, of that there's no doubt, but I suspect it won't be enough here.

1-2 defeat.
Come back and post again when you've veered over to "wild optimism" :-)
:D 3-0 win. It's this seasons Fleetwood.
"Get your feet off the furniture you Oxbridge tw*t. You're not on a feckin punt now you know"

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by TANGODANCER » Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:02 am

ae:) " Bring me Sunshine"....as the song goes"..

Hope springs eternal.. As ever, I'm predicting a win and not listening to negatives. I don't care one about Morecambe except as a youthful memory, so COME ON YOU WHITES......



ae:)
Si Deus pro nobis, quis contra nos?

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:06 am

Harry Genshaw wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:58 am
Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:40 am
Harry Genshaw wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:39 am
I'm veering from wild optimism to total panic and it's only Thursday!

We can grind out positive results, of that there's no doubt, but I suspect it won't be enough here.

1-2 defeat.
Come back and post again when you've veered over to "wild optimism" :-)
:D 3-0 win. It's this seasons Fleetwood.
Nice - I've put money on! :-)

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:15 am

Just had a quick look at Morecambe's recent xG figures and they're... odd.

They had lower xG than Grimsby but won 3-0; they've only had higher xG than oppo in two of the last four games and lost one of them; at Cambridge they had better xG but lost, and home to Cheltenham they had half the xG but won.

Their xG figures, for an against, also veer from as low as 0.4 to as high as 2.7. As I say, odd.

Either way, what it suggests is a lot of close matches - some chess games, some slugfests. Experimental 361 defines all games with less than 0.3 difference in xG as a draw; by that rationale in the 9 games since the beginning of March they've gone WDLDDDDWD.

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:30 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:15 am
Just had a quick look at Morecambe's recent xG figures and they're... odd.

They had lower xG than Grimsby but won 3-0; they've only had higher xG than oppo in two of the last four games and lost one of them; at Cambridge they had better xG but lost, and home to Cheltenham they had half the xG but won.

Their xG figures, for an against, also veer from as low as 0.4 to as high as 2.7. As I say, odd.

Either way, what it suggests is a lot of close matches - some chess games, some slugfests. Experimental 361 defines all games with less than 0.3 difference in xG as a draw; by that rationale in the 9 games since the beginning of March they've gone WDLDDDDWD.
Perhaps suggests they have a high chance to goal conversion rate?

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:47 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:30 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:15 am
Just had a quick look at Morecambe's recent xG figures and they're... odd.

They had lower xG than Grimsby but won 3-0; they've only had higher xG than oppo in two of the last four games and lost one of them; at Cambridge they had better xG but lost, and home to Cheltenham they had half the xG but won.

Their xG figures, for an against, also veer from as low as 0.4 to as high as 2.7. As I say, odd.

Either way, what it suggests is a lot of close matches - some chess games, some slugfests. Experimental 361 defines all games with less than 0.3 difference in xG as a draw; by that rationale in the 9 games since the beginning of March they've gone WDLDDDDWD.
Perhaps suggests they have a high chance to goal conversion rate?
How does likelihood to concede play into the opposition's score? They have the third leakiest defence in the Division...

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:50 am

We must put a keeper on the bench on Saturday. It is such a pivotal game, imagine if Gilks went down injured in the first few minutes...or was sent off later in the game. You risk throwing the season away for very little gain. We can absolutely sacrifice and outfield player who won't come on anyway for a keeper.

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by The_Gun » Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:53 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:50 am
We must put a keeper on the bench on Saturday. It is such a pivotal game, imagine if Gilks went down injured in the first few minutes...or was sent off later in the game. You risk throwing the season away for very little gain. We can absolutely sacrifice and outfield player who won't come on anyway for a keeper.
Yep, completely agree on this one. Get Jensen on the bench instead of Delaney and move MJ to cb if, god forbid, Baps or Santos get injured.

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:56 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:30 am
Perhaps suggests they have a high chance to goal conversion rate?
Dunno about recently but over the season we've scored once per every 11.9 shots, they once per every 12.5; we've scored one per every 3.7 shots on target, they're on one per 4. So if they're high, we're higher (cue sudden U-turn to how lucky we've been, or some such).
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:50 am
We must put a keeper on the bench on Saturday. It is such a pivotal game, imagine if Gilks went down injured in the first few minutes...or was sent off later in the game. You risk throwing the season away for very little gain. We can absolutely sacrifice and outfield player who won't come on anyway for a keeper.
I'd be amazed if he doesn't.

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Re: Be Wise and Ern it: Morecambe (A) Sat 24/4/21 @ 3pm

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:00 pm

The_Gun wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:53 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:50 am
We must put a keeper on the bench on Saturday. It is such a pivotal game, imagine if Gilks went down injured in the first few minutes...or was sent off later in the game. You risk throwing the season away for very little gain. We can absolutely sacrifice and outfield player who won't come on anyway for a keeper.
Yep, completely agree on this one. Get Jensen on the bench instead of Delaney and move MJ to cb if, god forbid, Baps or Santos get injured.
Yes for me too. He seems to have put a keeper on the bench for FGR and Cambridge? if memory isn't playing tricks, would be surprised if he didn't here too.

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