You're not from New York City - Bolton v Rotherham (H) - 18-Sep-21

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Re: You're not from New York City - Bolton v Rotherham (H) - 18-Sep-21

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:07 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 12:25 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:34 am
There is a naivety about Evatt saying they caught us out by putting 7 in the box and we only practised for ‘5 or 6’ which is why their player was unmarked for the second.
Harry Genshaw wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:51 am
It still annoys the hell out of me that we dont leave anyone up on opposition corners.
These two posts being next to each other makes me wonder where half of our players were when defending corners. :mrgreen:

Mind you, it happens. Palace went to Anfield yesterday and in open play they successfully thwarted Liverpool (who were, admittedly, without both their brilliant attacking full-backs). But then on one set piece they gave the freedom of the area to Sadio Mane, who'd scored against them in their previous nine meetings - and then they ignored Mo Salah, a similarly unwise oversight.

For me there's absolutely no question our defence needs to improve at set pieces, but so does our attack – which, from set pieces, includes a couple of defenders, notably Big Reeks. BWFCi counts dozens of corners we've had without looking threatening, and I have no reason to disbelieve him.

There's also a statistical anomaly afoot. We are the division's third-highest scorers, which is nice, but of those 14 goals, 11 came in three games; the other three were spread over the other five games – seven games, including the two League Cup fixtures. In chrono order:

GOAL GOAL GOAL
.
GOAL GOAL GOAL
GOAL
GOAL GOAL
.
.
GOAL GOAL GOAL * vs Port Vale semi-reserves
.
GOAL GOAL GOAL GOAL GOAL
.

It's feast or famine. And as I say, the famines are coming not because we're clueless or timid - we're having plenty ball, plenty of efforts on goal, but few on target considering the football we're playing. It's neither sacrilege nor ridiculous to say that we need to sharpen up - and as I say, while the gorgeous football is utterly welcome, I'd be very happy to go 1-0 up off a centre-back's head now and again – or the increasing occurence of teams holding us at arm's length could turn a concern into a worry.
If a team comes and plays the ‘low block’ as IE calls it then we will have 60% of the ball plus. But our method for breaking down such a team relies entirely on quality picking out one or two players in the box. And as you say the best sides are threatening from set pieces making it very hard for a ‘low block’ side to see it out for 90 minutes plus. If we’ve had 24 corners in two home games and not scored it suggests that if you can nullify us in open play you will probably get something.

Other way to look at it is we don’t look great defensively when pressed or defending set pieces. So hang in the game and no matter how nice we look you have a chance. Try and play against us and we are very good. So here is the margins we need to be more threatening
from set pieces around the box and less worried about them around our box. That swings the pendulum massively as we should if teams sit in have more set pieces than they do.

I think that’s easier than say finding the players who can just create something out of nothing against a low block or the striker who never miss.

For me it’s about where you can find the gains and right now it’s being better organised on set plays and defensively generally and adding Baka back in for an extra option in the front three. In January it might be finding another forward who can operate front three and offer something else - as Iles says we have no real pace in the side with Baka out - and maybe looking at the midfield and back four.

This will be controversial but as good as Sheehan is on the ball I feel we often carry him off it. And the balance in there isn’t right yet. Neither am I convinced that our back four are solid enough against physical teams like Rotherham.

Of our home games thus far we conceded 3 to MK. 1 to Oxford but they could have scored many more. 2 to PV. Burton clean sheet. 2 yesterday.

Any side wanting promotion keeps clean sheets at home relatively regularly and for me the consistency of conceding is worrying. We are conceding out of the blue too. Not like Rotherham were building a head of steam. And when that starts to happen to me it always rings some alarm bells that perhaps we have overperformed early doors.

I’m confident we can be top 8 but we need a little luck for that. And to fix the issues we can.

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Re: You're not from New York City - Bolton v Rotherham (H) - 18-Sep-21

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:14 pm

jmjhb wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 12:56 pm
As said above we are probably an upper mid-table team. Honestly, I'd rather we improve incrementally every transfer window rather than having to go through a huge overhaul of the squad every season.
Agreed on both, although as always there's truth on both sides. I bet Evatt would love to have had the chance to move Crawford and Comley off the wage bill this summer - but I'm still worried MJ's out of contract next summer. Nothing's ever perfect. But we should now be fine-tuning rather than overhauling.

I would also be interested to know (but havcen't time to check) how long Rotherham's squad has been together, considering they've had five successive relegations and promotions – but under the same manager. Warne was confident enough to make two changes before the hour yesterday, and then another tweak when he removed forward Grigg for midfielder Sadlier; meanwhile, our fella felt he didn't have a third change worth making, and TBH I find it hard to disagree with him. Again, I just feel that having a surprise young attacking loanee to spring from the bench might have made a difference; I also know that's an undisprovable theory, and thus somewhat unfair, but I did worry that the lack of an extra attacker might make us predictable, and here we are with four blanks in five.

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Re: You're not from New York City - Bolton v Rotherham (H) - 18-Sep-21

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:41 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:07 pm
If a team comes and plays the ‘low block’ as IE calls it then we will have 60% of the ball plus. But our method for breaking down such a team relies entirely on quality picking out one or two players in the box. And as you say the best sides are threatening from set pieces making it very hard for a ‘low block’ side to see it out for 90 minutes plus. If we’ve had 24 corners in two home games and not scored it suggests that if you can nullify us in open play you will probably get something.
Agreed that it's possible for a low block to stifle passing teams altogether, but from the attempts on goal it doesn't necessarily look like that.

Looking at the attempts on goal from our blank games:

BAR 7
WIG 9
CAM 13
BUR 25
ROT 17

Now, some of those were blocked (by that low, er, block), but still, here's the unblocked shots:

BAR 7 (no blocks)
WIG 5
CAM 7
BUR 15
ROT 11

That's a lot of unblocked shots for zero goals. Some of them will have gone wide/over, but that's our bad. And while I don't think it's as simple as "Make them stay behind for shooting practice", there's certainly fair scope for questions to be asked.

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Re: You're not from New York City - Bolton v Rotherham (H) - 18-Sep-21

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:03 pm

We didn't have 17 attempts "on goal" yesterday. We had 4. 5 yards wide, is not a shot "on goal" and therefore wouldn't need blocking as you watch it go harmlessly wide. It doesn't matter whether that's "our bad" or not, off target isn't going in. We'd have had to have converted 3 of our 4 chances that might have gone in, had someone not prevented them from doing so, to bagbus three points. 58 chances "on goal" but hitting the corner flag wins nothing.

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Re: You're not from New York City - Bolton v Rotherham (H) - 18-Sep-21

Post by Prufrock » Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:11 pm

I think the potential is there for us to challenge.

I also think it's huge that our two main attacking signings have played 2 and a bit league games between them.

I also think we've had relatively hard games. To take the venerable FourFourTwo magazines pre-season predictions, the teams we've played so far have an average predicted position of 10.75 ("par" would be 12.3).

We're still second on the "expected points" table, Rotherham are top. But oddly it's at home where we're top according to that. We keep out-playing teams and not taking our chances.

My reckon is that a lot of the current home results are noise, mixed with missing those options off the bench. We've still only played 8 games, we're a point off the play offs and all the "proxy" markers suggest we're one of the best teams in the league. Only time will tell ultimately but I'm confident with my top 8 prediction still.
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Re: You're not from New York City - Bolton v Rotherham (H) - 18-Sep-21

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:13 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:03 pm
We didn't have 17 attempts "on goal" yesterday. We had 4. 5 yards wide, is not a shot "on goal" and therefore wouldn't need blocking as you watch it go harmlessly wide. It doesn't matter whether that's "our bad" or not, off target isn't going in. We'd have had to have converted 3 of our 4 chances that might have gone in, had someone not prevented them from doing so, to bagbus three points. 58 chances "on goal" but hitting the corner flag wins nothing.
"Attempts on goal" is standard terminology, of which "attempts on target" is a subset. But if you prefer, we had 17 occasions in which we decided to shoot, but nothing came of it.

However you phrase it, I'd say our attack isn't beyond reproach.
.
Prufrock wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:11 pm
I think the potential is there for us to challenge.
So do I - if we tune up at both ends.
Prufrock wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:11 pm
I also think it's huge that our two main attacking signings have played 2 and a bit league games between them.
Slightly selective. We wanted Kachunga but couldn't afford him – but I know what you mean and it's fair.
Prufrock wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:11 pm
I also think we've had relatively hard games. To take the venerable FourFourTwo magazines pre-season predictions, the teams we've played so far have an average predicted position of 10.75 ("par" would be 12.3).
I wouldn't believe those jokers, the season Leicester won the league they'd backed them for relegation :mrgreen:

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Re: You're not from New York City - Bolton v Rotherham (H) - 18-Sep-21

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:27 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:41 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:07 pm
If a team comes and plays the ‘low block’ as IE calls it then we will have 60% of the ball plus. But our method for breaking down such a team relies entirely on quality picking out one or two players in the box. And as you say the best sides are threatening from set pieces making it very hard for a ‘low block’ side to see it out for 90 minutes plus. If we’ve had 24 corners in two home games and not scored it suggests that if you can nullify us in open play you will probably get something.
Agreed that it's possible for a low block to stifle passing teams altogether, but from the attempts on goal it doesn't necessarily look like that.

Looking at the attempts on goal from our blank games:

BAR 7
WIG 9
CAM 13
BUR 25
ROT 17

Now, some of those were blocked (by that low, er, block), but still, here's the unblocked shots:

BAR 7 (no blocks)
WIG 5
CAM 7
BUR 15
ROT 11

That's a lot of unblocked shots for zero goals. Some of them will have gone wide/over, but that's our bad. And while I don't think it's as simple as "Make them stay behind for shooting practice", there's certainly fair scope for questions to be asked.
Yesterday for all our possession we created one real clear cut chance. Doyle’s. He hit the post. The rest was lots of positions we should have done better with the final ball in. The issue is less our finishing - though of course that can always improve - but more our conversion of possession into good chances. You can argue that we maybe lack another goal getter especially from midfield but we didn’t score 5 last week because our finishing is woeful. We drew blanks in last two home games because any team in the world finds it harder to score against a low block and a packed defence. And we struggled to create genuine clear chances.

I think there is a general view from football fans that when you don’t score it’s the striker or forwards and it can be. But truth is our game is lovely to watch but yesterday didn’t produce too much especially second half.

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Re: You're not from New York City - Bolton v Rotherham (H) - 18-Sep-21

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:34 pm

Aye never under estimate the marketing department's ability to come up with bullshit. They're excellent at it in my business. The point is we needed to score 3 yesterday to win. In pursuit of that we managed 4 on target...we need to tighten up at both ends, but we absolutely need to stop conceding 2.

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Re: You're not from New York City - Bolton v Rotherham (H) - 18-Sep-21

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:57 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:34 pm
Aye never under estimate the marketing department's ability to come up with bullshit. They're excellent at it in my business. The point is we needed to score 3 yesterday to win. In pursuit of that we managed 4 on target...we need to tighten up at both ends, but we absolutely need to stop conceding 2.
Indeed. The second goal they scored yesterday was a horror. Looks worse on second viewing. We also need to stop conceding first. Makes games much harder especially against good opposition.

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Re: You're not from New York City - Bolton v Rotherham (H) - 18-Sep-21

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Sep 19, 2021 3:36 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:57 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:34 pm
Aye never under estimate the marketing department's ability to come up with bullshit. They're excellent at it in my business. The point is we needed to score 3 yesterday to win. In pursuit of that we managed 4 on target...we need to tighten up at both ends, but we absolutely need to stop conceding 2.
Indeed. The second goal they scored yesterday was a horror. Looks worse on second viewing. We also need to stop conceding first. Makes games much harder especially against good opposition.
Yeah, not too disheartened and they were pretty tidy, but you could make the "not going in the net" number 50 if you want, don't think anyone came away from yesterday, thinking we were somehow short-changed or likely to bag 3.

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Re: You're not from New York City - Bolton v Rotherham (H) - 18-Sep-21

Post by Prufrock » Sun Sep 19, 2021 3:40 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:13 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:11 pm
I also think it's huge that our two main attacking signings have played 2 and a bit league games between them.
Slightly selective. We wanted Kachunga but couldn't afford him – but I know what you mean and it's fair.
Not selective, idiotic, I'd forgotten him :D

But yeah, 2/3, and it's fair to say Kachunga is miles off at the moment. If we play most of the season with Isgrove starting and Delf as our second option off the bench I don't think we'll be troubling the top end. But I don't think we will.
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Re: You're not from New York City - Bolton v Rotherham (H) - 18-Sep-21

Post by TANGODANCER » Sun Sep 19, 2021 4:11 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:32 am
TANGODANCER wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:18 am
In short, although we can't expect to win every game, it happens in every league, even the highest :bad defending and lack of taking chances can't be denied. Every game's a cup final. Accept it and move on.
So when you lose, you just accept and move on? You don't try an analyse where you did well and not so well? You don't try and improve? You just say "ahh well, it's only a game." Wrong answer for me. You look to improve. As Brucie said if Dapo is occupying 2 or 3 of them, you try to work out where the gaps are and how you exploit them.
Totally wrong. Not what I said or meant at all.. Analysing and improving is part of moving on, but you can't change a result, you have to accept it and not dwell on the fact.
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Re: You're not from New York City - Bolton v Rotherham (H) - 18-Sep-21

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Sep 19, 2021 5:19 pm

TANGODANCER wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 4:11 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:32 am
TANGODANCER wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:18 am
In short, although we can't expect to win every game, it happens in every league, even the highest :bad defending and lack of taking chances can't be denied. Every game's a cup final. Accept it and move on.
So when you lose, you just accept and move on? You don't try an analyse where you did well and not so well? You don't try and improve? You just say "ahh well, it's only a game." Wrong answer for me. You look to improve. As Brucie said if Dapo is occupying 2 or 3 of them, you try to work out where the gaps are and how you exploit them.
Totally wrong. Not what I said or meant at all.. Analysing and improving is part of moving on, but you can't change a result, you have to accept it and not dwell on the fact.
Grand. Coz we're not dwelling on the result, we're saying the defence needs to improve and the attack needs to get more clinical. :-)

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Re: You're not from New York City - Bolton v Rotherham (H) - 18-Sep-21

Post by officer_dibble » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:53 am

We definitely could do with scoring first a bit more!

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