What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

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What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by GhostoftheBok » Thu Nov 04, 2021 12:01 am

I was talking to some of my mates this evening about the Newcastle takeover and, having spent quite a lot of my life living in that there London, the group was mostly made up of Arsenal, Spurs and Chelsea fans (with the odd Liverpool fan and a very odd City fan thrown in). They were mostly bemoaning how Newcastle's takeover would turn the "top 3" into a "top 4" and shut clubs like Arsenal and Spurs out of any hope of CL football most years. The general agreement was that without being able to dream of a title challenge or CL football there wasn't much excitement and hope to be had.

It got me thinking of what dreams I have for Bolton over the next few years. I can remember the thrill of the 2004/5 season, when we came within one win of CL football and got to a cup final. Around that time it was easy to dream (relatively) big dreams of silverware and upsetting the big boys by elbowing our way to the money trough...our board dreamt those dreams too it seems, because here we are now, having ridden that financial wave down into the gutter and begun hauling ourselves back out. Back in 2004 a 5 year ambition was that we might dare to finally win a trophy after our 50 year drought. What is it now?

We nearly lost the club, so we are all happy just to be able to watch Bolton play in any division; but that will eventually wear off for all of us and we will once again be killed by hope. What are you hoping for from the next 5 years? Not just in terms of which league we might play in, but also how we'll play, how the club will develop as we rebuild and anything else you can think of in the vein.

What constitutes success for you? Equally what, if anything, would failure look like?

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by The_Gun » Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:33 am

A good question, Ghost, but not one that is easy to answer in the ephemeral footballing world, where fickle fans, greedy owners, and incompetent governing bodies combine to form an ever shifting landscape.

I think if you are looking for a very defined measure of success, then for me it would be promotion to, and stabilisation in the Championship within that time period. Less important for the long term, but of interest to me as a fan, would be a few good cup runs and the chance to see us play some of the big Prem teams again. These are realistic, attainable goals, which once achieved can then be revised and built upon.

A slightly vaguer goal would be general 'progress' on and off the field. This would encompass things like greater fan/community engagement, strengthening of commercial activities, continuing to play positive, attractive football at all levels, and of particular importance to me: bringing through young players, either from our academy or acquired at a later stage, who can contribute to our first team and become valuable assets for our club.

My hope for Bolton Wanderers in the medium term is that we become a sustainably run business, which is a proud symbol of our town, and one that other clubs look at as an example. Looking up the divisions, Brentford and Brighton stand out as leading lights for what we should be aspiring towards.

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:35 am

Its a really good question but a very hard one to answer. I look at the premiership and see Newcastle potentially the richest club in the world now COULD, be a championship side next season.

And that's just emblematic of what has happened in football. There is a growing divide in the championship between the have's and have nots. And a growing divide in league one too. And currently though we don't know for sure, we seem to be in the have nots category. Certainly in terms of going out and making a big financial splash. Things change here though I always smile at the old 'investment' line - not sure there are many if any examples of football clubs receiving substantial investement to bolster their playing squads in quick time that aren't also about a change of ownership entirely. The days of an 'investor' to me in football are gone. ED pumped money in for a while before he had a majority shareholding but I don't see anyone doing that today. Not at a level that would rocket us up in this league or the next.

So whilst you get teams overperforming and reaching heights that exceed their financial abilities the reality is that is becoming rarer and rarer. January will be an interesting month to see what the level of ability to really help the team grow on the field is. Not ambition. I'm sure that's there. But the ability to compete for players under contract. Because I think to take further steps we're really going to need to dip in that market at least a couple of times.

I think sustainable is important and that means we might all have to accept that our 10 year plus decline (that started for me when Owen Coyle wasn't sacked in November when we had a squad more than capable of premiership survival) has happened at the worst possible moment. It happened against the backdrop of huge increases in TV deals in the top division. Which means clubs have now a 10 year benefit in some cases whilst we've been through the leagues and the courts. The journey back in the 90's was glorious and inspired. And relatively unlikely. But there are two things to note about it. 1) The financial gaps were much smaller and more bridgeable in the second tier especially then and 2) The club were able to spend relatively competitively in the second tier. Not Wolves (at the time) level but still spend money of say a mid table championship side equivalent. Which meant we were looking to bridge 6 or 7 spaces with sound management and the x factor formula rather than 15 or 16 spaces. Also that period has a glut of good players more evenly spread. So it was easier to pick up those special players at any level than it is now where I think the real stand out quality is much more concentrated in the top few teams.

For me if we are in the championship in 5 years as of now I'm not sure we can ask for or expect anymore. But that won't be easy. Things change rapidly in football sometimes and the dream for me is to get back to the top flight. Its not impossible but would need changes and I've sort of reconciled myself to the fact it may not happen again in my lifetime. Who knows, but we'll have fund along the way finding out.

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Nov 04, 2021 10:26 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:35 am
Its a really good question but a very hard one to answer. I look at the premiership and see Newcastle potentially the richest club in the world now COULD, be a championship side next season.

And that's just emblematic of what has happened in football. There is a growing divide in the championship between the have's and have nots. And a growing divide in league one too. And currently though we don't know for sure, we seem to be in the have nots category. Certainly in terms of going out and making a big financial splash. Things change here though I always smile at the old 'investment' line - not sure there are many if any examples of football clubs receiving substantial investement to bolster their playing squads in quick time that aren't also about a change of ownership entirely. The days of an 'investor' to me in football are gone. ED pumped money in for a while before he had a majority shareholding but I don't see anyone doing that today. Not at a level that would rocket us up in this league or the next.

So whilst you get teams overperforming and reaching heights that exceed their financial abilities the reality is that is becoming rarer and rarer. January will be an interesting month to see what the level of ability to really help the team grow on the field is. Not ambition. I'm sure that's there. But the ability to compete for players under contract. Because I think to take further steps we're really going to need to dip in that market at least a couple of times.

I think sustainable is important and that means we might all have to accept that our 10 year plus decline (that started for me when Owen Coyle wasn't sacked in November when we had a squad more than capable of premiership survival) has happened at the worst possible moment. It happened against the backdrop of huge increases in TV deals in the top division. Which means clubs have now a 10 year benefit in some cases whilst we've been through the leagues and the courts. The journey back in the 90's was glorious and inspired. And relatively unlikely. But there are two things to note about it. 1) The financial gaps were much smaller and more bridgeable in the second tier especially then and 2) The club were able to spend relatively competitively in the second tier. Not Wolves (at the time) level but still spend money of say a mid table championship side equivalent. Which meant we were looking to bridge 6 or 7 spaces with sound management and the x factor formula rather than 15 or 16 spaces. Also that period has a glut of good players more evenly spread. So it was easier to pick up those special players at any level than it is now where I think the real stand out quality is much more concentrated in the top few teams.

For me if we are in the championship in 5 years as of now I'm not sure we can ask for or expect anymore. But that won't be easy. Things change rapidly in football sometimes and the dream for me is to get back to the top flight. Its not impossible but would need changes and I've sort of reconciled myself to the fact it may not happen again in my lifetime. Who knows, but we'll have fund along the way finding out.
I agree with vast swathes of this. The only thing I'd quibble about - and for a reason - is bolded, because it's worse for everybody than you paint. A club that's been in the top flight for the last decade might seem to be in a better place - to "have a 10-year benefit", in your phrase - but I'd say that benefit is ephemeral, to use The Gun's word.

Certainly, clubs get tens of millions per season just by being in the Premier League. But in almost all cases, that money all goes back out again – it's not like it's banked for a rainy day. We found that out, and plenty of others have - I note that Huddersfield's majority owner has just gone bust, although ownership chicanery might save the club. But you get the point. Bournemouth, bankrolled to buggery to get up the league, stayed there for half a decade and are now spending big again to get back up.

All this is fundamentally in service of your main point (and winding round to answering the OP). There's no point risking the club to reach the promised land because it doesn't mean financial safety - far from it. And the second tier is even worse because so many clubs gamble massively with only a very small chance of recouping.

I genuinely think that the way we have to be is like a Rotherham or Wycombe, getting promoted from this division but not overspeculating in the next. It will require careful husbandry at management and board level. It will require patience from the fans. It might involve relegation, because we'll be batting against the odds. Like you, I laugh at the idea of mystery investors happily pouring money in for a minority share – not just because their investment won't have a return, but because they don't even own the thing. I wouldn't want a Boohoo or someone to come in and start throwing money around because what happens when they pull the plug? Well, we know. From bitter, bitter experience.

So for me: stay sustainable, above all - I want a club to watch in a decade's time. Seek promotion from whatever division we're in, but not at all costs. Be patient. And for me, it genuinely helps when we're playing nice football. We always go round the roudabout on this but the formula still stands: attractive winning football is better than unattractive winning football is better than attractive losing football is better than unattractive winning football. There may be seasons where we lose more than we win, and I'd rather it be with Riochian intent to entertain than with Megsonian miserablism. I don't expect us to always win, but I at least want to be entertained.

Oh and go for it in the cups. This club loves a cup run.

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Nov 04, 2021 12:02 pm

^^ DSB that is true in many cases these clubs flitter away their gains. As we did. But some say, Burnley haven't. And have stayed there too. And they all are rewarded not just on a season by season basis but through parachute payments and relegation. I guess I'm saying that whilst we know the finances are always stretched by player demands these clubs have an advantage built and baked into the system over ourselves. If you take Burnley who were significantly below us during Sam's time here. And nobody would think we could be caught by them realistically - now they are light years ahead but the financial structure of the game protects them better than we were protected. It was our own fault don't get me wrong - it just all happened at the worst possible time.

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Nov 04, 2021 12:04 pm

The whole concept of Big 4 is a myth. Since the Premiership started, much as it hurts me to say it, Utd have won it as many times as City, Chelsea and Arsenal combined, and that's taking into account that the last time they won it was a long time ago. We might have finally turned a one horse race into 3/4 horse race.

No one has won it without significant bankrolling and that doesn't seem likely. FA Cup, League Cup same. Rarely won outside a few.

That leaves "Cup run" and lower division promotions.

I'd like to think we could aspire to Champo in 5 years, couple of seasons around the playoffs wouldn't be a disaster.

I'd like to think we could "Southampton" it, but not seeing signs of that yet. Or "Brentford" it, both will take time. Brentford had one season where they flogged 6 players who I think had been there less than 18 months for £20m (half was for striker they sold to Burnley). If we managed to flog Dapo for 10, I doubt we'd double it selling the rest of the squad.

So, sustainable, promotion push, Cup run and tilt at EFL Trophy are all probably realistic goals, but I'm not rejecting "tycoon bankroll" out of hand. :-)

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by Abdoulaye's Twin » Thu Nov 04, 2021 12:23 pm

Worth pointing out that we had a baked in advantage too, albeit smaller numbers. The difference is we spunked it on Zat Knight, Reo Coker et al. Even a moderate return on the money thrown around back (relative to much of the division) then would probably have seen us stay in the Championship. Obviously Anderson and Holdsworth would have spannered any hope.

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Nov 04, 2021 12:49 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 12:02 pm
^^ DSB that is true in many cases these clubs flitter away their gains. As we did. But some say, Burnley haven't. And have stayed there too. And they all are rewarded not just on a season by season basis but through parachute payments and relegation. I guess I'm saying that whilst we know the finances are always stretched by player demands these clubs have an advantage built and baked into the system over ourselves. If you take Burnley who were significantly below us during Sam's time here. And nobody would think we could be caught by them realistically - now they are light years ahead but the financial structure of the game protects them better than we were protected. It was our own fault don't get me wrong - it just all happened at the worst possible time.
Burnley is obviously a good model (and a massive outlier) but per Swiss Ramble, their profit in 2020 was zero, in 2019 it was £5m. And they've just been taken over by a new bunch who presumably have sunk money in. Even so, I expect they'll remain sensible, so if they drop out of the division, because gravity always wins, they won't have hurtled too far along Shit Street.

But as I say, they're the exception. Most clubs who go down spunk the parachute money - the existence of which does not go unnoticed by agents - on fees and contracts which often outlast the parachute length. Think Zat Knight, Keith Andrews.

I can't stress enough how completely all the money leaches out of the system. No club is rolling in it, unless they take the highly risky Peterborough/Brentford model of being a trading club, which is always at the mercy of the market plus form and fitness. But at least it's not a gamble.

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:48 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 12:49 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 12:02 pm
^^ DSB that is true in many cases these clubs flitter away their gains. As we did. But some say, Burnley haven't. And have stayed there too. And they all are rewarded not just on a season by season basis but through parachute payments and relegation. I guess I'm saying that whilst we know the finances are always stretched by player demands these clubs have an advantage built and baked into the system over ourselves. If you take Burnley who were significantly below us during Sam's time here. And nobody would think we could be caught by them realistically - now they are light years ahead but the financial structure of the game protects them better than we were protected. It was our own fault don't get me wrong - it just all happened at the worst possible time.
Burnley is obviously a good model (and a massive outlier) but per Swiss Ramble, their profit in 2020 was zero, in 2019 it was £5m. And they've just been taken over by a new bunch who presumably have sunk money in. Even so, I expect they'll remain sensible, so if they drop out of the division, because gravity always wins, they won't have hurtled too far along Shit Street.

But as I say, they're the exception. Most clubs who go down spunk the parachute money - the existence of which does not go unnoticed by agents - on fees and contracts which often outlast the parachute length. Think Zat Knight, Keith Andrews.

I can't stress enough how completely all the money leaches out of the system. No club is rolling in it, unless they take the highly risky Peterborough/Brentford model of being a trading club, which is always at the mercy of the market plus form and fitness. But at least it's not a gamble.
Yeah. The pattern is go down, 2 or 3 seasons to come back up. Most manage it. Some completely implode (us, Sunderland) and end up down the leagues. Others manage to survive financially but become jettisoned in the mid reaches of the second tier.

The problem is that on any given championship season there will be 7 or 8 clubs able to spend not just double or treble what a club like Bolton could in that league but orders of magnitude more. Some seasons there might be even 9 or 10 depending on the composition. That means that we're not only having to jump over the ones spending double or treble in mid table but also a large number of huge spenders have to fail for us to succeed.

I'm not saying its impossible and on paper of course it always looks worse but football does have a habit of finding a way. I just think the odds in 92 were stacked against us. But now they aren't so much stacked as avalanched and continuing to do so at pace.

We cannot chase an unrealistic dream and risk the club again. Ever. If bottom end of the championship is good as it gets till we're in the ground then that's what it is. We've seen enough near death (and actual death) experiences in respect of football clubs, many of our own to know that its not in any way a good deal to trade security for potential glory. But we have to know what that means.

Glory is possible but the club needs to be very hard headed, determined and not like the past decision makers. I go back to November 2011 and the fateful decision or non decision that was screamingly obvious yet ducked by PG (his worst moment by far) and fans who refused to really force the issue - I knew then where we'd end up. We've ended up there and I also knew we'd rise again eventually. But I do think the greatest likelihood is the peaks we scaled last time will just be out of reach this time round.

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by truewhite15 » Thu Nov 04, 2021 3:36 pm

Championship football or better. Two or three youth players in the first team per season. Emphasis on entertaining football. Continue to grow the link between club and town.

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by Abdoulaye's Twin » Thu Nov 04, 2021 4:34 pm

I'd like to think we can manage a promotion to the Championship and either bob along there in the lower reaches, or more likely drop back down. As long as we're competing and turning up each week then I'm happy. I'd hate to be in any division playing and clinging on for 17th (or equivalent) every year. What would be the point. We should be having a proper crack at winning whatever we're in, even if it is doomed to failure 99.99% of the time. The hope might be what 'kills you', but ultimately it is the hope that makes football what it is.

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by GhostoftheBok » Thu Nov 04, 2021 7:24 pm

I appreciate all the responses. They've been interesting to read.

I picked 5 years for a reason, as I think that's the maximum life of this phase of "project Bolton."

I think we've been a bit fortunate with the timing of our collapse, as odd as that sounds. We are financially weak, but at a time when nobody else wants to commit to long term, expensive contracts for anything but their top players. That means more free transfers and the ability to compete for key players on limited budgets. We have a couple of years in which to punch above our weight, before the crippling reality of modern football finances kick in again.

We also have to invest less than other clubs moving up the leagues. Our stadium and facilities are of a high standard, even if the loss of Euxton still hurts. That means that in real terms we have decent financial clout compared to other clubs undergoing a renewal. Our biggest investments seem to need to be in analytics, which are much cheaper to develop now than they were 10 years ago. We have the office space, we don't need to build, so again we are in a good position.

We also have a huge reputational advantage. When Bolton were in the Premier League we got really favourable media coverage. Yeah, we got slated for our football and Sam was seen as dodgy - but we were taken very seriously as a football team. Sunderland and others were a running media joke, but players and journalists who are now in their 20s grew up with the idea of Bolton as a big club. When I talk to people in the game we are seen as a desirable club to be associated with, above others that are probably "bigger" than us in a number of ways.

I think success looks like a fully rebuilt Championship club. We are working up from a barebones, shattered infrastructure and I think 7 years should enough to be Bolton Wanderers again. I want to see a genuinely modern approach to the game, but done sensibly with innovation rather than spending being key. We should embrace new ideas, give chances to young staff, look to our youth development and hire from the local community where possible.

On the playing side, data is vitally important. We need to combine quality analysts with quality coaches. If we can do that, we can compete. Ultimately, I just want to look at the club and see pride, passion and professionalism. If I do I will be happy.

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by nicholaldo » Thu Nov 04, 2021 10:09 pm

Andrew Gartside referred to the ownership's "pragmatic ambition" when discussing the club's aim to return to the Championship and I think if our financial reach remains the same a stable, mid-ranking second-tier club, primed for investment or even a takeover by wealthier groups is probably the upper end of what constitutes success.

I'd also quite like us to aim towards becoming the best of the non-Premier League Lancashire clubs.

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by GhostoftheBok » Fri Nov 05, 2021 1:37 am

The_Gun wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:33 am
and of particular importance to me: bringing through young players, either from our academy or acquired at a later stage, who can contribute to our first team and become valuable assets for our club.
I share this desire, Gun.

Out of interest, do you regard players like Dapo and Johnston as fulfilling that criteria? Personally, I do; but I've spoken to a few fans who disagree that improving players of 23 should be seen as developing younger players.

Are you specifically looking for lads who count as "one of our own"?

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Nov 05, 2021 9:22 am

I have no idea why fans would care where our players come from. I can see that a business model would be better with homegrown but for fans success is on the pitch and whether home grown or imported it’s the same.

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by The_Gun » Fri Nov 05, 2021 9:26 am

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Fri Nov 05, 2021 1:37 am
The_Gun wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:33 am
and of particular importance to me: bringing through young players, either from our academy or acquired at a later stage, who can contribute to our first team and become valuable assets for our club.
I share this desire, Gun.

Out of interest, do you regard players like Dapo and Johnston as fulfilling that criteria? Personally, I do; but I've spoken to a few fans who disagree that improving players of 23 should be seen as developing younger players.

Are you specifically looking for lads who count as "one of our own"?
Yes, we want to be doing both ideally. Signing players of the profile of a Dapo or Johnston is fantastic business if they end up kicking on, and you don't need to find too many Dapos in order to significantly move the club forward.

At the same time, there is a degree of romanticism around bringing through local lads, and I hope we can start retaining more of our young talent going forwards. Of course, we will always likely lose out on the cream of the crop in the region, but if there is a clear pathway to the first team for young players at Bolton then we stand a better chance of keeping some of our better lads.

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by The_Gun » Fri Nov 05, 2021 9:31 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Nov 05, 2021 9:22 am
I have no idea why fans would care where our players come from. I can see that a business model would be better with homegrown but for fans success is on the pitch and whether home grown or imported it’s the same.
For some people supporting a football club is partially about being part of a community, and not just a form of detached entertainment. A lot of people feel more connected to their team when there are players who come from their area. If you don't care about this then fine, but it's surely something you must be well aware is incredibly common.

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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by TANGODANCER » Fri Nov 05, 2021 9:39 am

Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

After the hard lessons we've learned over the past couple of years, still being here surely?
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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by Prufrock » Fri Nov 05, 2021 12:17 pm

The_Gun wrote:
Fri Nov 05, 2021 9:31 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Nov 05, 2021 9:22 am
I have no idea why fans would care where our players come from. I can see that a business model would be better with homegrown but for fans success is on the pitch and whether home grown or imported it’s the same.
For some people supporting a football club is partially about being part of a community, and not just a form of detached entertainment. A lot of people feel more connected to their team when there are players who come from their area. If you don't care about this then fine, but it's surely something you must be well aware is incredibly common.
Aye, I'm not the fussed about it personally, but it get that others are. Modern football also muddies the water a bit too. Where do you peg e.g. Politic?
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Re: What is "success" for Bolton over the next 5 years?

Post by Worthy4England » Fri Nov 05, 2021 12:42 pm

The_Gun wrote:
Fri Nov 05, 2021 9:31 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Nov 05, 2021 9:22 am
I have no idea why fans would care where our players come from. I can see that a business model would be better with homegrown but for fans success is on the pitch and whether home grown or imported it’s the same.
For some people supporting a football club is partially about being part of a community, and not just a form of detached entertainment. A lot of people feel more connected to their team when there are players who come from their area. If you don't care about this then fine, but it's surely something you must be well aware is incredibly common.
I'm not sure how common this is, I'd hesitate to suggest "incredibly"...I'd love to have a production line of "footballers from Bolton" but gotta be honest, I don't care that much. Dapo is as much a Bolton player as Brocky to me...If you look at Rioch's promotion team, it wasn't full or Boltonians, yet I'd suggest fans were very engaged. I think that's true of Toddy and Allardyce (in the early years certainly).

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