January 2022 Transfer Thread

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Evatt update.

[Kacha's injury] has changed the plans slightly. One player we wanted from August and tried to get again at the start of this window was told he was available, available, available, then Bolton want you, then you’re not available. That happens, sometimes. With the Covid situation clubs are trying to hang on to their squad depth in case the worst happens and they need to change things around.

The two we are trying to bring in now hopefully won’t suffer for that and we can get them in the building to make us better. One we have made an offer for, it has been in for 24 hours now and we haven’t heard anything back. I'm taking it as good news because the first one was rejected out of sight. No news is good news and hopefully they are having a good think about it.

The second one, he’s away on international camp at the moment and we’re trying our best to get it done. It is complicated because he is on a pretty big salary with his parent club. Do I think they will be done this weekend? No. Next? Maybe. Hopefully.

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/1 ... ry-target/

International camp: Africa Cup of Nations? IDK...

[Worthy4England]

General observation, Barnetto, it seemed to work pretty well for us (and the team built to try and take advantage of it) at the time. Debunked or not...

[GhostoftheBok]

Iceland are currently away. Bodvarsson scored against Uganda on Wednesday. They play Japan tomorrow.

[Bruce Rioja]

Drill ball into Pomo

To who, sorry? I can see I'm going to have to take the squad list along tomorrow.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

General observation, Barnetto, it seemed to work pretty well for us (and the team built to try and take advantage of it) at the time. Debunked or not...

Worthy, it's a huge oversimplification to say (as dear old BWFCi does) that we just banged it into the area. In fact, I'd go so far as to say it's frankly rude to be so reductive about Sam's statistical analysis and tactical awareness. Not to mention the fantastic players he employed.

Sam was aware of stuff like POMO and he sometimes played percentages. But a great manager is now being tarnished with the idea that he was all about moronic simplicity. I'd expect it from bitter Cockney losers but not our own supporters.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Iceland are currently away. Bodvarsson scored against Uganda on Wednesday. They play Japan tomorrow.

Course they do. Wait, what?!

[GhostoftheBok]

Iceland are currently away. Bodvarsson scored against Uganda on Wednesday. They play Japan tomorrow.

Course they do. Wait, what?!

Sorry, my mistake. South Korea, not Japan.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Iceland are currently away. Bodvarsson scored against Uganda on Wednesday. They play Japan tomorrow.

Course they do. Wait, what?!

Sorry, my mistake. South Korea, not Japan.

Oh, well that's alright then

[GhostoftheBok]

Oh, well that's alright then

They've decided to form a new international league based on per capita poetry production. The Welsh are still livid they've been denied entry.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Oh, well that's alright then

They've decided to form a new international league based on per capita poetry production. The Welsh are still livid they've been denied entry.

Indeed, I see Bodvarsson's grandad was a poet. What a country.

Seriously - IDK. It's not a signing to make me jump out of bed in the morning, but we'll see. I'm still glad we can make signings at all.

[Worthy4England]

General observation, Barnetto, it seemed to work pretty well for us (and the team built to try and take advantage of it) at the time. Debunked or not...

Worthy, it's a huge oversimplification to say (as dear old BWFCi does) that we just banged it into the area. In fact, I'd go so far as to say it's frankly rude to be so reductive about Sam's statistical analysis and tactical awareness. Not to mention the fantastic players he employed.

Sam was aware of stuff like POMO and he sometimes played percentages. But a great manager is now being tarnished with the idea that he was all about moronic simplicity. I'd expect it from bitter Cockney losers but not our own supporters.

That wasn't what I was suggesting at all.

[BWFC_Insane]

Don’t need fancy corner routines. Drill ball into Pomo just ahead of penalty spot every time. Players attack it. Will lead to more goals than a million clever routines. Variation once a match short or far post.

Honestly we scored so many under Big Sam like that.

There's few things I have less time and tolerance for than contempt prior to investigation.

Brentford rank 6th in the league for shots from corners. That, I would say, is impressive overperformance in the world's most expensive and financially stratified division.

Despising the "clever" is an ugly anti-intellectualism which isn't a good look on anyone. The wider interpretations of POMO theory – wider than the blindingly obvious "most goals happen in front of goal" – have been widely debunked by several different statisticians and analysts. And if you think teams taking exactly the same corner every time except for "variation once a match" wouldn't be noticed and countered, I can only imagine that you think scouts and managers are as blindly and blandly dismissive as you are.

Well that’s a stretch. Inswingers lead to more goals than outswingers. There is an area in the box where most goals are scored from.

If you put the ball there it represents your best chance of scoring goals. It also requires one delivery to be drilled. And we struggle frankly with any delivery. So get one right. Then vary the runners.

If you want to convince me that more goals are statistically scored from the corner of the box than in front of the penalty spot from corners then fine. But it’s not the case.

Short corners lead to goals more often when taken quickly (and by the best 5 teams in the premiership) which absolutely makes sense but their success plummets when taken once the opposition is set.

[BWFC_Insane]

General observation, Barnetto, it seemed to work pretty well for us (and the team built to try and take advantage of it) at the time. Debunked or not...

Worthy, it's a huge oversimplification to say (as dear old BWFCi does) that we just banged it into the area. In fact, I'd go so far as to say it's frankly rude to be so reductive about Sam's statistical analysis and tactical awareness. Not to mention the fantastic players he employed.

Sam was aware of stuff like POMO and he sometimes played percentages. But a great manager is now being tarnished with the idea that he was all about moronic simplicity. I'd expect it from bitter Cockney losers but not our own supporters.

It wasn’t moronic simplicity. It followed the ideas Sam had gleaned from other sports about repeatability.

Did you ever listen to him talk about the best chance of scoring a goal is to take the fewest touches before a shot or header. So from your box to the opponents box every pass or touch taken statistically reduces your chances of that attack being a goal. It’s obvious. But a fact. Sam was very clear, every action effectively increase the chance of not scoring.

[GhostoftheBok]

Seriously - IDK. It's not a signing to make me jump out of bed in the morning, but we'll see. I'm still glad we can make signings at all.

Just strikes me as a player very like Kachunga. Taller, not as quick shifting his feet; but a similar sort of grafting, intelligent footballer without the end product to be a top player.

Millwall fans hate him as a merc, but others seem to think he'd run through a brick wall for the team.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Did you ever listen to him talk about the best chance of scoring a goal is to take the fewest touches before a shot or header. So from your box to the opponents box every pass or touch taken statistically reduces your chances of that attack being a goal. It’s obvious. But a fact. Sam was very clear, every action effectively increase the chance of not scoring.

No mate, I didn't. It's not something that he said on any of the dozens of occasions I interviewed him, for a football magazine, many of them specifically giving tactical advice.

As for advocating short moves. Among those who have queued to demolish the statistical assertations of Charles Reep - the WWII wing commander who advocated solely using "reachers", the long balls into the opponent's third for which John Beck's Cambridge set a new record with 219 in a game – is tactical history connoisseur Jonathan Wilson, who points out a fundamental flaw in the reasoning: while Reep’s numbers suggest 80 percent of goals came from moves of three passes or fewer, they also say 91.5 percent of moves were of this length, surely implying they were actually underperforming.

POMO/Reep acolytes like Beck tend to get so fascinated with the numbers that they avoid the football part of the equation. As Beck's own assistant has pointed out, at one point their stats man "could 'prove' that it was better to pass to the opposition left back than our right winger.” Sam was far from being that stubborn and inflexible.

When Beck took over at Preston, the caretaker manager was busted back down to being youth team manager and told to spread the gospel. He later responded “It was ludicrous … I told the lads they had to do what the manager wanted, and placate the parents who threatened to take their sons to other clubs. It was hard defending the indefensible. I was in the dressing room telling them: ‘Target those corners, hook it on when you’ve got your back to goal.’ How did I feel? Shit.” That youth team manager? Sam Allardyce.

But I get where you're going with this: Allardyce good, Parkinson good, Evatt bad, no nuance. And I'm so tired of arguing it. You can think what you want. I can ignore it and carry on with life. Hope you find happiness. xxx

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Seriously - IDK. It's not a signing to make me jump out of bed in the morning, but we'll see. I'm still glad we can make signings at all.

Just strikes me as a player very like Kachunga. Taller, not as quick shifting his feet; but a similar sort of grafting, intelligent footballer without the end product to be a top player.

Millwall fans hate him as a merc, but others seem to think he'd run through a brick wall for the team.

Doesn't take a lot, though, does it?

[BWFC_Insane]

Did you ever listen to him talk about the best chance of scoring a goal is to take the fewest touches before a shot or header. So from your box to the opponents box every pass or touch taken statistically reduces your chances of that attack being a goal. It’s obvious. But a fact. Sam was very clear, every action effectively increase the chance of not scoring.

No mate, I didn't. It's not something that he said on any of the dozens of occasions I interviewed him, for a football magazine, many of them specifically giving tactical advice.

As for advocating short moves. Among those who have queued to demolish the statistical assertations of Charles Reep - the WWII wing commander who advocated solely using "reachers", the long balls into the opponent's third for which John Beck's Cambridge set a new record with 219 in a game – is tactical history connoisseur Jonathan Wilson, who points out a fundamental flaw in the reasoning: while Reep’s numbers suggest 80 percent of goals came from moves of three passes or fewer, they also say 91.5 percent of moves were of this length, surely implying they were actually underperforming.

POMO/Reep acolytes like Beck tend to get so fascinated with the numbers that they avoid the football part of the equation. As Beck's own assistant has pointed out, at one point their stats man "could 'prove' that it was better to pass to the opposition left back than our right winger.” Sam was far from being that stubborn and inflexible.

When Beck took over at Preston, the caretaker manager was busted back down to being youth team manager and told to spread the gospel. He later responded “It was ludicrous … I told the lads they had to do what the manager wanted, and placate the parents who threatened to take their sons to other clubs. It was hard defending the indefensible. I was in the dressing room telling them: ‘Target those corners, hook it on when you’ve got your back to goal.’ How did I feel? Shit.” That youth team manager? Sam Allardyce.

But I get where you're going with this: Allardyce good, Parkinson good, Evatt bad, no nuance. And I'm so tired of arguing it. You can think what you want. I can ignore it and carry on with life. Hope you find happiness. xxx

It’s nothing at all to do with that. Allardyce was as you say a flexible manager who learned and adapted along the way.

He did believe in POMO though. But doing so doesn’t make you the next John Beck and he wasn’t. Because he also knew that quality on the park was essential. He just harnessed that quality far more efficiently than many managers would.

Evatts issue has nothing to do with the style of football he thinks is effective it’s that he’s not adapting to the situation. And Allardyce was the master of that. He made a mistake early on in his career letting Johansen go thinking that he was too small. Then by the time he realised it was a mistake it was too late. And of course from there he wasn’t scared of signing diminutive forwards anymore. The issue with Evatt right now is he’s a young manager with some of those qualities Allardyce had. But whereas Sam went and learned from others, other sports and his own mistakes, I sense Evatt is less open to that.

Probably the best manager around now in England is Klopp. And he’s not doing anything at all that Allardyce would. Or that Fergie would. The game moves on. But what doesn’t is the need to find a way to win with what you’ve got. And I think the best managers learn how to do that.

Evatt has by my reckoning tipped the balance from hungry, useful arrogance at times into sounding slightly deranged and again I only want him to get better here. Because as I’ve said many times there is plenty of ability in him as a manager. But the constant danger is over egging the style factor or the brand over results. There is nothing wrong with saying that our set pieces are shocking let’s work on one basic set piece for now and just deliver it. For a few years here Allardyce insisted on most free kicks being chipped into the middle of the box. We didn’t score from many but I suppose there was a structure to it and it pinned the opposition in at times and we scored off second plays. As we got better players we stopped doing that. There shouldn’t be this aversion to some basic football at times when struggling in order to get us going.

And I’d say bringing up John Beck whenever actually having a drilled and organised attacking set piece (even just one) that can be repeated is mentioned is probably the reverse of the lacking nuance you are complaining about.

[Harry Genshaw]

Charles Reep? I thought it was Charles Hughes who was the POMO chap

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Charles Reep? I thought it was Charles Hughes who was the POMO chap

Hughes was FA director of coaching and wholeheartedly believed in Reep. He came up with the POMO phrase from Reep's findings.

Right couple of Charlies...

[LeverEnd]

BTW if we sign Will Grigg I will be furious. Absolute waster.

Incandescent? (Geddit?)