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TonyDomingos
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Re: Stats

Post by TonyDomingos » Sat Feb 19, 2022 10:38 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sat Feb 19, 2022 9:19 pm
A good win for us today, but also wins for 5 of the 7 teams directly above us (3rd down).

Extrapolating the recent form tables (last 6, 8, 10 and 12 games) over the rest of the season, only in the scenario mimicking our last 8 games (ie W6 D1 L1) will we sneak into the playoffs, although last-10 form would take us agonisingly close.
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Screenshot 2022-02-19 at 21.09.55.png
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Worth remembering that Wednesday and Plymouth (plus Pompey) have to come to our place yet, and even our two trips to top-10 teams – Wigan and McDons – seem curiously set up for Wanderers. True, we could arguably do without facing Wigan, but in a weird way we have little to lose after the 0-4 at ours, and they're likely to come at us, which might give us a chance to get at them. Evatt is already looking forward to playing expansive MK Dons on their big pitch. The other four trips are to the bottom three plus Cheltenham. I think we can dream a while yet, so have a good Saturday night.

A statistician will tell you that last eight is the most reliable forecast. Fact.
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Worthy4England
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Re: Stats

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:12 am

Just had a quick peek at the L2 table from this day, last year - we were a lot closer on points to the team above the dots being only 3 behind and 6 from the automatics. We had, however, played a few games more than most, on 29.

Cambridge, who ended up one point in front of us, were at this stage 11 points in front of us having played a game more.

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GhostoftheBok
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Re: Stats

Post by GhostoftheBok » Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:15 am

One fewer spot to get into as well.

However, we're still obviously going up :grin:

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Re: Stats

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:35 am

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:15 am
One fewer spot to get into as well.

However, we're still obviously going up :grin:
8th March we were below the dots - 15th we were just above in 7th. There's a way to go yet! :D

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Re: Stats

Post by GhostoftheBok » Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:38 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:35 am
8th March we were below the dots - 15th we were just above in 7th. There's a way to go yet! :D
Didn't we also finish 6 points clear of the lowest-placed play-off side?

We can afford to be slightly off that pace this year.

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Re: Stats

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:50 am

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:38 am
Worthy4England wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:35 am
8th March we were below the dots - 15th we were just above in 7th. There's a way to go yet! :D
Didn't we also finish 6 points clear of the lowest-placed play-off side?

We can afford to be slightly off that pace this year.
I'm testing my memory, but I thought I recalled a couple of weekends/game days last season, where pretty much everyone above and around us did us a favour. Not quite a sure we'll get the same courtesy as last year. And of course, we still have tough aways coming up at MKD and Pies. I think anyone else above us, we have at home.

Just looking at it again though, we've all played a few more games vs this time last year - most teams including us at the 32/33 mark.

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Re: Stats

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:53 am

According to twitter win % with Gethin Jones playing is 61.

Win % without is 14.

Most important player? I think it speaks for itself.

I genuinely think he’s our best defender. And clearly we struggle without him massively.

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Re: Stats

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:57 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:53 am
According to twitter win % with Gethin Jones playing is 61.

Win % without is 14.

Most important player? I think it speaks for itself.

I genuinely think he’s our best defender. And clearly we struggle without him massively.
According to me on Twitter :wink: (hat tip to Flanners, we were discussing it on the way back from Oxford). His win percentage will also be higher now, that was before Wimbledon.

Also the two wins without him were home to Crewe and Donny.

Correlation isn’t always causation but we look a lot happier with him in the team. I still worry we can be bullied aerially (not that we weren’t at Burton without him) but overall we are a much more fluid team with Geth.

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Re: Stats

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:02 am

What's Charles and Morley's win %....I'd be surprised if they weren't both above 61%. (Bearing in mind Charles didn't come on until the end at Burton)....

Edit: Not a pop at Jones :-)

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Re: Stats

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:12 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:02 am
What's Charles and Morley's win %....I'd be surprised if they weren't both above 61%. (Bearing in mind Charles didn't come on until the end at Burton)....

Edit: Not a pop at Jones :-)
Soccerbase will quickly work them out for you via Player Filter (you can toggle sub apps on/off), but it does all comps; for league-only - and let's face it, the Sherpa doesn't count - you'll need pen, paper and a couple of minutes.

https://www.soccerbase.com/teams/team.s ... bs=results

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Re: Stats

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:14 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:12 am
Worthy4England wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:02 am
What's Charles and Morley's win %....I'd be surprised if they weren't both above 61%. (Bearing in mind Charles didn't come on until the end at Burton)....

Edit: Not a pop at Jones :-)
Soccerbase will quickly work them out for you via Player Filter (you can toggle sub apps on/off), but it does all comps; for league-only - and let's face it, the Sherpa doesn't count - you'll need pen, paper and a couple of minutes.

https://www.soccerbase.com/teams/team.s ... bs=results
Was that a polite "fcuk off and work it out yourself?" :-) BRB.

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Re: Stats

Post by nicholaldo » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:18 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:53 am
According to twitter win % with Gethin Jones playing is 61.

Win % without is 14.

Most important player? I think it speaks for itself.

I genuinely think he’s our best defender. And clearly we struggle without him massively.

He's clearly very influencial within the group and there can be no doubt we're better with him than without but I don't think that statistic proves it.

From November through to the turn of the year we barely had a fit starting eleven let alone a squad.

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Re: Stats

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:19 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:14 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:12 am
Worthy4England wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:02 am
What's Charles and Morley's win %....I'd be surprised if they weren't both above 61%. (Bearing in mind Charles didn't come on until the end at Burton)....

Edit: Not a pop at Jones :-)
Soccerbase will quickly work them out for you via Player Filter (you can toggle sub apps on/off), but it does all comps; for league-only - and let's face it, the Sherpa doesn't count - you'll need pen, paper and a couple of minutes.

https://www.soccerbase.com/teams/team.s ... bs=results
Was that a polite "fcuk off and work it out yourself?" :-) BRB.
Give a man a fish...(Speaking of which, some of us are trying to eat an egg and fishfinger butty :mrgreen: )

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Re: Stats

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:23 am

Oh great. Two things I'm allergic to!

77% Charles. Morley missed Wycombe as he hadn't signed, and was sub at Burton, so he's about 87%

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Re: Stats

Post by Prufrock » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:25 am

nicholaldo wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:18 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:53 am
According to twitter win % with Gethin Jones playing is 61.

Win % without is 14.

Most important player? I think it speaks for itself.

I genuinely think he’s our best defender. And clearly we struggle without him massively.

He's clearly very influencial within the group and there can be no doubt we're better with him than without but I don't think that statistic proves it.

From November through to the turn of the year we barely had a fit starting eleven let alone a squad.
Well yeah. It's interesting, but I don't think it's a coincidence that when we was out we also had no midfield!
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Re: Stats

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:47 pm

As has been noted, we lost our first two games this year…

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Re: Stats

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Fri Jul 29, 2022 1:28 pm

Interesting. For the next phase, obviously.
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Re: Stats

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:53 am

To use Brommers' succinct descriptions:

PPDA = Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action - lower figure indicates higher level of pressing, higher figure indicates lower level of pressing

High Turnover = the number of sequences that start in open play and begin 40m or less from the opponent's goal


So (1) we are working very hard at the press, hardest in the division
(2) we still need to be better at it - and the most effective team at it comes to town this weekend, so let's have no brainfarts at the back, lads

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Re: Stats

Post by boltonboris » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:04 am

So we're going to be having kittens every time Santos gets the ball off Trafford this weekend?

Reckon we'll see more long balls out to the flanks?
"I've got the ball now. It's a bit worn, but I've got it"

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Re: Stats

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:31 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:53 am
To use Brommers' succinct descriptions:

PPDA = Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action - lower figure indicates higher level of pressing, higher figure indicates lower level of pressing

High Turnover = the number of sequences that start in open play and begin 40m or less from the opponent's goal


So (1) we are working very hard at the press, hardest in the division
(2) we still need to be better at it - and the most effective team at it comes to town this weekend, so let's have no brainfarts at the back, lads
This is why I feel we need that ball winner who can be mobile round the pitch. We are good at pressing but don’t win the ball back enough.

And on a side note when we do we don’t make enough of it.

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