Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun Jan 16, 2022 1:14 pm

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 1:03 pm
That was Evatt's football at it's most industrial yesterday. Still a lot of lovely football and a desire to pass it, but an inclination to be low risk (knocking it out of play and resetting, hitting out balls etc).

The growth in that system will be playing more, not less, of Evatt's passing patterns as the players familiarise themselves with the new system and the younger players stabilise.

A Muamba-type in for the more creative mids is....unlikely. Or more accurately, unhelpful. Movement and passing between the lines made us tick.

A bigger, stronger, faster version of Williams? Sign me up.
I disagree. Yesterday was the absolute way to win games at league one level. It was about the muck and nettles of the battle doing that job and then getting the ball forwards very quickly and with impact.

I think we will have a range of games where we have more or less of the ball. As you’d expect. But yesterday established some first principles of this league and it’s requirements. The first principle has to be a solid team unit and yesterday for the first time arguably this season we had as one that looked relatable. As in there weren’t lods of scrambles or saves to protect our goal.

I think we’ve abandoned the idea of playing like Liverpool with a high line because we simply aren’t good enough to do it and in reality it won’t get you out of this league. And what we did yesterday is far more realistic for the players we have and are likely to sign.

Football is a basic game and yesterday we reduced it to a simple idea of compacting the team in defence and attacking at speed when their attack broke down. We can be better at it for sure. But if we start trying to stretch the pitch again I can’t see it ending well. Fortunately from his comments I think Evatt knows and his seeming desire to add a target man in.

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by The_Gun » Sun Jan 16, 2022 1:15 pm

That was the first game I wasn’t able to watch for ages, so obviously we went and turned in what sounds like a top performance.

Is the consensus that the boy Trafford continues as first choice in net?

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by GhostoftheBok » Sun Jan 16, 2022 1:16 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 1:14 pm
I disagree.
I know. And on this, the day after a win, I completely agree with you.

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Jan 16, 2022 1:21 pm

The_Gun wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 1:15 pm
That was the first game I wasn’t able to watch for ages, so obviously we went and turned in what sounds like a top performance.

Is the consensus that the boy Trafford continues as first choice in net?
Yes here...I think having jumped over the "drop the Keeper" gap. Grew into the 90 minutes.

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Jan 16, 2022 1:26 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 1:21 pm
The_Gun wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 1:15 pm
That was the first game I wasn’t able to watch for ages, so obviously we went and turned in what sounds like a top performance.

Is the consensus that the boy Trafford continues as first choice in net?
Yes here...I think having jumped over the "drop the Keeper" gap. Grew into the 90 minutes.
I missed the first 45 (and thus a couple of hairy early moments) but by the end he looked confident. As with other players yesterday, he wasn't afraid to keep it simple at times; he did, to my eye (I haven't checked the stats), therefore lose possession a lot more often than Dixon does, but that's what happens when you go longer more often. It worked yesterday, most importantly with the lovely big fat juicy zero nestled next to the opponents' name. Well done to the lad, and long may it continue.

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by Prufrock » Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:30 pm

Some longer form thoughts from me on yesterday.

First of all, I don't think it's an accurate reflection at all to say we let Ipswich have the ball and chose to compress the space as a gameplan, nor do I think we decided as a gamplan to be more direct, rather that was a side effect of other decisions that we did make.

For me the most obvious change was that there was a clear mentality at the back of "do not make mistakes". That meant that although we still tried to play through Ipswich, we were a lot happier to go longer when pressed both from the defenders and Trafford. I think this is a good thing, and much more in line with what Evatt did at Barrow with Quigley but couldn't do last year as we didn't have the forwards. It also helps that Trafford is much better going long than Dixon who when rushed can barely reach the halfway line and even then with a flat Exocet trajectory that is tough to do anything with. Evatt has talked at length about how we wants defenders to be good on the ball a) so that they can build attacks, and b) because that can then draw the other team out to stop you playing out so you can then go direct and have more space up the pitch. Again, all good, but requires an opposition who will do that.

We absolutely did not just let Ipswich have the ball, Baka and Charles ran themselves silly in the first half and tried not to give the Ipswich back three time on the ball. Because we only had two up there there were times they got out on the other side and we had to drop in, which is what should happen, but that wasn't our starting point. It's also not true that we decided to drop deeper, when pressing there we had a high line, Fossey and John both went and closed down deep in their half and we backed the pace of Santos, Jones and Johnstone. Again, when they got out to the other side then we dropped off, as we should do. But it's not true at all IMO that we changed the underlying approach, other than risk/reward at the back.

Because we had one fewer body at the top end, it meant they could keep the ball for longer spells, but the transitions, press high then drop off when they get out to the other side meant the midfield was more stretched if anything first half and a big reason why MJ suffered.

A huge part of why the game turned out like it did yesterday was the way Ipswich played, shape and style. They also played 352 so clear match ups, particularly WB v WB, and they tried to keep the ball so our back 3 were never really isolated. A real test for this shape, trying to play this way, will be when we come against a back 4, and/or a team more prepared to go direct. Against a 3, with WB v WB, CHarles and Baka only had to cover the width of the 18 yard box. Against a 4, when Fossey and John can't go as high, we're going to really struggle to put any pressure on high up the pitch. That's why eventually I think we'll either need to go 343, back to 433, or bin off the high press.

That's defensively. Offensively, it made a huge difference that Ipswich also came to play, Said it before but you can't manufacture these games where we win with less possession by just giving the other side more of the ball. If they're parking the bus, all you do is give them more counter attacks. I do think we've been overly cautious in the past in not putting crosses in once we've got into good areas, but you're not going to see us go front to back like we did yesterday when pressed against a side that doesn't press. As an example, if a side come and sit off 40 yards on our goal kicks unlike Ipswich yesterday you're going to see every single one taken short. It will be really interesting to see how we go against teams sat in. That Jones and Johnstone are comfortable in the ball means they can step in and create overloads, and Fossey/John keep the pitch really wide. But I think there are still going to be plenty of games at home against teams sitting in where we look slow and lethargic.

A final point after he was rightly criticised on Tuesday, Santos was immense yesterday. His only limitations are between the ears and he had the risk/reward calibration much better tuned! A couple of box body on the line blocks too.
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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by nicholaldo » Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:58 pm

An excellent summary, Pru. Many of my thoughts matched your own but I wouldn't have been able to express them as clearly and in as much detail.

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Jan 16, 2022 3:35 pm

nicholaldo wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:58 pm
An excellent summary, Pru. Many of my thoughts matched your own but I wouldn't have been able to express them as clearly and in as much detail.
He's good, isn't he, for an xG sceptic :mrgreen:

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by OrtonCakeBingoBongo » Sun Jan 16, 2022 3:44 pm

Disappointing to lose but feared the more successive wins our new manager McKenna racked up after coming in the greater hype would build up and our fans would be hoping for something that was or is, beyond us. At least a first defeat has occurred and people can keep their feet on the ground and be a little more realistic of what to expect.

We made mistakes yesterday, mistakes that cost us and swung the game Boltons way, but we faded after a good start and reverted to play seen all to many times before. Bonne staying with us from QPR for the rest of the season is a bonus but he's not the player he once was here and Norwood apart we don't really have any attackers you could label reliable. Walton has come on leaps and bounds after conceding six in the game between us on his debut last autumn but made an error yesterday. Still think he can become or is a highly prized asset in our team.

One thing that annoys is that we often play teams that have been on losing runs and go into a fixture expecting to win but throw the opportunity away and give teams points and victories. In the end Bolton were value for the win. Always insist that promotion won't happen for us this season, we're simply too inconsistent, not only that all the players we signed in the summer - and there were a bloody whole lot of them - are collectively not good enough. Mind you that is the reality, this is the Third League after all, not so long ago both clubs were playing in the Premier League with levels of ambition.

It's unfortunate to see the slide both teams have suffered, the only question remains how long before either team can once again establish themselves at the highest level and provide something uplifting to it's kind of long-suffering fanbase.

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:07 pm

OrtonCakeBingoBongo wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 3:44 pm
One thing that annoys is that we often play teams that have been on losing runs and go into a fixture expecting to win but throw the opportunity away and give teams points and victories.
It's a trait most fans feel their club demonstrates, a feeling exacerbated by confirmation bias, but it certainly holds true here, OCBB.

You didn't play badly by any stretch, and you're only eight points - a three-game week of favourable results – off the play-offs. I understand the hurt that followed the hype you boys had, but expectation is something players, managers and clubs have to deal with –unless they have none, which can only suggest existential ennui. Those who try can fail, but the true failures are those who never try.

Good luck to you for the rest of the season. I'm not one for the idea of a hierarchy of clubs but I have a lot of time for Ipswich, despite the Barry Knight episode. Here's to the future.

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:22 pm

Far too early to be moving on from Barry. As DSB says, we know a team that excels on stopping bad runs. Truth be told, had we played like yesterday, we probably wouldn't be on a bad run...

Good luck for rest of the season OCBB.

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:36 pm

The essential flipside of confirmation bias is forgetting the many times it didn't happen.

Before we won 5-2 at Portman Road, Ipswich had taken three points from their first five games (W0 D3 L2).

Charlton had won one league game in their first 9 (D3 L5) before we beat them 4-1.

Shrewsbury were W2 D2 L6 of their first 10 before we beat them.

Crewe had won one of their first 16 (D6 L9) and picked up one point from their last five games before we beat them.

Donny had won three of their first 17 (D4 L10) before we beat them.

While welcoming our early wins over Lincoln and Oxford (both in August, therefore with a a small sample size of 'form') one could argue that yesterday’s game was the only time this season we’ve beaten somebody that *wasn’t* on woeful form. But you start with the low-hanging fruit and build up....

Sorry, Orton.

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:30 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:36 pm
The essential flipside of confirmation bias is forgetting the many times it didn't happen.

Before we won 5-2 at Portman Road, Ipswich had taken three points from their first five games (W0 D3 L2).

Charlton had won one league game in their first 9 (D3 L5) before we beat them 4-1.

Shrewsbury were W2 D2 L6 of their first 10 before we beat them.

Crewe had won one of their first 16 (D6 L9) and picked up one point from their last five games before we beat them.

Donny had won three of their first 17 (D4 L10) before we beat them.

While welcoming our early wins over Lincoln and Oxford (both in August, therefore with a a small sample size of 'form') one could argue that yesterday’s game was the only time this season we’ve beaten somebody that *wasn’t* on woeful form. But you start with the low-hanging fruit and build up....

Sorry, Orton.
I know that this will bring jeers of derision but I think yesterday might be our best performance of the season. Yes there are early eye catching results but I’m not convinced they weren’t a promotion bounce against some at the time hapless opponents who we caught off guard at the right time.

But yesterday we played a decent side, in a tight game, stood up to it and took the game deep and found a way to win. I think it’s repeatable. Not every week or anything crazy but I think we can get more results in that manner than we will with the reverse fixture as pleasing as that scoreline was or for example our win against Oxford at home that could have been any score on another day.

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:45 pm

I shan't derisively jeer the proposal but I will suggest a slight amend. I'm not sure if it's our best performance of the season, but it might be our best result.

You know I worried that big early-season wins at Ipswich and Charlton were outliers. They came, though, during a largely positive freshly-promoted 'bounce' and, as shown above, against off-form teams. This one was harder-earned, perhaps better planned (as in more tailored to the oppo), more wisely reactive to on-field events (rather than following a blueprint). It's certainly the sort of win we need more of. And all this after a morale-sapping, table-diving run of defeats, injuries and absences. Hats off.

Whether it's as good as those early big away wins... I dunno. We only had 8 attempts on goal: we haven't had fewer since last season, so the "performance" is entirely contingent on the result. If we had so few attempts on goal and lost, there'd be understandable upset. Well, there certainly was after Fleetwood and Accy, when we also had 8 attempts.

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:30 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:45 pm
I shan't derisively jeer the proposal but I will suggest a slight amend. I'm not sure if it's our best performance of the season, but it might be our best result.

You know I worried that big early-season wins at Ipswich and Charlton were outliers. They came, though, during a largely positive freshly-promoted 'bounce' and, as shown above, against off-form teams. This one was harder-earned, perhaps better planned (as in more tailored to the oppo), more wisely reactive to on-field events (rather than following a blueprint). It's certainly the sort of win we need more of. And all this
Whether it's as good as those early big away wins... I dunno. We only had 8 attempts on goal: we haven't had fewer since last season, so the "performance" is entirely contingent on the result. If we had so few attempts on goal and lost, there'd be understandable upset. Well, there certainly was after Fleetwood and Accy, when we also had 8 attempts.
I’d measure a performance more by how we restrict the opposition. There were relatively few chances for Ipswich yesterday. 3 shots on target. But for example against Oxford at home they had more shots than we did on target so on the day we got a bit of luck perhaps whereas yesterday we ‘controlled the game without the ball’ sufficiently well to feel we weren’t going to concede a goal.

I still think we are a bit off the pace in terms of goals in the side. And that makes keeping teams out more critical.

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:45 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:30 pm
I’d measure a performance more by how we restrict the opposition. There were relatively few chances for Ipswich yesterday. 3 shots on target.
Course you would :mrgreen:

Sheffield Wednesday had fewer shots on target against us, and I recall no cartwheels of joy. As I say, results matter, and losing after a defensive performance can in many ways feel worse than losing after taking the game to the oppo. Either way it's zero points, but after that key performance indicator I start looking at how much we've actually created. Sneaking wins always feels less sustainable to me.

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:21 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:45 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:30 pm
I’d measure a performance more by how we restrict the opposition. There were relatively few chances for Ipswich yesterday. 3 shots on target.
Course you would :mrgreen:

Sheffield Wednesday had fewer shots on target against us, and I recall no cartwheels of joy. As I say, results matter, and losing after a defensive performance can in many ways feel worse than losing after taking the game to the oppo. Either way it's zero points, but after that key performance indicator I start looking at how much we've actually created. Sneaking wins always feels less sustainable to me.
It’s a balance. I always feel teams that don’t concede readily only need one good addition up top to really fire. Whereas teams that concede a lot often take a lot of fixing.

I don’t think many teams in history have been successful yet leaked a disproportionate number of goals yet plenty have done well on the back of winning more tight games than they lose. I think personally that you have far more chance of success if you are harder to score against than you do if you are free scoring but free conceding.

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:34 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 1:26 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 1:21 pm
The_Gun wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 1:15 pm
Is the consensus that the boy Trafford continues as first choice in net?
Yes here...I think having jumped over the "drop the Keeper" gap. Grew into the 90 minutes.
I missed the first 45 (and thus a couple of hairy early moments) but by the end he looked confident. As with other players yesterday, he wasn't afraid to keep it simple at times; he did, to my eye (I haven't checked the stats), therefore lose possession a lot more often than Dixon does, but that's what happens when you go longer more often. It worked yesterday, most importantly with the lovely big fat juicy zero nestled next to the opponents' name. Well done to the lad, and long may it continue.
Had chance to check this and compare his (admittedly very small) data set with Dixon's and GIlks's similarly weeny one:
.
Screenshot 2022-01-16 at 19.30.11.png
Screenshot 2022-01-16 at 19.30.11.png (35.67 KiB) Viewed 806 times
.
That's a lot of ball turnover: Basically 26 clearance-style kicks of which we won only 5. That's how you construct a low possession percentage... keep giving it away.

Obviously we could expect our players to win it more often - and as Pru has noted, with Ipswich pressing high we chose to go over the top much more often than we might do if a team drops off and lets us play from the back; that'll be one to watch. But compared to Dixon, who had a reputation for giving the ball away but "only" did so half the time he went long, that's a big old number.

Not that it means he shouldn't start the next game, not by any means. But it's what happens with big clearances, and it's why the very best teams - which we obviously ain't, not yet - rarely do them.

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by Worthy4England » Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:53 pm

That 0.3 at the bottom of Dixon's, is that how you lose to Hartlepool? :-) Can work on distribution...As you say, small sample it felt safer yesterday, but that was a combo of things

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Re: Looking for traction to avoid the blues - Ipswich (H), 3pm Sat 15th Jan

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Jan 16, 2022 8:03 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:53 pm
That 0.3 at the bottom of Dixon's, is that how you lose to Hartlepool? :-) Can work on distribution...As you say, small sample it felt safer yesterday, but that was a combo of things
It is indeed how you do it, but it won't be in that data, which is L1 only.

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