Can we Endeavour to solve the Oxford Puzzle? Away to The Uni, Sat 12 Feb, 3-0'clock.

[TonyDomingos]

I think we should be targeting 75 points…if it gets us play offs (think it will), great. Get loads of funny results at the business end when teams looking doomed suddenly pick up form.

We could do with Rotherham winning at Sheffield Wednesday this afternoon. Currently, 0-0 with half an hour to go. EDIT: 0-1 to Rotherham as I'm typing!

[The_Gun]

I think we should be targeting 75 points…if it gets us play offs (think it will), great. Get loads of funny results at the business end when teams looking doomed suddenly pick up form.

We could do with Rotherham winning at Sheffield Wednesday this afternoon. Currently, 0-0 with half an hour to go. EDIT: 0-1 to Rotherham as I'm typing!

Aye, getting to the stage now where I’m starting to check the results of those above us.

Let’s be real though, the playoffs remain only a very slim possibility, and I’m generally overly optimistic when it comes to Bolton.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I think we should be targeting 75 points…if it gets us play offs (think it will), great. Get loads of funny results at the business end when teams looking doomed suddenly pick up form.

We could do with Rotherham winning at Sheffield Wednesday this afternoon. Currently, 0-0 with half an hour to go. EDIT: 0-1 to Rotherham as I'm typing!

Aye, getting to the stage now where I’m starting to check the results of those above us.

Let’s be real though, the playoffs remain only a very slim possibility, and I’m generally overly optimistic when it comes to Bolton.

FT Wednesday 0-2 Rotherham.

[GhostoftheBok]

In this run in we had to get results against our 6 "promotion rivals."

We've beaten both Sunderland and Oxford. We still need to beat at least two of MK Dons, Plymouth, Portsmouth and Sheff Weds - only MK Dons is away. We've also got to go away to Wigan.

In each of those "rivals" cases we basically need to beat them and win three more 'other' fixtures than they do over the same time period in order to finish above them.

As has been said on here, it's a big ask. One bit of bad luck, one awful refereeing decision or a couple of injuries can derail us completely. We could just lose form. All sorts of things can go wrong. However, it's there to be done and the players clearly believe they can do it. I'm here for the ride.

[Tails07]

In this run in we had to get results against our 6 "promotion rivals."

We've beaten both Sunderland and Oxford. We still need to beat at least two of MK Dons, Plymouth, Portsmouth and Sheff Weds - only MK Dons is away. We've also got to go away to Wigan.

In each of those "rivals" cases we basically need to beat them and win three more 'other' fixtures than they do over the same time period in order to finish above them.

As has been said on here, it's a big ask. One bit of bad luck, one awful refereeing decision or a couple of injuries can derail us completely. We could just lose form. All sorts of things can go wrong. However, it's there to be done and the players clearly believe they can do it. I'm here for the ride.

Running the numbers, I would agree with this. If we lose to all the above promotion rivals in the worst case. We would need to beat everyone else in the run in to get to 75 points.

Current 45
Burton W 48
Wimbledon W 51
Lincoln W 54
MK Dons L 54
Gillingham W 57
Morecambe W 60
Plymouth L 60
Crewe W 63
Portsmouth L 63
Wigan L 63
Sheff Wed L 63
Doncaster W 66
Accrington W 69
Cheltenham W 72
Fleetwood W 75

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

A great day. Haven't had chance to check the workings but we reckoned it was the first away win I'd been at in 35 months, since when we've had two relegations and a promotion.

Oxford's Manor Ground was a dump but it was interesting, with approximately five different stands. The Kassam Stadium is a dump and dull too, with three almost identical stands (the main one is an unimpressive double-decker). Maybe if they move again – as they want to, as the hated Kassam still owns this place – they'll get the right number of stands. Certainly I hope they'll design that one better: it's been much longer than three years since I saw such half-time overcrowding as there was in the pitifully small, badly laid-out concourse under the away section.

Then again, I suppose Bolton are massive everywhere they gooooooooo, and the 1,750 away fans certainly kept up a great racket for the majority of the game, only significantly quietening for the five minutes between Oxford's second and ours. There does seem to be a genuine belief among the supporters that would have seemed ludicrous three months ago; the opposing forces of momentum and inertia are still much underestimated in football.

For the third successive season, Evatt has given a stalled squad momentum by switching systems. At Barrow in the sticky autumn of 2019 he switched from a back four to a back three and his side won the league. Last January he did the opposite at Bolton and won a second successive promotion. This time he's reverted a leaking and largely goalfree back-four system to a back three and his side keeps finding different ways to win: initially through clean sheets, but lately through dragging themselves level with, or past, an opposition scoring first. On two successive away Saturdays Bolton have conceded first, which has often been a death sentence – but Morecambe were pinned back despite a man advantage, in midweek at home Charlton's leveller was soon rendered impotent, and here Bolton twice fought quickly back from going behind before finding a winner late on. It's no bad habit.

Oxford are a decent side and the game was as open as I'd expected. Both sides tried to transition quickly through midfield, and that's where most of the five goals came from. A wide centre-back pushing on into midfield, George Johnston attempted to beat his man and lost the ball; tracking his opponent all the way back to the corner of the penalty area, he gave away a free-kick expertly despatched by Billy Bodin. But within two minutes Bolton were level when the wonderfully aware Aaron Morley rapidly fed Declan John wide to thunder a shot low into the opposite bottom corner. Just after the half-hour Baka should have had a free-kick but play was waved on by the most genuinely astonishing referee I've seen in a while – nobody will ever get full agreement, but you don't expect four or five decisions which cause genuine puzzlement – and ten seconds later Bodin wriggled inside MJ to find the far corner again.

By that time Evatt had had to shuffle his midfield, Kieran Lee going down with a heel problem connected to the bone-spur problem that manager and player had hoped could be managed until the summer; perhaps scans will suggest a more imminent solution is needed. On came Kyle Dempsey, who struggled to get into the game in Lee’s hybrid 8/10 position, often finding himself ahead of the ball and somewhat rushing his decisions. But the fact Evatt had an experienced, fee-paid midfielder to come on marks a vast improvement from autumn when his only option was three kids on each other’s shoulders in a trench coat.

Just behind him was an exemplar of how to fit into a midfield. Aaron Morley is almost half a decade younger than Dempsey but is patrolling the Bolton midfield like he owns the joint. Morley it was who spread the ball to Declan John’s feet for the first, and it was Morley’s cross that was headed away but only as far as Marlon Fossey, who calmly used his left foot to find the far corner again. Fossey sprang away in celebration and is an eye-catching find, but the young Lancastrian is also a hell of a signing: his distribution is vital to Bolton’s fast-moving, wide-ranging game – and when the out-ball isn’t on, his calmness on the ball helps Wanderers retain possession while they work a different angle. He’s a pleasure to watch.

But when you have nine games in 29 days, you have to rotate – especially when your game is based on pressing and speed. Evatt has been doing so with his front three out of choice and his back three out of necessity, with Johnston and Jones being dipped by Aimson, but his central four – the two wingbacks plus Williams and Morley – had played every minute so far of that Saturday-Tuesday run. So it was only mildly surprising when Evatt’s second substitution gave the youngster a rest, with Dempsey dropping back from the hybrid 8/10 to a more orthodox 8 role.

That was to accommodate our leading scorer and arguably best player. Dapo was always going to come on at some point, and his appearance in the 67th minute – the second half’s midway point – suggests an element of premeditation, perhaps augmented with increased confidence due to Oxford’s double goalscorer Billy Bodin having just been substituted himself.

It certainly showed balls. Evatt, who reverted to the keeper-free bench, is a man built on confidence, a hand-rubber who loves an unlikely challenge, and Bolton’s current situation could have been precision engineered for him: with a lot of points to make up in order to have any chance of reaching the play-offs – an outcome largely laughable in the dark days of late 2021 – he can afford to gamble on attacking moves to chase three points rather than settle for one… especially with more game changers on the bench than he can bring on.

So when Dapo did come on, it wasn’t as a No.10, not really. Although Dap dug back, as Dapo does (including a rapid yellow for heel-clipping), he spent most of the final quarter at the vanguard of a front three, seeking a win rather than a draw, exploring rather than shoring. Dempsey and MJ largely stayed diligent in the midfield four, and the wingbacks too found themselves operating more as defenders than attackers, not least as Bolton defended a bagful of free kicks and corners.

But this team will always look to attack. And when Johnston received the ball in his defensive half-space, he drove forward into the gap afforded by Declan John’s daringly high width. A calculatedly risky forward diagonal found final substitute Bodvarsson, who controlled it round a retreating midfielder and spread wide to Gethin Jones, also steaming forward in his half-space.

The next six seconds were textbook training-ground stuff. Jones controlled the pass, looked up, nodded to his right-side buddy Fossey and fizzed an alley-ball down the inside-right channel. Fossey hit the space, met the ball with a first-time cross and Bakayoko scored his third in four games, all of them coming from wingbacks’ crosses: Fossey from the right at Oxford, John from the left at Morecambe, John from the right at home to Cambridge.

It’s not an accident that the wingbacks are so integral to the attacking play. This is very far from a back five. It’s a system designed to give us attacking overloads. It suits the skillsets of several players. And it’s working.

This was the fifth of the nine games in 29 days that will go a long way to deciding Bolton’s season. Before it started, Wanderers were 15th, 14pts below the final play-off place and only 5pts above the top relegation spot. They’re now 10th, 8pts below the playoffs and a surely safe 15pts above trouble.

Moreover, with the exception of relentless Rotherham, the top six are wobbling. Wigan, Wycombe and Oxford have won one in four, Sunderland none in four. The gap might be too big, but it won’t be for want of effort and bravery. Right now, only three teams – the top two and rock-bottom Donny – have drawn fewer games. I wouldn’t bet on us drawing many more – unless we’re a goal or two down with ten minutes to go. Pull up a chair and have hope in your heart: this is gonna be good to watch.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Oh one other thing: this might be the only ground in the country where you could have adverts for both Ox Boilers and Ethically Sourced Coconuts.

[jmjhb]

But the fact Evatt had an experienced, fee-paid midfielder to come on marks a vast improvement from autumn when his only option was three kids on each other’s shoulders in a trench coat.

When did Vincent Adultman sign for us?

[GhostoftheBok]

Mostly agree with DSB.

Most looked a shade tired, so the win was amazing.

Morley and Charles need a night off against Burton, unless the magic fitness data people say otherwise. To me they looked leggy.

I'd have Dempsey in alongside Williams, where he looked assured against Oxford. If Baka can do another 90 he's earned that position, if not I'd be looking at a three of Sadlier, Dad Bod and Dapo.

It'd be a big call, but I think we need to rotate at some stage and the most important thing will be winning every home game until the end of the season. We can still beat Burton, but that's the game to reshuffle for.

I might even be tempted to rest a few others, but it'd be a huge call from Evatt to genuinely go deep on the rotation and risk interrupting the flow of the team.

[TANGODANCER]

Good report D.S.B.Thanks.