Where will we finish?

[brommers95]

[Worthy4England]

A Super-computer weighs in! (TL:DR - 10th on 70 points)

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/19 ... rcomputer/

[brommers95]

Anyone know when might we expect to hear about any punishment for Charles’ Twitter indiscretions?

All gone very quiet on that front but a ban for him could seriously hinder any playoff aspirations.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

A Super-computer weighs in! (TL:DR - 10th on 70 points)

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/19 ... rcomputer/

Balls to that super-computer, which is now at lest one round out of date and, as it gives Sunderland a 31% chance of making the play-offs to our 18%, is clearly off its head. What we're all waiting for round here is the update from Barnet's Form Guide Spreadsheet. So here goes...

We're not quite making the play-offs. Probably. But Sunderland sure aren't.

Extrapolating every top-11 team's last-6 form over their remaining games, we'll get to 77pts - 2pts shy of 6th-placed Oxford.
On last-8 form, it's almost too close to call: we reach 79.5pts (7th), Ipswich are 79.6pts (6th). (I know you can't get fractional points. Just roll with it.)
On last-10 form, we sail to 81pts and not just the play-offs but 5th, there to face Plymouth.
On last-12 form, though, we only make 76pts and thus finish 8th, although still within 2.8pts of the play-offs' bottom team, Sheffield Wednesday.

And there's the caveat. Wednesday have to come to ours, as do Plymouth and Pompey. I'll keep watchign the numbers, cos it passes a minute, but the more we win the better our chances - especially if we're beating rivals.

[Worthy4England]

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_cal ... eague-one/

Sir could have his very own go, if he wanted. Of course we finished ahead of Sunderland. in 9th on 78 points. So yes, I agree the Supercomputer knows nowt.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_cal ... eague-one/

Sir could have his very own go, if he wanted. Of course we finished ahead of Sunderland. in 9th on 78 points. So yes, I agree the Supercomputer knows nowt.

I'll bookmark it for later. I still think another nine wins will do it, especially if some of them are 6-pointers. What fun to find out.

[Bruce Rioja]

A Super-computer weighs in!

The Met Office also own a 'Super Computer'.

Just sayin', like.

[TonyDomingos]

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_cal ... eague-one/

Sir could have his very own go, if he wanted. Of course we finished ahead of Sunderland. in 9th on 78 points. So yes, I agree the Supercomputer knows nowt.

I'll bookmark it for later. I still think another nine wins will do it, especially if some of them are 6-pointers. What fun to find out.

I think it'll require a point or two more than nine wins. But, as you say, it will be fun until it's mathematically impossible. Crucial we don't lose on Saturday, otherwise, assuming we lose at the Pie Eaters, we'd have to win every other game (maybe get away with one draw).

[Worthy4England]

A Super-computer weighs in!

The Met Office also own a 'Super Computer'.

Just sayin', like.

Is this a reference to the Fish event? That supercomputer had about 20% of the computational power of a smartphone today...I'd be surprised if it could've found the Bay of Biscay if it'd had been plugged in on the beach....

Their new one is quite a beast, but if the algorithm's shoite, it'll just get the wrong forecast in a fraction of the time....

[Bruce Rioja]

A Super-computer weighs in!

The Met Office also own a 'Super Computer'.

Just sayin', like.

Is this a reference to the Fish event? That supercomputer had about 20% of the computational power of a smartphone today...I'd be surprised if it could've found the Bay of Biscay if it'd had been plugged in on the beach....

Their new one is quite a beast, but if the algorithm's shoite, it'll just get the wrong forecast in a fraction of the time....

No, it's a reference to their brand new one which still couldn't tell you what the weather was doing even if it was putting the fecking bins out.

[Worthy4England]

A Super-computer weighs in!

The Met Office also own a 'Super Computer'.

Just sayin', like.

Is this a reference to the Fish event? That supercomputer had about 20% of the computational power of a smartphone today...I'd be surprised if it could've found the Bay of Biscay if it'd had been plugged in on the beach....

Their new one is quite a beast, but if the algorithm's shoite, it'll just get the wrong forecast in a fraction of the time....

No, it's a reference to their brand new one which still couldn't tell you what the weather was doing even if it was putting the fecking bins out.

Oh. The good news is, it's a lot quicker at getting the wrong forecast, which should give them more opportunity to look out of the window and check. It's very shiny.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Anyone know when might we expect to hear about any punishment for Charles’ Twitter indiscretions?

All gone very quiet on that front but a ban for him could seriously hinder any playoff aspirations.

I don't. But I have just seen this new post from @TheFootballLaw about Marc Bola, earlier in the season. It's somewhat dry and I haven't got time to read it, what with being about to start a nine-hour shift on a European news desk. Anything happening?

https://www.sports.legal/2022/02/the-fa-v-marc-bola/

[Bruce Rioja]

Anyone know when might we expect to hear about any punishment for Charles’ Twitter indiscretions?

All gone very quiet on that front but a ban for him could seriously hinder any playoff aspirations.

I don't. But I have just seen this new post from @TheFootballLaw about Marc Bola, earlier in the season. It's somewhat dry and I haven't got time to read it, what with being about to start a nine-hour shift on a European news desk. Anything happening?

https://www.sports.legal/2022/02/the-fa-v-marc-bola/

'the Player was 14 years old... ' Yep, get him hanged. Dear me!

[The_Gun]

Anyone know when might we expect to hear about any punishment for Charles’ Twitter indiscretions?

All gone very quiet on that front but a ban for him could seriously hinder any playoff aspirations.

I don't. But I have just seen this new post from @TheFootballLaw about Marc Bola, earlier in the season. It's somewhat dry and I haven't got time to read it, what with being about to start a nine-hour shift on a European news desk. Anything happening?

https://www.sports.legal/2022/02/the-fa-v-marc-bola/

Maybe a three game ban for Charles, but given how slow moving the relevant authorities seem to be, I would hazard that this is most likely to only be imposed next season.

[Prufrock]

Anyone know when might we expect to hear about any punishment for Charles’ Twitter indiscretions?

All gone very quiet on that front but a ban for him could seriously hinder any playoff aspirations.

I don't. But I have just seen this new post from @TheFootballLaw about Marc Bola, earlier in the season. It's somewhat dry and I haven't got time to read it, what with being about to start a nine-hour shift on a European news desk. Anything happening?

https://www.sports.legal/2022/02/the-fa-v-marc-bola/

He's been given a warning and has to attend an educational programme following the decision of an independent regulatory panel.

Headline conclusions seem to be:

- the FA don't seem to know what they're doing in all this. Their guidance needs to be updated on the defences open to minors (who was it's drafted seem to have fewer defences than adults)

- players should be charged under the rules at the time. The key date seems to be 2020 when the rules changed to include a minimum sanction of 3 games for this aggravated written offences.

- The FA were criticised for even bringing the charge at all.

I think it's the right decision in this case. To ban him now for a single tweet he sent when he was 14 would be incredibly harsh.

For Dion I think it's less clear cut. He's under the old rules so I think no minimum sanction. But there were several tweets, over a period of time, want running up until he was 17 I think.

The guidelines had different mitigating factors for those aged 12-15.

I still think he'll get a ban. But god knows when.

[TANGODANCER]

I think it's the right decision in this case. To ban him now for a single tweet he sent when he was 14 would be incredibly harsh.

Every time I read/hear of something a fourteen year old did, I mentally transport myself back to when I was that age: The results are not always encouraging.

[Gudnib]

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_cal ... eague-one/

Sir could have his very own go, if he wanted. Of course we finished ahead of Sunderland. in 9th on 78 points. So yes, I agree the Supercomputer knows nowt.

75 points would have got you a play-off place in every one of the last ten seasons. Will it be different this season? Possibly but you'd be very unlucky to get 78 and still have eight teams ahead of you.

[Worthy4England]

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_cal ... eague-one/

Sir could have his very own go, if he wanted. Of course we finished ahead of Sunderland. in 9th on 78 points. So yes, I agree the Supercomputer knows nowt.

75 points would have got you a play-off place in every one of the last ten seasons. Will it be different this season? Possibly but you'd be very unlucky to get 78 and still have eight teams ahead of you.

Indeed it would!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Not nearly as much fun this week to fill in the Extrapolometer, but still...

Applying the latest form (over six, eight, 10 and 12 games) for the remaining games of each of the top 11 teams now suggests we'll finish 8th on around 73-75pts. We finish 8th on last-6, last-8 and last-12 form – last-10 form sneaks us up to 7th, but still 3pts+ behind the 6th-placed team.

It's settling down a bit now – each of the four extrapolations has Plymouth 6th, Oxford 5th and Wednesday in the play-offs. Pleasingly, last-6, last-8 and last-10 form all have Wigan slipping into the play-offs - they're 4th on last-six form, behind Wednesday too - with McDons on course for 90+ points in each extrapolation.

Usual caveats - it's only numbers, don't get too excited or downcast, and it doesn't account for six-pointers. We've still got a say, with Plymouth, Wigan and Wednesday to play.

And of course wheels can fall off. No midweek games for us, but there's some inter4sting fixtures tomorrow. Oxford travel to Portsmouth, who would go above us with a win. Wycombe host Cambridge, who are on top-10 form (more than can be said for Wycombe). And Wednesday host tricky old Burton.

[GhostoftheBok]

Have to win all of the next 5 games, for me. We could maybe afford to draw one of the away games, but if it's the next one we could really see momentum stall.