Where will we finish?

[BWFC_Insane]

Don’t get the desire to not get promoted. We’d get significantly more cash if we went up and would be able to put together a squad capable of staying in the Championship.

Who doesn’t want to get promoted?

[Bruce Rioja]

Don’t get the desire to not get promoted. We’d get significantly more cash if we went up and would be able to put together a squad capable of staying in the Championship.

Who doesn’t want to get promoted?

Not me, for one. I always want to see us play at the highest level we possibly can. I never got this idea that we'd automatically get to be the Brazil of the Championship if/when we got relegated from the Premier League.

[BWFC_Insane]

Don’t get the desire to not get promoted. We’d get significantly more cash if we went up and would be able to put together a squad capable of staying in the Championship.

Who doesn’t want to get promoted?

Not me, for one. I always want to see us play at the highest level we possibly can. I never got this idea that we'd automatically get to be the Brazil of the Championship if/when we got relegated from the Premier League.

It was always nonsense. I’d love to go up, I can accept that if we don’t we might build a bit stronger and then go up.

But the extra money and the ability to attract better players would be enough incentive alone. That’s before we bask in the glory of it all.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Looks like we need 77-79 points to reach the playoffs. We’re on 48 so split the difference and call it 30 from 15 games. 2ppg - steep but doable. It’s 10 wins from 15. Pick your 10.

Sadly, we only have 13 games left
10 wins from 13 is a tough ask

That would make it 16 from 21 - title winning form

Ha yeah, oops. Too tired to think. But what I said after that still stands: if we win our 7 home games, we might (might) only need to win 3 away games, and we're visiting the bottom three. That gives us three "spares" in MK Dons (which I think we might win anyway), Wigan and Cheltenham. Looked at that way, it's doable - difficult, but doable.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Don’t get the desire to not get promoted. We’d get significantly more cash if we went up and would be able to put together a squad capable of staying in the Championship.

Who doesn’t want to get promoted?

I suspect The Gun is referring to me (and others) saying that if we do have to stay down, we can strengthen still further and win the league. And perhaps have a better chance of subsequently staying up.

Put another way: I'd rather finish 7th then 1st (C) next season than 6th (P) and 23rd (R).

I like watching us win in style, and I know we've had this philosophical debate before. The Champo is a fiscal hellhole, with clubs averaging 107% wages to turnover; even at a well-run club like Preston, Trevor Hemmings has been putting in £6-7m a year to stay afloat. Kieran Maguire, one of those financial experts who answers more questions than he asks, has called it the car-crash model. I can't look at figures like these, from @SwissRamble, without a stab of icy fear in the guts.
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Champo.jpg (126.18 KiB) Viewed 662 times

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(Two teams made a decent profit. One of them was Norwich, who made a £20m overall profit by making a £60m surplus on player sales. The other was Derby, presumably because Mel Morris padded their accounts by buying the ground. Can't remember how that story ended.)

To compete or even survive there we'd probably have to significantly change our model, which would lose something. Either we get more investment and therefore probably lose the Sharon-led leadership for an unknown 'saviour' who could be another Mike Ashley; or we lose the footballing purity beloved of Evatt and an increasing number of fans; or we lose more games, and we know how quickly people round here lose their shit when that happens.

Of course, I want us to go up. I had a similar feeling (without the Champo fear) this time last year: "imagine if we could keep this form up all season". Maybe it's wanting another Toddy-ton campaign. But when it came to Crawley I was ecstatic that we won and went up. It would be the same this season, but with that dark shadow. After all, we know better than most clubs that "survival" isn't always about league tables.

[Worthy4England]

Doesn't help that the teams in #6 and #7 have 1/2 games in hand

[BWFC_Insane]

[soundcloud][/soundcloud]

Don’t get the desire to not get promoted. We’d get significantly more cash if we went up and would be able to put together a squad capable of staying in the Championship.

Who doesn’t want to get promoted?

I suspect The Gun is referring to me (and others) saying that if we do have to stay down, we can strengthen still further and win the league. And perhaps have a better chance of subsequently staying up.

Put another way: I'd rather finish 7th then 1st (C) next season than 6th (P) and 23rd (R).

I like watching us win in style, and I know we've had this philosophical debate before. The Champo is a fiscal hellhole, with clubs averaging 107% wages to turnover; even at a well-run club like Preston, Trevor Hemmings has been putting in £6-7m a year to stay afloat. Kieran Maguire, one of those financial experts who answers more questions than he asks, has called it the car-crash model. I can't look at figures like these, from @SwissRamble, without a stab of icy fear in the guts.
.
Champo.jpg
.
(Two teams made a decent profit. One of them was Norwich, who made a £20m overall profit by making a £60m surplus on player sales. The other was Derby, presumably because Mel Morris padded their accounts by buying the ground. Can't remember how that story ended.)

To compete or even survive there we'd probably have to significantly change our model, which would lose something. Either we get more investment and therefore probably lose the Sharon-led leadership for an unknown 'saviour' who could be another Mike Ashley; or we lose the footballing purity beloved of Evatt and an increasing number of fans; or we lose more games, and we know how quickly people round here lose their shit when that happens.

Of course, I want us to go up. I had a similar feeling (without the Champo fear) this time last year: "imagine if we could keep this form up all season". Maybe it's wanting another Toddy-ton campaign. But when it came to Crawley I was ecstatic that we won and went up. It would be the same this season, but with that dark shadow. After all, we know better than most clubs that "survival" isn't always about league tables.

Go up whenever you can. Worry about the championship then. I think we’d be fine if we went up with this group and strengthened suitably. But yeah…I’m not expecting us to go up and happy for another year down here if we have a good team to watch. I’d still not turn down promotion if it was on the cards though and I doubt you would either. It’s just not that likely and there may be benefits to waiting a season as you say.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Go up whenever you can. Worry about the championship then. I think we’d be fine if we went up with this group and strengthened suitably. But yeah…I’m not expecting us to go up and happy for another year down here if we have a good team to watch. I’d still not turn down promotion if it was on the cards though and I doubt you would either. It’s just not that likely and there may be benefits to waiting a season as you say.

Yeah, I certainly wouldn't do some sort of Corinthian Casuals "refusing to score a penalty" thing if promotion were offered. I'll watch as many games as I can and fervently hope we win them. If it gets close, I'll scream myself hoarse (if I haven't got a gig that night ).

Course it's all ifs but the way I see it, a summer of sensible recruiting and strengthening (literally) at the back and we will be much more prepared for anything this division and the next can throw at us. I don't think we could vastly improve on our attack/midfield options in this division, but if we get a more solid defensive base next season (and improve set-pieces at both ends), maybe we can dial everything up again after promotion.

[GhostoftheBok]

We're not in a position where there's such a thing as "promoted too soon."

Squad turnover at this level is too high for that to be a meaningful issue and if we go up next season we will shed players who we would otherwise shed if we went up this summer.

Going up now is vastly preferable.

[officer_dibble]

Doesn't help that the teams in #6 and #7 have 1/2 games in hand

I dunno. Look after our own results, if we can hit 77 points we’re in with a shout.

[Worthy4England]

Doesn't help that the teams in #6 and #7 have 1/2 games in hand

I dunno. Look after our own results, if we can hit 77 points we’re in with a shout.

Agree - addressing our results is most important, because if we don't what they're doing won't matter.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Small point of order: it's the teams in 5th and 6th that have games in hand.

(7th is Sunderland, who've played as many games as we have. In our last eight, we've gained 20pts; in theirs, they've gathered 5.)

5th is Plymouth, who as mentioned have to play the entire top 11 bar Sheff Wed.
6th is wobbling Wycombe, who's got 6pts in their last 6 games.

All to play for...

[Worthy4England]

Small point of order: it's the teams in 5th and 6th that have games in hand.

(7th is Sunderland, who've played as many games as we have. In our last eight, we've gained 20pts; in theirs, they've gathered 5.)

5th is Plymouth, who as mentioned have to play the entire top 11 bar Sheff Wed.
6th is wobbling Wycombe, who's got 6pts in their last 6 games.

All to play for...

Yeah - ty - I was still mentally counting down to #7 from last year. I'll catch up by next year.

[Mar]

Looks like we need 77-79 points to reach the playoffs. We’re on 48 so split the difference and call it 30 from 15 games. 2ppg - steep but doable. It’s 10 wins from 15. Pick your 10.

Off to sleep now. I may already be dreaming. But ain’t that why we watch?

Average points tally from the past few seasons has playoffs around the 73-74 point mark. Hopefully that persists and doesn't make the task as difficult.

13 games to go. Needing around 26-27 points.

Home fixtures:
Lincoln (17th), Morecambe (21st), Plymouth (5th), Portsmouth (11th), Sheffield Wednesday (8th), Accrington (13th), Fleetwood (19th)

Away fixtures:
MK Dons (3rd), Gillingham (22nd), Crewe (24th), Wigan (2nd), Doncaster (23rd), Cheltenham (15th)


There's four teams there in the top half of the table out of the 13, in which our other opposite form has look a mixed bag):
Plymouth 3-0 (incl. that swimming pool goal)
Sheff Wed 1-0 (Doyle missing two clear opportunities, Lee missing a 1-1, 60% possession and sucker punched defeat)
Bolton 3-3 MK Dons (3 goalkeeping howlers and a late comeback)
Bolton 0-4 (our only league horror show of the season)

There is nothing to suggest that we're not going to be competitive in those top team matches, I think definitely Plymouth and Sheffield Wednesday at home are ones we should be looking to win for playoffs. As for Wigan and MK Dons, i'm sure wanting to get back at Wigan and having a more settled back line should do wonders for us.


All in all, 13 games for 2 points per game, i'd say we're definitely in for a shout given the level, and amount, of quality we've got in the squad. The question for me is can we sustain the form. Heck our home form is 31 points from 16 games. We've got 7 games remaining at home and if we keep up the form we've had over the course of the season then that is 14 points (taking us to 62 points).

It isn't hard to argue that we're a better side now than earlier in the season so you'd suspect that number would be higher come the end of the season, but its managing to get 10 points from our away fixtures, and looking at those as it stands you could say is definitely do-able given we're against the bottom 3.

There's also a good chance to say that we'll be up against Portsmouth and Wigan after they've had a catch up game in midweek. Nothing in the calendar as it stands but they've got 3 games to catch up on us so that will be taxing from a fitness perspective.


I suppose the question should really be, (taking this season out of the equation) has Evatt constructed a side that is capable of challenging for the League One title?

My money would be on yes. We need form like title winners to get promoted and I get the impression that we're capable of it.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

15 games to go. Needing around 26-27 points.

Sorry Mar, my bad - 13 games left not 15.

There's also a good chance to say that we'll be up against Portsmouth after they've had a catch up game in midweek. Nothing in the calendar as it stands but they've got 3 games to catch up on us so that will be taxing from a fitness perspective.

Aye, think I posted somewhere that they're facing a right old pile-up, likely to be worsened by international call-ups postponing our March 26th game with them. They play a very high press too so they'll tire.

[Mar]

Sorry Mar, my bad - 13 games left not 15.

I've been back and amended it, don't think my speculation really hindered on the number 15 either way.

[TANGODANCER]

It's all a long way from Shove Halfpenny...

[Worthy4England]

If I look at the points tally for last year for the playoff teams at the same number of games:

3-6 then were....

Lincoln P33 - 61 pts (MKD -1 point)
Sunderland P33 - 60 (Oxford -4 points)
Doncaster P31 - 55 (Plymouth +1 point)
Pompey - P32 - 52 (Wycombe +3 points)

We see that Plymouth and Wycombe are in front of the 5/6th place this time last year. Blackpool at this point were on 45 from 29 in 12th. By the time Blackpool were on 33 games (same as us) they were on 53 points (still in 10th) - so 5 points in front of where we are now.

The final places were:

Blackpool (P46 - 80 points) - last 13 games - 27 points
Sunderland (P46 - 77) - last 13 games - 17 points
Lincoln (P46 - 77) - last 13 games - 16 points
Oxford (P46 - 74) - last 13 games - 24 points

So it's possible, but it's probably going to take a Blackpool last year type run to achieve 6th...

[GhostoftheBok]

A lot of people on social media are plugging in fairly generic numbers and forgetting that we have a number of 6-pointers against promotion rivals.

When you plug in form numbers, but then drop them 3 points for their fixtures at our place, the picture changes fairly dramatically.

I will accept that my optimism is based on my belief that we will win every home game. If we lose tonight I may change my tune somewhat.

[Harry Genshaw]

I can't escape the feeling that our away performances will have to significantly improve if we're to give ourselves a real chance.