Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

[GhostoftheBok]

I guess it'll be interesting to see what the balance is between how much Evatt would get to invest from any sales vs how much would be paying the leccy bill...much tougher sell to fans if say 75% of a sale went into "non-players" than if it's going back into squad.

That's where we are, though, you'd think. Other clubs pay most of their bills by developing and selling players. Buy cheap and sell for good money. Unless we get significant new investment that's the model.

[officer_dibble]

I’m not sure staying reliably fit is a measurable thing or even something a player has much control over.

We do medicals for a reason. Some players are sicknotes and you try to avoid them.

Are we good enough at medicals? How did we manage to spend all season paying for Andy Tutte? Maybe the staff need investment - we got a new coach earlier this year didn’t we.

[GhostoftheBok]

We've signed a number of players with bad injury histories that didn't need medicals for red flags to be raised. Some of them worked out and some didn't.

Lee has been good, but we've seen him miss significant chunks of games. His injury record at Wednesday was why he was let go. Tutte has had an awful time with injuries and that risk didn't work out.

Presumably a lot of it is Evatt's risk/reward calculation and base finances. We could not have got a player anywhere near Lee's quality if it were not for the injuries. Tutte will have been dirt cheap compared to other options. John is another who has mostly worked out, but Sheehan has redone his knee as I worried he might when we got him in. Jones is another who has had a bad time at points in his career, but who is working out as a good transfer.

Fossey's value will have dropped significantly on the back of this latest injury, so it may actually make him more attractive to us rather than less. However, we might have to expect that he'll miss more than the average number of games over the course of his contract.

[GhostoftheBok]

That'd actually be quite interesting to know. What would a successful Fossey return look like to people on here?

Let's say we give Fossey a 3 year deal in the summer and he's on (probably) about the same as Declan John.

Assuming he saw out his contract, how many games would you need him to play in order for you to say that paying him that contract represented a good investment?

[Harry Genshaw]

Assuming nothing came up on the medical then of course we should sign Fossey. It's hardly a Kirchoff(?) situation where you could see he was a player but could also see he was made of cream crackers. Fosseys played on heavy pitches, had some physical attention and had come through it all. First name on the shopping list for me.

Still amazes me that in the midst of our financial meltdown and administration we somehow gave a 3 year deal to Liam Edwards. He looked pretty useful next to the cat abuser too but bless him, like Amaechi, Tutte and Gordon, his time is up.

I'm still unconvinced re Kachunga but he did himself no harm last night.

[Worthy4England]

I started out thinking, not sure it's a great investment unless he's a minimum of 70%. Then I worked out, that's 13/14 games per season missing based on 46. I'd probably want him nearer 80% without a "near Fossey" replacement available at LWB (whilst Izzy isn't Fossey, he might have gone a little way to alleviate some of this). At the minute, he'll end the season based on number of games played vs available league games @ ~65% with 4 months out?

He managed 6 starts for Shrewsbury (much lower return on his half season long loan)...Not sure how long his recovery was. His injury was in November 2020 and he didn't show in senior football until we took him on loan, 13 months later.,,

His initial injury was in Aug 2018, (I really feel for the kid), he returned to full training 9 months later in May 2019

[Bruce Rioja]

Assuming he saw out his contract, how many games would you need him to play in order for you to say that paying him that contract represented a good investment?

You can't make that valuation based simply on his attendance record. How do you factor in his contribution?

Put it like this, I'd rather have 20 games out of Fossey than 40 out of the likes of Liam Gordon.

[BWFC_Insane]

I’m not sure staying reliably fit is a measurable thing or even something a player has much control over.

We do medicals for a reason. Some players are sicknotes and you try to avoid them.

Medical find existing problems. They don’t predict future problems. No medical can predict how much a player might suffer from contact injuries or non contact injuries. It’s just an impossibility.

[GhostoftheBok]

Assuming nothing came up on the medical then of course we should sign Fossey. It's hardly a Kirchoff(?) situation where you could see he was a player but could also see he was made of cream crackers. Fosseys played on heavy pitches, had some physical attention and had come through it all. First name on the shopping list for me.

He's been injured more often than he's been fit for nearly 3 years. It's a reasonable concern. He started with this specific issue in April 2019 and it has been recurring ever since, each time requiring months out. Prior to this he had other injury issues.

[GhostoftheBok]

Medical find existing problems. They don’t predict future problems. No medical can predict how much a player might suffer from contact injuries or non contact injuries. It’s just an impossibility.

Medicals assess how likely players are to get injured above normal. That's a standard part of the assessments that are done.

[GhostoftheBok]

You can't make that valuation based simply on his attendance record. How do you factor in his contribution?

Put it like this, I'd rather have 20 games out of Fossey than 40 out of the likes of Liam Gordon.

Sure you can. You can apply any further assumptions you like, but I don't think we'd pay Harry Kane 5k per week if he was only going to be fit for one game a season.

That's why I added a likely wage band into it. Is a Fossey that plays 20 games a season worth a full first team wage to us at the moment? Assume any kind of form you like.

[TANGODANCER]

Truth is; we just don't know. Results are all that matters when day's done. A scruffy 1-0 gets the points over a classy "hard lines". Who knows that better than us? Only time will tell. If we can get somebody anywhere near Fossey's class, that will be a super bonus.

[BWFC_Insane]

Medical find existing problems. They don’t predict future problems. No medical can predict how much a player might suffer from contact injuries or non contact injuries. It’s just an impossibility.

Medicals assess how likely players are to get injured above normal. That's a standard part of the assessments that are done.

They don’t. They look at areas of concern and assign risk. Unless we’ve got something more sophisticated than Man City, then what you get is a risk assessment. It’s not predictive. It’s simply looking at any past problems, the scan results from those and then a physical assessment of movement around joints, alongside the health checks. You put it all together and get a sense of any underlying problems, the risk of those and then any muscular issues that suggest higher risk.

But countless, countless players with awful injury records would never get picked up as high risk by this. And ones like Wheater wouldn’t pass yet were managed through to play a lot of games. There is as of yet no magical formula to predict injury and whilst there are more and more advanced things in place to score risk we are nowhere near advanced enough to make any sensible predictions in relation to competitive contact sport.

[Worthy4England]

^^ So are you seeing no problems with three major injuries over three and a half years? I don't think Wheater was in that situation...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Medical find existing problems. They don’t predict future problems. No medical can predict how much a player might suffer from contact injuries or non contact injuries. It’s just an impossibility.

Medicals assess how likely players are to get injured above normal. That's a standard part of the assessments that are done.

They don’t. They look at areas of concern and assign risk. Unless we’ve got something more sophisticated than Man City, then what you get is a risk assessment. It’s not predictive. It’s simply looking at any past problems, the scan results from those and then a physical assessment of movement around joints, alongside the health checks. You put it all together and get a sense of any underlying problems, the risk of those and then any muscular issues that suggest higher risk.

But countless, countless players with awful injury records would never get picked up as high risk by this. And ones like Wheater wouldn’t pass yet were managed through to play a lot of games. There is as of yet no magical formula to predict injury and whilst there are more and more advanced things in place to score risk we are nowhere near advanced enough to make any sensible predictions in relation to competitive contact sport.

Mate, I get that you like Fossey, and you've very reason to. I do, too. But would you be as ready to take the risk if we were discussing, say, Sheehan?

And before you claim Sheehan adds nothing (a whole other argument), I also understand the Rioja Formula – but does your logic betray just a hint of defending a position?

[Prufrock]

You've all got massively giddy too. He's a bottom half Championship player. I want him back, but only if we're confident he can get through a whole season or the money means we can have top quality competition. My first phone call this summer would be Kane Wilson over Fossey.

The other thing with Marlon is he brings most value as a wing back (I think he'd be a good full back but would have less of an effect). But if you play with wing-backs they're one of the most important positions, and as we're painfully re-learning, it's not a position you can just bung someone. So you're kind of building your team around him. Which is an issue if his knee goes again.

To apply the Rioja formula, it's not 20 games of Marlon OR 40 of Gordon, it's 20 of Marlon and consequently 26 of Gordon because Marlon is injured and you had no budget for a back up.

[BWFC_Insane]

Medical find existing problems. They don’t predict future problems. No medical can predict how much a player might suffer from contact injuries or non contact injuries. It’s just an impossibility.

Medicals assess how likely players are to get injured above normal. That's a standard part of the assessments that are done.

They don’t. They look at areas of concern and assign risk. Unless we’ve got something more sophisticated than Man City, then what you get is a risk assessment. It’s not predictive. It’s simply looking at any past problems, the scan results from those and then a physical assessment of movement around joints, alongside the health checks. You put it all together and get a sense of any underlying problems, the risk of those and then any muscular issues that suggest higher risk.

But countless, countless players with awful injury records would never get picked up as high risk by this. And ones like Wheater wouldn’t pass yet were managed through to play a lot of games. There is as of yet no magical formula to predict injury and whilst there are more and more advanced things in place to score risk we are nowhere near advanced enough to make any sensible predictions in relation to competitive contact sport.

Mate, I get that you like Fossey, and you've very reason to. I do, too. But would you be as ready to take the risk if we were discussing, say, Sheehan?

And before you claim Sheehan adds nothing (a whole other argument), I also understand the Rioja Formula – but does your logic betray just a hint of defending a position?

Nothing in my post is advocating for us to sign Fossey at all. It’s simply that you can’t in a medical pick things up in the way it’s been suggested.

You can’t predict whether a player is more or less likely to be injured.

That’s completely independent from Fossey who we know has a history and would require extensive scans and examination. But injuries historically can be indicative of a future problem. Or not. I don’t think any of us know the situation on Marlon or what the injuries even were in detail beyond the one here. So I’d leave that to the experts with the scans and whatever.

I’m not advocating we sign him but that we know the sort of player we lack and need to add. If we don’t sign him we need to find players who have the same qualities he brought to the side.

[BWFC_Insane]

You've all got massively giddy too. He's a bottom half Championship player. I want him back, but only if we're confident he can get through a whole season or the money means we can have top quality competition. My first phone call this summer would be Kane Wilson over Fossey.

The other thing with Marlon is he brings most value as a wing back (I think he'd be a good full back but would have less of an effect). But if you play with wing-backs they're one of the most important positions, and as we're painfully re-learning, it's not a position you can just bung someone. So you're kind of building your team around him. Which is an issue if his knee goes again.

To apply the Rioja formula, it's not 20 games of Marlon OR 40 of Gordon, it's 20 of Marlon and consequently 26 of Gordon because Marlon is injured and you had no budget for a back up.

Whatever league you want to peg Marlon in, the. Injuries aside, you can take one off and find Dapos level.

I think the problem is that we’ve become so used to technical fiddlers that we’ve forgotten how much power and pace exponentially increases up the leagues and becomes so important. Marlon had that in spades. And it’s why we looked such a good team with him. No matter what you do with Declan John he’s never got the physicality to compete at the top end of the championship or in the premiership. No matter what.And I like him a lot.

You need those characteristics in your side and if it’s not Fossey we need to find others who bring that. Strong, physical power and pace and direct running and then an ability to do something with it at the end. Without that we won’t be troubling the top end. I know that for sure.

[GhostoftheBok]

Insane. You've just said a medical does a risk assessment. Which is exactly an assessment of there being a greater than average risk of injury or not.

I feel like you're arguing with yourself at this stage, rather than anything I've said.

[Worthy4England]

I don’t think any of us know the situation on Marlon or what the injuries even were in detail beyond the one here. So I’d leave that to the experts with the scans and whatever.

Whilst we don't know what the three injuries were in detail as you say, it's not like they were ingrowing toe nail, vaginal warts and a stiff neck. We know they were all associated with the same knee? Of course no one on here could say "don't sign him" with any degree of certainty, like no one could say "sign him whatever, no debate" for the same reason. They couldn't say that if he had no injuries, because we don't know the fee and personal terms he might want either or even if a perm move to us is something he's after.

I'm sure we'd all love the 46 game a year Fossey on terms whereby Fulham paid us to take him and we sell him in 3 years coz he's not quite PL. I would also be looking at other possible candidates (as I'm sure indeed they will be)