Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

[GhostoftheBok]

I would say top two might be a tough one but not finding a way into the play offs at least, for me, would represent failure.

Sure, in terms of set aims. I don't think it'd be a failure of leadership, though.

This squad is a 4th-10th squad. It could win the league, but it's on the less likely end of the possible.

If we get lucky with injuries then 4th-6th should be doable. A bit of bad luck could have us 8th-10th due to lack of depth/tools in key areas. If teams implode and everything on our end comes up roses, we could go up automatically.

I think we've signed some good players, we've just not signed enough and we've not added exactly what we needed. So we're not where we wanted to be 3 months ago.

We're trusting to fortune and that's always bad in football.

Antonio Conte said something a while ago, "I don't need a guarantee to win a title, just a chance...then I believe I will win it." Evatt is the same. He thinks he can win anything if he just has a shot. He arguably has a long odds shot, so he'll talk it up. That doesn't change that it's a very long odds shot.

If Evatt gets into the play-offs that's a good season. If he's fighting for play offs until the last game then that's par, regardless where we fall. If he misses out badly it's a tad below where I'd expect. If he got automatic promotion with no further backing I'd say he's shown he's a bit special.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Is Agent Magoo still wearing a Campo wig?

[BWFC_Insane]

I would say top two might be a tough one but not finding a way into the play offs at least, for me, would represent failure.

Sure, in terms of set aims. I don't think it'd be a failure of leadership, though.

This squad is a 4th-10th squad. It could win the league, but it's on the less likely end of the possible.

If we get lucky with injuries then 4th-6th should be doable. A bit of bad luck could have us 8th-10th due to lack of depth/tools in key areas. If teams implode and everything on our end comes up roses, we could go up automatically.

I think we've signed some good players, we've just not signed enough and we've not added exactly what we needed. So we're not where we wanted to be 3 months ago.

We're trusting to fortune and that's always bad in football.

Antonio Conte said something a while ago, "I don't need a guarantee to win a title, just a chance...then I believe I will win it." Evatt is the same. He thinks he can win anything if he just has a shot. He arguably has a long odds shot, so he'll talk it up. That doesn't change that it's a very long odds shot.

If Evatt gets into the play-offs that's a good season. If he's fighting for play offs until the last game then that's par, regardless where we fall. If he misses out badly it's a tad below where I'd expect. If he got automatic promotion with no further backing I'd say he's shown he's a bit special.

I disagree. We saw our form back end of last season. Evatt isn’t saying we need one or two more. He’d obviously take the right players but his judgement is this is a good squad.

Play offs is the bar for me and although I believe we still need a few more players it’s obvious Evatt does not see that as critical. So I will measure his performance this season based on the top 6.

If we don’t then I have no idea how we ever intend to expect to get out of this division because we will always have a top 6 budget but won’t ever have a top two budget given the money sides come down with.

It’s about the details. Better on set pieces at both ends, given our form from January and there is no reason top 6 isn’t achievable. And a horrific injury run would be taken into account so long as for example it’s not impacting on areas like wing backs where I’ve already highlighted a weakness in Evatts thinking.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Seems to me you’re both saying the squad isn’t strong enough, but you’re preparing to lay the blame at different doors for that. Broadly, Ghost thinks we’ve recruited poorly because we’ve been outspent, and BWFCi thinks it’s because Evatt can’t accurately assess the strength of his squad. A fair analysis?

[BWFC_Insane]

Seems to me you’re both saying the squad isn’t strong enough, but you’re preparing to lay the blame at different doors for that. Broadly, Ghost thinks we’ve recruited poorly because we’ve been outspent, and BWFCi thinks it’s because Evatt can’t accurately assess the strength of his squad. A fair analysis?

It’s a fair analysis though it depends on what you think ‘strong enough’ is for.

Top 6? With the squad we’ve got it’s more than capable of top 6 if managed well.

Top 2? That’s a stretch right now given where we are. Not impossible especially if we start well. But I’d not be blaming Evatt if we missed out on top two.

[Worthy4England]

Seems to me you’re both saying the squad isn’t strong enough, but you’re preparing to lay the blame at different doors for that. Broadly, Ghost thinks we’ve recruited poorly because we’ve been outspent, and BWFCi thinks it’s because Evatt can’t accurately assess the strength of his squad. A fair analysis?

Fair analysis? yes.

I think it would take some explaining if we didn't make the playoffs, given the form from Jan - End Season. This is the first season we've had a pretty settled squad (as opposed to say a settled 10-12 players) without having gone up. So last year we thought we were pretty settled and clearly there was a class gap, which we bridged in Jan. So whilst we don't have a shedload of new signings, there isn't a shedload of "Joe meet Odalapo" going on in September. We also have the long term injuries back which is like a couple of new players - albeit we're not really sure if Izzy can cut L1.

I don't agree with the notion that everyone signing players will have improved (albeit I think that mentality is fine when looking at our recruitment) and some teams have whilst they've signed a good few have similarly lost a good few too. The ones coming down and the ones coming up being stronger than the ones that have gone the other way - pretty subjective.

No team is going to get everyone they want - however much money they have. I haven't heard anything out of Evatt other than he's getting the backing. He's setting the bar. In that sense, I think anything outside of playoffs would be a failure for him. Personally, I think maybe 8th-6th with a possibility of 8th to 3rd...So yeah, it'd be a disappointment for me too if we didn't make the play-offs...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

We should do a snap poll, ending 3pm tomorrow, predicting finishing position. Will make interesting reading later.

[Bruce Rioja]

There seems, as is ever the case, a clamour amongst supporters to have finished our recruitment by now. Whilst ideal, pragmatically we still have until the end of the window on 1/9, then there'll be all the players who didn't get fixed up. If, as BWFC-I attests, Evatt can't accurately assess the squad's strengths and weaknesses just now, I'd imagine they'd be pretty obvious by then.

[Prufrock]

I couldn't give a monkey's where he says he thinks we should finish when judging success this season.

Even leaving aside that he's a gobshite generally (*our* gobshite, mind) he's all into the management pseudo-bollocks on setting high standards and pressure being a privilege and all that.

I'd have us in the "behind the top 2, better than the rest" pack along with MK Dons, Plymouth, Peterborough, Barnsley, Wycombe and maybe Oxford, Portsmouth and Derby.

That's a top ten there. I think top two would be a fab achievement. Top six - good, slightly better than par. Top 8 - ok, slightly below par. Top 10 frustrating and disappointing. Outside top 10, failure.

[TANGODANCER]

How's about we just wait and see? Life ( and football) is full of Yings and Yangs, fantasies and realities, and brave distant drum music and rattling sabres. Okay, this is a forum, and all about opinions and views, but bottom line is we're not fortune tellers ,visionaries or three Weetabix a day scoffers. We just don't know.

Amen.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

There seems, as is ever the case, a clamour amongst supporters to have finished our recruitment by now. Whilst ideal, pragmatically we still have until the end of the window on 1/9, then there'll be all the players who didn't get fixed up. If, as BWFC-I attests, Evatt can't accurately assess the squad's strengths and weaknesses just now, I'd imagine they'd be pretty obvious by then.

Depends. First season, it was obvious straight away that some players weren't up to it. Second season, we started OK but fell off badly Oct-Dec, partly due to injuries. That could happen again - imagine Declan pings a hammy and Bradley loses form, neither of which would be astoundingly unlikely, and we'd be on BWFCi's nightmare scenario of Iredale one side and Sadlier the other. (Or maybe Isgrove. Or Jones with Toal//Aimson behind him.)

For me, I think we're now waiting to see how squads in divisions above us shape up and shake down. As they sign their targets, other players down the chain might become available.

Take Stoke, for example. This summer they've already signed centre-backs Aden Flint and Arsenal loanee Harry Clarke; they went for Ben Davies, are talking to Alfie Mawson and have Terence Kongolo on trial, so it's safe to say they're in the market. One can only imagine the thoughts of Ben Wilmot, the 22yo England U21 centre-back who played 39 games for Stoke last season on the right of a back three and, while categorised as having a somewhat "up and down" but is described as "really tidy with the ball but a centre-half all day". That to me sounds like a potential loan signing - and while it may not be him specifically, there will be plenty of Ben Wilmots and plenty of older players whose face doesn't fit but could do us a job. I would be surprised if the squad we have now is the one we have in September.

[The_Gun]

Yep, I’m completely in agreement with DSB here. The transfer window is open for another month, we have space left in our squad, and it’s extremely likely that a raft of good players are going to become available right at the end of the registration period.

[GhostoftheBok]

Seems to me you’re both saying the squad isn’t strong enough, but you’re preparing to lay the blame at different doors for that. Broadly, Ghost thinks we’ve recruited poorly because we’ve been outspent, and BWFCi thinks it’s because Evatt can’t accurately assess the strength of his squad. A fair analysis?

Eeeeeyyyyyy....."recruited poorly" is maybe overstating it as a blanket statement (I'm not arguing much, just feel the need to clarify a bit in case I've come across badly).

IE was always going to say we were ready to fight for top spot, even if we'd signed Mr Blobby and Benson and Hedges.

I don't think the recruitment is bad, I think it's currently insufficient to give the manager a better shot at the top two than a good number of other teams.

As I've said a few times, I'm not pessimistic or down about the season - all my criticism, such as it is, is based on Evatt talking about winning the league. If the manager were more circumspect in his pronouncements I'd be talking about the positives of the business we have done (I think there are plenty) and the generally improved state of the squad.

We've consolidated the progress we made in January, which should enable a good run at the play-offs. So I won't "blame" anyone if we don't go up this season, as I think it'd require extraordinary work to do so. On our budgets, we're about par for the window thus far - I just don't feel Markham et al will be happy with par and we're well below what we seem to have been aiming for in terms of how guaranteed our returns are.

If we don't do more business (and probably better, more reliable business) then the need for overperformance shifts from recruitment to coaching. To go up someone has to massively pull up trees.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Yeah, I oversimplified there. Let me try again:

If we don't go up, I suspect both you and BWFCi will say the squad wasn't good enough to start the season (assuming it's not beefed up next month). It's just that I suspect in that case, Insano would say that's Evatt's overconfidence, whereas you would be more likely to say it's us not getting our targets (Tucker, Barky, Butcher, possibly Fossey).

On another note, having read my splurge above, a small clarification into something more like English. Stoke fans seem to say Wilmot had an up and down *season* but many think he's got vast potential. But again, I'm not particularly singling him out or suggesting him: there will be many of his kind, and we have shown we're happy to loan in players whether or not we're likely to keep them at the end (Dapo vs Bradley, say). Wouldn't shock me if we borrowed another couple.

[GhostoftheBok]

Yeah, I oversimplified there. Let me try again:

If we don't go up, I suspect both you and BWFCi will say the squad wasn't good enough to start the season (assuming it's not beefed up next month). It's just that I suspect in that case, Insano would say that's Evatt's overconfidence, whereas you would be more likely to say it's us not getting our targets (Tucker, Barky, Butcher, possibly Fossey).

We're working by millimetres now and I don't feel your mischaracterising my position, but I'll clarify a bit more for the sake of it.

I do think this squad is good enough to go up. I also think it's patchy enough to finish 10th. It's swingy and relies a lot on luck (injuries, adaptation etc).

What we've not done, which we clearly wanted to, is separate ourselves from the pack and cover the gaps we had last season. Had we got the lads you listed I think Evatt would have felt he really did have a squad where if he'd not got top two it'd be because he messed up. Right now I think him messing up looks like 10th-12th and not 3rd-6th. 1st-2nd would be him doing outstanding work as a coach and getting a lot of luck.

I think "Evatt's overconfidence" shouldn't be confused with Evatt's bullshit. The fact we went for a higher calibre of player (or at least a profile that was more likely to give immediate returns) shows that we understood what was needed. I think the idea that having missed out on those lads that Evatt can't tell the difference is a bit weird.

If I want to enter a horse race and when I go to buy a horse they're double the price I thought and I end up with a goat I'm not stood there thinking, "feck me, what a great horse this is!" I'm hoping I've bought a particularly fast goat.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

If I want to enter a horse race and when I go to buy a horse they're double the price I thought and I end up with a goat I'm not stood there thinking, "feck me, what a great horse this is!" I'm hoping I've bought a particularly fast goat.

or better yet, GOAT.

[Bruce Rioja]

Yep, I’m completely in agreement with DSB here. The transfer window is open for another month, we have space left in our squad, and it’s extremely likely that a raft of good players are going to become available right at the end of the registration period.

That's pretty much what I'm saying, but beyond then also.

[GhostoftheBok]

There's plenty of time to turn something up this window.

Plus if we're in the top 6 by January then we'll all probably have some kind of belief that we can work another winter miracle.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

There's plenty of time to turn something up this window.

Plus if we're in the top 6 by January then we'll all probably have some kind of belief that we can work another winter miracle.

Was thinking about this. January might continue to be a good hiring time for economic reasons. Clubs are sometimes more likely to sell players - either cutting losses (MJ, Bod) or taking the money (Morley, Dempsey) - than they may be in summer. Players become more affordable and more expendable. And I don't doubt we have a long list of players we'd like to hire, along with intel on their contract situation and their clubs' likelihood to sell (see Demps, again).

For clarity, I don't think we've done quite enough in the free-transfer market this window. But I would expect us to pick up good players in January, from somewhere. It's not a bad system, and we shouldn't let an underwhelming summer hide the fact that one could argue we signed players - again, Demps, Morley and Bod - that we might have waited six months for had we not decided more urgent action was needed.

[Worthy4England]

Right now I think him messing up looks like 10th-12th and not 3rd-6th. 1st-2nd would be him doing outstanding work as a coach and getting a lot of luck.

7th, 8th or 9th is going to cause a bit of a pi$$fest.

If I want to enter a horse race and when I go to buy a horse they're double the price I thought and I end up with a goat I'm not stood there thinking, "feck me, what a great horse this is!" I'm hoping I've bought a particularly fast goat.

Not that simple, because the analogy is that actually whilst we might not have the complete horse, we've got a significant part of the horse acquired over a number of windows. Maybe a hoat....Only the tiara missing and we know what Gary thinks of them...