Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon May 16, 2022 1:00 pm

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 12:43 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 12:19 pm
And as you specifically ask if it's a "good deal", then that entirely depends on the costs in and out. If we got £1.2m for Dapo and got screwed up to £750k for Stockton, then quite simply no, that's not a good deal. If we got, for sake of argument, £5m for Dapo (a year after signing him for free), spent £500k on Stockton *and* he got 15 goals, then yeah, that's probably a good deal.
This is the bread and butter of it.

If Dapo going funded, say, Stockton, Camara and Ronan then suddenly you've got a complete attack that will scare teams, at the cost of your star man.

If Dapo goes and you end up with Stockton and a BTEC Dapo then I'd say you've lost a lot of your team's intimidation factor.
Who's Ronan?

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by GhostoftheBok » Mon May 16, 2022 1:08 pm

Connor Ronan. Rochdale lad who was at St Mirren on loan from Wolves. 24, available, local, travelled abroad for first team football, U21 international etc. Just someone who fits "the profile", not someone we have been linked to.

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon May 16, 2022 1:50 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 12:19 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 11:42 am
Very idle Twitter talk but linked again with Stockton.

Would Dapo going and Stockton coming in be a good deal?

In a 352 it would give us 4 strikers all capable. Which is what we’d want.

But we’d lose the ability to run at defences Dapo brings and some flexibility and we’d have potentially Bod and Cole of relatively similar type.

However, goals wise you’d fancy Dapo was replaced in that scenario. It would be a question of less flexibility on shape. And I’d feel we’d want a wide player still to give us a back four option.
It's a good question.

It's possible Stockton might score more goals, but as you note, he would be a very different threat to Dapo running at defenders. That wins us free-kicks, and we will have some good FK takers next season (Morley, Sheehan, John, Sadlier). I don't know whether Stockton gets us those opportunities. I also don't know (genuinely) how good he would be in rotation, which is how our strikers will surely be.

My feeling is we would be weaker. I can see Dapo in the Championship, with room to grow and become more of an asset – on the field and the balance sheet. I don't think Stockton is ever going to be worth more than what Morecambe are asking (Derek Adams was quoted last week saying it would be more than Carlos Mendes Gomes, who was said to be around £500,000).

And as you specifically ask if it's a "good deal", then that entirely depends on the costs in and out. If we got £1.2m for Dapo and got screwed up to £750k for Stockton, then quite simply no, that's not a good deal. If we got, for sake of argument, £5m for Dapo (a year after signing him for free), spent £500k on Stockton *and* he got 15 goals, then yeah, that's probably a good deal.
Yeah and I was working on the basis not that we’d push Dapo out to sign Stockton but that were we ‘forced’ to sell him would Stockton coming in soften the blow.

I completely agree with your and ghosts view here. Stockton for me would be a welcome addition (though a very unlikely one still) but he would need a supply and we’d lose someone who creates openings in key areas through his ability to take the defenders on. So yeah it would be less balanced. Though in a back three it arguably lessens the loss a bit more.

I suppose if we had to sell Dapo and could get Stockton plus maybe a decent prem young loan for a wise man or number 10 than that would start to look reasonable.

What it says to me is that Dapo probably isn’t replaced with one player it’s more likely going to be two to adequately fill the options in the squad he brings. That needs to be factored into any fee if it comes to that, which I personally think it might not. But if it does I’d say £2M should be where we look.

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by TANGODANCER » Mon May 16, 2022 3:22 pm

In my ignorance I might be tempted to think Bod and not Dapo would be a duplicate swop for Stockton. We can only do so many and Bod seems to fit our system well. How many goals scored is immaterial to me as games won 1-0 regardless of who scores is what matters and more important than numbers. . Just a view.
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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon May 16, 2022 3:52 pm

TANGODANCER wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 3:22 pm
In my ignorance I might be tempted to think Bod and not Dapo would be a duplicate swop for Stockton. We can only do so many and Bod seems to fit our system well. How many goals scored is immaterial to me as games won 1-0 regardless of who scores is what matters and more important than numbers. . Just a view.
I think you are right. But there are two conundrums with Dapo going should it happen, and I still err on the side of he will stay. But should he go, we need to find someone to replace his goals, and also his general play, I doubt we find that in one package. We also consider that if the plan is to play 352 that realistically we’d want 4 strikers for that system so we could rotate. Stockton scores goals and as you say might replicate Bod but it would offer 4 strikers that I doubt could be matched in the division for potential quality and goals.

We’d then need someone who offers the running and ability to win those set pieces and create openings. Hence probably two players should he go.

I agree about goals except that four strikers are ideal and we’ve seen the folly of not having suitable cover in key areas such as up front. I think you can for a while get away with a dodgy left back or a dodgy midfield player IF you have the firepower up front. And Stockton with the others would give us quality up top and goals should we lose any of them still.

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon May 16, 2022 3:57 pm

How would we feel about swapping Dapo for Stockton, Barkhuizen and some butty in the bank?

Would need to be a fair amount of butty. He's our best asset, financially.

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon May 16, 2022 4:06 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 3:57 pm
How would we feel about swapping Dapo for Stockton, Barkhuizen and some butty in the bank?

Would need to be a fair amount of butty. He's our best asset, financially.
I think he will stay for the simple reason that there isn’t enough money in the championship (for me he’s not going higher than that) to get a bidding war going with rangers. So my suspicion is that if he goes it’s under £2M.

I don’t know what sort of bid FV would take but of course if his head is turned over the course of the summer then it’s a different ball game.

I’d say that’s why we need to not hang round on this. If it looks likely he goes we need to do it whilst options like Barkhuizen and Stockton exist. If you sell him in August then it’s a whole different ball game. Cash but prices sky high. We’ve seen it before.

Obviously Bolton can only do so much it’s not in our control. But they know how serious any interest out there is. If rangers is a genuine thing and they are likely to come in with money we probably need to sound out player and know the likely situation now. For aforementioned reasons.

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon May 16, 2022 4:09 pm

I imagine right now Rangers are a bit busy... roping in old heroes to beg their fans not to riot at a European cup final.

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by GhostoftheBok » Mon May 16, 2022 4:36 pm

I think this is a bit like the 05/06 season, in that Sam had to find a solution to an aging Okocha and clearly couldn't just replace a world class midfielder like-for-like. He ended up bringing in Diouf and switching our play so the out-ball went wide more directly rather than through the centre into feet. We found solutions in the squad to losing what JJ gave us.

The team needs a regular, easy out-ball that we can hit when we want to hold the ball and relieve pressure. We need a player who can reliably attract multiple defenders to create space. We need someone who can carry the ball when there's no space to pass. We need someone who will win us free kicks in attacking areas. We need someone who can score goals from 20-odd yards when there's no space in the box.

I could go on. The reason Dapo should be seen as worth more than a lot of people seem to think is because he gives us so many of our "needs" in one package, whilst also being a diligent defender. Insane is right that it's unlikely to be one player who replaces all those things. It's about the squad offering solutions.

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon May 16, 2022 4:41 pm

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 4:36 pm
I think this is a bit like the 05/06 season, in that Sam had to find a solution to an aging Okocha and clearly couldn't just replace a world class midfielder like-for-like. He ended up bringing in Diouf and switching our play so the out-ball went wide more directly rather than through the centre into feet. We found solutions in the squad to losing what JJ gave us.

The team needs a regular, easy out-ball that we can hit when we want to hold the ball and relieve pressure. We need a player who can reliably attract multiple defenders to create space. We need someone who can carry the ball when there's no space to pass. We need someone who will win us free kicks in attacking areas. We need someone who can score goals from 20-odd yards when there's no space in the box.

I could go on. The reason Dapo should be seen as worth more than a lot of people seem to think is because he gives us so many of our "needs" in one package, whilst also being a diligent defender. Insane is right that it's unlikely to be one player who replaces all those things. It's about the squad offering solutions.
I get your point though Diouf came in the season before. So played two years in the team with Okocha.

Can we pull the Anelka trick and get Dapo to sign a new deal with a release clause in it?

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by GhostoftheBok » Mon May 16, 2022 4:45 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 4:41 pm
I get your point though Diouf came in the season before. So played two years in the team with Okocha.
Diouf's first season with us was a loan. We only got him in permanently in JJ's final season. It was in that second season that we started to really switch the play to Dioufy, which was what caused that falling out with Sam. JJ wanted to stay and felt he was being asked to play in a way that didn't suit him.

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by Prufrock » Mon May 16, 2022 6:31 pm

Part of the way we're getting around the difficulties of pressing high in a 352 is by getting the front two to run themselves daft and using options off the bench, so ideally we want four top line players up there. At the moment I think they're broadly Dad, Charles, Baka and Kacha (in rough order). Stockton would be a big upgrade on the latter two so that bit of the equation is a plus.

But agree that Dapo adds a lot more, and that we're unlikely to be able to replace him with one player. So would need to be decent money to allow us to bring in Stockton, a replacement for Daps, upgrade elsewhere to offset his loss, and contribute to running costs to be ideal. I'd think we're talking £3m+

Obviously life isn't ideal though. On the one hand he's got two more years, and seems a good egg unlikely to fully throw his toys out of the pram. On the other, we'd have the same issues next summer (hopefully but not certainly a division up) looking at a lot less cash.

Probably depends on how much FV need the cash to keep the lights on/ how much they want to gamble (not existentially, but in priorities) on going up.
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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by The_Gun » Mon May 16, 2022 6:38 pm

Can’t see there’d be much sense in signing Cole Stockton at this point. He’s 28, we’d need to pay a decent transfer fee, and we already have two centre forwards of starting quality.

If we sell Dapo on for good money it would be the first success for the trading model that the club are clearly looking to operate. Stockton doesn’t really fit that model at all - a big fee for someone with likely no resale value.

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by Worthy4England » Mon May 16, 2022 6:44 pm

Just going off "paper talk," they're mentioning £3m in connection with Scott (L1 Messi) Twine...If that was in any way accurate, do we think we'd get same for Dapo?

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by Harry Genshaw » Mon May 16, 2022 6:45 pm

The_Gun wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 6:38 pm
Can’t see there’d be much sense in signing Cole Stockton at this point. He’s 28, we’d need to pay a decent transfer fee, and we already have two centre forwards of starting quality.

If we sell Dapo on for good money it would be the first success for the trading model that the club are clearly looking to operate. Stockton doesn’t really fit that model at all - a big fee for someone with likely no resale value.
Aye, that's where I'm at. He's had a good season no doubt but I'm not fully convinced. Give me Bod, Charles or Baka any day.

Hope it doesn't happen but should Dapo go, I'd be looking at Sadlier as a direct replacement.
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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by GhostoftheBok » Mon May 16, 2022 6:58 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 6:44 pm
Just going off "paper talk," they're mentioning £3m in connection with Scott (L1 Messi) Twine...If that was in any way accurate, do we think we'd get same for Dapo?
No. He's not worth what Twine is worth. However, 3m for Twine seems low.

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by GhostoftheBok » Mon May 16, 2022 7:09 pm

I'm genuinely surprised by the number of people (here and elsewhere) saying they'd not want Stockton. I'd be surprised if he was a Bolton player any time soon, but given how Evatt is adapting our style he looks a very good fit for us now.

We've gone to two up front, with a proper striker and a link man who runs himself to bits. Having the option of Charles/Bod next to Stockton/Baka looks very inviting.

I completely agree with people saying he's at his peak value right now, so from a business angle you can argue against it; but from a playing one I struggle to see how getting a lad in who the manager rates and is banging in goals is anything other than a good thing.

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon May 16, 2022 8:50 pm

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 7:09 pm
I'm genuinely surprised by the number of people (here and elsewhere) saying they'd not want Stockton. I'd be surprised if he was a Bolton player any time soon, but given how Evatt is adapting our style he looks a very good fit for us now.

We've gone to two up front, with a proper striker and a link man who runs himself to bits. Having the option of Charles/Bod next to Stockton/Baka looks very inviting.

I completely agree with people saying he's at his peak value right now, so from a business angle you can argue against it; but from a playing one I struggle to see how getting a lad in who the manager rates and is banging in goals is anything other than a good thing.
I’d want him. I think he would change our game a bit. But imagine chucking balls into the box with him and Bod or Baka or Charles. It would be a formidable set of strikers. We’d win game simply through taking better half chances than the opposition.

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by irie Cee Bee » Mon May 16, 2022 9:12 pm

Add me to the like list. Stockton is a very dangerous player. Knows how to find space and deadly accurate with his shots. Imagine how many he would score in a side that creates chances. Dapo is not a Centre Forward so its not a like for like swap. Dapo is not a #10 either, and is trying to adopt to the system we play without wingers. Has done reasonably well in the position, but if he goes, and I hope he doesn't for less than 3 mill., a natural # 10 would be his replacement.

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Re: Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

Post by GhostoftheBok » Mon May 16, 2022 9:30 pm

I've been having a few transfer policy chats tonight, so excuse me if this is me repeating myself (I don't think I am), but I think what we'd need to get in to make up for the lack of Dapo is fairly similar to what we need anyway.

A central ball carrier, a goal scorer and a bit of quality who can play #10 or wide.

The question is, do we just have our targets set out regardless or do our targets change if we get some cash in? I suspect the former. So whilst we would need various things to replace Dapo, we need those things adding to the squad to reliably challenge for the title anyway. If those targets of ours don't change regardless of Dapo going or not we are, firstly, given very little reason to sell aside from money in the bank and, secondly, then just looking for a really good forward who can give us something a bit special.

So unless we're hanging around to see if Dapo goes before we sort our business out (we're not) does his going make a huge difference to this window, or does it just let us do more in January or next summer? Maybe it makes us able to make improved offers to our key targets, but will a Dapo deal be done in time to make a difference there?

Basically, is selling Dapo likely to help us this summer in the slightest? Seems unlikely.

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