Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:20 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:38 am
No - the decision is sign the player you want or don't because the risk factors don't suit you. Fck all to do with what any other team might do in relation to the player.

Of course with infinite money, you might sign a player to prevent him going to the competition, but I don't think we're in that waterpark.
Yeah but the reality is let’s say Evatt identifies a top target who has the best goal scoring record any team in this league can feasibly buy. He’s had one serious injury years ago.

Does a medical which he passes. Scans show light scarring round former injury which is normal but is noted by the medical staff in their report. Alongside the details of past injury.

Evatt then has to decide whether to sign said player or if he doesn’t know he’s off to Sunderland, Plymouth or a another rival to score the goals for them instead.

You know there is a history there. The injury is healed and recovered from but the joint isn’t perfect. However, many players of course are in this condition.

That’s the reality of decision making. Evatt has to decide based on that whether to sign the player or not.

Were the medics able to raise more doubt, for example that there appeared to be structural weakness round the joint or the scans showed something definitely amiss then obviously you can’t take the risk.

But we wouldn’t in that scenario. The problem is that in the first scenario I’ve painted which is common in footballers you are obviously taking a risk over and above someone who never has had surgery or recovery on the joint. But real world is that he’s the player the manager wants. And the exact risk is unquantifiable.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Prufrock » Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:24 pm

I'm lost as to who you think disagrees with any of that?!

It's a risk analysis. The more reliable info you can have the better, but there will only even be risk-based predictions and no guarantees.
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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Worthy4England » Fri Apr 29, 2022 4:17 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:24 pm
I'm lost as to who you think disagrees with any of that?!

It's a risk analysis. The more reliable info you can have the better, but there will only even be risk-based predictions and no guarantees.
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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Apr 29, 2022 5:10 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:24 pm
I'm lost as to who you think disagrees with any of that?!

It's a risk analysis. The more reliable info you can have the better, but there will only even be risk-based predictions and no guarantees.
I think the bit is that the vast majority of professional footballers will be more or less in the same risk bracket.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Worthy4England » Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:38 am

So when you say on another thread, Dempsey is "injury prone" you're not in any way suggesting that he has some sort of "higher" risk factor? Sorta pointless mentioning it, if that's the case, because there's nowt to suggest he'll ever pick up another injury!

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Mar » Sat Apr 30, 2022 5:32 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:38 am
So when you say on another thread, Dempsey is "injury prone" you're not in any way suggesting that he has some sort of "higher" risk factor? Sorta pointless mentioning it, if that's the case, because there's nowt to suggest he'll ever pick up another injury!
I'm sure a few of our players have that 'injury prone' tag associated with them. I'd suspect that given our focus on squad depth and rotation a lot of the risk gets mitigated. The players that aren't injury prone and can do the job are the ones snapped up by the bigger teams who have them on the radar. I suspect that Evatt is looking in pockets of the transfer window that allow us to punch above our weight and fit our playing style.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Worthy4England » Sat Apr 30, 2022 6:36 pm

Mar wrote:
Sat Apr 30, 2022 5:32 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:38 am
So when you say on another thread, Dempsey is "injury prone" you're not in any way suggesting that he has some sort of "higher" risk factor? Sorta pointless mentioning it, if that's the case, because there's nowt to suggest he'll ever pick up another injury!
I'm sure a few of our players have that 'injury prone' tag associated with them. I'd suspect that given our focus on squad depth and rotation a lot of the risk gets mitigated. The players that aren't injury prone and can do the job are the ones snapped up by the bigger teams who have them on the radar. I suspect that Evatt is looking in pockets of the transfer window that allow us to punch above our weight and fit our playing style.
That could be correct, mate. But if it is, it becomes a tougher call when bemoaning a high injury list...

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Mar » Sat Apr 30, 2022 7:04 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Apr 30, 2022 6:36 pm
Mar wrote:
Sat Apr 30, 2022 5:32 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:38 am
So when you say on another thread, Dempsey is "injury prone" you're not in any way suggesting that he has some sort of "higher" risk factor? Sorta pointless mentioning it, if that's the case, because there's nowt to suggest he'll ever pick up another injury!
I'm sure a few of our players have that 'injury prone' tag associated with them. I'd suspect that given our focus on squad depth and rotation a lot of the risk gets mitigated. The players that aren't injury prone and can do the job are the ones snapped up by the bigger teams who have them on the radar. I suspect that Evatt is looking in pockets of the transfer window that allow us to punch above our weight and fit our playing style.
That could be correct, mate. But if it is, it becomes a tougher call when bemoaning a high injury list...
Certainly. I figure we'd probably be looking at players that fit the system and quality on the cheap. Given the injury risk I suspect it lowers their overall wages and means less of a risk for the player long term if we manage to get squad rotation to consider their injury concerns. So many players over the years (not necessarily at Bolton) have come out and said that they have over done it for a team that its cost them long term.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:16 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:38 am
So when you say on another thread, Dempsey is "injury prone" you're not in any way suggesting that he has some sort of "higher" risk factor? Sorta pointless mentioning it, if that's the case, because there's nowt to suggest he'll ever pick up another injury!
If there was a sensible and identifiable risk on Dempsey we’d not have signed him would we?

He passed the medical tests and examinations. We signed him. He’s got injured.

You could look at his history and say he’s has injuries. But nobody knows how to translate that into meaningful risk. So they do a medical assessment with a full suite of tests, scans, look at reports of past injuries and look at any medical procedures and assess the outcomes and notes from those.

They then decide if said player is fit to sign or whether there is a demonstrable medical risk to signing them.

If there is we won’t sign them. If there isn’t we will.

After that it’s in the lap of the gods to some extent.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by officer_dibble » Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:16 pm

Dempseys been injured 4 times! I’m not convinced!

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Worthy4England » Sun May 01, 2022 12:48 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:16 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:38 am
So when you say on another thread, Dempsey is "injury prone" you're not in any way suggesting that he has some sort of "higher" risk factor? Sorta pointless mentioning it, if that's the case, because there's nowt to suggest he'll ever pick up another injury!
If there was a sensible and identifiable risk on Dempsey we’d not have signed him would we?

He passed the medical tests and examinations. We signed him. He’s got injured.

You could look at his history and say he’s has injuries. But nobody knows how to translate that into meaningful risk. So they do a medical assessment with a full suite of tests, scans, look at reports of past injuries and look at any medical procedures and assess the outcomes and notes from those.

They then decide if said player is fit to sign or whether there is a demonstrable medical risk to signing them.

If there is we won’t sign them. If there isn’t we will.

After that it’s in the lap of the gods to some extent.
Not that black and white. It's not for the medical department to say yes or no to the transfer completing, just to advise on the risk factors. As you said if we didn't sign a player, someone else might. We also might see doubts raised by a medical and still go ahead and buy, because whoever is pressing to buy, says "yes that's why he's £200k rather than £1.5m" Didn't van Nistlrooy fail his medical at OT? Arshavin? It was probably part and parcel of us signing Fortune on a 12 month contract...

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun May 01, 2022 8:17 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 12:48 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:16 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:38 am
So when you say on another thread, Dempsey is "injury prone" you're not in any way suggesting that he has some sort of "higher" risk factor? Sorta pointless mentioning it, if that's the case, because there's nowt to suggest he'll ever pick up another injury!
If there was a sensible and identifiable risk on Dempsey we’d not have signed him would we?

He passed the medical tests and examinations. We signed him. He’s got injured.

You could look at his history and say he’s has injuries. But nobody knows how to translate that into meaningful risk. So they do a medical assessment with a full suite of tests, scans, look at reports of past injuries and look at any medical procedures and assess the outcomes and notes from those.

They then decide if said player is fit to sign or whether there is a demonstrable medical risk to signing them.

If there is we won’t sign them. If there isn’t we will.

After that it’s in the lap of the gods to some extent.
Not that black and white. It's not for the medical department to say yes or no to the transfer completing, just to advise on the risk factors. As you said if we didn't sign a player, someone else might. We also might see doubts raised by a medical and still go ahead and buy, because whoever is pressing to buy, says "yes that's why he's £200k rather than £1.5m" Didn't van Nistlrooy fail his medical at OT? Arshavin? It was probably part and parcel of us signing Fortune on a 12 month contract...
I think the part where we diverge is that in a medical they do the full range of tests and scans and examine the sporting medical history. But in many cases there is no way to medically tell apart the risk because the scans are clear and joint movement is ok. And that’s where the majority lie.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Worthy4England » Sun May 01, 2022 9:16 am

Yes they will have medical history. Which isn't a test but is a factor in the decision. I have two identical players and one has a huge back catalogue and the other has none. I know which of the two I'd likely pick.

That's not a prediction of possible future injuries, because the previous injuries might be down to "doesn't know how to tackle" for example and you believe you can coach that in.

Scans may well reveal that Fossey has a clean bill of health at the point in time he has the medical, if that goes ahead, but I'd be very surprised if it didn't come up in conversation around how much Fulham might want for him.

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