Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:40 pm

^^ You don't think no transfer fee and a one year Contract mighta influenced the "yes" decision any? Not like we paid £8m and gave him 5 years is it?

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by GhostoftheBok » Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:56 pm

I find the "you can't predict it with complete accuracy and therefore it's utterly unpredictable" argument genuinely weird.

I mean, that's just not how anything in life actually works. No insurance industry would be able to function.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by GhostoftheBok » Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:24 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:16 pm
I don’t think we will go up unless we add to that area. We know Dempsey is injury prone. Sheehan is an unknown as to how he will come back. Plus neither will add the qualities we need to add into the side.
What does it mean to be "injury prone" if we can't say whether a player is more likely to get injuries than most?

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:25 pm

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:56 pm
I find the "you can't predict it with complete accuracy and therefore it's utterly unpredictable" argument genuinely weird.

I mean, that's just not how anything in life actually works. No insurance industry would be able to function.
I think you are overstating what can be done. You can as insurance would do say players with past significant injury records are higher risk. But that only takes you so far and reality is that most players have some period of significant injury. But predicting what happens after that is something nobody has managed yet. Otherwise teams would be able to be virtually injury free and yet nobody is.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:27 pm

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:24 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:16 pm
I don’t think we will go up unless we add to that area. We know Dempsey is injury prone. Sheehan is an unknown as to how he will come back. Plus neither will add the qualities we need to add into the side.
What does it mean to be "injury prone" if we can't say whether a player is more likely to get injuries than most?
Having a track record of injuries. It doesn’t necessarily mean he will continue in that vein.

But given you seem to be able to predict these things should we ditch Sheehan now or will he be fine? If it’s predictable then the club will make the right call and if he stays he won’t break down or be injured again.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by GhostoftheBok » Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:31 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:27 pm
Having a track record of injuries. It doesn’t necessarily mean he will continue in that vein.
You said Dempsey is injury prone so we need to add to midfield.

You're saying that wasn't you saying it was viewable as increased injury risk for next season?

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:43 pm

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:31 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:27 pm
Having a track record of injuries. It doesn’t necessarily mean he will continue in that vein.
You said Dempsey is injury prone so we need to add to midfield.

You're saying that wasn't you saying it was viewable as increased injury risk for next season?
Players that have a history of picking up frequent injuries of course have a higher risk of carrying on said behaviour.

But nobody can predict what happens with Sheehan now. That’s the point I’m making. You can’t predict all injuries, you can’t always use past behaviour. Ricardo Gardner had a very serious knee injury and recovered and played a long career thereafter. Holden had one and never managed to return properly. You, nor I could have predicted that at the time.

That’s what I’m saying. And even if we reduced risk by signing players who had never had an injury before the fact is that data isn’t comprehensive. Like saying you’ve never had a crash so you are by the data a better driver than someone else. But how much you read into that single data point will depend on what you want.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:43 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:25 pm
GhostoftheBok wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:56 pm
I find the "you can't predict it with complete accuracy and therefore it's utterly unpredictable" argument genuinely weird.

I mean, that's just not how anything in life actually works. No insurance industry would be able to function.
I think you are overstating what can be done. You can as insurance would do say players with past significant injury records are higher risk. But that only takes you so far and reality is that most players have some period of significant injury. But predicting what happens after that is something nobody has managed yet. Otherwise teams would be able to be virtually injury free and yet nobody is.
One serious injury and multiple on the same body part probably aren't the same...

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by GhostoftheBok » Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:44 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:43 pm
Players that have a history of picking up frequent injuries of course have a higher risk of carrying on said behaviour.

But nobody can predict what happens with Sheehan now. That’s the point I’m making. You can’t predict all injuries, you can’t always use past behaviour. Ricardo Gardner had a very serious knee injury and recovered and played a long career thereafter. Holden had one and never managed to return properly. You, nor I could have predicted that at the time.

That’s what I’m saying. And even if we reduced risk by signing players who had never had an injury before the fact is that data isn’t comprehensive. Like saying you’ve never had a crash so you are by the data a better driver than someone else. But how much you read into that single data point will depend on what you want.
So you're arguing a point that nobody has actually claimed? :conf:

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:48 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:27 pm
GhostoftheBok wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:24 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:16 pm
I don’t think we will go up unless we add to that area. We know Dempsey is injury prone. Sheehan is an unknown as to how he will come back. Plus neither will add the qualities we need to add into the side.
What does it mean to be "injury prone" if we can't say whether a player is more likely to get injuries than most?
Having a track record of injuries. It doesn’t necessarily mean he will continue in that vein.

But given you seem to be able to predict these things should we ditch Sheehan now or will he be fine? If it’s predictable then the club will make the right call and if he stays he won’t break down or be injured again.
It's not the first time Sheehan has done his ACL...

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:50 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:43 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:25 pm
GhostoftheBok wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:56 pm
I find the "you can't predict it with complete accuracy and therefore it's utterly unpredictable" argument genuinely weird.

I mean, that's just not how anything in life actually works. No insurance industry would be able to function.
I think you are overstating what can be done. You can as insurance would do say players with past significant injury records are higher risk. But that only takes you so far and reality is that most players have some period of significant injury. But predicting what happens after that is something nobody has managed yet. Otherwise teams would be able to be virtually injury free and yet nobody is.
One serious injury and multiple on the same body part probably aren't the same...
Well quite. And not all injuries are equal. Neither are all recoveries.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:52 pm

So if there were two Fossey's or two Sheehans available, one with their current medical records and one with no medical records, which ones would you buy?

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by sonicthewhite » Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:21 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:52 pm
So if there were two Fossey's or two Sheehans available, one with their current medical records and one with no medical records, which ones would you buy?
Both :D Just to be sure :lol:
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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:26 pm

sonicthewhite wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:21 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:52 pm
So if there were two Fossey's or two Sheehans available, one with their current medical records and one with no medical records, which ones would you buy?
Both :D Just to be sure :lol:
How many kettles have you got? 🤣

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by sonicthewhite » Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:56 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:26 pm
sonicthewhite wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:21 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:52 pm
So if there were two Fossey's or two Sheehans available, one with their current medical records and one with no medical records, which ones would you buy?
Both :D Just to be sure :lol:
How many kettles have you got? 🤣
Two :lol: Because one is injury prone :D
Age and treachery will always overcome youth and skill!

And the key to a result is a good :kettle:

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Prufrock » Thu Apr 28, 2022 10:08 pm

What on earth is happening?!

Obviously there are lots of injuries that are impossible to predict. But there are obviously some you can flag as higher risk.

No-one is suggesting for a second you can say with any certainty. And you're never going to give anyone a 0 or 100% chance.
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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:47 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:52 pm
So if there were two Fossey's or two Sheehans available, one with their current medical records and one with no medical records, which ones would you buy?
The choice is never that though. It’s take a player who has had some injuries but who your medical and physio team give a clean bill of health to in a medical assessment or don’t take them.

And the player is obviously someone as a club you rate and want. And if you don’t sign them someone else will.

That’s always the choice. Nobody would want to sign players who can’t pass a medical or have red flags raised during it. But bolton won’t be signing those players.

The choice is sign this player who has passed the medical but has some history or don’t.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Worthy4England » Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:11 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:47 am
Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:52 pm
So if there were two Fossey's or two Sheehans available, one with their current medical records and one with no medical records, which ones would you buy?
The choice is never that though. It’s take a player who has had some injuries but who your medical and physio team give a clean bill of health to in a medical assessment or don’t take them.

And the player is obviously someone as a club you rate and want. And if you don’t sign them someone else will.

That’s always the choice. Nobody would want to sign players who can’t pass a medical or have red flags raised during it. But bolton won’t be signing those players.

The choice is sign this player who has passed the medical but has some history or don’t.
When we signed Sheehan, he'd had one ACL, he's now had two. Assuming he was back and declared fit, I still don't think the decision if we were signing him this year is the same as last, regardless that his "recovery" is ostensibly complete...That could manifest in many ways even if we still sign him. We might offer a lower price (if there's a transfer fee), we might offer a shorter contract etc. etc. Towards the end of Mavies' tenure, you might have even go "pay for play" as a mitigating action.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:28 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:11 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:47 am
Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:52 pm
So if there were two Fossey's or two Sheehans available, one with their current medical records and one with no medical records, which ones would you buy?
The choice is never that though. It’s take a player who has had some injuries but who your medical and physio team give a clean bill of health to in a medical assessment or don’t take them.

And the player is obviously someone as a club you rate and want. And if you don’t sign them someone else will.

That’s always the choice. Nobody would want to sign players who can’t pass a medical or have red flags raised during it. But bolton won’t be signing those players.

The choice is sign this player who has passed the medical but has some history or don’t.
When we signed Sheehan, he'd had one ACL, he's now had two. Assuming he was back and declared fit, I still don't think the decision if we were signing him this year is the same as last, regardless that his "recovery" is ostensibly complete...That could manifest in many ways even if we still sign him. We might offer a lower price (if there's a transfer fee), we might offer a shorter contract etc. etc. Towards the end of Mavies' tenure, you might have even go "pay for play" as a mitigating action.
I don’t disagree that these are factors in terms of costs and negotiations and indeed decision making.

But the fact is you do a full medical assessment on a player the manager wants. If there are problems he won’t be signed. If the medics say he’s ok, but x,y and z showed up you have a decision to make. But the decision is still as above. Sign the player you want or let someone else do it.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Worthy4England » Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:38 am

No - the decision is sign the player you want or don't because the risk factors don't suit you. Fck all to do with what any other team might do in relation to the player.

Of course with infinite money, you might sign a player to prevent him going to the competition, but I don't think we're in that waterpark.

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