Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

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Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by GhostoftheBok » Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:10 am

I've been trying to think of the best way to phrase the question for a while and when I was on a call with some football mates last night it came up as a topic. Bolton, they generally thought, were best placed to almost automatically improve next season due to the injury crisis that hit us this season and the impact it had; but with a note of caution that Bolton's squad contains an unusual number of players with concerning injury records.

The lads who've had significant issues that season include: Jones, Dempsey, Sheehan, Lee, Isgrove, Baka and Kachunga. That's about 1/3 of the permitted outfield players for next season and of those only Baka has no history of recurring injuries. Were Fossey to return, as it looks like he might, that's another in that camp.

So is it the case that we're almost automatically going to be better next season, or is it that we're quite likely to have another season blighted by injuries?

How do folk feel it will go?

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:44 am

A mix of the two. I think we will be better but Evatt wants high-energy football - out of possession with the press, and increasingly in possession. That inevitably leads to wear and tear. I think we have been unlucky with some injuries (eg Sheehan, arguably Foz) but to some extent, the harder you run the harder you fall.

I’m sure as we rise our sports science will improve and we may be able to afford less risky players, but I can’t see a time when we will have empty sick bays for months on end.

What we do have now is good strength in depth so we should be able to keep folks out of the red zone. This may lead to some controversial selections but the manager needs to explain that player x - let’s call him Josh Fossgrove - is missing this midweek match so he doesn’t miss six weeks.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:14 am

I don't doubt that the squad we have now, is overall better than the squad we came into the season with, so I think the "automatic improvement" bit depends to some extent, where you're measuring it from - much more marginal from Jan to season close than from season opener to Jan.

If you put down our "strongest" team without those players and work out who they'd replace, then you also need to consider what you're taking away vs what you're adding.

I think as DSB says what we have with all the "missing" available, is a bit more cover overall probably allowing for more rotation, which it's to be hoped keeps our glass canons intact, but if you're constantly covering for injury, then you lose the opportunity for rotation, because said glass canon is on the physio's bench....

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:18 am

I’d be interested in seeing analysis as to how our injuries genuinely compare to others. Are we doing something wrong, are we closer to the mean than we might think or is it just bad luck?

I’m not as convinced our injury situation was that far from average. But we don’t know.

I’d like to see more investment in the sports science side as I’m sure it’s something Evatt is keen on and as DSB says to support his game we need to consider what the requirements are for incoming players, squad depth and strike a balance between the team success and keeping individuals healthy and fit. I get the feeling Evatt would like more here and I think it’s an important and essential investment.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by brommers95 » Thu Apr 28, 2022 11:05 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:18 am
I’d be interested in seeing analysis as to how our injuries genuinely compare to others. Are we doing something wrong, are we closer to the mean than we might think or is it just bad luck?

I’m not as convinced our injury situation was that far from average. But we don’t know.

I’d like to see more investment in the sports science side as I’m sure it’s something Evatt is keen on and as DSB says to support his game we need to consider what the requirements are for incoming players, squad depth and strike a balance between the team success and keeping individuals healthy and fit. I get the feeling Evatt would like more here and I think it’s an important and essential investment.
This is something I’d be very interested in as well Insane. Would be a hell of a job to trawl back through all the injury reports of local journos for all 24 teams in the league for this season, but I might have to start a spreadsheet in preparation for measuring it next season.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by boltonboris » Thu Apr 28, 2022 11:44 am

I think next season, we will be in a MUCH better position to handle injuries - Since the window, we have not missed Sheehan (so much so that I forgot about him) and Fossey was mainly missed by the absence of the bereaved Jones. Dempsey looks decent, but he's down the pecking order a bit (for me), Lee is important, but we obviously have to account for him missing large chunks of the season and we have still picked up good results since his heel injury.

The squad looks fine and will still be improved upon.
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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Apr 28, 2022 12:56 pm

brommers95 wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 11:05 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:18 am
I’d be interested in seeing analysis as to how our injuries genuinely compare to others. Are we doing something wrong, are we closer to the mean than we might think or is it just bad luck?
This is something I’d be very interested in as well Insane. Would be a hell of a job to trawl back through all the injury reports of local journos for all 24 teams in the league for this season, but I might have to start a spreadsheet in preparation for measuring it next season.
There used to be a site called physioroom or injuryroom or something, dunno if it popped years ago. But I would think with online gambling / fantasy football that people will be keeping tabs. Transfermarkt also might have it somewhere, a lot of that site's best data is somewhat hidden.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 28, 2022 1:49 pm

boltonboris wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 11:44 am
I think next season, we will be in a MUCH better position to handle injuries - Since the window, we have not missed Sheehan (so much so that I forgot about him) and Fossey was mainly missed by the absence of the bereaved Jones. Dempsey looks decent, but he's down the pecking order a bit (for me), Lee is important, but we obviously have to account for him missing large chunks of the season and we have still picked up good results since his heel injury.

The squad looks fine and will still be improved upon.
Bizarrely enough we have a higher ppg return in the few since Fossey's injury than when he was in the team, but they're both pretty small samples...

In terms of Sheehan, if you assumed the "starting 3" were Dempsey, Morley and Lee, all fit or maybe an MJ on some games, would you get that much more out of Sheehan....I dunno...

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by TANGODANCER » Thu Apr 28, 2022 1:52 pm

Okay, get the stones, pitch-forks and bed sheets ready; I'll play the game, accepting it's nothing but that:

I'm really not dropping a Pyranha in the fish tank, but with the greatest respect for opinion, football knowledge (which I readily admit is currently greater than mine) and intelligence, maybe this thread should be titled : The Nostradamus encyclopedia of Soothsayers, Prophesiers and extra-sensory perception mind-readers incorporated"

Not even mentioning Covid, who could foresee mental health issues, heart attacks, diseases like the one that struck Stephen Darby, Fabrice Muamba and many other professional athletes, long term recurrences like Mark Davies and all the other inmates of the Quinton Fortune ward, and your everyday catalogue of bone-breaks, aches, pains, strains, tendons, cartilages and family issues that are part and parcel of life in general and sport in particular? Can these ever be accurately predicted?

In truth, short of a Lee Majors six million dollar, robot, Jason Bourne prescription and every sort of technology known to man, who can foresee from one week to the next why half-a-dozen of our own stars are unavailable right now, never mind in six months time? It just can't be done, more-so as nobody can even predict who will be a Wanderer by then? It would be wonderful if it could be done, but frankly.....

Tango beats a hasty retreat.... :oops:

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Apr 28, 2022 1:57 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 1:49 pm
boltonboris wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 11:44 am
I think next season, we will be in a MUCH better position to handle injuries - Since the window, we have not missed Sheehan (so much so that I forgot about him) and Fossey was mainly missed by the absence of the bereaved Jones. Dempsey looks decent, but he's down the pecking order a bit (for me), Lee is important, but we obviously have to account for him missing large chunks of the season and we have still picked up good results since his heel injury.

The squad looks fine and will still be improved upon.
Bizarrely enough we have a higher ppg return in the few since Fossey's injury than when he was in the team, but they're both pretty small samples...

In terms of Sheehan, if you assumed the "starting 3" were Dempsey, Morley and Lee, all fit or maybe an MJ on some games, would you get that much more out of Sheehan....I dunno...
I think Morley can pick up tips from Sheehan (and become a better player than him). He's already said he's learning from his old Dalemate MJ, on the 'other side' of football, but I think having Sheehan aroudn will do him good too - maybe more in training than the two together on the pitch, although we'll see on that. I wonder if Evatt might try Sheehan at 10 now he's got more quick thinkers around him.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by boltonboris » Thu Apr 28, 2022 2:44 pm

A good shout that - With more pace and physicality up front, Sheehan could prove more than useful and if we can add Fossey back in and have him bombing about, Sheehan can find him all day, every day, in advanced positions
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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Apr 28, 2022 3:07 pm

Sheehan at ten with more ahead of him sounds interesting. But if he’s there and Fossey is at right wing back where is Sadlier going? And this for me is the thing. Sadlier could be double figures from midfield for me next season. He’s not our best player. Nor our best midfield player. But he is the one I think who will score goals ala Nolan.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by boltonboris » Thu Apr 28, 2022 3:11 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 3:07 pm
Sheehan at ten with more ahead of him sounds interesting. But if he’s there and Fossey is at right wing back where is Sadlier going? And this for me is the thing. Sadlier could be double figures from midfield for me next season. He’s not our best player. Nor our best midfield player. But he is the one I think who will score goals ala Nolan.
There'll be times and places for both play regularly, or off the bench to have an impact - It's shaping up nicely. Sadlier does add a versatility that Sheehan probably doesn't, but there may also be games where we can play Sheehan (alongside another) in a deeper role and have him 'quarterbacking'
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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Prufrock » Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:28 pm

Sadlier RW, Fossey, RB, Sheehan 10 is an option.

Or a midfield three with a sitter, Sheehan high on the left, and legs as the third RCM to cover for Marlon.

But then no Gethin.

They're better problems to have than trying to figure out how to turn Delf, Thommo and Johnstone into a midfield, for sure.
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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by GhostoftheBok » Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:00 pm

Only 42 outfield players made 40 or more starts in League One last season. Depth and not being sure where everyone fits into an 11 is actively a good thing. It's a gruelling season.

Only 9 central mids made that list. I imagine Sheehan will get plenty of games.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by TANGODANCER » Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:30 pm

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:10 am

So is it the case that we're almost automatically going to be better next season, or is it that we're quite likely to have another season blighted by injuries? How do folk feel it will go?
See, this is the part of Ghost's post that jumped out at me and prompted my somewhat negative response, and what the thread seems to have wandered away from. . An added factor that isn't totally irrelevant is the amount of injuries caused by fouls and the effect that bad refereeing has on this. This is as unpredictable as Mike Riley voting us as his favourite team and we're still in a league where Physical Jerks doesn't necessarily refer to exercise. Dapo was named as the League's most fouled player. How long before one of those fouls is excessive? That plonker from Cheltenham last week, Freestone, seemed hell-bent on assault and battery, and he isn't alone. I'd love to think Ghost's former not latter option will be true, but it's still an unanswerable question. Hand's on and shirt-dragging together with mixed martial arts have all become part of the game it seems. Time for the Referees Association to look in its own mirror surely ?
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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by GhostoftheBok » Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:52 pm

TANGODANCER wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:30 pm
See, this is the part of Ghost's post that jumped out at me and prompted my somewhat negative response, and what the thread seems to have wandered away from. . An added factor that isn't totally irrelevant is the amount of injuries caused by fouls and the effect that bad refereeing has on this. This is as unpredictable as Mike Riley voting us as his favourite team and we're still in a league where Physical Jerks doesn't necessarily refer to exercise. Dapo was named as the League's most fouled player. How long before one of those fouls is excessive? That plonker from Cheltenham last week, Freestone, seemed hell-bent on assault and battery, and he isn't alone. I'd love to think Ghost's former not latter option will be true, but it's still an unanswerable question. Hand's on and shirt-dragging together with mixed martial arts have all become part of the game it seems. Time for the Referees Association to look in its own mirror surely ?
The majority of injuries in football are non-impact. Some players are demonstrably more susceptible to injury than others. You absolutely cannot say, "This player will get injured and this one won't." You absolutely can say "This player is more likely to miss games over a season than this one."

It's basically how all basic medical/life insurance works. Prior health is typically, but not always, an indicator of future health.

You can view it as gambling, but I'm not sure anyone would view it was weird to say Darren Anderton was more likely to miss games than Frank Lampard.

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:06 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 1:57 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 1:49 pm
boltonboris wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 11:44 am
I think next season, we will be in a MUCH better position to handle injuries - Since the window, we have not missed Sheehan (so much so that I forgot about him) and Fossey was mainly missed by the absence of the bereaved Jones. Dempsey looks decent, but he's down the pecking order a bit (for me), Lee is important, but we obviously have to account for him missing large chunks of the season and we have still picked up good results since his heel injury.

The squad looks fine and will still be improved upon.
Bizarrely enough we have a higher ppg return in the few since Fossey's injury than when he was in the team, but they're both pretty small samples...

In terms of Sheehan, if you assumed the "starting 3" were Dempsey, Morley and Lee, all fit or maybe an MJ on some games, would you get that much more out of Sheehan....I dunno...
I think Morley can pick up tips from Sheehan (and become a better player than him). He's already said he's learning from his old Dalemate MJ, on the 'other side' of football, but I think having Sheehan aroudn will do him good too - maybe more in training than the two together on the pitch, although we'll see on that. I wonder if Evatt might try Sheehan at 10 now he's got more quick thinkers around him.
Yessir, I think I might mentally have him down as a "maybe 10" rather than a "must be 6" :-) My comment was really about "are we automatically better" and I'm not sure Sheehan is a huge improvement on our post-Jan squad, rather than a good idea for squad rotation without losing anything much,,,so I'm not convinced some of the names make us automatically better as the people they'd replace are now better...The question for me is, if everyone is 100% fit would Sheehan automatically start. Honestly. I dunno...

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:07 pm

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:52 pm
TANGODANCER wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:30 pm
See, this is the part of Ghost's post that jumped out at me and prompted my somewhat negative response, and what the thread seems to have wandered away from. . An added factor that isn't totally irrelevant is the amount of injuries caused by fouls and the effect that bad refereeing has on this. This is as unpredictable as Mike Riley voting us as his favourite team and we're still in a league where Physical Jerks doesn't necessarily refer to exercise. Dapo was named as the League's most fouled player. How long before one of those fouls is excessive? That plonker from Cheltenham last week, Freestone, seemed hell-bent on assault and battery, and he isn't alone. I'd love to think Ghost's former not latter option will be true, but it's still an unanswerable question. Hand's on and shirt-dragging together with mixed martial arts have all become part of the game it seems. Time for the Referees Association to look in its own mirror surely ?
The majority of injuries in football are non-impact. Some players are demonstrably more susceptible to injury than others. You absolutely cannot say, "This player will get injured and this one won't." You absolutely can say "This player is more likely to miss games over a season than this one."

It's basically how all basic medical/life insurance works. Prior health is typically, but not always, an indicator of future health.

You can view it as gambling, but I'm not sure anyone would view it was weird to say Darren Anderton was more likely to miss games than Frank Lampard.
A grand comparison, and I know which I'd rather have in my squad! :-)

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Re: Natural Progression Or An Accident Waiting To Happen?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:21 pm

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:52 pm
TANGODANCER wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:30 pm
See, this is the part of Ghost's post that jumped out at me and prompted my somewhat negative response, and what the thread seems to have wandered away from. . An added factor that isn't totally irrelevant is the amount of injuries caused by fouls and the effect that bad refereeing has on this. This is as unpredictable as Mike Riley voting us as his favourite team and we're still in a league where Physical Jerks doesn't necessarily refer to exercise. Dapo was named as the League's most fouled player. How long before one of those fouls is excessive? That plonker from Cheltenham last week, Freestone, seemed hell-bent on assault and battery, and he isn't alone. I'd love to think Ghost's former not latter option will be true, but it's still an unanswerable question. Hand's on and shirt-dragging together with mixed martial arts have all become part of the game it seems. Time for the Referees Association to look in its own mirror surely ?
The majority of injuries in football are non-impact. Some players are demonstrably more susceptible to injury than others. You absolutely cannot say, "This player will get injured and this one won't." You absolutely can say "This player is more likely to miss games over a season than this one."

It's basically how all basic medical/life insurance works. Prior health is typically, but not always, an indicator of future health.

You can view it as gambling, but I'm not sure anyone would view it was weird to say Darren Anderton was more likely to miss games than Frank Lampard.
Some players have incredibly serious injuries and recover completely and have great careers. Some are dogged by them. If you can predict which any given player is then you should sell that ability because it’s worth billions.

Even Allardyces advanced medical team and sports science setup couldn’t always get it right, they couldn’t tell a Ricardo Gardner from a Fortune every time.

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